RUNNING BACK BREAKDOWN FOR DRAFT DAY (1-20)
1. ADRIAN PETERSON: Most people have him as the consensus #2 or #3 back to be drafted but I have to disagree. He has the 5th best schedule for his position and seems poised to see his work load bump up once again. Peterson's touches have dropped each of the last two years and though he averaged 4.6 YPC last season he actually was even better in 2008 when he had 80 carries more and averaged 4.8 YPC. With Ponder looking to take the role immediately you can bet AP will come close to those 2008 numbers or at minimal increase his touches and yardage from last season. Even with the Mcnabb talk, I still think Peterson sees major increase regardless.
2. DARREN MCFADDEN: This is probably not the one anyone expects to take here but he should be. Most analysis has C.J. or Foster going top two but both worry me big time based on off-season issues which I will get to once it's their turn. For starters, Mcfadden plays in a defensively challenged division and will once again be the feature of the offense. Zach Miller will most likely be re-signed and IF Jacoby Ford or a big FA signing can step up this year then McFadden may see even more day light. Mcfadden had a hell of year with zero help in the passing game last year and it can only get better. Mcfadden has the 8th best sched for his position and if he stays healthy will warrant a top two pick.
3. JAMAAL CHARLES: Charles moves up for two reasons, first he plays in the same defensively challenged division and also faces the 10th best SOS for his position. With teams like the Bills, Lions, and Colts in the first few weeks, Charles stands to get off to a quick start. Not only that, he is a big part of the passing game, collecting 469 yds with 3 TD's. Thomas Jones' role should diminish further this year, but he should play enough to keep Charles fresh. I see Charles also getting a few more looks in the red zone which Jones jacked last year. Charles YPC average was sick last year but in 2009 it was at a studly 5.8 YPC so don't look for too much of a drop off from last year. KC selected Jonathan Baldwin at WR to help Bowe which shows they are committed to mixing things up and keeping defenses off balance. This will only help Charles' cause since everyone knew it was Bowe or Charles on 80% of the plays.
4. LESEAN MCCOY: Here is a guy which could jump to elite status this year if current trends continue. He put up 9 games of 100 plus yards from scrimmage last year and the illusive Vick is just another weapon teams must worry about, making it nearly impossible to cover all bases. McCoy benefited from the Vick revival, posting 5.2 YPC and 10 TD's. Despite the 28th SOS at his position, McCoy will be one of the few backs where it really doesn't matter. He will see many running lanes and will improve on last years stats though about 10 TD's seems like about where he will stay given the plethora of scorers the Eagles have in the red zone.
5. MATT FORTE: Forte was only 170 plus yards off his 2008 rushing campaign last year despite getting 90 FEWER attempts! Even his YPC of 4.5 were a huge jump from 2008. Forte seems ready for an even better season, especially if the team brings in a serious #1 WR in FA. Forte is very involved in the pass game as well and averaged 10.7 YPR. Things can only get better for him this year as he faces the 7th SOS at his position. This is a guy currently going 10th in most drafts and will be a super value if you can get him that late. Given the CJ and Foster woes I see coming, to see Forte wind up as a top 3 back this year is not far from reality. He may be the best value pick in the draft.
6. PEYTON HILLIS: Despite having the 29th SOS at his position, Hillis is a horse and his number of touches and red zone opportunities make him a solid pick at 6th. Hillis has been in the league a few years and is the only reliable weapon the Browns have, so a sophomore slump in unlikely. If he can stay healthy, expect him to again post double digit TD's. He is a solid pass catcher as well and has the tools to continue on last year's breakout. If the Browns can add to the pass game via free agency to take some pressure off him, Hillis could be much more effective. He did taper off at the end of last season, going scoreless in his last 5 games, but expect the Browns to keep him fresh with the return of Hardesty whom will ease the load Hillis carried last year. The 4.4 YPC seems about right for a guy of his style, but the TD's could actually go up with him fresh and not taking as much punishment.
7. CHRIS JOHNSON: CJ should be higher and may wind up there but he has issues to overcome. First of course is the fact all signs point to Jake Locker taking the rock unless Tenn signs a veteran QB. Even then, the abbreviated off season gives a much shorter time for either QB to digest the playbook. A new coach, the Britt jailhouse saga, and a weakened defense all add up to a drop in CJ's production. I wouldn't be shocked to see him end up lower than this ranking. Remember last year where he had 5 yards total?? It would have been unthinkable in years past, but defenses have gotten savvy and this year the Titans have lost their leader and may lose Britt.
8. ARIAN FOSTER: A torn meniscus all season, Foster showed his heart and led all rushers. However, I don't see this as a good thing for him. First off, the tear could not have been too bad but at the same time, how much more damage did he cause to it and what is his current health status? Camp and preseason will show us but he is likely to take it quite easy leading up to a heavy work load for the season. Coaches will also want to limit his touches this year due to the injury and give him more rest than normal. Common thinking seems to be that if the guy had that season on a torn meniscus then what could he do healthy! We all know how these injuries affect every back differently and usually for the worse. Time will tell where he stands, but I'm not risking anything higher than a 5th pick on him this year. He has the 16th SOS for his position and had a much weaker schedule last year. Expect a slight decline at minimum for Arian.
9. RAY RICE: Despite getting 50+ more touches than in 2009, Rice saw major drops in production. Even with the extra load, Rice dropped 120 total yards and went from 5.3 YPC to 4.0 YPC and two fewer scores. He faces the 27th SOS at his position so things don't look like they will get too much better. He will be a solid pick but I don't see a big jump from last year. This spot seems like the most reasonable number for him and I would not go higher.
10. RASHARD MENDENHALL: Mendenhall a top ten back you ask? Can you really argue 1,273 Yards and 13 TD's last year? Yes it was partly due to Big Ben being on the shelf in the start of the season, but the Steelers are finally confident in using Mendenhall to set up the pass. If anything, I see him improving on last season with Ben starting week one. His production in the pass game jumped big time once Ben returned and added to his opportunities. Also, he faces the 13th SOS at his position this year which should keep him at least around the same numbers as last season. With so many questions below him (in my rankings) I believe this is the year youth and safer options win out. Especially in a shorter off season than normal.
11. MICHAEL TURNER: I would have him higher if it were not for Atlanta drafting Julio Jones this year. Jones stands to be a day 1 starter and has a solid QB throwing to him. Atlanta will do damage in the air this year and the team may want to keep Turner fresh and limit his touches a bit this year since he carried the ball 300+ last season. His red zone value will go up and he can possibly even improve on his 12 TD's last year. The NFC South has had issues with run defenses so turner will have 6 very nice games when in division. He has the ability to wind up as a top 5 when all is said and done, but I see Atlanta going more to the air this year.
12. FRANK GORE: Harbaugh says he plans on keeping Gore on the field as much as possible this year and if true, Gore could have one of his better seasons. That of course if he can somehow stay healthy all year. This is a guy with a grueling off-season workout schedule and a guy who preps year round. How much the injury affected him is yet to be seen and he should be much higher than this ranking but the questions on his health and his history have him a safe pick here.
13. MAURICE JONES DREW: As of July 2nd, MJD says he's about 85% healthy. This is one of the guys I said last year looked like he was playing injured and it turned out to be true. (Pat, Pat) He thinks he can still carry the load, but Simms-Walker's departure and the unease at QB means more questions for MJD. He is a very big risk despite his talents and the load he has carried alone points to a back on the decline. His red zone opportunities keep him here as an early 2nd/late 1st round pick but if you're gonna take a risk it's better to go with a guy like Legarrette Blount or Ryan Matthews whom have more upside. His name will probably have him go higher but we really have no clue which MJD will show up week one. Draft him with caution and be sure to get two other reliable backs if you take him with your first pick.
14. STEVEN JACKSON: Jackson had a pretty solid season and will put up his normal numbers. The reason I place him at 14 though is two fold. First, his YPC of 3.8 is his career lowest and secondly, the Rams are clearly turning into a balance pass attack. The need to ride S. Jax has diminished with the play of QB Sam Bradford. However, if the Rams can continue upon their passing growth then it could open things up for Jackson even more. The biggest problem for he and the Rams is their scoring which ended up at 26th in the NFL. Jackson did get roughed up often last year and being the baller he is, fought through the injuries. The Rams are still at least one season away from making that jump and Jackson's value is the biggest casualty.
15. LEGARRETTE BLOUNT: There may be some more appealing names to put at 15 but Blount is in a prime position to significantly build on last season. He will be the goal line back and will be kept fresh by again coming off the field on 3rd downs. He has the 20th ranked SOS, but teams will need to respect Freeman and the passing game which stands to get better than it was last season. Also keep in mind that Blount did not truly get the starting job until week 4 yet still rushed for over 1,000 yards and averaged 5 YPC. Cadillac Williams may be released this season and if the Bucs pass on a guy like Reggie Bush for 3rd down play then Blount may possibly see more time on the field.
16. RYAN MATHEWS: Mathews is a player whom could go either way. He scored 7 times in only 12 games but fumbled 4 times. The presence of Tolbert and his nose for the end zone also looks to eat into Mathews value if the Chargers use Tolbert in the same role as last year. The Chargers have been a pass first team and will have Floyd and V. Jackson along with Crayton all healthy for week 1 which wasn't the case last year. Antonio Gates should also be ready to go after an injury plagued season. Mathews is a risky play because of all the options this offense has but could produce good value as your #2 back since he has the #3 SOS.
17. SHONN GREENE: Like Mathews, we really have no clue what to expect from Greene. The Jets are saying Greene will be the primary ball carrier and LT says he's ready to be the 3rd down guy but they said the same thing last off-season and look how that turned out. He has the 4th ranked SOS for all running backs so the potential is there. The question is will he be the featured back and how effective will he be if he does get the job. The Jets stand to lose both Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards whom both played big roles in the pass game. This could only put more focus on the run game and make it even tougher on him. He is a high risk/ high reward guy to take at 17 but the fact the Jets love to run gives him good value.
18. JONATHAN STEWART: The likely departure of Deangelo Williams is a great sign for Stewart, but his constant injury issues and a very green rookie QB who has a shortened off-season are two big strikes against him. Not to mention Steve Smith may be a gonner as well. This team struggled last year to get anything going and the pieces are there to possibly have an even worse season. The Panthers will not score much this year and Stewart's value is limited. The only thing keeping him here is the possible large number of touches he stands to see.
19. CEDRICK BENSON: The Bengals will most likely re-sign Benson this year but with Carson likely gone as well as Chad Ochocinco, Benson will be the primary target of defenses. He had already shown a big drop in production last season and I believe well past the point of being able to be the spotlight of an offense. He does have the 14th ranked SOS, but look for B. Scott to eat into his touches as well which further drops Benson's value. Still, he's in a better situation from a job security standpoint than the backs left outside of the top 20.
20. KNOWSHON MORENO: His job is also safe for now and it's his pass catching ability that will buy him some time. The Broncos have a lot to sort out once camp starts but regardless of who starts at QB, the bottom line is that Moreno's inability to thrive with a great pass offense last year was disappointing. If Tebow starts this year it's going to put even more pressure on Moreno as teams will bring the heat until Tebow proves he can beat basic coverage. Moreno is a candidate to really exceed expectations, but we will have to wait and see how he responds and who wins the QB job in camp.
