Sunday, November 7, 2010

SUNDAY IN REVIEW

BUCCANEERS: One yard....The Bucs were one yard away from winning this game on the road, but Legarrette Blount missed the hole and chose a lane which led him into a chop tackle just short on 4th and 1. This team is still in the thick of things for the NFC South and showed poise on the road against the divisional leaders. Raheem Morris continues to allow Cadillac Williams the starters carries for the first two drives of every game and those are very significant tone setting carries which are being lost to Cadillac's ineffectiveness. Blount should be the lead back with Caddy as the 3rd down guy from here on out. The rush defense was better this week, but still allowed Turner 100 yards. Mike Williams is the guy you want most on this team, scoring once again and breaking a 52 yard TD on a ten yard pass. Blount has more favorable match ups coming and was simply a victim of a good rush defense. Aurellious Benn has emerged as the Bucs true #2 WR and is worth picking up off waivers in a keeper league while you can.

FALCONS: The Falcons defense held when it needed it most and escaped by a yard to cement themselves atop the NFC South. Roddy White went down with a knee injury in the first half but returned. This could be worth watching as he was largely ineffective and Ryan looked more to Gonzales and Jenkins. Matt Ryan seems to have found great comfort ability in the pocket but will be hindered if he loses White. His value is clearly tied to White's health and he should finish the second half of the year as a top ten QB if White is healthy.

DOLPHINS: Chad Henne continues the Jeykle and Hyde act as he tossed three picks and no TD's. Given it was against one of the NFL top defenses, but he is not a guy to trust as your starter. Brown had another good game, scoring with 59 yards rushing. He is trustworthy as a #2 RB but I would rather see him in a flex spot if you have better options. Brandon Marshall is a must start since you probably drafted him high but really is only safe as a WR 3 with amazing upside depending on Henne's day. The Dolphins are better plays at home stat wise but use caution on any other guys except Brown and Marshall.

RAVENS: The Ravens came out firing after the bye week. Ray Rice found his usual form rushing for 83 yards and receiving for 97 yards though he did not score. Derik Mason and Willis Mcgahee caught the only two TD passes. Boldin was kept in obscurity catching only 2 balls for 28 yards. The Ravens are one of the few teams that have lived up to the hype and have yet to really let down. Boldin and Rice are the studs, but I think Flacco and Mason are being very undervalued. Both guys are putting up solid numbers for their position and you should be able to get them for lower value than you would expect. If you have Mcgahee, trade him to upgrade or get depth at another position you need while his value is high this week. He is too sporadic to trust overall.

BEARS: While the Bears had a bye week to prepare for this game, they came out a bit flat, most likely due to the time off. It really doesn't matter since they get the win though. Cutler was only at about 55% but more importantly he didn't throw an interception. He seemed to manage his throws well and pick his spots. Forte had another ho-hum game on the ground getting 49 on 14 carries and not being a factor in the pass game. After a fast start, Forte has slowed a bit giving fantasy owners an average of 8 PPG. He still has great potential but faces the Vikings twice, the Jets, Philadelphia, and Miami on the road. Receiving wise, Earl Bennett had the catch this week but Knox is the only true threat overall. None of them are better than WR #3. Forte though should be considered a RB #2 due to schedule the rest of the way. He does have a good match vs Detroit but it gets tougher overall.

BILLS: Steve Johnson overcame a slow start to finish with 11 catches and 145 yards. He clearly is Fitzpatrick's favorite target and has been one of the safest WR plays this year. Fitzpatrick has also been a good start lately given his need to throw so much coming from behind every game. The Bills run game has come up short from being the lead attack expected, but were facing a tough run defense. They do have some favorable matches against Cleveland, Miami, and New England whom currently do not have the greatest rush defenses. However, all three teams seem to be improving vs the run and come week 14 could be tough opponents. Better to find options if you are in contention.

SAINTS: What looked to be a close one during the first quarter turned into an easy scrimmage game as the Saint defense knocked out both Matt Moore and Jonathan Stewart then make Clausen look just bad. The Saints got a win they needed as the NFC South is very up for grabs and should be until the final weeks. Lance Moore and Marques Colston are the only two to trust at WR as Meachem and Henderson continue to have bad statistical seasons. Both are drop worthy or trade bait if you can find any takers. While Betts got the start and the carries, it was Julius Jones who doubled his rushing total on half the carries with 68 yds. on 6 carries. The good news is that Bush should be back after the bye week and maybe Pierre Thomas will be close to returning. Thomas was almost traded to the Patriots this year and looks to have worn out his welcome with Sean Payton. Ivory and Bush are the best two options moving forward.

PANTHERS: I had the Panthers down as my upset of the week, but after two drives those thoughts were shattered by Matt Moore going down and then adding Jonathan Stewart to the injury list. After that it was an after thought. The question became how bad would the Panthers lose. No receiver came away with more than 22 yards and no RB with more than 41 yards. As Steve Smith said...it was pathetic. While Clausen looks in line to get the next start, Tony Pike came in an put up the same yardage on fewer throws and looked better overall. Steve Smith is officially no better than a flex play until he can develop continuity with a QB. Coach Fox needs to make a statement and roll with one guy for the rest of the year for the team's sake and start developing for next year. No Panther is trustworthy and Deangelo Williams will be hampered when he returns by a passing attack which scares nobody.

PATRIOTS: While I pegged Hernandez for a score as my sleeper, it was about all I had right in this game. Brady couldn't find a rhythm, the law firm went bankrupt, and Danny Woodhead led all players with 92 total yards. The Patriots were caught by a Browns defense which has gone under rated most the year. Coming off the bye allowed them extra time to scheme against the Pats short shot game and catch them off guard with some sneaky play calls. The Patriots simply had an off day but will look to get back on track next week. Hernandez is a solid TE #1 and Woodhead has clearly overtook Welker as that all purpose guy who racks up the yards. Brady however has fallen in value after losing Moss and is not the dependable monster you are used to expecting. If you can get name value for Welker do it. Green Ellis may have fallen short this week but has some good games coming up and is worth being patient with. Try and get him if you are weak at RB #2 or need a good flex play.

BROWNS: The Browns overwhelmed the Pats in a game that may have saved Mangini his job yet again. He wins the ones the shouldn't and loses everything else giving the perception he has potential. It was the same with the Jets until Woody realized this trend. The Browns have the talent and seem to be getting better, but will have to wait until next year before becoming serious contenders. McCoy is clearly the choice at QB so he can develop into the potential he is showing. Peyton Hillis is a monster, running for 184 and 2 scores as well as catching 3 for 36 yards. Massaquoi showed some relevance again and may have value moving forward as a reserve should one of your studs go down.

JETS: Mark Sanchez started off a bit rusty but gained composure and took control of the pocket as time went on, eventually driving the Jet s to the Detroit 20 with two minutes left for the game winning field goal. The bigger concern here is what is going on with the Jets run game? This was a game primed for the Jets backs to have success yet neither reached more than 55 yards on the ground. This is the second game where the run game has come short of expectations and while you are not going to move LT anywhere, it may cause you to lower expectations just a bit. I have been a firm believer that as the season wares on, LT will slow a bit and we will see Greene a bit more. Greene was featured more towards the end of this game and this could be a sign of things to come. Santonio and Braylon each continue to give fantasy numbers worthy of #2 and 3 guys and should be trusted moving ahead. Given the schedule coming up, Sanchez may also be a good play for the next three weeks if your starter has a bye or some really bad match ups.

LIONS: At this point either Stafford has a bum shoulder and needs to sit out the rest of the year or the Detroit medical staff is the worst. Either way, Stafford will only be able to afford so much scar tissue before it limits his career. Bench him since the season is mostly shot at this point and let him fully heal and prepare for the long term. He has amazing potential but it's worth nothing if he misses 5 games a year. I called Jhavid Best as a sleeper and he delivered with 88 yards. The Lions as a whole are playing good football, but the defense can't close in the 4th. There is much to be hopeful about but fantasy wise Calvin Johnson and Jhavid should be the only two guys you put in as starters. Megatron is the obvious start week in and out but he will fall to WR #2 as long as Stafford misses time. As long as Best is healthy he will continue to rack up yardage and you can depend on about 70 YPG. While it may not be spectacular, it should be consistent production and more than you can rely on compared to higher picks like Ryan Mathews, Shonn Greene, or Deangelo Williams.

CHARGERS: Phillip Rivers is undoubtedly the best QB in football right now. While it was the worse secondary in the NFL, Rives threw 4 TD's without any of his star receivers, a stagnant run game, and came back from a 23-14 deficit to win. It will only get better for Rivers after the bye week when Vincent Jackson returns, Malcom Floyd should return as well as Naanee and Gates. Rivers also faces a favorable schedule after the bye making him all the more valuable. Ryan Mathews injured his ankle once again which only strengthens the case for Mike Tolbert being on your team. He has the most TD's out of the RB core and is a more durable back. Sit on your Chargers during the bye as it should only get better.

TEXANS: Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson were shut down by the top rated pass defense, making it the Arian Foster show. Foster ran for 127 yards and led all receivers with 70 yards. Foster is by far the best back in the NFL but the work load is worrisome. Every touch means another hit and in today's NFL that can be a slippery slope to tread. It's not like you would dream of trading the guy away, but if you own Foster you are most likely in playoff contention and should have some reserves just in case. He runs smart and does know how to avoid the big hits, but it should be a valid strategy to have depth. Owen Daniels missed the game and if you own him it is time to seek other options.

CARDINALS: The Cards had this game until the last five minutes but it never really felt like they were winning. It was more a case of the Vikings offense beating itself, and it proved to be true as Favre led two scoring drives in five minutes to tie and eventually win. Fitztgerald did get his on 107 yards receiving but failed to reach the end zone. I liked Hightower more than Wells though neither was appealing and Hightower finished with a team leading 39 rush yards. Though Wells is the starter, Hightower brings a better ball control game and is more physical right now. Regardless, you won't feel comfortable using either of these two and need better options. Fitzgerald is a high end #2 as I've been saying and should be expected to give you around 10 PPG. That said, if the QB carousel can stop, Fitzgerald only faces one solid pass defense for the rest of the year including the playoffs.

VIKINGS: Now the work is Ziggy Wilf is still considering if he should release Childress. It's the only true option and needs to be done now while the team is still in contention. The fans and players hate the guy and think he is clueless. He questioned Percy Harvin's work ethic on Friday and Sunday he posted 126 receiving yards. Berrian was my sleeper and he came away with 89 yards. I had said not to panic on Harvin just yet and it will only get better. Sidney Rice warmed up before this game and could return next week. That will help this team and help Harvin find the end zone. Schiancoe's value will still be high regardless of Rice's return since it looks like Childress has figured out that him being involved means a more effective team. Pick up Rice from waivers now if he is available. The Vikes only have two tough pass defenses through the fantasy playoffs left.

GIANTS: Bradshaw and Jacobs flip flopped their roles this week, with Jacobs getting the yardage and Bradshaw getting the scores. The Giants came out rested and overwhelmed Whitehurst. Eli went to his favorite target Nicks often who finished with 126 yards and a score. Manningham and Smith had decent days, with Smith getting the TD but neither is a safe play every week because you really don't know which one will come out with the score. Jacobs is a trustworthy start depending on the match up and Bradshaw is a must start weekly. Eli and his receivers have a good schedule until the fantasy playoffs where he faces Min, Phi, and GB. All three will be challenges so if you have a solid back up or can trade for a QB/need player I would go for it. Sounds crazy, but if you are looking at getting in the playoffs with Eli as your guy it could be tough to expect production three weeks straight from him.

SEAHAWKS: So much for the Whitehurst hoopla. The Seahawks were not the healthiest group, but right now Hasselbeck gives them the best chance of winning as everyone saw on Sunday. The only player of note that produced anything significant was Marshawn Lynch who posted 48 yards. Lynch is the back you want on this team but is nothing more than a reserve. The Mike Williams bandwagon should also be unloaded and he should be traded while he carries some weight.

CHIEFS: Jamaal Charles delivered again on fewer touches than Jones and was also an impact in the pass game catching 5 balls for 47 yards and rushing for 53 yards to Jones' 32. Once again, Charles is the one you want on this team though both are starter worthy. Dwayne Bowe has continued his new found trust with Cassel, receiving for 63 yards and a score. Bowe has become a solid #2 WR and should be trustworthy as such for the rest of the year. The Chiefs have the best rushing schedule in the NFL and don't face a truly tough rush defense until the last week of the fantasy playoffs against Tennessee. Despite the loss, the Chiefs are still in the divisional race and will be playing hard. Moeaki should be in your line up every day despite the fact you probably have a better name on your squad. He is the Chief's second option in the pass game and should not be benched.

RAIDERS: After a bad first half which looked like KC would be in control, the Raiders regrouped and Jacoby Ford ate his Wheaties. Ford finished with 148 yards and was the only other player than Mcfadden to make a significant impact. He is worthy of a waiver pick up since he may have just earned himself starter time given Heyward-Bey's magic act week to week and Murphy's health. Oakland has a bye week coming and should have all it's receiving threats back so wait and see what Ford will do and how he will be used. Mcfadden and Miller are the two you can obviously trust but take a wait and see approach before you start anyone else despite this week's production. Besides, you'll probably forget Ford's performance after next week anyway.

COLTS: I tweeted it on the 4th and had him here as a sleeper. Javarris James didn't give you crazy yards but he did give you two scores if you had the balls to start him. Just when you think it's safe to play Garcon, he shows up for 15 yards on two catches. Both Tamme and Wayne had 11 receptions but Tamme had the score on a night where Peyton was hurried often and faced solid coverage. Tamme is another one I called the night of Clark's injury and has lived up to the label of being a Clark clone. As of now, Reggie Wayne is the safest play at the WR position. Garcon and Collie are interchangeable from week to week and the addition of Blair White only complicates things. Garcon has the most upside overall, but is only trust worthy as WR#3 or a flex.

EAGLES: Mike Vick returned right where he left off, rushing for 74 yards with 1 TD and passing for 218 with a score. Desean Jackson is his favorite target and returns to WR 1 status as long as he is healthy. McCoy had his best rushing day since week two, gaining 95 yards on 16 carries. Maclin had a quiet game, but Vick will find him like he did before the injury. The only true change from what you expected on this team is the total lack of production from Brent Celek. Celek had a hard enough time hooking up with Kolb who looked for him more often. Now with Vick, Celek is bench material. Given he was probably drafted as your TE #1, look for options on the wire.

COWBOYS: I've said previously that regardless of what Jerry Jones says, Wade Phillips will get the boot before seasons end. It looks like after the blow out in GB that Jones has softened his stance on not making moves as he stated he will be making changes. It starts with Phillips and has translated to the mentality of this team. The Cowboys have the talent, but they don't have the discipline needed. They need a coach who knows how best to use each individual's talent in given situations. Best to make the change now and use the rest of the year slowly implementing a new system under a new coach. Jason Garrett has always been the guy in waiting and the time is now. Still, Dez Bryant carries the most value on this team and is the only one you can trust to start every week. He faces weaker corner opposition than Austin, runs the routes in space, and has the speed to burn a defense. Austin continues to take a big hit without Kitna, but like Fitzgerald is a high end #2 with #1 potential. If you can hold Austin until the second week of the playoffs, he faces Washington and Arizona. Until then he faces some tougher opponents but will still produce, just not what you expected on draft day.

PACKERS: James Jones came up big again in relief of Donald Driver catching a TD on 123 yards. Jennings added 80 yards with a score and Brandon Jackson had one of his most productive days rushing for 42 and a score along with 26 receiving and a score. The Packers defense has gotten healthier and may be the fastest defense in the league. This is a defense that can win you games. Jones has evolved to a solid WR 3 but will have to be monitored since Driver has the extra week to heal with the bye. Brandon Jackson is a decent RB 2 start, but since you probably have better options could make great trade bait if you have holes on your team.


Thursday, November 4, 2010

FRIDAY GUT CHECK

A list of players who may have bad match ups, are back up or role guys, or are just plain having a bad year but feel good about this week. It's the guy you kick yourself in the ass about Sunday night cause you had a feeling but benched him.

MIKE TOLBERT SD: He is quietly a top 20 guy and has scored in five straight. Norv loves Mathews and is doing everything to get him going in two games before last week Tolbert averaged three carries but still had a score. He has become the Lendale White of two seasons ago. They face the Texans this week and may be down to Patrick Crayton as the only pass option with Gates hurt. Last week all three backs had a healthy amount of touches and I expect the same here. Tolbert should be good for a score and good yardage.

CEDRIC BENSON CIN: He faces the stellar Steeler run defense on Monday night. The Steelers have held everyone to minimal yardage and Benson is projected by most to have a 50 yard day at best. However, the Bengals will attack the weak secondary and throw it often. The Steelers will need to drop some LB's back leaving Benson with room since umlike other teams, the Bengals can make you pay vertically in single coverage. I say about 60 yards but he does score.

PATRICK CRAYTON SD: Gates may be out and while Crayton hasn't really done much with the opportunity, he is facing the horrible Texans secondary. He still has the speed to make teams pay, and the Texans should load the box trying to stop the Charger back field.

SHONN GREENE NYJ: He has been far less than great and is getting limited touches because of LT's great play. However, they face the dead last Lions rush defense and memories of his 111 yard game vs Buffalo come to mind. He should at minimum give you seven points and I think scores.

JONATHAN STEWART CAR: While he failed to produce much of anything last week as the starter, he has at least gotten his feet back. Unless Williams practices today, he again will get the nod vs New Orleans. This time he will be at home in a divisional game guys step up for. The Saints can be run on and Stewart won't come up short two weeks in a row. I see a score and about 60 yards.
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Tuesday, November 2, 2010

WEEK 9 PREVIEW

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS: BUCS: The Bucs have been road warriors this year, and look to continue their streak in Atlanta. They have found a running back in rookie Blount who pounded Arizona for 122 yards. This week Blount faces the Falcon's 6th ranked rush defense (ranking a bit inflated due to bye) but none the less their strong point on defense. The Bucs run attack has risen to 21st behind Blount after averaging under 3YPC before his emergence. The biggest benefit has been to the Bucs pass game which saw Freeman connect on a deep pass to Aurellios Benn last week. One of the very few. Freeman now faces Atlanta's 25th ranked pass defense which will force Atlanta to be unable to load up on Blount without getting burned. Despite the good rush Defense, Blount seems like a good play here as is Mike Williams whom leads the league in pass yards for WR's.
FALCONS: They are coming off a bye which I expect they had to adjust their planning from last week after watching Blount explode. I think in essence they lose the extra week advantage because of this and will play more of a Tampa 2 style in an effort to keep Blount in check while keeping Williams from burning them. Turner should be the focal point as the Bucs own the 30th ranked run defense. Roddy White should have some tough coverage against this 4th ranked pass defense, but the Bucs are known to allow one big deep ball due to youth in their safety position. Expect a good day from White but not a great one. The match up to watch will be Jenkins against Biggers. Jenkins should have a sleeper day here.

While I am a big fan of the bye week, the emergence of Blount will even things up here. Both teams play into each others strengths except for the Bucs pass game vs. Falcon secondary. In the end I think this is the difference maker. Turner will see a big day and eat the clock. This is a toss up in a game to decide who sits atop the NFC South. I am biased to the Bucs so will pick them though it is anyones game. BUCS 24-FALCONS 20

FANTASY STARTS: TB: Blount (16 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Freeman (270 yds. 2 TD) Williams (6 for 90 yds. 1 TD)
ATL: Turner (17 for 110 yds. 1 TD) White (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Jenkins ATL....He should have the good but young Biggers covering him while White is covered by Talib. Jenkins should be the main 3rd down target and has the ability to slip by the secondary who will be focused on White.

CHICAGO BEARS @ BUFFALO BILLS: BEARS: The bye came at a good time for the Bears after a sloppy outing vs the Skins which saw Cutler throw 4 picks to Hall. Now he faces the 3rd ranked pass defense which is ranked so because of their yardage allowance. We saw how Baltimore did with their weapons and I expect Cutler to have a good day if he has some protection. Forte should post his best game yet on the ground which will allow Cutler some throws. The question is if anyone other than Knox will show up. Buffalo should be able to cover him well, leaving Hester in space. The mentality of Matz has got to be run first this game. However Martz can be unpredictable and if he's patient will have success.
BILLS: The Bills run game has fallen a bit flat in recent weeks and now they face the Chicago 4th ranked rush attack. Luckily, the play of Fitzpatrick has offset the run game struggles and kept Buffalo within striking distance since he was handed the job. The Bears are 14th vs the pass and can be caught sleeping. Look for Buffalo to use the throw to set up running lanes. However, the Chicago LB core is made of some athletes whom are more than capable of confusing Fitz into mistakes. Buffalo may see a lot of blitz packages forcing Fitz to make throws he doesn't want to.

The Bears no doubt got back to basics during the bye and maybe even simplified things a bit for executions sake. The Bills face a running back who can burn them both ways and will be the difference. CHI 28-BUFF 17.

FANTASY STARTS: BEARS: Forte (12 for 70yds. 1 TD/ 6 for 50 yds. TD) Cutler (280 yds. 2 TD) Knox ( 5 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
BILLS: Jackson (13 for 50 yds. 1 TD) Johnson (6 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Evans (5 for 60 yds. 1 TD)

SLEEPER: Hester CHI...with the attention on Forte and Knox, Hester is left to run free in single coverage and burns them for his best game of the year.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS: PATS: The new Patriot offense is far from what it was pre Moss, but it has forced them into finding a running game that doesn't consist of a committee approach. The Pats have jumped to 16th in rushing behind Green Ellis who has scored two weeks straight in solid outings. The person hurt the most has been Wes Welker who has seen his numbers drop now that he is the focal point. Hopefully Brandon Tate's big game last week will be something he builds on. Cleveland ranks 21st vs the pass and 15th vs the run so both the run game and pass will be effective. Woodhead should have another good day and post double digits as will Hernandez .
BROWNS: Another team coming off the bye whom should be prepared but just outnumbered in the talent department. The Browns will be facing the Patriots 10th ranked rush defense and 28th pass defense. Hillis will not find much running room since it looks like Mccoy will get another start against a defense that is tough to read for even seasoned veterans. That and the lack of quality options in the pass game will make things easier for the Pats.

New England is coming off a big win against the Vikings and facing the "hoodie's" former pupil. No chance for Mangini here. NE 28-CLE 17.

FANTASY STARTS: NE: All your Pats should post good numbers and are all starter worthy. No news there.
CLE: Hillis (13 for 50 yds. 1 TD) Cribbs (5 for 40 yds/ 3 for 40 yds. 1 TD) Watson (6 for 70yds.)

SLEEPER: A. Hernandez NE: his numbers are growing steadily and Brady is trusting him. Look for his first score this week.

NY JETS @ DETROIT LIONS: JETS: Last week should be chalked up to just one of those days where they came out rusty and keep in mind were facing a defense close to their own. Sanchez faces a much better match up here against the Lions 17th pass defense, and that's their strong suit. The Jets have too many weapons for the Lions limited secondary and will find plenty of options. Especially since the Lions 24th rush defense will be busy chasing Tomlinson around the yard.
LIONS: The return of Stafford has rejuvenated this offense but he faces the Jet pass defense with a healthy Revis. To make matters worse, the Jets are 3rd in rush defense so Stafford will be forced to carry the load. Megatron vs Revis will be a great match up to watch, but it will be Pettigrew whom will find the most success in the middle of the field. Being Stafford's second game back he should show some rust mentally and will force some errant throws.

The Jets will take last weeks humbling loss out on the Lions. JETS 31-LIONS 17.

FANTASY STARTS: JETS: Tomlinson ( 15 for 70 yds. 1 TD/ 4 for 30 yds) Keller ( 4 for 50 yds. 1 TD) Holmes (5 for 80 yds 1 TD). Edwards ( 5 for 70yds) Sanchez (300yds. 2 TD)
LIONS: Johnson ( 7 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Pettigrew (5 for 50 yds. 1 TD)

SLEEPERS: Best DET/ Greene NYJ.....Best should see a ton of work out of the back field catching passes and should see room as the Jets focus on the main three pass options. Greene had great numbers against a similar defense in Buffalo and may see extra work if they are up big in the 4th.

ARIZONA CARDS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS: CARDS: Derik Anderson should get the start after a good performance overall but a late pick which cost them a potential win vs the Bucs. Hall could be back if Wisenhunt decides Hall just had an off day. Steve Breaston showed an immediate impact which opened things up for Fitzgerald who had one of his bettef games of the year. Regardless who is at QB, the Vikings are 8th in pass yards allowed and the Cards are 30th in passing. Beanie Wells will have a tough match up after being named the starter as he faces the Vikings 11th run defense. Fitzgerald will get his in this game though shouldn't post numbers too big. If Wells can somehow be effective it will open things up but it's a bit much to ask here.
VIKINGS: They are a team in as much disarray as any and will try to put it all behind them as they face an Arizona team ranked 19th and 28th against the pass and run respectively. Peterson will be asked to carry this team once again now that the Moss threat is gone and allows teams to focus in on Harvin. Berrian needs to earn his money here and has shown glimpses of becoming a factor in recent weeks but it was with Moss there and no pressure. Maybe the last few games got his confidence up and he can start becoming the deep threat they need. Look for Schiancoe's numbers to rise as he had games of 90 and 77 yards pre Moss with a score. He should be the main benefactor without Moss though both Harvin and Berrian have decent match ups too.

Peterson should control this defense and allow Favre to have a comfortable day in the pocket. Vikings get a win they desperately need. MIN 31-ARI 21.

FANTASY STARTS: ARI: Fitzgerald (7 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Wells (13 for 50 yds. 1 TD)
MIN: Peterson (17 for 110 yds. 2 TD) Schiancoe (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Harvin (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Favre (250 yds. 2 TD)

SLEEPER: Berrian MIN....while he has not produced, the ease of the run game here will have him see some single coverage and I think he has better confidence than before. He should see the end zone.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS: SAINTS: Brees and company have found a groove last two weeks and are coming off a solid win versus Pittsburgh. Meachem looks to be fairly reliable again and will only help make life easier for Colston. The problem lies in the run game where they rank 24th behind an unstable Chris Ivory who had a horrible game last week and saw Betts and Jones do no better. Brees faces the top rated Carolina pass defense so will have his work cut out for him. Bush seems to be a week away from full recovery but has an outside shot to return. Carolina ranks 18th vs the run and is what the Saints will need in order to win.
Expect Williams to return even if he isn't 100%. New Orleans is 22nd vs the run so there will be yards available. Matt Moore and Smith can expect typical low averages as the Saints rank 7th vs the pass.

New Orleans is very one dimensional now but good at what they can do. Here they go on the road vs a divisional foe who is great at shutting down passing teams....Upset of the week here as the Panthers have their best rush game to date and play small ball to beat the Saints. CAR 24-NO 21.

FANTASY STARTS: SAINTS: Ivory (14 for 60 yds.) Colston (6 for 70 yds) Moore (5 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Meachem (4 for 50 yds. 1 TD)
CAR: Williams (15 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Stewart (8 for 50 yds 1 TD) Smith ( 7 for 70 yds. 1 TD)

SLEEPER: Shockey NO....The Carolina secondary may be stout, but the Saints WR will have them stretched, allowing him to capitalize in open space.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS: MIAMI: The Dolphins continue to be a team that is unpredictable week to week but are hanging in there and getting plays when they need it. They are middle of the back in both rushing and passing and have to be a bit let down by the run game production this year. That said, both Brown and Williams had decent days last week and may be able to build off that. If Miami is going to win, it will be on the ground against the weakest part of Baltimore's defense which really isn't bad at 13th. Marshall should be held in check so look for guys like Fasano, Bess and Hartline to be more involved.
RAVENS: A bye week, a home game and maybe a healthy Mason add up for bad news if your a Dolphin fan. Though Miami is stout in run and pass D ranked 9th in both, Baltimore has many ways to beat a team. However, they too are about middle of the pack in both offensive categories and have a run game that has not been as great as expected. To their credit, they have faced some decent defenses and it gets no easier here. Ray Rice should be the one to do most damage as a pass catcher and like Miami it will be those secondary options who matter most in Heap and Housh.

This should be a closer game than most expect but the Ravens have had ample time to prepare and rest.
RAVENS 20-DOLPHINS 17.

FANTASY STARTS: MIA: Brown (14 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Williams (9 for 50 yds.) Fasano (4 for 65 yds. 1 TD)
BALT: Rice (16 for 65 yds./ 5 for 40 yds. 1 TD) Boldin (5 for 60 yds. 1 TD)

SLEEPER: Bess MIA...He is averaging 5 catches per game and has scored 3 times in seven games.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ HOUSTON TEXANS: SD: They got a much needed win and didn't seem too happy about it as they know their record should be much better. Buster Davis has been sent to IR leaving Rivers with Crayton and Gates. Floyd could possibly make it back this week but is doubtful. What Norv did figure out is the use of his backs as all chipped in using their strengths to each have solid fantasy production. Though they want Mathews to produce, this team realizes what Tolbert brings to the table and he has scored in five straight, out producing Mathew despite fewer touches. Look for Norv to employ a similar strategy this week as his WR's heal up. Tolbert is definitely start worthy depending on your options with the bye weeks. Especially against Houston's dead last pass defense. Sproles could have the most surprising game since he is a pure pass catcher able to run short routes.
TEXANS: Schaub and the Texans were torn up by the Colt pass game and face a short week awaiting the top passing offense to arrive. The Texans will rely on a heavy dose of Foster in order to keep the ball away from Rivers hands and control the clock. Kubiack has already stated there eill be more balance this week and will need to deliver on it as the Chargers are 11th vs the pass and 5th vs the run. However, the Chargers can be run on and have not seen their best moments against top Running Backs. Houston will need Jones to step it up here and make it harder for the Chargers to employ a cover 1 tactic.

This will be a tough game for both sides but the edge goes to the Chargers depth and defense.
SD 31-HOU 24.

FANTASY STARTS: SD: Rivers (320 yds. 3 TD) Mathews (11 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Tolbert (9 for 50 yds 1 TD) Gates ( 8 for 110 yds. 1 TD). Sproles ( 4 for 15 yds./ 6 for 55 yds. 1 TD)
HOU: Foster ( 17 for 90 yds. 1 TD). Johnson (6 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Jones (4 for 50 yds. 1 TD)

SLEEPER: O. Daniels HOU....the long forgotten man, Daniels seems to be getting his legs back under him and will be a key weapon as Johnson draws the attention on his side of the field.

NY GIANTS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: GIANTS: The Giants are coming off a bye and they needed it as they prepare to enter one of the harder places to win on the road. Expect the G men's 5th rated rush attack to come down after the bye which can work against this team whom was rolling. They face the Seattle rush defense ranked 8th and will have a tough time. However, now that Jacobs has found a role, he provides the depth needed to wear this defense down. Also they will have some things open up for them as Nicks runs wild against the Seattle 27th ranked secondary. One should help the other, giving Seattle fits and keeping the defense winded.
SEAHAWKS: Seattle lost on the road to Oakland and now come home to face an even better defense. The ranks are skewed due to the bye, but the Giants are 2nd vs the pass and the rush. Not good news for a team that thought they had found their lead back in Lynch whom was shut down vs Oakland. Their youth at WR and seeing Williams come back to earth last week unfortunately is a sign Seattle is over matched here.

The Giants defense turns out to be too over whelming. NYG 24-SEA 17.

FANTASY STARTS: NYG: Bradshaw (13 for 60 yds.) Jacobs (10 for 50 yds. 1 TD) Nicks (5 for 90 yds. 1 TD). Manningham (4 for 70 yds.) SEA: Forsett (10 for 45 yds./ 4 for 45 yds. 1 TD) Williams (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD)

SLEEPER: J. Carlson SEA....He will need to be a big part of moving the chains and is usually Hasselbecks pressure valve against top defenses.

KC CHIEFS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS: KC: The Chiefs coaching dream team has produced results and will be a key factor in this fight for the top. KC owns the only tandem of RB' s which are both starter worthy. KC is 2nd in rush offense and face Oaklands 29th ranked rush defense. While Oakland owns the 15th pass defense, they will be significantly hurt by Asomugha's ankle sprain which is expected to keep him out. Great news for Bowe who has been finding a report with Cassel, but I see Moeaki and Chambers as having better days since Oakland is bound to bring up help vs the run and leave a safety to focus on Bowe over top.
OAK: Mcfadden has been the highlight of this team, leading the Raiders to the top ranked rushing offense. However, the loss of Murphy hurts since KC is 20th vs the pass and not nearly as bad as Seattle. Heyward Bey will need to reproduce last week's numbers, especially since Miller was on crutches after the game. He should be ready Sunday but if he is even less than 100% it makes it much easier for KC to focus on Mcfadden.

The injuries for Oakland couldn't come at a worse time but this defense has been lights out as of late. If they can somehow shut down Charles and Jones they have a chance here. However, the KC defense has the easier job shutting down Mcfadden as they are 7th vs the run. KC 24-OAK 17.

FANTASY STARTS: KC: Charles (15 for 90 yds. 1 TD). Jones (11 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Bowe ( 5 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
OAK: McFadden (16 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Bush (9 for 40 yds. 1 TD) Heyward Bey (6 for 80 yds)

SLEEPER: Janikowski OAK....This could be a game where drive after drive comes up short and he kicks 6 FG. He's a great start if you have him.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: COLTS: The Colts came out of their revenge game in Houston winners but left with questions surrounding their run game. With Addai nursing an injured shoulder and Brown not close to 100%, Mike Hart was having a great outing and then left with an ankle injury which sounds as if it will keep him out this week. Brown couldn't even last the game so now it may boil down to Javvaris James. Not the best news as the Colts travel to Philly and face the Eagles 14th ranked rush defense. The Eagles are also 13th vs the pass and had an extra week to prep for Manning and his audibles. Losing any semblance of a run game makes things much harder for Manning who is working with Garcon and Gonzo whom just came back from injury and Wayne who has been dinged up a bit. Wayne should again be the focal point and Peyton has to be happy with how Tamme produced in his first game. Tamme has already made Clark's absence barely noticeable and is a solid play moving ahead. Manning will be throwing even more than normal this week.
EAGLES: Looks like Vick makes his return this week but he will find it a tough passing day against the Colts 5th ranked pass defense whom just held Matt Schaub in check. The good news is Vick will be able to use his feet as the Colts are 25th vs the run. With the bye week you can expect some success through the air as Vick will be well prepared and McCoy has now had an extra week to heal the rib which he says still isn't 100%. With the Colts secondary facing a rusty Desean Jackson, who is awaiting to be cleared to play but is no lock, they will be able to focus on Maclin and keep things in front of them. If ever there was a week for Celek to be more involved it's here as they will need a solid third option. If Jackson is not cleared, he becomes even more important in the pass game. McCoy should be featured in this game as the Eagles try to put together some time eating drives. Vick has value since he will be scrambling often from Freeney's pass rush.

The Colts are getting more confident but have not looked like the same team on the road this year. They are facing an Eagles defense rested and prepared for them coming off the bye while the Colts have a short week and have no answer at RB.....PHI 23-IND 21.

FANTASY STARTS: IND: Manning (320 yds. 3 TD) Wayne (6 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Garcon (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Tamme (4 for 50 yds. 1 TD)
EAGLES: Vick (180 yds. 1 TD/ 4 for 50 yds. 1 TD) McCoy (14 for 70 yds. 1 TD/ 4 for 35 yds.) Maclin (5 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Celek (5 for 60 yds.)

SLEEPER: Javarris James IND...this is a guy undreafted from Miami whom is similar to Hart. He is a hard runner who could surprise given there is no tape on him in a pro game.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ GB PACKERS: DAL: The Cowboys rallied around Kitna by making Jacksonville look like the Saints of last year. Kitna showed his rust and the run game failed to show up again. At this point, Phillips looks as if he has lost control. The defense has seemingly stopped playing after being on the field too often and will have it's hands full against the Packers 7th ranked pass offense. Dallas does catch a small break though with Driver ruling himself out. It will allow for some help with Gregg Jennings over the top, and Green Bay is only 19th in rush offense. If Kitna was rusty against the Jags, he should expect even more issues against a Green Bay defense that delivers constant pressure and is very opportunistic. The Packers do rank 27th vs the run so Jones and Barber could help make life easier if they are able to get away from Mathews. Look for Dallas to focus on the run game and simplify the pass game into short easy throws where Kitna can have success. Dez Bryant had a decent outing last week and should have an equal showing this week.
PACKERS: Dallas has been pretty good against the pass up till last week and sit at 10th, although that number is in good standing since they had an earlier bye week and actually played while Romo was active. Even with Jennings as their only threat, the Pack have depth with Jones and Quarless. Jones has been unreliable, but look for him to have a great game here. Quarless should also post solid numbers. Brandon Jackson has only really produced against the weaker defenses and faces a great match up here vs Dallas' 21st ranked rush defense. He is a good RB #2 start this week.

The Packers should be able to handle the Cowboys whom take to the road for the first time in three weeks with a QB making only his second start this year. GB 28- DAL 20.

FANTASY STARTS: DAL: Jones (14 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Bryant (5 for 70 yds.) Austin ( 7 for 90 yds. 1 TD)
GB: Jennings (6 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Jackson (15 for 85 yds. 1 TD) Quarless (5 for 50 yds. 1 TD) Jones (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD)

SLEEPER: Jordy Nelson GB...While has yet to score this year, Rogers seems to trust him and Jordy may take Jones' stats I have projected for him. Nelson is a speedy receiver with sure hands who may be that guy that finds a lot of open space this week.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS: STEELERS: The Steelers came back to earth and realized Ben was far from Superman. He faces a third tough pass defense this week in the Bengals who rank 12th vs the pass but is offset by their 20th rush defense. Mendenhall will carry the Steelers again much as last week in a game that is always closely contested between these two rivals. With Adam Jones out, Hines Ward should see a good number of targets. Mike Wallace should also be effective but the Bengals are good at not allowing the deep ball to burn them. Look for Ward to get the yardage here and Heath Miller to play a larger role than last week.
BENGALS: Nothing has gone right for them even when it does. Despite lucky bounces and their first opening drive score of the season last week, the Bengals found a way to lose to Miami at home. This week they face the top rush defense but a pass defense much more vulnerable. It will be on Carson to fix his accuracy issues and find that zip on the ball he has been lacking this year. The Bengals do well when Ocho is involved and look for them to do that since Benson will find it hard to deliver any substance of a run game. Both TO and Ocho should have big days as will Palmer, who I expect to throw about 40 times this week.

Though the Bengals are struggling, this is a rivalry, it's their second game at home and the Steelers are good prey against the pass. The question is if the Bengals defense can rise to the occasion. I think they do and pull out the upset. CIN 31-PIT 28.

FANTASY STARTS: PITT: Mendenhall (17 for 105 yds. 1 TD) Ward (8 for 110 yds. 1 TD) Miller (5 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Wallace (4 for 50 yds. 1 TD) Roethlisberger (270 yds. 2 TD)
CIN: Ochocinco (6 for 110 yds. 1 TD) T.O. (7 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Benson (13 for 40 yds. 1 TD)
Palmer (280 yds. 3 TD) Greisham (5 for 60 yds. 1 TD)

SLEEPER: J. Shipley CIN......Shipley is quickly becoming a guy Palmer trusts and looks to when the pressure is coming. Despite 15 fewer receptions, he has only 105 fewer yards than Ocho and is averaging 14.5 YPC which is best on the team. He could easily be the guy who has a better game than either or both Batman and Robin.
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The Randy Moss release

While I still wonder if there is a mutiny on Brad Childress' hands, today the picture became a bit clearer as to why he wants to release him. Allegedly, the team had a catered meal after practice which was done my a mom and pop's restaurant. The home grown owners prepared some BBQ which most of the team seemed to enjoy. Moss however allegedly said "What the Fuck is this? I wouldn't feed this to my dogs". He apparently made sure the restaurant owners and team could hear this, prompting embarrassment and Childress to say enough is enough.

While it is still a very stupid move in football terms, I give Childress huge props for putting decency and respect before talent. It's an issue we all experience but too many times the talent wins out because it means $$$$. Regardless, Childress will still lose most of the offense because they knew what they were getting when they signed him. So while it is a great moral move, it is still his fault to begin with. You don't walk up to a Lion in the zoo with a piece of steak then get pissed when he gnaws your leg off! From a management standpoint, Childress is all but gone. Look, Randy's reputation only gets further damaged from this and in the end it doesn't reflect on the team. It falls on his legacy. So keep the guy who gives you the best shot at winning and let him look like a scumbag. You've stood up and made him an example so that is enough to prove you are not an organization that accepts this kind of action. However, for those being asked to fund a new stadium, they will look at a team that makes poor personnel moves then takes a further loss by releasing players. Childress has already lost Favre and you can bet there are a number of guys he has lost already and will lose after waiving Moss.

Monday, November 1, 2010

Randy Moss release

While it has yet to officially hit the waiver wire, reports are that Childress notified the team Moss will be released. The reason I think it has yet to hit the wire though is because of a few things in my opinion. 1. Favre, Harvin, and Peterson must have serious reservations and are voicing them to ownership. Moss isn't the problem, the coach is. When all your star guys voice displeasure and probably threaten to shut it down, guess who's head will roll instead...Coach. 2. A release like this doesn't bode well for new stadium funding. 3. If Moss stays, then Childress not only loses the locker room, but he loses his job. Either way he now becomes a man alone and has no control.

If management is smart, they keep Moss and get rid of Childress. It is the only solution that makes sense for this team and I believe is the final solution. If Moss does indeed go, sell your Vikings now! We saw what kind of production we got from Favre and Harvin pre Moss and outside of Peterson it hurts their value. Harvin and Favre will still put up decent numbers, but sell while their value is high.

Sunday, October 31, 2010

SUNDAY IN REVIEW

BRONCOS: Denver tried to feature it's run game and get the defense to respect the run. Too bad it didn't work. Statistically, Moreno put up 40 on 11 carries, far from menacing and enough to get a defense on their heels. Orton focused in on Lloyd passing to him for 169 yards and a score. The Tebow chatter will only grow louder after losing to the 49ers under a QB making his first start. The criticism is misplaced however, since it is the banged up defense making Orton's job that much harder. Aside from that, no QB is going to be effective when defenses are able to sit back and not worry about the run. At this point, the Broncos might want to think about giving Tebow some carries out of the back field. If the Broncos are serious about putting the future in Tebow's hands, now would be the time to let him have a shot. Though they are not out of the divisional race, it will be a big uphill climb.

49ers: Who called a 49er win??? This guy did! I was probably the only one too. I watched Troy Smith in college and liked what I saw. His brief stint in Baltimore was also a good indication of what he could do. He was plagued by injury there, but the little we did see from him seemed hopeful. He can manage a game and his feet are a great secondary weapon. Say hello to SF new QB. I believe he is more a long term option than Smith ever could be. Expect more wins from this squad going ahead. SF simplified the offense and proves that sometimes in the NFL, coaches out think themselves when all you really need is execution on the basics. Troy Smith warrants a pick up if he isn't already taken.

JAGUARS: Gerrard continued his Jeykl and Hyde act this week throwing four TD passes after missing a week injured. This guy is a wild card every week and can't be depended on. If he can one day show some consistency then maybe we can consider him a starting option, but not until then. However, it was nice to see Mike Simms-Walker return to last years type game and hopefully this performance will force Gerrard to look at him more instead of checking down. Mercedes Lewis put up another great game and I said weeks ago to pick him up. This is a guy I drafted after hearing him say he spent the whole off season in Jacksonville just to work out with Gerrard. This is not a fluke! Pick him up and start him every game! MJD had his 3rd solid start in a row rushing for 135 and looks like he may be over his early season injury. Buy low on him if you still can.

COWBOYS: Bye Bye Wade Phillips...I've been saying that despite Jerry Jones' talk that Wade's job is safe, Jerry has to be ready to pull the trigger. The season is lost, your team has obviously stopped playing defense and nobody respects the head coach. They are jumping ship! Bring in Gruden or Cowher and let them start putting the pieces in place and developing this team. Think of it as an early training camp. When the real camp rolls around, these guys will know what the system is and be comfortable. Waiting for the inevitable will only make things harder. Make the change now. While Roy Williams had a down day, I still think he has the relationship with Kitna to have value. As does Austin whom I though would take a small hit because of Kitna's throw power. If you can, I would play it safe and get rid of your Cowboys while they still carry value. The writing is on the wall so don't wait until it hits you on the head. Trade em all.

DOLPHINS: I had both Williams and Brown as sleepers for this game so if you started them you should be happy as Brown gave you 6 points and Williams gave you 10. Not great, but sleeper value. The Dolphins continued to win ugly, not dazzling in any way but letting Carpenter kick five field goals. The defense is this teams savior and is what continues to keep them in games. Marshall is still fantasy start worthy, but after this game I would sell both Brown and Williams as high as you can. Let's face it, you will not feel comfortable starting them all year and you can get something decent for them this week.

BENGALS: Carson Palmer's days are officially numbered. He tried to force to many throws and again was dealing with accuracy issues. One of the passes to Owens should have been a pick but turned into a TD off deflection. After coming out strong to start the game, the Bengals crumbled and could not muster a come back. The defense is especially a problem since they are becoming proficient at letting teams get back into games. Benson racked up only 69 yards on 2o carries which doesn't really give me confidence in him at all. Benson is trade worthy as is Palmer. Palmer is still having value since he will be throwing often, but he can just as easily give you single digits as he can a 15-20 point day. Ocho and TO will be unreliable but when they have big days, like TO did today, expect them to be all or nothing. This will put fantasy owners in a bind, but unless you have a better option, they are worth a roll of the dice.

BILLS: Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson, and Johnson are the only three names you need to know. They are the only three consistent producers both on the field and for your fantasy team. The Bills couldn't get anything going this week yet were still in the game. This is a team that is just coming up short every week but has potential down the line. It's always just a few plays that make the difference for the Bills, and expect them to improve every week. Ironically, I think their struggles bode well for the three guys mentioned as they are what the offense is built around. If you play in a keeper league, these guys are of particular value since you probably got them for a steal and they will have value next year. Be patient, and the above three all are good plays depending on the match up.

CHIEFS: Hailey finally figured out that Jamaal Charles needs more carries and is giving it to them. He has also won both games since giving Charles lead back duties. Charles racked up 177 on the ground and 61 through the air. As I have said before, out of the two he is the one you want. Though Jones is no slouch and a solid #2 starter if you have them. Bowe caught another TD pass and his value is rising. Trade for him now while he will carry mid range value still. This should become a regular type of game for him and while he could have worse games happen, 10 points seems like what you can expect a game out of him.

REDSKINS: First off, I have been singing the praise for Anthony Armstrong who had another solid day and is Washington's main deep threat. He posted 92 yards on only 3 catches. Mcnabb spread the ball around to 7 different receivers since the run game could get nothing going. Moss and Cooley had mediocre days and as stated, Torain found nothing. Keiland Williams did put up better yardage on the ground though and may be an interesting situation moving ahead. The big news out of this game will be the benching of Mcnabb with 2 minutes left because Shanny believed Grossman had a better chance at scoring. Huh? You bring a guy in to bench him when you need him most? The Skins have a bye coming up and they seriously need to settle the coach vs. players issues.

LIONS: Another upset I picked, Stafford proved to be just what the Lions needed. Stafford threw for 4 TD's, and Megatron posted the big day I was expecting. Stafford has the arm and accuracy to take advantage of the weapons around him. The Lions win a few of those close loses in recent weeks if he were at QB. Moving ahead, Stafford has starting QB value and could quietly finish the second half as a top 12 QB in my opinion. CJ's value, Pettigrew, and Best all get a bump while he is in. The curious situation to watch here is that Kevin Smith received the same number of carries as Best. This could become a time share situation, but one offset by Best's pass catching numbers. Best is the one you want but if Smith continues to get equal carries, he could become fantasy relevant while eating into Best's value just a bit.

PANTHERS: This is a team I expected to win in St. Louis and instead they laid an egg behind 3 Matt Moore interceptions. Steve Smith's value obviously is back up after returning from injury last week, but like Fitzgerald in Arizona, his value has been hindered big time due to QB play. Smith is more a solid WR #2 play than the top ten guy we expect. Jonathan Stewart did little to take advantage of his opportunity and will most likely return to his back up role once Williams is healthy. At this point, all Panthers are trade bait. Use Smith's name value and decent game to upgrade weaker positions if you can.

RAMS: They continue to do it by chipping away at you moving the chains. They are doing it by playing defense fast and executing. I will pat myself on the back for calling out B. Gibson as a sleeper for the game, but other than his 67 yards, no Ram went over 60. These guys play well as a group, each man being efficient at his role on the field. The Rams continue to be one of the most exciting teams to watch and are on the right path to becoming serious contenders. Gibson warrants a pick up and should be a solid WR #3 if he can produce again next game. Otherwise, Jackson and Bradford should be guys you sit on and use.

PACKERS: Really not much to take from this game since it was one of those where they faced a great defense who were a perfect fit for the Packers strengths. Three field goals was all the scoring this game had. Keep an eye on Donald Driver's situation since this looks to be a bigger injury than what is being portrayed. No receiver other than Jennings is a safe play. Rogers likes to spread the ball around and so far nobody has cemented the #2 spot. Quarless still has the most upside if you are choosing between him or Lee.

JETS: People are quickly back on the Sanchez hate wagon, but as I said it was just one of those games. Don't jump ship yet as they were facing a defense every bit as good as theirs. Expect the Jets to come back strong next game. Shonn Greene continues to see minimal use and since like me he was probably taken as 2nd RB value it is time to look for options until LT goes down with an injury if that even happens. Hold him, but use any WR or QB depth you have to upgrade the position if you had him as your RB 2.

TITANS: Kenny Britt pulled up lame here and it looks to be a serious hammy pull which can take a speed guy like Britt a few weeks to heal up from. Since in all likely hood he was a waiver pick or low round pick, it shouldn't affect your team. Vince Young also went down with what appears to be an ankle issue but it seems like a sprain and nothing too serious. It will be another week of unknowns for Young owners so hopefully you have another QB not on a bye. Nate Washington stepped up for Britt and looked every bit as good. He will be the one you want moving ahead.

CHARGERS: Using a patch work of receivers, Rivers took advantage of his running backs, throwing to all three. As expected Gates was his main target and will continue to be until one of the starting WR core returns. Tolbert again out performed Mathews with fewer touches though both did get scores. This looks to be what to expect from here on out. Mathews will get the carries but Tolbert will get a good amount and make the best of them. Sproles has emerged as a threat again, though a minimal one. If you own Mathews or Tolbert he may be worth a pick up if you have room in case either of the two go down. Rivers continues to be a stud for fantasy regardless who he throws to and is having a top 3 year.

VIKINGS: Moss is starting to get unhappy and looked like he was ready to make out with Brady after the game. He has good reason since the Vikes are limiting his shots down field, but a big part of that is that teams are double teaming him. Harvin continues to be the beneficiary of this since he is finding more room under the secondary. Peterson has also benefited and continues to be AP game in and out. Favre went down with a chin laceration that took 10 stitches but don't dare start wondering anything about his availability. The Vikings needed this game but are somehow still in the hunt with the loss.

PATRIOTS: I expected Tate and Woodhead to deliver here but it was Tate that surpassed expectations and Woodhead who came under them. Woodhead did score and looks to have taken over what we expected from Welker this year. Maybe Welker is slowed by the knee or maybe Woodhead's versatility is the factor, but Welker should be replaced by Woodhead in your line up. The law firm has planted himself as the undoubted number 1 in New England as we are seeing the Patriots actually look readable for once as far as what guys you can depend on week to week. This could be the game Tate needed to get the confidence a rookie needs at the position and he can be depended on as a WR 3/ borderline 2.

BUCCANEERS: Blount, Blount, Blount. Tampa Bay has found a run game and it is paying off for Freeman, taking the load off of him and allowing the big down field plays. The Bucs have also found a good rotation of Spurlock and Benn at the X spot. The bigger news is how this defense is playing fast and attacking the ball. While there still are miscues in the secondary at times because of the lack of Safety experience, the Bucs are very opportunistic, forcing turnovers. They had 4 picks in this game, two returned for touchdowns. This is obviously a team I watched closely in preseason and could see the potential. I drafted them in fantasy, but they are surpassing even my expectations. Mike Williams continues his bid for ROY catching a TD on 105 yards. Blount ran for 120 yards for 2 scores and is the obvious choice at RB. Winslow on the other hand isn't close to last years numbers and should be a secondary option at best.

CARDINALS: The Cards broke down and continued the QB shuffle, benching Hall and giving Anderson another shot. Though Anderson did force two picks of his own, he looked much more efficient than Hall and led the Cards on solid drives. He should have earned himself at least a shot at being a starter next week but will most likely be back to his #2 role because of the faith the team has in Hall. Fitzgerald did get his as expected, and Beanie Wells did me good on picking him as a sleeper this week. Sell high on him if you can as he will be facing the Vikings, Seattle, and KC whom all pose solid run defenses. However, if you can afford to stash him on the bench and are in contention for the playoff's, he has a great three games then facing Denver, Carolina, and Dallas. Steve Breaston is also back and merits a look as a possible #3 guy depending on your starters opponents.

SEAHAWKS: Seattle could get nothing going against the Oakland defense and were blown off the ball play after play. Much like the Jets, it wasn't necessarily an indication of anything other than a bad day all teams can expect. Lynch did get the bigger number of carries but the run game was abandoned early due to the situation they were in. Once they were down it became awfully hard to pass against a solid Raider secondary. John Carlson didn't quite live up to the sleeper status I billed him for but was the leading receiver with 47 yards. I believe Carlson will be used more in the future so get him at a very low price if able. The back you want here is still Lynch, and his remaining schedule is a mixed bag that should provide good numbers moving ahead though not stellar numbers. He is trust worthy as a flex guy but if he is your #2 it may not be the best situation.

RAIDERS: This defense has found it's groove and are playing as aggressive as any unit in the NFL. Mcfadden continued to shine, posting 111 yards, and has elevated to #1 back status. Since he was taken at #3 back value in your draft, you should be sitting pretty with depth. Heyward Bey also finally broke out passing 100 yds. and a score but should not be counted on. Do not count on Campbell to be a trust worthy start weekly either. Past Mcfadden and Miller your Raiders should be used as bench and bye week fodder. The Oakland schedule gets a bit harder coming up as they will face KC, MIA, and PIT.

STEELERS: Another game I called, my thoughts on why they would lose proved right on as Ben did struggle facing a tough, fast, defense on the road for a second week. It's a loss caused more by his rust than anything else. Not much to be read into here. The Steeler offense will return to itself but a game like this was needed to get Ben sharp again and seeing different looks from a good defense. It's a growing type game both he and the team should grow from. Mendenhall had the best game rushing for 71 yards and a score so no news as to his value. Keep your Steelers and chalk it up to a game that was bound to happen.

SAINTS: The Saints pass game finally looked like the team we saw last year as Brees spread the ball to Meachem, Colston, and Moore effectively. The cause for concern comes in the back field where it was a committee approach. Ivory was not the lead back as expected, though no back really produced against the Steelers front seven. With Bush looking to return this week, expect Ivory's numbers to drop along with your expectations. If you can get something for him now is the time to do it. Wait on proclaiming Meachem back, but it was a great sign and could be a game that puts faith in Brees in looking for him more.

Saturday, October 30, 2010

SATURDAY ODDS and ENDS

Vernon Davis has a TD in 4 straight games. Denver and a new QB seem like a good combination to make it 5.

The Carolina Panthers haven't scored a defensive TD in 15 games.

The Bengals have not scored yet on an opening drive.

Buffalo defense is on pace to allow 500 pts. this season.

Ahmad Bradshaw is on pace for a 1,500 yard season.

Josh Freeman has a 91.3 passer rating in the 4th quarter. CB Ronde Barber plays his 200th game on Sunday.

The Texans are #1 in Red Zone offense.

The Dolphins are 3-0 on the road.

Brett Favre has a 93.3 passer rating against the Pats in 7 games.

Players who look to be out this week: Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Joseph Addai, Austin Collie, Louis Murphy, Denario Alexander, Malcom Floyd, Legadu Naanee,