Monday, November 22, 2010

WEEK 12 GAME/FANTASY PREVIEW

NE PATRIOTS @ DET LIONS: NE: Two weeks straight the Pats have rolled through two playoff caliber teams, dinking and dunking them to death. This may not be the Pats we expect but they are getting things done and executing. Thanksgiving will give them a lot to be thankful for as they face Detroit's 27th ranked rush defense. Detroit is decent vs the pass at 16 but Indianapolis was far better vs the pass and we saw how the Brady to Welker connection dismantled them. Green-Ellis will have a great day here and could see two scores given the ease the Pats will have moving the ball. Hernandez is back also and should see a score and find plenty of room.
DET: Jhavid Best's turf toe is getting worse and has him as a non factor since week four when he aggrivated it. Both he and Tony Scheffler whom will be nursing sore ribs, will be iffy plays on a very short week. Not good news against a Patriot run defense that has jumped to 17th with solid play the last few weeks. As always the Lions will be throwing often and though the Pats rank 31st vs the pass, they have been very opportunistic of late, picking off two of the better QB's in Roethlisberger and Manning on crucial drives. The Scheffler injury is good news for Pettigrew owners as he should see expanded work given the Best issues and the fact we could see Hill throw 40+ times.

The Pats will all but ignore the run game and drop extra guys back against the Detroit 6th pass offense. Pats easily win, NE 28-DET 20.

FANTASY STARTS: NE: Brady (280 yds. 3 TD) Green-Ellis (12 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Hernandez (3 for 45 yds. 1 TD) Welker ( 6 for 75 yds. 1 TD) Woodhead (80 total yards) Branch (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
DET: Pettigrew (5 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Johnson (6 for 85 yds. 1 TD) Burleson (4 for 50 yds.)
SLEEPER: Shaun Hill DET....He should be forced to throw from start to finish and while the Pats are bound to pick him off a few times, his big work load will produce yardage.
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NO SAINTS @ DAL COWBOYS: SAINTS: Had this game been scheduled two weeks ago we would look at the Dallas defense and expect a huge day, but Garrett has this 20th ranked pass defense and 22nd pass D playing inspired ball. The Saints really don't have many options even if Bush is back to 100% and will use their 2nd ranked pass offense often as usual. Colston seems to be hitting his stride the last few weeks and is emerging as Brees most trusted target. Given the Dallas strength at home and a whole new attitude, don't be surprised if Brees does struggle a bit and this game is closer than expectations. DAL: The Cowboys 4th ranked pass offense will face a stiffer challenge against the Saints 2nd ranked pass defense. The Saints can be run on effectively though so look for Felix Jones to be involved heavily as long as his hip issue isn't a problem. While the Saints do have a stout pass defense, they have yet to face a team with this many weapons on offense and will focus on taking Bryant out of the game if they can. Look for Roy Williams and Jones to see a lot of work because of coverages in the pass game. Dallas is playing their hearts out and this is a statement game at home. They will have plenty of mismatches as will the Saints so this one could be a high scoring shoot out. Dallas gets the upset, playing to the potential everyone expected of them this year. DAL 31-NO 28. FANTASY STARTS: NO: Brees (310 yds. 3 TD) Colston (6 for 95 yds. 1 TD) Moore (7 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Meachem (3 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Bush (70 total yards 1 TD) DAL: Jones (13 for 60 yds. 1 TD/ 4 for 40 yds.) Austin (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Bryant (4 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Williams (4 for 80 yds. 1 TD) SLEEPER: Witten DAL: while he has seen limited action recently, the Saints defense will be busy keeping all three wide outs in check leaving Witten with room. CIN BENGALS @ NY JETS: CIN: It can't get any worse for the Bengals, and you know it's bad when ego maniac T.O. says they all stink including him. Now they face the Jets whom are finding ways to beat everybody. While the Jets can be passed on, Cedric Benson will be up against the 5th ranked rush defense which is as fast as any he has seen. Benson only excells against weaker defenses and should have a quiet day. Palmer and his accuracy issues will face the 18th ranked pass defense, but the right side will all but be shut down by Revis. T.O. is the recipient of a trip to Revis island so we could see a lot of three wide sets that move him away from Revis. Ochocinco should see the most work of the two. NY JETS: Sanchez and the Jets seem to have a knack for pulling games out in the end and he should see plenty of time in the pocket since the Bengals have only 10 sacks on the year which is worst in the NFL. Odom does return for the Bengals, but it should mean very little against a secondary that allowed 3 TD passes to S. Johnson last week. LT and Greene have still been pretty quiet as of late but face the Bengals 23rd rush defense. The Jets simply have too many weapons for the Bengals to contain and Marvin Lewis is eyeing a similar fate as Chilly and Phillips. Jets hit the Bengals while they are down. NYJ 27-CIN 20. FANTASY STARTS: CIN: Ochocinco (5 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Shipley (6 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Owens (4 for 50 yds.) NYJ: Holmes (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) LT ( 15 for 80 yds 1 TD/ 4 for 50 yds) Edwards ( 3 for 50 yds. 1 TD) Keller (4 for 45 yds. 1 TD) SLEEPER: Greene NYJ....While he is seeing an increased work load, this one smells like it could be over by the third Q, leaving Greene to wear the Bengals down late. He could be in line for a TD here. GB PACKERS @ ATL FALCONS: GB: Green Bay has been the tip of the ice berg for two coaches jobs in successive weeks and now travel to Atlanta in what will be Atlanta's toughest test since they met the Steelers. Donald Driver looked good vs the Vikes and should be closer to the norm this week. Even better has been the play of James Jones whom now adds a third threat for Rogers and should be the big wild card in this game. The Falcons are 23rd vs the pass and if there is one thing the Pack can do well is pass. They are 10th in pass offense and should come out gunning since Jackson will see little room vs the Falcons 6th rush defense. Atlanta is +10 in turnover margin which explains a big part of their success. However, Rogers is good enough and accurate enough to avoid mistakes. ATL: The Falcons are one of the most offensively balanced teams, ranking 13 in passing and 7th in rushing. Where they will find most success is in the run game if Turner can get it going and sneak away from Matthews who has been in beast mode for the Packers. While the Pack are ranked 15th in passing D, Tremon Williams is one of the most under rated CB's and is just as solid a player as Woodson. Both White and Jenkins face some of the best coverage they have all year and it will be on Turner to force the Packers to bring another body up and give the WR's room. Look for the Falcons to get Turner involved very early and often. This will be one of the better games this weekend and will wind up a win for the Packers. Nobody has been able to contain Matthews and the Falcons have yet to face as balanced a defense this year. Rogers should be able to pick apart this secondary, forcing the Falcons to abandon the run game. GB 28-ATL 20. FANTASY STARTS: GB: Rogers (300 yds. 3 TD) Jennings ( 6 for 75 yds. 1 TD) Jones (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Driver ( 6 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Jackson (11 for 40 yds. 1 TD) ATL: Ryan (250 yds. 1 TD) White (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Jenkins (3 for 45 yds.) Turner (13 for 65 yds. 1 TD/ 4 for 45 yds.) SLEEPER: Gonzales ATL....He will be a boom or bust candidate this week given he should be asked to stay in more and help block Matthews. However, the Packers aggresive defense style could also allow him to slip out and see a field of green and a sneaky score. PIT STEELERS @ BUFF BILLS: PIT: The Steelers man handled the Raiders last week and now face an offense even weaker. On the defensive side, the Bills do have a good secondary ranked 9th and good at not allowing the long ball. But the Bills are 32nd vs the run and face the Steeler 11th rush offense behind Mendenhall. He should have an effective day here, but like most Bills opponents, the effectiveness of the run game will open lanes for Wallace and Ward to find the end zone when close. BUFF: The Bills have put two in a row together but let's face it, it was against two teams worse than they are. The Bills do have the talent to make this one interesting and we can expect another good fantasy day for Fitzpatrick since he will no doubt be throwing from start to finish. The Steelers own the top Rush defense in the NFL and have shut down better backs that Jackson. The Steelers are 25th vs the pass, so look for this to be the focus, making Jackson a possible bench candidate if you have options. The Steelers are tied for 2nd in sacks, so while they do allow the yardage, they can make it a long day if able to get penetration against a Bills offensive line that is weak. While Fitz and Johnson will put up points, it will be tempered by how well the line blocks for him. Unless the Steelers under estimate the Bills, this one goes as expected. PIT 24- BUF 17. FANTASY STARTS: PIT: Mendenhall (16 for 110 yds. 1 TD/ 2 for 20 yds.) Wallace (4 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Ward (6 for 70 yds. 1 TD) BUF: Fitzpatrick (280 yds. 2 TD) Johnson ( 6 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Evans ( 4 for 70 yds. 1 TD) SLEEPER: Miller PIT...He has been relegated to a fourth option on offense, but does pose some value here since the Bills Whitner can take away Ward from those short routes he runs making Miller the second option in the pass game. CAR PANTHERS @ CLE BROWNS: CAR: Everyone knows the Panthers are this years whipping boy and exactly what will happen at QB this week is anyones guess. Jonathan Stewarts status is still up in the air and with Goodson's second solid performance, look for him to be the offense against the Browns 21st rush defense. Cleveland is 22nd vs the pass, so there is a chance Steve Smith flirts with a score. CLE: While Carolina does own the 7th ranked pass defense, it may not be as much a factor since Delhomme looks to get the start vs his former team while McCoy nurses an ankle sprain. Nobody is sure to know the defense like Delhomme and Hillis should walk over the Carolina 24th run defense making Delhomme that much more effective even with his limited options. There really isn't much to debate here, it's a good team against the league worst. CLE 20- CAR 14. FANTASY STARTS: CAR: Goodson (17 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Smith ( 4 for 60 yds. 1 TD) CLE: Hillis (14 for 110 yds. 2 TD) Watson (5 for 80 yds.) SLEEPER: Stuckey CLE.....Delhomme is far from a gun slinger and if Carolina is effective at denying Watson, Stuckey becomes the primary target in the minimalist pass game. JACK JAGUARS @ NY GIANTS: JAC: Not that he was producing all that much, but Simms-Walker will be out a few weeks, and that boosts Osgood's value big time. Osgood immediately was effective last week and now is a sure fire guy Gerard will look to is Thomas is covered. This week though they face a stingy Giants secondary that ranks 4th. The G men are also 4th vs the run but have had issues against the top tier backs. The Giants are looking to return to their winning ways and Coughlin is a good bet to sell out and ensure MJD doesn't beat them. It will be on Gerrard to make it happen but does struggle on the road at times. NYG: The Giants also lost a receiver last week though theirs more costly. Hakeem Nicks is slated to miss three weeks which not only puts the Giants in a bind but your fantasy team as well. Three weeks plus one week for him to get back into the flow means he probably won't be reliable until the last week of the fantasy playoffs. What could have been a huge week vs the Jags 28th pass defense becomes a bit more even keeled. Regardless of the Bradshaw fumbles, he is their best runner and will be needed here since the Giants are running out of play makers. Jacksonville ranks 19th vs the run so look for a good Jacobs-Bradshaw split that tries to wear down the Jags. Anyone remember pre season stud Victor Cruz? Maybe this is where he gets his shot since the Giants are down to Manningham alone. Both teams are on equal footing but defense wins games, and the Jags are a one trick pony. The Giants contain MJD and win a low scorer. NYG 20- JAC 13. FANTASY STARTS: JAC: MJD (14 for 65 1 TD/4 for 25 yds) NYG: Manningham (6 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Bradshaw (11 for 65 yds.) Jacobs (13 for 70 yds. 1 TD) SLEEPER: V. Cruz NYG.....This guy was sensational in the preseason and did well vs starters as well, not just second teamers. He has speed to burn and this is a favorable match up for Coughlin to break him in. MIN VIKINGS @ WASH REDSKINS: MIN: Much like Phillips in Dallas, the players lost all respect for Childress a long time ago, finally prompting Wilf to fire him. Now comes Leslie Frazier and echos of Dallas begin to play. The team respects Frasier and what he's built with this defense. Expect him to allow Favre some room and to open things up a bit. Most likely he will try and pound Peterson of course, but something tells me he let's Favre loose. While not necessarily a good thing, it may make the Vikings a bit more unpredictable. This week they face one of the worst secondaries in Washington, ranked 29th. The Skins are equally as bad vs the rush, ranking 28th. All your Vikings make good plays this week and now with Rice getting a game under his belt he should get a score. WASH: The Skins stepped up on the road vs the Titans but will now face a tougher defense ranked 13th vs the pass and 7th vs the rush. Portis is officially out, leaving Torain and Williams as the options. Mcnabb should have some success through the air and it will be another big passing work load for him since the Washington run game ranks 22nd. Armstrong should be the fanatsy guy here since the Vikings are strong defending other top wide outs not named Jennings. The Vikings do their best Dallas impression and let loose on a sporadic Redskin team. MIN 28-WAS 20. FANTASY STARTS: MIN: All you players. Peterson has the highest scoring day of the bunch though. WAS: Williams (12 for 55 yds. 1 TD/4 for 40 yds.) Moss (4 for 60 yds.) Armstrong (5 for 85 yds. 1 TD) SLEEPER: Cooley WAS....He will be depended on heavily with Allen pressuring Mcnabb all day. TENN TITANS @ HOU TEXANS: TEN: Vince Young goes to the IR, shutting him down for the year in what may have been his final game as a Titan. Collins comes in and has the best possible opponent vs the Texans 32nd pass defense. This of all games should be Moss' day to score and Bo Scaife should also get fantasy love as well. The Texans are middle of the pack vs the run, but it's CJ and middle of the pack means a two score 100 yard day for him. All your Titans are starter worthy this week, pure and simple. HOU: Schaub seemed to suffer no set back on his knee this week and should post solid numbers vs the Titan 27th ranked secondary. The Titans are far better vs the run at 11th, but Foster has been a beast at home and is tough no matter who the opponent. The Titans do have a good front four and have applied solid pressure on QB's logging 30 sacks. No big deal for Schaub though since all he will need to do is lob the ball up to Andre Johnson who should return to his normal big days. This one goes to whoever can score that one last TD vs suspect secondaries. Since Collins is not as much of a deep threat thrower as Schaub, Texans get it. HOU 31-TEN 28. FANTASY STARTS: All your players in this game for either team. It should be a high scoring affair, spreading the double digit goodness. SLEEPER: Derik Ward HOU and Javon Ringer TEN....Both guys could see expanded time in relief of their lead backs whom will have heavy work loads. Ward has already scored in similar type games and while Ringer doesn'nt get a lot of touches, he makes the most of them here while Houston is on their heels. MIA DOLPHINS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS: MIA: After laying an egg last Thursday, the Dolphins get a chance to regroup and face an Oakland team that took a beating of their own in Pittsburgh. Oakland is 25th vs the run and we could see good days for both Brown and Williams. Sporano will likely go run heavy regardless since Marshall will be a questionable start and Thigpen was humbled last week. Look for Brown to see more action in the pass game as well with a return to a heavier use of the wildcat. OAK: Asumogha is believed to have a shot at playing this week but not much has been confirmed as of yet. Campbell is so far likely to get the start but regardless who is back there, the Miami 6th pass defense will be an issue. Like Miami, the Raiders should elect to go run heavy vs Miami's 20th rush defense. Ball control with middle safe route passing will be keys for both teams. Both teams are similar with their styles of play but Oakland has the more formidable ground game and has proven it. OAK-20-MIA 17. FANTASY STARTS: MIA: Brown (13 for 70 yds 1 TD/ 5 for 45 yds) Williams (11 for 55 yds.) Bess (5 for 60 yds.) Fasano (4 for 45 yds) Hartline (6 for 50 yds. 1 TD) OAK: McFadden (16 for 95 yds. 1 TD/3 for 40 yds.) Miller (4 for 55 yds. 1 TD) SLEEPER: J. Ford OAK....He was kept quiet vs the Steelers, but everybody was. Look for him to bounce back and have the better match up as Murphy deals with Vontae Davis. KC CHIEFS @ SEA SEAHAWKS: KC: Thomas Jones got back into the flow of things vs Arizona and Charles was also effective in limited duty since Jones had the hot hand. Seattle is 14th vs the run, but they will most likely be without their top CB Truffant (concussion) which will allow more options in the pass game. KC's weak secondary (24th) also gets a breather since it looks like Mike Williams will be out after hearing a pop in the bottom of his foot last week. Carrol isn't saying much, but it sounds serious so look for KC to be effective in the pass and use the ground game to keep a lead in the second half. Both backs will be solid plays once again. SEA: No Mike Williams will mean an expanded role for Butler and Carlon since Hasselbeck will be the key to scoring against the KC 24th pass defense. Lynch will have a tougher time vs the 12th rush defense of the Chiefs, leaving Forsett as the guy you want here because of his catch skills. Look for a heavy pass attack involving getting Forsett into space. Seattle lost it's top two guys at skill positions on both sides of the ball and KC gets the win in a hostile environment. KC 24-SEA 17. FANTASY STARTS: KC: Jones (15 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Charles (11 for 65 yds. 1 TD/ 3 for 40 yds.) Bowe ( 4 for 60 yds. 1 TD) SEA: Butler (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Forsett (9 for 40 yds./6 for 55 yds. 1 TD) SLEEPER: Carlson SEA....Carlson is about the only dependable option for Hasselbeck and could see a big day if the Hawks get down fast. PHI EAGLES @ CHI BEARS: PHI: Vick has now gone 220 passes without a pick which would have been unimaginable if we were not seeing it for ourselves. Both he and McCoy have also propelled the Eagles run game to 3rd in the NFL but now face a hot Bears team ranked 2nd vs the run and 12th vs the pass. Reid will look to test the secondary early and get McCoy some running room. CHI: Much like themselves, the Eagles are stout vs the run (8th) and 17th vs the pass. The Eagles will be without Assante Samuel, who helped this pass defense become respectable when he returned after missing time. Now without him, the Eagles face the threat of playing catch up for the first time since Vick has returned. Look for Martz to also test the secondary, but more out of need than want. Forte has been weak on the ground but has picked it up of late. Even with the run game getting a footing, it will be tough to find room here. The Bears defense seems to be hitting it's peak and they are as tough as can be at home. The Eagles have 19 picks on the year but missing Samuel will hurt, especially vs a pass happy Martz. Chicago wins a tough defensive game. CHI 20-PHI 17. FANTASY STARTS: PHI: Vick (260 yds. 2 TD/ 3 for 50 yds.) Jackson ( 4 for 89 yds. 1 TD) Maclin ( 5 for 70 yds.) McCoy (12 for 40 yds./ 5 for 55 yds.) CHI: Forte (10 for 40 yds./ 7 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Knox (5 for 65 yds. 1 TD) SLEEPER: Hester CHI...With focus placed on Knox and Forte, Olsen and Hester will be the ones with favorable match ups and opportunity to win those battles. Hester's special teams ability of course adds value, but he has been evolving the last few weeks and can get hot. STL RAMS @ DEN BRONCOS: RAMS: The defense let one go vs Atlanta and now the Rams who have road issues travel cross country to face a Denver team with steam to blow off after a poor Monday night showing. The Broncos are 26th vs the run and good vs the pass despite what we saw Monday so look for a heavy dose of Jackson. This could be one of those times where SJax has a career day in both rushing and receiving. Sproles and Tolbert each had great success in their roles, and SJax is both of them rolled into one. The Rams are 26th in pass offense and outside of Gibson have no decent deep option. Look for a ton of SJax with Amendola in short yardage situations. DEN: The Broncos run game fizzled once again after starting strong vs San Diego and the pass game wasn't much better. The Broncos were pressured often and Orton will see a similar type of defensive plan in the Rams. This will be another bad week for Moreno, as the Rams are 9th vs the run. The good new is that the Rams 21st ranked pass defense is just what Orton and company need after being shit down on Monday. We should see a return to the air show in this one and expect Orton to hit 300 here. While the Rams will make a good go at it early, the Broncos excell at the deep ball and it is too much for the Rams. DEN 28-STL 17. FANTASY STARTS: STL: Jackson (16 for 90 yds. 1 TD/6 for 55 yds. 1 TD) DEN: Orton (310 yds. 3 TD) Lloyd ( 7 for 95 yds. 1 TD) Gaffney ( 4 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Royal ( 6 for 70 yds. 1 TD) SLEEPER: Gibson STL....while not much is to be expected of him, the Broncos know if the Rams get to the red zone Bradford looks to Amendola and Bailey has the ability to keep him blanketed leaving Gibson with a possible short yard score.

Friday, November 19, 2010

FRIDAY GUT CHECK

A list of players who may have bad match ups, are lesser options or have not been productive but something in the gut says now is the time to start them. Last week...4 out of 5 due to Pennington getting hurt.

PIERRE GARCON IND....If you have him, you have no doubt been let down big time thinking each week is his week to break out. He is far from his draft value and for the most part has flex play value only. Even on good match up weeks he fails to produce and Manning seems to be in love with Tamme. This week comes the Patriots whom are weak vs the pass, but "The Hoodie" is proving just how great a coach he is by putting this team in contention in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year. He will scheme to stop Manning and defend the pass, but he can't cover all bases. Garcon has the ability and while the Pats focus on Wayne and Tamme, Garcon has one of his bigger games.

DONALD BROWN IND....Much like Garcon he's been a huge let down, and it is a big probability that objective one for the Pats will be stopping the pass. Manning is poised to have a field day against this young and vulnerable secondary so look for them to sell out vs the pass and allow plenty of running room for Brown. Like Garcon, this could be his best week.

DARREN MCFADDEN OAK....Benjarvis Green-Ellis rushed for 87 yards and caught for 30 last week vs this top rated rush defense whom have shut down runners all year. Oakland comes out of the bye fresh and you can bet they will try and mimic what the Patriots did to them last week. Oakland gets Murphy and possibly Miller back this week, so the Steelers will need to pay attention to those threats, especially if they get off to a quick start. Let's face it, you're probably starting Mcfadden anyway but the opponent is a tough one. He is the Raiders best weapon and Cable will find ways to get him the ball. This is the time of year when even great defenses start breaking down so Mcfadden exceeds expectations this week.

JHAVID BEST DET.....He hasn't broken double digit fantasy points since week 5 and continues to struggle with turf toe issues. He faces an inspired Dallas team in their house whom feel like they could beat anybody. Detroit loves to pass, and will take advantage of a banged up Dallas secondary. Dallas will also apply a ton of pressure, leaving Best able to flare out for plenty of pass catches. Dallas should effectively take Megatron out of the picture so look for Best to see plenty of work.

AURELLIOUS BENN TB....He has caught no more than 2 balls the last three weeks but has made the most of them, catching 2 TD's the last two weeks and coming inches from a third three weeks ago. WR Mike Williams was charged with a DUI last night though he should be fine to play pending an investigation and testing since he was under the legal limit but may have been high as a kite. Benn is quickly becoming Freeman's go to guy in the red zone and the last few weeks Williams has seen tighter coverage with teams doubling up on him at times. Look for Benn's role to grow each week and he carries even higher value as a pick up should Williams have to miss a game. Williams will face some tough coverage with Nate Clements this week leaving Benn with the better match ups.

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

WEEK 11 FANTASY/GAME PREVIEW

CHICAGO BEARS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS: Miami is crossed between Chad Henne or Tyler Thigpen as to who the starter will be and will most likely split reps this week. Seeing how Henne was benched for Pennington to start with, Thigpen should get the start. Thigpen brought more energy to the team and you could see the difference once he got the call. This should help Brandon Marshall's value since Thigpen won't be as hesitant to make thee throws. It will be on him as the Bears 2nd ranked rush defense will limit Brown and Williams who have found better footing the last few games but are still not what they were last year. The Bears are middle of the pack vs the pass and will focus on Marshall but don't have the depth to keep up with Hartline and Bess. If Thigpen is the call, also keep an eye on Fasano who you can bet will be looked to often. Thigpen loved Gonzo in KC and will do so here.
BEARS: Forte finally had a decent day on the ground and it showed what an effective Cutler can do when he limits turn overs. The Dolphins are 6th vs the pass behind Vontae Davis and will evvectively shut Knox out. Hester finally broke out of his slump last week but don't expect a reproduction here. Look for the Bears to use Forte in a similar fashion as they did vs Minnesota but bet on more pass catching. Gregg Olsen is another one who should see similar production to last week and will be the key to moving the chains. I've preached all year how when he is used the Bears play well and Martz may have finally figured that out.

Miami seems to love losing at home and the Bears should be confident. It's always easier to come into the game with no expectations than it is facing a team planning on you. Thigpen gets overwhelmed here and Bears win. CHI 23-MIA 17

FANTASY STARTS: CHI: Forte (15 for 70 yds. 1 TD/ 5 for 55 yds.) Olsen (5 for 65 yds. 1 TD)
MIA: Brown (14 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Fasano ( 6 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Hartline MIA....he always seems to get the sneaky TD against tough defenses.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS: BAL: The slow start hurt them and it affected their game plan. Atlanta has been one of the toughest teams to beat at home and were able to keep Baltimore from the big plays. Derik Mason stepped up despite being less than full speed and the Ravens gave you about what was expected overall. This week they get the team everyone hopes to face in Carolina whom has the worst pass offense in the NFL and is 24th in the run. Baltimore should have possession often and the Defense should be projected to be top scorers in fantasy this week in their category. Carolina does have the 5th ranked pass defense and is good at taking away your top WR, so expect Heap and Mason to have better days than normal. Boldin will get his, but the other two should see more targets. Ray Rice should have a field day vs this 27th ranked rush defense and will have one of his better days of the season.
CAR: The Panthers should wind up with Pike this week because they have limited options. Steve Smith is no better than a WR #3 and should be considered bench worthy if you have a better match up on your bench. Goodson did produce last week but it was vs the Bucs horrible rush defense and not Baltimore's 8th ranked D. The match up and possible return of Williams and Stewart make Goodson a bad play overall. Nobody on this team is worthy of a start unless you have to.
Baltimore might as well make golf course reservations if they lose this week. BAL 31- CAR 13.

FANTASY STARTS: BAL: Rice ( 17 for 90 yds. 1 TD/ 3 for 45 yds.) Boldin ( 4 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Mason ( 5 for 85 yds. 1 TD) Heap ( 3 for 50 yds. 1 TD) Flacco ( 290 yds. 3 TD)
CAR: Smith ( 4 for 50 yds.)

HOUSTON TEXANS @ NY JETS: HOU: The Texans are almost out of contention and it won't get any easier here. The offense has the play making ability but their league worst pass defense makes even the Jags look great. The Jets are 5th vs the run but can be beat through the air when staying away from Revis island. Revis' ability will allow the Jets to bring extra heat and force Schaub into checkdown and short routes since Johnson will have one of his tougher tests of the year. Foster will have a big day through the air along with either Jones or Walter who seems to have the hot hand. Though he will be lining up across from Cromartie, Walter has the ability to shake him. With Daniels status, expect to see a lot of three man sets to spread the field and allow Foster some room to sneak out in the flats. Keep an eye on Schaub's status after being in the hospital with bursa sac inflamation. (knee joint)
NYJ: Two overtime wins in two weeks behind Sanchez is boosting his confidence and he is using the weapons he has efficiently. He faces the easiest defense he's seen yet so it's a matter of how well the running game does which could limit monster game potential. Greene has slowly looked to be regaining that midseason form we saw last year and is running behind another older back this year. Don't be surprised to see Ryan limit Tomlinson's carries the next few weeks if Greene has a hot hand so that LT is fresh come playoff time. He's a good stash for your playoffs if this does happen. Houston is 15th vs the run so Greene may see extended use regardless if the Jets get up big.
Houston will keep this game closer than expected but come 4th quarter, as in most games, the defense will allow enough to get them beat. NYJ 28-HOU 21.

FANTASY STARTS: HOU: Johnson (4 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Foster (12 for 45 yds. 1 TD/ 6 for 65 yds) Walter (4 for 55 yds. 1 TD)
NYJ: Tomlinson (13 for 55 yds. 1 TD/ 3 for 25 yds) Edwards ( 5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Holmes (6 for 95 yds. 1 TD) Keller (5 for 55 yds.) Greene (11 for 60 yds.)
SLEEPER: J. Jones HOU....Walter loves to disappear after having good games and Jones may face the weakest of the Jets corners. He could wind up stealing Walter's numbers and more.

BUFFALO BILLS @ CINCINNATTI BENGALS: BUFF: The Bills got the monkey off their backs but now travel to Cinci where there is equal frustration but better talent. The Bills pass game has tapered off a bit and the absence of Parrish will allow teams to focus more on Johnson and Evans. The Bengals are 12th vs the pass and don't allow the big plays the Bills have had some success with down field. Fred Jackson comes off his biggest day of the year and will be the only guy in town until CJ Spiller recovers from what seems to be a serious injury. Jackson will post good numbers here vs the Bengal 22nd rush defense and should be good for a score or two. The Bills will ride him often this week if they want to keep this one close.
BENGALS: Cedric Benson should be able to shake his down year this week facing Buffalo's worst in the NFL rush D. Not only is this good news for him, but expect the passing game to be more effective as well as a result. The Bengals have lacked any serious run threat all year and it has allowed teams to sit back on Ocho and TO. The Bills do rank 7th vs the pass, but have been burned by the split end position all year which should be good news for Ocho provided his shoulder doesn't swell up on him this week. Carson Palmer has started to show it may be time to look for a QB and needs a solid game to get back on track.
The Bengals are almost at the point of playing for pride but have better talent and match up well here. CIN 24-BUFF 20.

FANTASY STARTS: BUFF: Jackson (16 for 85 yds. 1 TD/ 3 for 25 yds.) S. Johnson (6 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
CIN: Benson (16 for 95 yds. 1 TD) T.O. ( 6 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Ocho (4 for 90 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: B. Scott CIN...Buffalo has a knack for allowing second backs have productive fantasy days. Scott averages more YPC than Benson in limited duties and could be good for a score.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS: OAK: The Raiders face their first real test of the year on the road against the league's top rush defense. The Steelers have only allowed 4 rushing TD's all year and now they face Oakland's 2nd rush offense. The Raiders have had the extra bye week to prepare and get healthy for this one so this could be a better battle than expected. This should be a true test of where Oakland is since they have yet to face a defense as tough as this one. The Raiders needed the time off too, with Miller and Murphy both recouping from injury. So far, Murphy looks like the safest bet to play but the Raiders have found a gem possibly in Jacoby Ford. Oakland will need to get their 25th ranked pass game going and this should be the focus of their attack since Pittsburgh is 26th vs the pass. Look for Oakland to use the pass to set up the run and find creative ways to get Mcfadden into space. If Miller and Murphy return, the Steelers could have more than their secondary can handle. Look for Ford to be the go to guy until Miller and Murphy knock off the rust.
PITT: The pass game has slowly improved under Ben but it's been more a result of effectiveness than anything else. Not since New Orleans has Roethlisberger faced a pass defense like Oakland's #2 rated. Unlike the Raiders, the run game will help set up the pass since Oakland struggles with better backs. Another possible problem may be if Hines Ward is forced to take a game off after minor concussion. While he says he will be fine, the NFL has put pressure on teams to force testing before a player is cleared. Given how bad Ward will be needed, he will probably be given a green light. The guy to watch here will be Randle-El as well as Heath Miller. Oakland is good enough to limit Wallace and shut down Ward and will try to pressure Ben into errant throws. Thus leaving Miller and Randle-El beneficiaries of extra targets. Mendenhall will probably see more touches than normal and be the go to guy.

If all the Raiders are healthy this one should come down to the end in a low scoring affair but I will err on the side of the home team though an upset here would not suprise. PITT 20-OAK 17.

FANTASY STARTS: OAK: McFadden (12 for 50 yds./ 5 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Ford ( 4 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
PITT: Mendenhall ( 17 for 95 yds. 1 TD/ 3 for 25 yds.) Miller ( 5 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Wallace ( 3 for 60 yds.)
SLEEPERS: Randle-El PITT....as stated, he has been a surprise scorer as of late and is often the forgotten man from defenses. Look for a possible score catching Oakland off guard.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGS: BROWNS: Peyton Hillis has torn through every team he's faced regardless of how tough the defense. Things get easier here vs the Jags 21st rush Defense. While McCoy has had limited options, Ben Watson has been the only consistent pass threat and faces the Jags even worse pass defense ranked 29th. Look for Jacksonville to try it's best to limit Hillis this week and while it will be futile, it will continue to allow Watson room to run. Cleveland has only scored 7 passing TD's this year which ties them at the bottom but this is the week if ever they make it 8.
JAGS: Riding high after a last second Hail Mary answered, the Jags take on a Browns defense 24th vs the pass and 19th against the rush. MJD as always will be fed till he collapses but the Jags 27th pass game could find life after last week's heroics. Gerrard has actually been a consistent fantasy producer the last few weeks and it should continue here. Since Simms-Walker is an every other game producer and best at home, he should be the guy Gerrard tries to get going. Mercedes Lewis though continues to be the only trust worthy receiving option.

The Browns tend to lack a little on the road and match up well with the Jags. However, the Jags have MJD going full throttle of late and are a force when Gerrard is hot. No Josh Cribbs puts the Browns forcing longer drives with bad field position. JAGS 28-CLE 20.

FANTASY STARTS: CLE: Hillis (16 for 95 yds. 1 TD) Watson ( 6 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
JAGS: MJD (14 for 80 yds 1 TD./ 4 for 50 yds. 1 TD) Lewis (4 for 65yds. 1 TD) Simms Walker (5 for 80 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Chansi Stuckey CLE...he's done it with the Jets and has proven he can be a legit threat when given the call. This is his opportunity and he should make the most of it. He's also a savvy vet who is a purer WR than Cribbs. Look for a score here.

DETROIT LIONS @ DALLAS COWBOYS: DET: Shaun Hill continues to put up numbers but fall short of getting the wins. The Lions as a whole can manufacture yards but like Houston always find a way to allow teams the last shot. They are 7th in passing but Best and his 3.1 yards per carry have been bad enough that Kevin Smith has taken a good share of the carries away making it a time share. They face a Dallas secondary that has collapsed as of late, falling to 21st and is also 23rd vs the run. Garrett had this defense playing as fast as they have and beat an opponent far better last week. Dallas will continue to do what they do best which is throw the ball often. You can expect the normal numbers from your Lions, but I see Best as having a better game than normal through the air and scoring. Pettigrew will also be another threat once the Lions get to the red zone and seems to be Hill's favorite target where Stafford looked more for the long ball.
DAL: Felix Jones did it through his pass catching abilities last week and will do it on the ground this week against the Lions 26th rush defense. What was telling was how Garrett used his roster by putting them in a position to succeed based on their talents. Jones is clearly the back you want and has a decent playoff schedule so scoop him up if able. Look for Roy Williams to rebound against the Lions 17th ranked secondary  as well. Kitna doesn't have the arm to toss the long ball any more so Dez and Austin have been doing it with their run after the catch abilities. Roy is more of a intermediate route possession guy but should find room while the Lions are caught trying to cover the other weapons. Garrett's first home game as head coach should turn into a feast for your Cowboys. P.S. Back when Jerry was saying Phillips was safe and "his guy" I was saying it would turn out otherwise. Three weeks later....

Dallas gives the home crowd something to cheer about and there's nothing worse than a confident Cowboy team. DAL 34-DET 21.

FANTASY STARTS: DET: Johnson (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Pettigrew (4 for 50 yds. 1 TD) Best (11 for 45 yds./ 4 for 55 yds. 1 TD)
DAL: Jones (14 for 80 yards 1 TD/ 3 for 35 yds.) Austin (6 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Williams (4 for 50 yds. 1 TD) Bryant (6 for 85 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Barber DAL....Marion has scored in 3 straight games against the Lions and may see a goal line run since the Cowboys will be there often.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS: GB: The Pack had a bye week to rest Donald Driver's quad and prepare for a Vikings team that has all but packed it up after losing to the Bears. While the Vikings are 9th is pass defense, Rodgers and crew carry the 10th pass offense. The Vikings can be beat through the air and Rodgers proved it their last meeting throwing for 295 yards and 2 Touchdowns. Brandon Jackson was getting comfortable before the break and faces a Viking defense ranked 9th in this category as well. They are stronger vs the run regardless of ranking and though the bye may have helped Jackson rest his legs, the time off may have actually cooled him off a bit. Jackson did score last time out as well but seems to be averaging less than 60 YPG the last 4 games. Look for about the same here with maybe a little through the air. James Jones could also continue to get the reps here since he has been very productive and the Pack will want to ease Driver back into game play. This could be a changing of the guard game if Jones produces well again.
VIKINGS: Latest word is that Sidney Rice may be playing contract games and could possibly not play the rest of the season since his contract is up this year. The last thing he wants to do is re-injure himself and play in meaningless games so he may be wanting to take his chances in getting a contract next year based on last year. The Vikings do need him and could offer him some type of incentives if he does hit the field by dangling a contract offer sheet in front of him. The worries on Percy Harvin should be put to rest at this point as he has scored double digit points since Moss' departure. They are finding ways to get him the ball and despite a nagging ankle, has been able to produce come game time. What hurts this team most is their -11 giveaway/takeaway ratio caused mostly by Favre returning to being Favre this year. Berrian looks like he will be able to go after sitting out last week but hasn't really been a factor regardless. Schiancoe continues to get a big boost because of the lack of any options other than Harvin in the pass game. Green Bay is 20th vs the run so the Vikings will look to pound Peterson but the Packers are fast up front and will focus on stopping him since he was most their offense last meeting. Shiancoe and Harvin will see plenty of targets as will Peterson through the air.

Green Bay is clearly in better position to win this game, but the Vikings do play better at home and their backs are against the wall in a possible season ending game should they lose. While normally I am big on the bye week, the Vikings could just throw caution to the air and let it loose catching the Packers by surprise much like Washington did in week 5. Favre's added incentive to beat the Pack pays off. MIN 24-GB 21.

FANTASY STARTS: GB: Jennings (6 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Jackson (15 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Rodgers (250 yds. 2 TD)
MIN: Peterson (18 for 80 yds. 1 TD/ 5 for 45 yds) Shiancoe (5 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Harvin (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: J. Jones GB....The Vikings will limit Jennings and Jackson forcing Rodgers to look for Jones and Jordy Nelson. Their last meeting was Jones coming out party for the year where he caught 4 balls for 107 yards.

TAMPA BAY BUCS @ SF 49ERS: BUCS: The Bucs have jumped to the 19th ranked rush attack behind Legarrette Blount after ranking at the bottom to start the year. Another rookie, Aurellious Benn has emerged as a true number 2 threat at WR catching two TD passes in two games and almost catching one at Arizona but coming up inches short. He makes a good pick up if you need depth and his big size will make him a red zone target Freeman looks to. The Bucs now will face San Francisco whom have been hot of late but rank 20th in total pass yards allowed and 10th in rush yards allowed. The Bucs are still a team that leans more on the pass game and should have success here. Mike Williams makes a great play this week and though it will not be an easy one, Blount should be good for a score with average yards. Where the Bucs should thrive on pass defense. They have a 6th ranked pass defense and it will be QB Troy Smith's toughest match up yet. SF: Troy Smith's accuracy and confidence has sparked this offense and has them on a two game win streak. As stated though, this will be his first good pass defense faced and I expect him to struggle more than we've seen. Where the 49ers will excell is the ground game. The Bucs rank 31st vs the run and Frank Gore should have a field day. Expect to see a ton of Frank but lower expectations on all your other guys. This game should be as close as they come. The Bucs actually tend to play better on the road and are just as hot as SF. It's a coin flip pick but I see the Bucs ability to throw and move the ball being the difference. The Bucs are +5 in takeaways and lead in interceptions. BUCS 24-SF 23. FANTASY STARTS: TB: M. Williams (5 for 85 yds. 1 TD) Blount ( 14 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Freeman (250 yds. 2 TD's) Aurellious Benn (3 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Winslow (5 for 60 yds.) SF: Gore (15 for 90 yds. 1 TD/6 for 55 yds) Davis (6 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Crabtree (4 for 50 yds.) SLEEPER: Spurlock TB....He has contributed in the pass game recently and is also a threat at KR. Freeman does look for him in the red zone and has the speed to burn the Niner secondary.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ KC CHIEFS: ARI: The return of Steve Breaston has helped Fitzgerald open things up more and look a bit more like his old self. The Cards are still tied for the league worst 7 passing TD's and have been especially weak on the road. Anderson should continue to see the work at QB and has a good match up against KC's 22nd ranked pass defense which was gobbled up by Orton last week. Beanie Wells is a major issue for fantasy owners and should not be trusted as a start this week regardless of how good he says he is feeling. After we see him in a game then we can make decisions but any time there are knee issues it is time for concern. Hightower is the play here, but don't expect much from him either as KC is 13th vs the run. Yes, Moreno was effective last week, but when a defense is on it's heels the whole game it becomes easy for a running back. Arizona doesn't have the spread attack of Denver so temper your decisions if you're going based off last week's performance. The Chiefs are also one of the toughest teams to beat at home so consider that as well.
KC: The Chiefs have propelled themselves to 1st in rush offense behind the explosive Jamaal Charles and Hailey is finding ways to use him in the pass game as well. Charles is the guy you want but Thomas Jones continues to carry value against weaker teams as well as Arizona ranks 28th in rush defense. Both guys are great starts this week and should each see the end zone. Matt Cassel and Bowe will also produce vs Arizona's 27th ranked pass defense. Bowe has become Cassel's favorite target surpassing that roll Moeaki was holding in the beginning of the year. Moeaki still has value and scores here but the days of being top dog in targets seem long gone, especially with the Chief's schedule. Start all your Chiefs.

KC is tough at home and should be able to handle the Cardinals who find ways to lose on the road. KC 31- ARI 20.

FANTASY STARTS: ARI: Fitzgerald (7 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Breaston (5 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Hightower (15 for 60 yds.)
KC: Charles (13 for 80 yds. 1 TD/ 4 for 35 yds.) Jones (11 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Bowe (5 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Moeaki (4 for 50 yds. 1 TD) Cassel (225 yds. 2 TD)
SLEEPER: Chambers KC....He has been very quiet all season and faces a team that likes to give up points. While all the attention should go on Bowe, Chambers plays well at home and may be the recipient of a red zone look.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ TENNESSEE TITANS: WASH: No team in the NFL must feel as humbled as the Redskins after being blown up on national TV. The Mcnabb contract release didn't help matters as the criticism was flying even before kick off. Washington worked behind Keiland Williams who stepped in for Torain and had a great fantasy day. In reality, the Washington offense didn't play that poorly. It was the defense that simply allowed the Eagles and Vick to do whatever they wanted, making it hard for Mcnabb to be effective when a team knows you can do nothing but throw. Anthony Armstrong continues to be the most unknown prospect in football and has been actually more consistent than Santana Moss since getting the nod as the starter. The Titans have slid down the charts in defending the pass ranked 25th, so look for Mcnabb to silence his critics and throw the ball every chance he gets. They will have to since the Titans are 11th vs the run and could be relying on Williams once again and possibly Portis who thinks he will be good to go this week. Start your Redskin WR's since they should once again be playing catch up.
TITANS: The debut of Randy Moss was a recreation of what we saw in Minnesota and we saw Nate Washington play the role of Percy Harvin. Even Bo Scaife returned to fantasy life though it was minimal. As I said when the trade went down, CJ just somehow got better. That he did and he will find it increasingly easy now that teams can't stack the box without getting burned my Moss or Washington. Vince Young is the real winner in all of this and makes a great back up on your team because of his schedule and new Moss toy. This week he faces the 31st ranked pass defense and will find plenty of open targets. CJ will have another 100 plus yard day vs the Skins 25th rush defense. Fantasy utopia if you own any Titans.

The Titans play solid ball at home and Moss will finally have a week to work with Young and develop their timing. TEN 28-WASH 17.

FANTASY STARTS: WASH: Moss (5 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Armstrong (4 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Cooley (4 for 45 yds.) Williams (13 for 50 yds)
TENN: CJ (14 for 110 yds. 2 TD) Moss (3 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Washington (5 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Young (225 yds. 2 TD)
SLEEPER: J. Ringer TEN....While he hasn't done much with the carries he has received, this week presents a chance for him to be effective and may see extra work since CJ will be gassed after gashing this defense over and over again.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: SEA: Seattle beat up on Arizona last week, but it doesn't change the fact they can be too one dimensional at times and lack a serious rushing attack they can depend on. Mike Williams is a good bet for come back player of the year and has been the only real threat the Seahawks have. Lynch and Forsett have gone back to the committee approach since neither one has successfully sealed the starting gig. This week they face a Saints team ranked 25th vs the rush and will be called on to carry the offense since the Saints are tops in Pass defense. Hasselbeck should have a long day trying to throw against them and you can bet Carrol will have a run first mentality this week. Both Lynch and Forsett are good plays since Forsett will see plenty of pass catching targets and Lynch should find room to run down hill. Forsett gets the edge as a better fantasy play though since the Seahawks should be down and need to throw often in the second half.
NO: A Bye week and a team that ranks 28th vs the pass means plenty of scores for Brees and company. This week looks like the one Bush makes his return and it's a good one since he should be able to ease back into the flow of things after missing so much time. Ivory still carries good value so keep him stashed away. The team seems to be fed up with Pierre Thomas' slow rehab and it looks like Ivory will be their guy even when he returns. Seattle does rank 14th vs the run but it shouldn't matter much as the defense will be forced back on it's heels to keep this one from getting ugly.

NO is one of the best prepared teams in football on normal weeks. A bye only makes them that much more effective. NO 34- SEA 21

FANTASY STARTS: SEA: Lynch (14 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Forsett (9 for 40 yds./5 for 55 yds. 1 TD)
NO: All your Saints WR's and even Ivory whom could sneak in for a score and have some extra reps if NO gets up big. Wait on Bush since we don't know what his conditioning is and how much Peyton wants to use him in his first game back.
SLEEPER: Carlson SEA....Carlson should be the only guy to find much room against this tough pass D and Hasselbeck should be under constant pressure and need a safety valve.

ATLANTA FALCONS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS: ATL: Atlanta continues to silence it's doubters and now sits atop the NFC South. Matt Ryan is having the best year of his young career and can thank Roddy White for being the hardest WR to cover in the NFL. Teams know White is getting the ball yet he still continues to show an uncanny ability to find the holes in coverage and break away from defenders. The return of Jenkins has also helped keep teams honest and deny them the ability to bring an extra man in the box to defend against Mike Turner who has turned it on the last three weeks after a slow start. He faces a solid rush vs St. Louis who ranks 6th in the NFL and has allowed only 3 rushing TD's which ties them for 1st. St. Louis also is good against the pass, ranking 17th but they know how to apply pressure logging 28 sacks this year which ties them for tops in the NFL. Ryan and company are not the same team on the road and will face a tougher test than what people think.
RAMS: As stated they are one of the most under valued defenses in the NFL and have quietly been one of the better units. It's the offense that needs a shot in the arm and will face a tough defense which matches up well against them. S. Jax faces the Atlanta 7th ranked defense which has also only given up 3 rushing TD's and shares the lead in that category with the Rams. Where the Rams will attack is through the air where Atlanta is 23rd. Amendola will need to be very involved as will S.Jax in the pass game, but the Rams will need Brandon Gibson to step up big time and force the Falcons to give S.Jax running room. Even against the tough rush defense, S. Jax will be effective as he has proven it really doesn't matter who he plays, he will get his.

The Rams have won four straight at home and Atlanta is weaker on the road although in their favor is the fact that it is a dome game. The Rams are more of a potent defense than people think and will surprise here, shocking Falcon fans on Sunday. STL 23-ATL 20.

FANTASY STARTS: ATL: White (6 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Gonzales (4 for 40 yds 1 TD.) Jenkins ( 5 for 65 yds.) Turner (13 for 70 yds)
STL: Amendola (6 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Jackson (14 for 55 yds. 1 TD/ 3 for 40 yds.)
SLEEPER: Daniel Fells STL...He is targeted often by Bradford who is excellent at not turning the ball over. Fells may see some extra work as the Falcons try to take Jackson out of the picture.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: IND: They escaped a late rally by the Bengals who exposed the holes in their 10th ranked pass defense and showed what can happen when you spread the ball around. However, the Colts face a far lesser pass defense in New England which ranks 30th vs the pass and is prime for the taking when Peyton Manning is throwing the ball. No word on if Addai will return as of yet, but Brown and James should see decent days against the Pats 18th rush defense. Look for Peyton to take advantage of this young secondary and for Garcon to return to fantasy worth this week. There was way too much Jacob Tamme last week and the Colts should recognize this and try to spread it out more since it almost cost them the game. Tamme is banged up this week but should be good to go come game time.
PATS: Brady and the Pats put on a clinic last week on how to beat the Steelers, chipping away at them with the short pass game and all but abandoning the run which would have been futile anyway. You have to love "the hoodie" because as a coach he is one of the best. He realized why waste a play on a run against the best run stopping defense when your pass percentages are better? This week look for him to flip the script as the Colts are 10th vs the pass and 29th vs the run. It works not only because it's the Colt weakness but also because more time and longer drives means less time for Manning. Woodhead and Green-Ellis should have great days, with Woodhead getting a slight advantage since he will be involved in the pass game. I also like Welker but would avoid Ben Tate who is the deep threat route runner. The Colts cover 2 scheme is best beat over the middle and with Freeney charging at you the short throw is your best option.

 This will be one of the better games this weekend and football is always better when the Patriots are doing well because you either love them or hate them. Although it's a home game, the Colts pass game is more effective than the Pats run attack. Colts win a close one. IND 24- NE 21.

 FANTASY STARTS: IND: Manning (310 yds. 3 TD) Garcon (6 for 85 yds. 1 TD) Wayne ( 5 for 110 yds. 1 TD) Tamme ( 5 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Brown (12 for 55 yds.) NE: Brady (280 yds. 2 TD) Woodhead (9 for 45 yds/ 4 for 50 yds. 1 TD) Green-Ellis (12 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Welker (6 for 70 yds. 1 TD) SLEEPER: A. Hernandez NE....while he gave you zero last week, this week he should be in high demand as the Pats receivers struggle to find the long ball. Hernandez has great speed for a TE and will find the holes in the center of the Colts zone coverage.

 NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: NYG: The Giants no doubt are the second most humbled team after the Redskins considering they were blown out by a team everyone counted done for the season. The Cowboys destroyed the Giants 4th ranked secondary last week and now Vick comes to town with an even better arsenal. The Giants face an Eagles team ranked 12th vs the run and 16th vs the pass. While middle of the road, the Eagles are a bend but don't break defense but excell at takeaways where they are at +12 on the year with 16 interceptions after Monday night which is best in the NFL, Manning typically struggles a bit vs better secondaries and the Giants will most likely opt for a heavy run scheme with passing a supplement. Nothing new to the Giants, but it will lower the value of the deep threats like Nicks. Steve Smith and Ramsey Barden now are both out this week which makes it easier for Assante to know where Eli will be going with the ball. This is why we've seen Boss more involved, and he is now dealing with the injury bug himself. The Giants quickly become one dimensional now with the loss of Smith and the Eagles will send pressure up front. It will boil down to how effective Bradshaw and Jacobs can be on the road. Both guys will carry good value this week because of their work load.
 PHI: Mike Vick is possibly football's version of Muhammed Ali in respect to another guy who missed years of his sport only to return and dominate. Of course that's where the comparisson ends but Vick is already being talked about in the possible MVP race. I watched him in pre season and it was apparent then that he has matured as a pocket passer and realized his feet are a better weapon when it's a second option and not the first. The MVP talk will either stop with this game or catapult him to the upper list if he beats a Giants team ranked 4th vs the pass and 3rd vs the rush. It will be squarely on him if the Eagles faulter so we will see exactly how good he is against playoff caliber teams. This will by far be his hardest test presuming the pre Cowboyed Giants show up. Look for the high percentage passes and McCoy to be used heavily in the passing game. This is also a game where Brent Celek will be used more than the past. Vick will have plenty of opportunities to scramble, but the Giants are good at collapsing a pocket, thus leaving Vick in a position where he will need to dump off the ball. Nobody should have especially gaudy numbers in this game, but if anyone does emerge as the top fantasy scorer here it will be Vick.

 The injuries and lack of dimensions to the Giants boosts the Eagles ability to defend in what should be a great defensive show down. In the end, Vicks scramble for a score on a broken play is the difference. PHI 20- NYG 17.

 FANTASY STARTS: NYG: Bradshaw (13 for 60 yds. 1 TD/ 3 for 25) Jacobs ( 12 for 45 yds. 1 TD) Nicks (4 for 60 yds.) PHI: Vick (230 yds 1 TD/ 4 for 50 yds. 1 TD) McCoy ( 12 for 45 yds./ 5 for 40 yds. 1 TD) Jackson (3 for 60 yds) Maclin (4 for 50 yds.)
 SLEEPER: Celek and Boss.....both teams should value their Tight Ends more than normal this week and both will be needed to move the chains. Don't be shocked if both score.
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Monday, November 15, 2010

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PREVIEW

EAGLES AT REDSKINS: The Redskins have thrived off of turn overs and been extremely opportunistic. They've had to be since they have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, next to Houston. Now they will face Mike Vick, whom they put out of commission last time they faced each other. The Skins will have to do it playing solid football since there won't be as many opportunities for turn overs. Vick has yet to throw an interception and uses his feet when things are crowded down field instead of forcing the ball. He's matured as a QB and knows how to use his talents now. Mcnabb and company will find success against this defense but it will depend on Anthony Armstrong and Ryan Torain. Moss will have Samuel in his face and you can be sure the Eagles will do their best to limit Cooley as well. Tonight could also see the return of Clinton Portis and while common sense says it's Torain's job, Shanny has a way of keeping fantasy owners guessing. All your guys on both teams are good starts here but Torain's value could be limited since the Eagles should have no problem scoring, thus forcing Mcnabb to air it out come second half. EAGLES 32-REDSKINS 24.
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Sunday, November 14, 2010

SUNDAY IN REVIEW

BUFFALO BILLS: The monkey is off their backs and the Bills can celebrate for at least one night. CJ Spiller suffered a hamstring injury and didn't return in the second half so Fred Jackson owners can finally get the value they expected out of him on draft day. Two TD's and 170 yards probably helped you win this week. Fitzpatrick had an off day but is still a good start depending on the match up as is Steve Johnson. With Parrish being out, Lee Evans is also a good #3 guy if you lack options.

DETROIT LIONS: Shaun Hill had a good day statistically but the most worrisome part is how Jhavid Best and Kevin Smith both failed to put up good days against one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. Best has amazing potential but is nothing more than a safety valve if you have better options. Do not trust this guy as a start. Megatron retained his value this week and looks like he can be depended on as a WR #1 regardless who is at QB. He and Pettigrew are the only two start worthy guys regardless of the match up. The Lions have DAL, NE, CHI, and GB the next four weeks so if you are really weak at RB or QB it may be wise to sell high on Pettigrew or get a combo package for CJ. The Playoff's are GB, at Tampa who's pass defense is very good and Miami who is also solid vs the pass. If you're looking at playoff's and need to fill holes, CJ in a trade should do it.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Favre had a Favre day and tossed three picks to seal the Vikings fate in the division. Percy Harvin aggravated his ankle once again and is a sell high prospect since he should be a top eight WR in fantasy after this game. Take away the 53 yard reception and you're looking at 3 catches for about 12 yards. Not good, especially since it looks like the Vikings "have a foot in the parking lot", waiting for the off-season. The Vikings are missing Moss, and it was way too much Peterson which tells me they are not confident in anyone other than Harvin. The Vikings have NYG, CHI, and PHI in the playoffs so look for a multi player deal for Harvin to another team on the bubble who is WR deep. Give him up for a Solid #2 WR and another positional guy you can use.

CHICAGO BEARS: Cutler had one of his better days, completing passes to 9 different receivers but still threw 2 picks to his 3 Touchdown passes. As I've been preaching, the Bears need to involve Gregg Olsen. When they do they win, when they don't they lose. Forte finally had a decent day on the ground gaining 69 yards but he has a so-so schedule going ahead. His ability and use in the pass game makes him a keeper but he is less than an absolute lock every game to give you good scores. Cutler will make or break you so if you can unload him for someone more consistent do so. He has 12 TD's to 9 INT's so that tells you what you can expect with his 86 QB rating.

NY JETS: Ryan stayed true to his word on making sure Greene and Tomlinson had a better share of the work load and both guys had very productive days. Greene will hold good value and is a great safety valve as a guy who is not really start worthy but could become a solid play come playoff time. Sanchez gave you numbers this week but it took a full OT to give you what many other QB's can do in 4 quarters. However, his schedule has two good match ups the coming weeks but gets tough with MIA at home then at PIT and CHI in the playoffs. He will give you mediocre numbers but hopefully you have better balance at all other positions if you are depending on him as a starter.

CLEVELAND BROWNS: Peyton Hillis is a monster...82 yards rushing with a score and 27 through the air. He is quite possibly the best and most consistent fantasy back this year and has proved he can produce regardless of the opponent. He has a great schedule the rest of the way and is a sure fire stud the rest of the year. Colt McCoy may be a guy you want to snag in keeper leagues. He isn't putting up gaudy numbers but is showing great decision making skills, not causing turn overs and if they sign a solid starting WR he will only become more effective. No WR currently on the roster is a good start but if you have to have one in your line up, Cribbs is the guy. The Browns defense is one which can serve as a solid reserve squad come the playoffs so get them if you need depth or if your current defense has a tough road ahead of them. TE Ben Watson is another guy flying under the radar and a solid play every week. He is seeing as many targets as any WR on the team.

CINCINNATI BENGALS: The time for Carson Palmer has come. He has struggled with accuracy issues all year and the only thing keeping him fantasy relevant is the sheer amount of throws he is having to make playing from behind. Ochocinco took a hard fall on his shoulder but did return so he should be fine after sitting out a few practices and getting treatment. Don't freak if you see him on the injury list unless it turns out to more serious than he let on. Cedric Benson continues to be underwhelming going for just 24 yards on 14 carries. Part of it is the fact the Bengals are being forced to abandon the run game, but Benson has lacked the second gear we saw last season. Other than Buffalo next week, Benson does not have an easy go at it through the playoffs so if you can get a solid second tier back or fill another position you need go for it. However you may want to wait until after next week vs the Bills when his value will be higher.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Javarris James was my sleeper and delivered, rushing for a TD on limited action. He now is tied with Addai for the lead in TD runs, but once Addai is healthy will most likely go back to reserve status. Sell high on him now while you can to a team struggling at RB. He was a waiver guy, so fill your voids with him now. Tamme has proven to be valuable and a great replacement to Clark. If you followed me on Twitter you were the first ones to know about Tamme as I posted him up as an immediate pick up as soon as Clark went down. The problem for the Colts overall is that Peyton seems almost overly dependent upon him. Tamme caught 7 balls but was targeted at least 11 times. The Bengals do have a good secondary, but Manning seems to be checking off quicker than normal and not allowing things to develop down field. Both Garcon and Wayne had below average days because of it. Both guys are still starter worthy, but Garcon is on the most shaky ground as he dropped a TD pass and if Collie returns come playoff time it will hurt his value even more. Do not buy into this back field until Addai returns and even then he will not be more than a reserve back you can trust.

HOUSTON TEXANS: Houston has lost 3 in a row and teeter on a team losing it's faith. Andre Johnson posted the numbers you would have expected, with 146 and a score. Arian Foster had a normal day, rushing for 56 and a score. While Kevin Walter gave 90 yards and a score, do not buy into it. Trade him now at his peak and reap the benefits. The Texans face some of the best secondaries around and don't have an easy playoff game until week sixteen vs Denver. Walter is one of those guys who can get you great value that pays off long term. The Texans as a whole are facing a losing streak that could very well continue and derail their good start to the season.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: MJD made the most of his bye week, returning for 100 yds. 2 TD's and 24 through the air. MJD has a great schedule going forward, with a majority of the teams having weak run defenses. Simms-Walker returned to his unreliable ways and is a guy that can hurt you if you are depending on him. He's a good flex or WR #3 but comes with high risk. The Jags got away with one here, getting the lucky bounce but Gerrard faces some good pass defenses in the next few weeks. MJD will continue to be the work horse and limit Gerrard and Simms-Walker's value.

TENNESSEE TITANS: If we have learned anything about Randy Moss this year it is that he bumps the value of the second WR for each team he is on. Nate Washington only had 26 yds. receiving but was the only one to catch a score. I still believe Young will look for him every chance he gets and this was probably more a factor of not knowing the play book 100%. CJ had 117 and a score and will continue to thrive as long as Moss is around forcing help deep for corner backs. Vince Young is a solid back up for your team that comes with a higher potential than most other QB's who are secondary options.

MIAMI DOLPHINS: Looks like the future may be in Tyler Thigpen's hands after Pennington and Henne went down. Early work is Pennington may be gone for the year and given Henne wasn't trusted to start the game, Thigpen should get the start next week. Brandon Marshall may as well call himself Steve Smith (CAR) given the lack of production due to a QB carousel and the lack of any real talent at the position. Teams are taking him out of the equation and forcing the Dolphins to beat them with Bess or Hartline. Both are great reserve guys/ borderline #3 or flex plays if we could get a good read on who the QB will be. Ricky Williams had the best game on the ground with 64 yards but both he and Brown are not close to what they were last year and should not be starting on your team. If you have to start one it's Brown who has the most upside so far and has given you the most production fantasy wise overall. Anthony Fasano had 107 yds with a score and should be a solid play if Thigpen gets the stat next week.

CAROLINA PANTHERS: Clausen continues to remind us all he is a rookie and struggled to make the plays on 3rd down to move the chains. Mike Goodson did rush for 100 yards, but don't read too much into it. The Bucs are very weak vs the run and faces Baltimore next week if Williams still isn't healthy. Steve Smith will have games where he gives you a decent points, but is only dependable as WR #3.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: Aurellious Benn is a good waiver pick up if you need depth, scoring for the second time in as many games and should have had one more had he not come up inches short vs Arizona. Mike Williams should be in your line up every week and could come cheap via trade since he doesn't carry the name value of other higher profile guys. Legarrette Blount seems to be the real deal and is a solid RB #2 start you can depend on. Hold on to these guys though the tougher match ups coming the next few weeks because come playoff time the Bucs face WASH, DET, and SEA.

KC CHIEFS: They were down early after three quick scores by Denver but more telling is how they fought back and finished the game losing by only 10. This team is for real but simply had one of those days. Denver shut down the run early and schemed well, allowing Charles only 41 yards which would be the best output of any runner. Charles continues to prove he is the back you want here as he caught 5 passes for 80 yards and a score. He is a sure #1 RB and has one of the best schedules vs the run. Matt Cassel has become a guy that may make you question putting him in over your starter depending on the match up. He has helped Dwayne Bowe be fantasy relevant again and add a dimension that will help this team contend for the playoffs. Bowe and Charles are must starts every week, with Thomas a solid #2 RB play if you have him. KC has ARI, SEA, and DEN the next three weeks so all the mentioned guys are good plays to help you get into the playoffs. Don't think Denver will have another one like this in Arrowhead.

DENVER BRONCOS: They flipped the script, doing to KC what Oakland did to them. Orton looked back to his old self, throwing 4 TD passes, two of them to sleeper of the decade Brandon Lloyd. Demarius Thomas looked to have tweaked his tail bone on a catch so will be one to watch this week. The bigger news is that Knowshaun Moreno is back and looks to finally be 100%. He rushed for 106 caught for 50 yards and a score. Moreno is a solid play from here on out and has some good match ups ahead. He is a solid RB #2 guy the rest of the year.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: Mike Williams looks recovered from whatever injuries were bothering him and Matt Hasselbeck threw for 333 yards. Neither back is one you can rely on. Marshawn Lynch is the starter, as he continues to get the majority of the carries. Justin Forsett gets fewer touches, but often out produces. While this was a good win, lets remember it was against Arizona. Mike Williams is a solid start, but nobody else on the team warrants a start.

ARIZONA CARDINALS: At this point it's the Fitzgerald and Breaston show and they are the only ones you should rely on. Wells is too injury prone and Hightower too inconsistent. Don't buy the Early Doucet game. The Cards had to throw to come from behind and we know who the top targets are.

DALLAS COWBOYS: I had the feeling Garrett would switch things up a bit and he did. Far from just a new start, the Cowboys looked different in every facet of the game, playing with great speed I haven't seen from them since week 1. Felix Jones was one of my Gut check guys and produced because Garrett realizes how to use his talents and put them to use. This is how Jones should have been used all year long. Felix Jones value obviously goes up, but the rest of the guys should stay where you currently have them. Jones will be relied on to open up things and I see Garrett using him more in a Reggie Bush type of role from here on.

NY GIANTS: There really is no change with the Giants values since they were simply just overwhelmed from the start. Mario Manningham's value did jump with the loss of Steve Smith so grab him if you can. He will be a solid play, and may lead this team in targets and receptions from here on. If you want depth, Ramses Barden looks like he will be a third option at WR but the Giants looked as if they wanted to use the TE more instead of Barden. Kevin Boss stands to see a big boost in value and should be on most people's waiver wire. Pick him up if he is.

ST.LOUIS RAMS: Another game, another score from Amendola, who has boosted himself to solid #3 WR status. SJax is his normal fantasy beast self and has proven he will provide you double digits every week no matter what. The bigger thing here is that it should be time to drop Laurent Robinson if you have him as a reserve and pick up Brandon Gibson. Neither is lighting it up but if you need depth Gibson has more up side.

SF 49ERS: Troy Smith has transformed this team and has them back to believing in their potential. I called another SF win and am high on Troy Smith's value going ahead. He's not afraid to throw the ball unlike Alex Smith and his feet make him more of an asset. Crabtree seems to be trust worthy for about 50-60 yards a game with good upside to score since Troy Smith seems to have a connection with him. Really, nothing has changed in the pecking order of this team, they just have become better at executing which means more points for you.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Just when I talk about how reliable Woodhead will be, Welker comes back and makes me question it. All year it has been Woodhead doing the things Wes was doing and now it looks like Welker may be getting healthier. Regardless, you have to roll with Woodhead because of his two position availability and because of his touches. Hernandez is still the guy you want at TE, but this game just reminds you that Brady likes to spread out the love and the Pats are a team that will do what is necessary to win and roll with the hot hand.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: They were hurt by Ben's mistakes and showed the best way to beat them is with the short passing game. Mendenhall came short of what we all expected him to produce though the Pats run game is average and not as bad as believed. Ben has spread the love since his return and Mike Wallace value sky rocketed. Heath Miller could be a good trade bait candidate since he will be a part of this offense but looks to have fallen to option #4 in the pass game since Randle-El has emerged.







Friday, November 12, 2010

FRIDAY GUT CHECK

A list of players who may have bad match ups, under performing, or are secondary options but believe will perform well Sunday. Purely gut decisions, it's those starts you don't make because it's not rational although your gut tells you otherwise.

CHAD PENNINGTON MIA.....This guy doesn't go away and for good reason, he has a 66.1% career completion percentage and a 90.1 career QB rating. So far in 3 years, Henne has a rating of 76. Pennington is that quick strike short throw guy who will do well against the Titan secondary. Pennington has the weapons here unlike his previous years where the Dolphins lacked a dimension. The Titans are giving up 239 yards per game thru the air, so if you have a starter on a bye he makes a good play to me even though it's his first start in a year.

FELIX JONES DAL....He faces the Giants 3rd ranked run defense, allowing only a total of 80 YPG. However, something tells me Jason Garrett is going to use the weapons he has and focus on Jones' versatility in the pass game. Look for plenty of creative plays from Dallas as he tries to spark some life into this team. Felix Jones stock could be on the rise starting with this game.

JAVARRIS JAMES IND....In one game he has 2 Touchdowns, giving him just one less than team leader Joseph Addai who has three. Donald Brown will get the start here and a majority of the carries, but James is a harder runner who is reminiscent of Edgerrin James to me. Not as fast, but hits the hole with force. There will be plenty of love to go around too vs the Bengals 21st rush defense. I see him scoring again and maybe opening eyes as the possible back of the future for the Colts.

CADILLAC WILLIAMS/ KELLEN WINSLOW TB....While he is a shadow of his former self, Cadillac did have his second best game of the year on the ground against the Panthers gaining 51 yards on the ground. While that is not saying much, he did also have a long run called back on a penalty so could of finished much better. This week, Clausen gets the start as does Mike Goodson. The Bucs defense should allow plenty of work for their offense, so Williams may see more touches than normal and will no doubt be a force in the passing game since the Panthers secondary is one of the best in the game. Raheem refuses to give up on Cadillac so there could be good value here. Winslow had his best game of the year the first time they faced the Panthers, finding holes and being Freeman's safety valve target since most of the down field throws were taken away. Winslow could have another 80 yard day but score this time around.

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

WEEK 10 PREVIEW-PROJECTIONS

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ ATLANTA FALCONS: Baltimore has consistently gotten better every game and are fresh after a bye week and a home game versus the Dolphins which they won easily. The bye no doubt afforded them time to dual game plan for both Miami and the Falcons so Baltimore carries the edge in both prep and health. While Atlanta has the 11th ranked pass offense, Roddy White banged up his knee and though he returned to the game was not close to as effective as normal. Regardless, the Ravens 7th ranked pass defense will be a tough task for Matt Ryan who has a history of struggling against 3-4 defenses. The key here will be the Ravens 13th rush defense versus the Falcon's 6th ranked rush attack. Turner seems to have gotten a second wind after the bye and ran well versus the Bucs. The Falcons are easy prey against the pass, especially over the middle. Look for Flacco to connect well with all his receivers, but especially Todd Heap who should see gaps in coverage as the LB's for Atlanta focus on stopping Ray Rice. Don't expect a big day on the ground from Rice as the Falcons are 5th vs the run. Flacco should wind up as a top seven QB this week given the passing work he will be forced into. With Roddy White looking a bit limited expect to see Gonzales and Jenkins get a fair share of work given the pass game is Baltimore's weakness. Matt Ryan will be a decent start, but should be held in check.

Matt Ryan is now 7-1 at home in his last 8 but has struggled against this type of scheme and may be with a less than 100% White who has been his go to guy. Ray Rice has found his legs also and is producing both on the ground and in passing. The Ravens simply have too many weapons for Atlanta's secondary to handle. BALT 24- ATL 20.

FANTASY STARTS: RAVENS: Flacco (280 yds. 2 TD) Rice (12 for 60 yds./ 5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Boldin (5 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Mason (4 for 65 yds.) Heap (4 for 50 yds. 1 TD)
FALCONS: White ( 4 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Jenkins (6 for 80 yds.) Gonzales (5 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Turner ( 14 for 55 yds/ 3 for 35 yds.)
SLEEPER: McGahee Balt....He has been increasingly productive the last few games after being an after thought for the first part of the season. He could find an increased work load given the Atlanta front 7 and allowing Rice a breather.

DETROIT LIONS @ BUFFALO BILLS: Detroit is now down to Drew Stanton at QB after Stafford separated his shoulder once again. Megatron will be affected by the switch but lets face it, all the Lions can and will do is pass...except in this game. Buffalo has the WORST rush defense in the NFL and face a speedy back in Jhavid Best who is just getting healthy from turf toe. Given the Lions pass defense is 21st and face a good passing team as of late, there is the possibility the Lions fall behind in the second half and are forced to abandon what should be an effective run game. The Lions are not much better against the rush ranking 25th. CJ Spiller could have his breakout game here in an effort to prove he is better than Best which many scouts and analysts compared him to before the draft. Best has definitely been the more productive one as CJ failed to over take Jackson as lead back. The Bills lost Roscoe Parrish this week and will be down to sensation Steve Johnson and Lee Evans. Look for Spiller to at least have an increased role in the pass game because of this, though he should only be considered a sleeper. On the Detroit side, look for Pettigrew to be heavily involved since the Bills will be effective shutting down Megatron and Burleson. The Bills pass defense is ranked 4th and that is with only 1 interception recorded. Pettigrew will be relied on as Stanton's check down guy and should find some room over the middle.

The Bills get a Detroit team whom are good at finding ways to lose much like themselves. However, the Bills face Stanton now on the road against a tough secondary led by Whitner. Buffalo gets their first win. DET 17- BUFF 27.

FANTASY STARTS: DET: Best (14 for 80 yds. 1 TD/ 4 for 35 yds.) C. Johnson (4 for 55 yds.) Pettigrew ( 6 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
BUFF: S. Johnson (5 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Evans ( 6 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Jackson (15 for 75 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: CJ Spiller BUFF....as stated, I think he has the best game to date in a competition of highly touted future backs. He gets a score here, though should be weighed if you have better options.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: As if things couldn't get worse for the Bengals, they miss a comeback win vs the Steelers by two yards and now face the Colts 5th rated pass defense. Ochocinco is frustrated and making it known Carson is the source. Given that, you can bet he will be more involved this week. The Colts are vulnerable to multi faceted WR deep teams and face one here against the Bengals 7th ranked pass offense. This will be the focus for the Colts since they will apply a lot of pressure using Freeney while allowing that cover two to keep TO and OchoCinci is not much better either, ranking 21st against the rush. This is what the game should boil down to. Both teams strengths are facing the pass and both are weak run stoppers. Brown had a marginal day last week but Javarris had two scores though he had minimal yardage. Given it was the best rush defense on Monday vs the Steelers, Benson was able to put together some decent runs and will have success here. Since both teams are pass happy, don't be surprised if each one tries to establish the run first and foremost. Both backs are good plays this week and while both teams are solid pass defenders, each does allow those mid range and sideline throws the cover two is succeptable to. The Colts will also be without Collie this week, and Blair White should take his place. The emergence of Tamme has been a welcome but expected addition, allowing Manning to not miss Clark's big plays. On the other side, both Greisham and Shipley have been effective in their roles and will be big parts of moving the chains.

This could be one of the best games to watch this weekend and has a high probability of being a shoot out. The Colts are one of the toughest to beat at home and win this game though the Bengals could surprise. IND 31- CINCI 28.

FANTASY STARTS: BENGALS: Palmer (300 yds 3 TD) TO ( 6 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Ochocinco ( 7 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Benson (17 for 90 yds. 2 TD)
COLTS: Manning (330 yds. 3 TD) Wayne (6 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Tamme (7 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Garcon (5 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Brown (15 for 80 yds 1 TD)
SLEEPERS: Blair White IND and Jordan Shipley CIN....both should be key influences on the game and both will find room to work underneath Ochocinco and Reggie Wayne. Each one has great chances at a score.

NY JETS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS: The Browns seem to be adept at beating winning teams poised to be playoff contenders so here is another possible upset in the works. Mangini gets the chance to spoil both his former teams in consecutive weeks. Cleveland has the 15th ranked rush defense and has allowed an NFL best 1 rushing TD. Where they are weak is versus the pass where they sit at 25th. The Jets 4th ranked run game will have one of the few tests it's faced all year and Tomlinson has slowed a bit in the last two weeks. Tomlinson has to be getting a bit run down by this point which may explain the drop off and remember this is about when Greene started to get involved and take over for Thomas Jones. Sanchez did struggle last week but showed tremendous poise in the final quarter against Detroit. He has better weapons to take advantage of Cleveland's weak secondary and should be the deciding factor. Hillis has been lights out this year and was in beast mode last week. Remember though it was vs New England's 19th ranked D and not the Jets 4th. He should be good for a short score, but he will be extremely limited since Cromartie and Revis can handle Massaquoi and Cribbs without much help over top allowing extra men in the box. The sneaky play here will be Ben Watson who will slip out behind those blitzes the Jets love. Edwards will have some extra fight in him facing his old team.

Cleveland had the talent to beat up on New England whom is not even close to the defense we are used to seeing. The Jets strengths match up well here and pull out an easier win than expected. NYJ 28-CLE 17.

FANTASY STARTS: NYJ: Sanchez (270 yds. 2 TD) Tomlinson ( 15 for 60 yds./ 5 for 40 yds.) Holmes (5 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Edwards ( 6 for 110 yds. 1 TD) Keller ( 4 for 50 yds)
CLE: Watson (6 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Hillis ( 14 for 50 yds. 1 TD)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ CHICAGO BEARS: Everyone seems to be thinking all is back on track in Childress' club house after beating Arizona, but it was Arizona! The Vikings were 4 minutes from another loss but found a team in as much a mess as they are to come back against. This week they travel to the Windy City and face the 3rd ranked Chicago rush defense and 18th ranked pass defense. Peterson will have a serious time finding room to run and the Vikings longest pass play of the year has been for a wee 37 yards. Guess who they are tied with at the bottom in the shortest long pass play?...Arizona. Where the game gets interesting is what the Bears 22nd ranked pass offense will do vs the Viking 9th ranked pass defense. The Bears have allowed 32 sacks this year and are a miserable 22.9 % converters on 3rd down. Minnesota is 6th against the run and will face Forte who has struggled to do anything on the ground, now ceeding goal line carries to Chester Taylor. Cutler will be beaten up this week but the defense will have it easier since outside of Peterson the only real threat is Harvin. Berrian did step it up last week and is another player facing his former team that will have extra incentive.

Given how we have seen what happens against a formidable pass rush, the Bears chances boil down to Cutler having time to make accurate throws. The Vikings have been quiet on the pressure front all year but seem to have picked it up. Another toss up game here, but I will go with Chicago who comes off a win and is at home. CHI 24-MIN 21.

FANTASY STARTS: MIN: Peterson (16 for 55 yds / 6 for 50 yds. 1 TD) Berrian (5 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Harvin (7 for 70 yds. ) Favre ( 240 yds. 2 TD) Schiancoe (5 for 50 yds. 1 TD)
CHI: Forte (12 for 40 yds/ 6 for 55 yds 1 TD) Knox (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Olsen CHI....Martz shows me he gets it then doesn't....the Bears win when Olsen is involved. Olsen needs to be a key contributor and I think he will be since Cutler will be under pressure often.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGS: Houston allowed Phillip Rivers a monster day with none of his normal starters. Now they face a rested MJD and a pass offense that is 28th but was catching heat before the bye week. Facing the Texan 32nd pass defense will be just what Gerrard needs if there is any rust to be shaken off. MJD and their 8th ranked run attack square off against Houston's 11th ranked rush defense that held Mathews and Tolbert in place last week, but have faltered against tougher backs like Drew. The good news for Schaub and Foster though is that the Jags have allowed the 2nd most rush TD's at 11 and are just as bad versus the pass coming in at 28th. Both defenses like to give up points and this could come down to the end. It will be fantasy heaven for all the big names here.

While the Texans are the more potent offense, they have only two tricks...Johnson and Foster. The Jags come off a bye and we should see MJD as healthy as he has been all year after struggling with injuries in the first few weeks. The Jags will focus on Foster and leave it up to Johnson to beat them. With no Owen Daniels and no true second threat, the Jags pull out the upset. JAGS 34-TEXANS 28.

FANTASY STARTS: I won't even bother since it should be a fantasy feast. Start em if you got em.

SLEEPER: J. Jones HOU...With all the focus on Johnson and a weak secondary, this is the game Jones lives up to his pre-season hype.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS: The Fins were road warriors but have come up short recently. Henne's interceptions have been a big cause of their woes as the Dolphins are -7 in giveaway/takeaway ratio. The run game has found it's footing the last two weeks and Ronnie Brown is all of a sudden fantasy relevant in the Miami 17th ranked run offense. Somehow, despite the turnovers, Miami is 14th in passing even with teams taking away Marshall who is getting frustrated. Now that Henne has been benched Miami will look to stop the trend and it will help this offense be more effective. The Miami Defense will be tested now that the Titans have Moss who if nothing else demands safety help in case he runs a route fully. Keep in mind, Moss may be in great spirits as he is from Tennessee and has already earned praise from the club house. Nate Washington to me is a clone of Britt, just a bit older. The Titans really lost nothing and Chris Johnson will now be even deadlier with teams being forced to pick their poison. Vince Young gets a huge boost with Moss and the Titan 26th ranked pass defense will only get better.

The Titans already were showing they are more than just a run team with Britt and now will have defenses guessing even more. Pennington faces a rough first start here as the Titans are +6 in turn over ratio and have 13 picks with 6 fumble recoveries. TEN 28-MIA 20.

FANTASY STARTS: TEN: Young (240 yds. 2 TD/ 3 carries for 40 yds.) Washington (5 for 80 yds. 1 TD) CJ (16 for 110 yds. 2 TD) Moss (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
MIA: Brown (14 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Marshall (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD)

SLEEPER: Bess MIA...he is averaging 5 catches per game and has been a trust worthy option while Marshall gets the attention. Look for a possible sneaky score here.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ TB BUCCANEERS: Things went from bad to worse for Carolina's 32nd pass offense. Matt Moore is out now, Jonathan Stewart should be out with a head injury and Deangelo Williams is Questionable this week. No firm decision on Clausen has been made yet and Coach Fox hot seat just got hotter. The Bucs on the flip side were one yard away last week from beating Atlanta and sitting atop the division. Their bad taste left from the loss should be relieved this week as their league best 14 interceptions and +6 turnover ratio face an even weaker pass offense left with finding starters in the parking lot. Carolina should be able to keep the Bucs 20th ranked pass game in check but Carolina is 24th versus the run and facing a Bucs run game that has found itself behind Blount. Because of the run game, which is what the Bucs use to set up the pass, look for some success through the air for the Bucs as well. If Deangelo Williams is able to go, he should be the most productive as the Bucs are 30th against the run.

The Bucs handled a healthy Carolina earlier in the year and should win this one at home unless the young team gets cocky.
TB 31-CAR 17.

FANTASY STARTS: CAR: Williams ( 16 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Smith ( 4 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
TB: M. Williams ( 5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Blount (14 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Benn ( 3 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Winslow (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Freeman (260 yds. 3 TD/ 2 rush 25 yds.)

SLEEPER: C. Williams TB...Williams could have relevance here against this weak rush defense.

KC CHIEFS @ DENVER BRONCOS: The Chiefs 20th pass defense showed it's weakness last week allowing Jacoby Ford and the Raiders to come back and win a big divisional game. This week, KC faces another divisional foe and will be tested by Orton and the Bronco's 4th ranked pass attack. The Chiefs will drop extra guys this week making the pass a primary focus since the Broncos are last in rushing and have yet to have a runner hit 100yds in a game this year. The good news for KC is Charles and Jones will run over the Denver 31st rush defense that has allowed 14 rushing TD's. Denver is 6th against the pass so it will boil down to which team's Achilles heel can step up to the challenge. Look for KC to sustain long drives behind the run game to eat up clock and keep Denver from scoring quickly through the air.

Kansas City is the more balanced of the two and we all saw what the Raiders were able to do behind McFadden's career day. While Denver has had a bye week to prep, they don't have run stopping talent. The Chiefs do have talent in the secondary and if they can scheme correctly could keep Denver from scoring o too much.KC 27-DEN 24.

FANTASY STARTS: KC: Charles (13 for 60 yds. 1 TD/ 5 for 60 yds.) Jones (17 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Moeaki (5 for 45 yds 1 TD)
DEN: Orton (280 yds 3 TD) Lloyd ( 5 for 95 yds. 1 TD) Gaffney ( 4 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Royal ( 7 for 75 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Moreno DEN....While he absolutely can't be trusted, he could have a good day as KC focuses on the pass game allowing Moreno some running lanes in a surprising day.

ST.LOUIS RAMS @ SF 49ERS: Both teams head out of bye weeks but the 49ers have had two weeks to gain confidence after beating Denver and seeing they are still in the divisional race as Seattle and Arizona both lost. Troy Smith and the Niners were my sleeper upset picks and delivered vs Denver. I see them delivering here also. SF 9th ranked rush defenses faces S.Jax who can be held in some check when Bradford is on the road. The Rams have not broken the road loss streak and their 7th ranked rush defense will be busy chasing the versatile Gore around the yard. The Rams are a one dimensional team without Clayton and while Amendola has been a bright spot, he lacks the speed to stretch the field which is what the Rams need. SF wins this game and gets back in the thick of things. SF 20-STL 17.

FANTASY STARTS: RAMS: Jackson ( 16 for 55 yds. 1 TD/ 6 for 40 yds.) Amendola ( 6 for 55 yds. 1 TD)
SF: Gore (16 for 75 yds. 1 TD/ 5 for 55 yds.) Davis ( 6 for 60 yds 1 TD) Crabtree ( 4 for 60 yds.)
SLEEPER: L. Robinson STL.....they are waiting for another receiver to step up and Robinson has now had another week to get healthy.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ARIZONA CARDS: Both teams are mirror images of each other except that the Seahawks were finding ways to win. As of Tuesday night Hasselbeck still hadn't been cleared to practice so Whitehurst could be in for another start. Seattle is 29th in passing/29th in rushing. Arizona is 31 in passing and 28th in rushing. Both teams are over 27th in pass defense and only separate in rush defense where Seattle is 18th and Arizona is 27th...See what I mean about mirror images. Though it's obvious without the stats, each team is lacking the diversity it had a year ago, especially Arizona who is a shell of themselves. Derik Anderson should have earned another start and will look to Fitz often as Wells continues with the knee issues. Seattle does have the advantage with Lynch and Forsett at RB and the two will be the center pieces of the offense if Whitehurst starts again. Steve Breaston adds some depth here and may be the wild card that puts Arizona over the hump for the win. ARI 20-SEA 13.

FANTASY STARTS: ARI: Fitzgerald (7 for 110 yds. 1 TD) Breaston (5 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
SEA: Williams (4 for 65 yds.) Lynch (16 for 85 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Forsett SEA....he could see a ton of action sweeping out into the flats on passes making it an easy completion for Whitehurst with YAC potential.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ NY GIANTS: Jason Garrett has been the brides maid for years and gets his crack now. The team likes him and believe in him. Besides that change I am sure Jerry Jones made his voice heard that Felix Jones needed to see more touches to help this 31st ranked rush offense. Dallas has held on to 5th in passing with Kitna but it has decreased Miles Austin's value. Dez Bryant seems to be the most trust worthy start of the bunch. The Giants are one of the better balanced teams, ranking 8th in passing and 3rd in rushing. They face a Dallas team good versus the pass but 22nd vs the rush. Jacobs and Bradshaw will play power ball with the front seven and force Dallas to bring up help and allowing Nicks another game with another TD. While I expect a better showing than last week, the Giants win this one playing ground game football. GIANTS 27-DAL 24.

FANTASY STARTS: DAL: Bryant(6 for 60 yds.) Austin (8 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Jones ( 14 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
NYG: Bradshaw (15 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Jacobs ( 11 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Nicks (5 for 80 yds 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Roy Williams DAL....He' been quiet since Kitna took over and will run those under routes that are one of the few effective plays against the Giants. Not a good start, but has potential if your guys are on bye weeks.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS: The Steelers escaped the Bengals pass attack Monday and get a bit of a reprieve vs the NE 18th ranked pass offense.While not the Pats of old, they are the dink and dunk offense that can be effective. The Steelers are vulnerable vs the pass as they showed again Monday living up to their 24th rank. Against the run however, they are top of the league allowing opponents only 58 YPG. The Pats are 16th in rushing, but have zero fumbles this year. The Patriot defense has been bad vs the run but even worse vs the pass ranking 29th. Their real weakness is on 3rd downs where the Pats allow a league worst 48% conversion rate. New England showed their weaknesses at Cleveland and now slide over to Pittsburgh against a more potent team on both sides of the ball. Pittsburgh wins a tight one. PITT 23-NE 21.

FANTASY STARTS: NE: Brady (280 yds. 2 TD) Woodhead (6 for 60 yds. 1 TD/ 5 rush for 25 yds.) Hernandez ( 5 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
PITT: Roethlisberger: (240 yds. 2 TD) Wallace (4 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Ward (7 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Mendenhall (16 for 90 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: B. Tate NE.....As TO showed, Pitt is vulnerable to the deep middle pass and Tate has speed to burn. He is a good bet to surpass expectations and maybe tilt this game in favor of New England.
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