Tuesday, October 19, 2010
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Monday, October 18, 2010
TUESDAY HOT TOPIC
I brought this up briefly yesterday and during Monday Night Football the NFL released a statement that starting Sunday players will receive suspensions for leading with their helmet. I keep hearing how players use it as a weapon, how it's gotten out of hand and how players will just have to adjust. While it's the correct move in an attempt to slow down what has become a weekly issue, it doesn't make it the best move going forward. Anyone who thinks this is a new phenomenon is mistaken, all that's changed is the exposure concussions receive and players willingness to open up about this injury. Science and medicine have also opened eyes to the extent of damage concussions can cause long term, furthering the case for action to be taken. My point is, is it the players who really need to change? I have yet to hear a player state how they learned to lead with their head at any level. I have yet to hear how it's a trick of the trade to inflict more damage to a player. I'm not talking about defenseless players or quarterbacks here, that's a different story. This is just physics and how two people converging on a target make it nearly impossible to avoid. Why have I not heard a word from the talking heads about the possibility that maybe...it's the HELMET! God forbid it be an equipment issue from the manufacturer which has a lucrative contract with the NFL. A contract which both entities make millions of dollars for each other. No, better to blame the players. Look at the act of catching a ball or running with possession of the ball. You are trying to make the other player miss while that player is leaving or about to leave his feet in an effort to create enough force to stop you. How can the defensive player do anything to avoid the offensive player making a move that creates helmet to helmet contact. Will this rule apply to offensive guys who lower their heads anticipating contact? How about linemen whom bang heads countless numbers of times throughout games. No, they aren't going full speed, but go bang your skull against a wall fifty times and tell me how you feel. News flash, there is no way to tackle without leading with your head...it sits on your shoulders. You have only so much room between a shoulder and your noggin that makes this rule almost laughable. Go for the knees you say? Has anyone seen what a knee to the head produces even with helmets on? How about the number of knees that will be torn ending seasons as a result of low tackles? Kareem Huggins? Carson Palmer? Bottom line, put the blame where it lies, the equipment hasn't grown with the athletes, science, or medical communities. Shame on the NFL pushing it on the players as their fault. Then again, since they would be subject to a host of lawsuits if they admitted it was issued equipment by the teams they have no other choice.
THE MORNING AFTER
First big point of what we saw Sunday was how the helmet to helmet rule has taken center stage this week. A rule that will most likely be revised in terms of punishment, the NFL has seen a host of concussions in the last few weeks. A.Rogers,Massoqoui,D.Jackson,Cooley,and Heap have all fallen victim in a weeks time. As Rodney Harrison and Tony Dungy stated, a harsher penalty such as a suspension is probably the best solution in the short term to making guys think twice before they go in head first. However, this is football and when the guy delivering the hit is just as likely to suffer the same result it makes one question on if suspension is really the solution. Nobody is trying to knock a guy out purposely by leading with the helmet but it happens in the process of a tackle depending on how the two players bodies are maneuvering in the course of a play. To me, it seems more an equipment issue than a player issue. The NFL has been testing dozens of prototypes and it's time they issue a better helmet designed for today's impact needs. Now on to the review...
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: I thought this one had the makings of an upset and it did. Seattle came out with a blitz heavy game plan, sacking Cutler six times. Deion Butler seems to be the receiver you want in Seattle when it comes to red zone scoring from here on out. Mike Williams is the yardage monger but Butler is Hasselbeck's go to guy inside the twenty. Justin Forsett continues to be the back with most upside and the one who is most dependable but it's clear no matter what that Carrol likes using a two back system regardless of who is available. Marshawn Lynch only averaged 2.7 YPC but did score and almost doubled Forsett's touches.
CHICAGO BEARS: Cutler did look a bit rusty, but it was hard not to when Seattle was down his throat constantly and sacked him six times. Their biggest problem was on 3rd down where they went 0-12. That won't win games period and the fact Chicago was even in the race was surprising. They will get things righted this week and hopefully fix the Offensive line issues as the season goes on. Johnny Knox has emerged as the only receiver worth owning on the team and Forte continues to be a threat in all aspects of the game. Chicago seems to have issues when Greg Olsen isn't involved heavily and is something Martz needs to look at going ahead.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: Chris Ivory showed the Bucs run defense for what it was, rushing for 158 yds. making all sorts of passing lanes available for Brees. Brees torched the Bucs secondary for 3 TD's in a game that had the Saints looking as good as they did last year only a week after looking lost and searching for that touch they seemed to have lost. Chris Ivory may be able to hold the job in at least a split carry capacity when Pierre Thomas returns. While this was a great day for them, I wouldn't yet say that Meachem or Colston are back yet. Given that all aspects of the game were firing here, we should wait and see if it can translate a few weeks in row before getting comfortable.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: Just when the Bucs were using Kareem Huggins and seeing how much he opens the offense up....Huggins suffers what appears to be a major knee ligament injury. The Bucs now need an answer at RB more than ever with Cadillac proving valuable in the pass game but averaging only 1.8 YPC on the ground. A trade before the deadline would not be surprising as they lack depth at the position. Josh Freeman still looked comfortable in the pocket but was a victim of bad communication on routes the receivers were supposed to be running. Until they find an answer at RB though, the Bucs will be a passing first team and able to be kept in check. Mike Williams and Freeman continue to be the only fantasy starts you can depend on week to week.
MIAMI DOLPHINS: Henne shut me up for a week at least providing his best performance efficiency wise this game. The Dolphins finally got that balanced run attack they've been lacking all year out of Williams and Brown which led to a wearing down of the defense and allowing things to open up for Henne. I would expect Sporano to take note and force feed his backs from here on out instead of trying to make Henne beat teams. Brandon Marshall put up 127 yards and the use of Fasano showed yet another option the Dolphins should pay more attention too going ahead. While a good win, the Dolphins were facing an injury laden defense lacking mostly it's top play makers.
GREEN BAY PACKERS: Aaron Rogers looked a bit off after missing practice time with the concussion, but it was more a result of no Jermichael Finley and the mediocre performance of Brandon Jackson that had him looking to his only threat left in Greg Jennings. The Packers have now become more one dimensional and need someone to step up as a legitimate threat either on the ground or at receiver. Especially with the defense being down with injury issues, the Packers will need to find ways to score and keep up with teams. For now, Jennings and Rogers are the only two dependable fantasy starts.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: As if things couldn't have gotten worse, the Chargers lost Malcom Floyd to a hamstring injury and Gates to an ankle injury that seems somewhat serious. Rivers was quickly left with only Crayton and Davis as his only reliable threats which made life easier for the Rams to pull out a win. Tolbert was limited in action but did post the score and is about what you can expect going forward. Gates looks to be questionable for next week since he is unable to put pressure on the ankle and we'll wait on word of the seriousness of Floyd's hammy though a speed guy like him will be limited even if it is not that serious. Buster Davis and Patrick Crayton should see huge boosts in value until Naanee returns and then I think Buster Davis is the one to own since he will stretch the field.
ST. LOUIS RAMS: Bradford continues his great inaugural season by managing the game and limiting his errors. Even without Clayton, the Rams may have found a replacement in Denario Alexander who caught 4 balls for 78yds and a score. Steven Jackson continues to be the work horse, rushing for 109 on 29 carries. If the Rams can keep finding big games from their WR then this is a team week in and out that must be taken seriously. Their biggest problem right now is on the road where they need to find ways to win as well. Denario Alexander should be taken seriously and warrants a waiver claim.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: As predicted, Branch quickly became Brady's main target and A. Hernandez' role was greatly improved in a tight fought game. Branch will continue to be Brady's new top target until Tate opens things up and gets comfortable as the down field stretcher. Regardless, look for the Pats to become more of the mid range pass teams that puts together long drives as their new identity. Ben Jarvis-Green-Ellis rushed for the score, but Danny Woodhead may be the back you want going ahead getting the majority of the carries (11) and rushing for 63 yards. Fantasy wise, Branch and Welker will be a toss up game to game as to who is more valuable, but Hernandez and Tate will most likely be the red zone targets. Another game or two should paint a clearer picture as to who plays what roles in this new style offense.
BALTIMORE RAVENS: The Ravens pretty much had the game in their hands but the defense was worn down on long drives in the second half. Everyone who was supposed to make an impact did, but the loss of Heap seemed to throw Flacco off just a small bit not having that solid check down guy. He was solid with the deep ball however and will continue to have success. Had this game been against almost any other team it would have resulted in a win, but facing Brady all they needed to allow was a small window which Brady found. Everything stays the same for the Ravens but keep an eye on the severity of Heap's injury.
DETROIT LIONS: Shaun Hill suffered a broken arm and Drew Stanton took over leading the Lions on an 87 yd TD pass to Megatron who didn't seem hampered by the shoulder issues he had all week. The biggest glaring problem for Detroit was 4 first downs on penalties they allowed the Giants offense. The good news is that Stafford should return next week and the Lions have enough weapons to stay competitive. They need to get over the road loss hump and find a run game before they can become a legitimate team though. They keep trying to find solutions defensively but are incapable of stopping offenses. Count on more production from the receivers and for Best to find more running room next week with Stafford back in the line up.
NY GIANTS: The defense is back in top form, allowing Manning and the run game to flourish. Jacobs and Bradshaw have found their niche and will be a great duo if they stay healthy. Manning is at his most efficient when the run game is thriving and it's not all on him. This is another team where week to week the receiver with the big game will change, but Nicks is by far the one you have to have pencilled in no matter what as the starter. Jacobs is for now a solid flex play, bye week sub but can move up to #2 RB status with another week of what looks to be trending as the norm for him.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: All signs point to Deshaun Jackson missing the next game as his concussion was deemed severe and he was walked off the field by trainers helping him. Depending on the concussion grade, he could be held out even past the bye week. Maclin stepped up with a two TD day and expect Celek's value to rise since he becomes the team's #2 threat. Kolb settled in well and may be causing a QB controvery when Vick returns possibly this week. Reid says Vick is the starter though I find it more of what he's been ordered to say that what he wants. Kolb may actually be the better QB in this situation for as long as Jackson is out. Not having Jackson available will allow teams to bring up an extra guy to spy him and leave only one safety back to protect against Maclin. With Kolb, who is more of a pocket guy that can spread the ball around, all receivers have to be taken into account as legitimate threats because of the throws Kolb can make in this system.
ATLANTA FALCONS: I did like how Matt Ryan spread the love to Jenkins now that he's back to health but his Mike Turners average performances are becoming cause for concern. Atlanta is a scarier team with Turner running at full speed effectiveness. He seems to be lacking that extra gear this year and while Atlanta has gotten away with it, they will need him to be more of a threat going ahead against the better teams such as the Eagles. While he has to be a start, he has yet to prove that #1 RB status expected of him. The NFC South is still an open race so despite the loss, Atlanta has time to fix the lingering issues.
CLEVELAND BROWNS: Both Cribbs and Massaqoui left due to head injuries but Colt McCoy showed promise and composure against a top defense despite an uphill battle. Peyton Hillis was able to be the Steelers focus and was limited to 41yds. Cleveland is stuck in building mode but is playing better than their record or stats indicate. They are just one play maker away from becoming a more justifiable opponent, but until they produce a secure wide out, teams will be able to focus in on their only two weapons in Hillis and Cribbs. Keep an eye on Cribbs and Massoquoi's injuries since this severly dampens Hillis' ability to be productive.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Big Ben came back and Mike Wallace benefited posting 3 catches for 90 yds. and a score. Hines Ward also returned to his normal mid yardage TD day but it should be Mendenhall in the end who benefits most from Ben's return. Having a legitimate passing game allows all kinds of lanes for Mendenhall and things should only get easier for him from here. If this was Ben's first game back, then it was a sure sign of starting him at QB going forward or using him as trade bait since he was most likely the third QB on your team if you have him. With the struggles of so many QB's use it to your advantage in a trade to fill holes on your team.
KC CHIEFS: Todd Hailey finally gave Charles a better split of the carries and it paid off as the Chiefs ran for 193 yards between he and Thomas Jones. Cassel had his best game of the year, throwing for 3 TD's, two going to Dwayne Bowe. All this should be tempered by the fact he was facing the NFL's worst pass defense. The Chiefs had this game won had it not been for a bad pass interference call against them at the end and the defense played overall a good game for the second straight week against a high powered offense. The Chiefs will continue to be a contender in their division but will need to get some of those breaks in their corner after falling victim to them. Bowe should be a sell high candidate this week as a game like this isn't to be expected again. Both Jones and Charles could be the only running tandem that are starter worthy week to week.
HOUSTON TEXANS: The Texans pretty much gave us what we expected out of them with Andre Johnson getting 138 yds. and a score and Arian Foster continuing his fantasy elite year. The bigger story is Derrik Ward's solid performance again that makes him a must have for Foster owners and the locked in number two back in Houston. Owen Daniels has now had a few solid weeks and should be considered a safe TE start moving ahead as Schaub is relying more on him as an option.
NY JETS: Sanchez continues to instill faith in the passing game despite his mistakes and has looked more confident since the return of Holmes to the line up. As long as teams are forced to give attention to the pass game it will allow the run game to flourish. Tomlinson scored twice, and was kept in despite situations where we've seen Greene get the call which was telling. Greene has fallen back into a relief role only and can't be counted on to give more than 50 yds. on average a game. He will get the occasional score, but he is at best a flex play unless Tomlinson is injured. Edwards and Keller continue to be Sanchez' top red zone targets.
DENVER BRONCOS: Eddie Royal pulled a groin which actually makes the Broncos no more readable in the fantasy realm since Demaryus Thomas stepped in with a larger role. The Broncos receivers are much like the Saints corps this year where each has value week to week but none has the number one start locked down. While Gaffney and Lloyd are the two you can trust most, Thomas will only get better and Orton seemed to key on him in the second half with Royal injured. Running wise, the Broncos are still not dependable as they did scrap together 100 yds. rushing but only through a combined effort.
OAKLAND RAIDERS: A week after looking so good, the Raiders deflated themselves providing a lack luster offensive performance. Campbell went 8-21 with two picks and a passer rating of 10.7... The Offense as a whole could not get anything done. There were no real indications of anything here other than fantasy wise this team has hit a wall as far as anyone worthy starting until Gradkowski and McFadden return.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers: Crabtree and Davis are benefiting now that Smith has his back against the wall and is taking chances in order to keep his job. The new looser Smith wasn't necessarily better, but it does open up the fantasy prospects for Crabtree and Davis moving ahead. Gore rushed for 147 yds. and if Smith can expand on this and show signs of life in the pass game, Gore could expect to have more games like this on the ground. Crabtree has grown week to week and looks to be a reliable #3 WR.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS: The presence of Moss alone has had a visible impact on what the Vikings are able to do offensively. Berrian, Harvin, and Peterson have all been more productive since the trade and as Moss settles in things will only get better. While Moss will get the looks Harvin or Schiancoe normally receive inside the 20's, he creates favorable matches for everyone else on the field. Schiancoe seems to be the one initially most hurt from the trade and it may be time to trade him for some value while you can still get it. Harvin played more of an all around role here, but Berrian had his most productive day yet largely because he wasn't the focus. Other than Moss, Harvin is the only every week WR start you can depend on to contribute week in and out.
DALLAS COWBOYS: Romo's 2 picks and the Cowboys special teams were the cause this week as the team continues to find ways to lose. Felix Jones should be penciled in as the lead back from here on out and provides the most fantasy value going forward at RB. Dez Bryant's role continues to grow but Roy Williams should be considered now a weekly start as he and Romo show they indeed have a connection. Miles Austin was largely limited as he was the Vikings main focus, but as teams are forced to reconcile with covering Williams, he will get more of the open space he is used to in the coming weeks. Other than Marion Barber, all your Cowboys are trust worthy starts though Jason Witten seems to have taken a step back in value with Williams' emergence this year. If you have a solid #2 TE and can part with Witten, it may be wise to get some decent value for him while you can.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS: The Redskins are the NFL's version of Rocky Balboa. They get beaten, but deliver blow after blow in return, hanging around long enough to beat you in the closing rounds. While it didn't work out for them this week, they continue to be a well balanced team that doesn't do anything great but play solid football for four quarters. On top of that, pray your fantasy studs don't have Washington on the schedule. Rogers, Finley, Vick, and now Addai have all been injured when playing the Skins in three weeks straight robbing teams of essential players the week after playing them. Anthony Armstrong looks to be a solid #3 WR with alot of upside. A miss thrown pass by Mcnabb in the 4th quarter could have resulted in a long pass setting them up for a tie, but it does show the confidence Mcnabb and Shanny have in him after two good performances. Cooley left with a concussion and will be worth monitoring. Ryan Torain should have all but locked in the starting role and is a legit RB #2 if you have him.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: It's not clear what Addai's injury was after the game, but it looked to be serious as he was escorted into the locker room looking ginger. Given his injury history, pay close attention as it may mean Mike Hart will be the most trust worthy back in the interim. Austin Collie seems to have lost value with Garcon's return to the line up, but still shows value with the TD catch. Trusting either one of them more than a #3 WR until roles even out is a crap shoot since either one could be in line for a big game any week. Collie and Garcon should be sell high candidates if you can get the upper tier price they merit for right now and use it to solidify your weaker areas.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: I thought this one had the makings of an upset and it did. Seattle came out with a blitz heavy game plan, sacking Cutler six times. Deion Butler seems to be the receiver you want in Seattle when it comes to red zone scoring from here on out. Mike Williams is the yardage monger but Butler is Hasselbeck's go to guy inside the twenty. Justin Forsett continues to be the back with most upside and the one who is most dependable but it's clear no matter what that Carrol likes using a two back system regardless of who is available. Marshawn Lynch only averaged 2.7 YPC but did score and almost doubled Forsett's touches.
CHICAGO BEARS: Cutler did look a bit rusty, but it was hard not to when Seattle was down his throat constantly and sacked him six times. Their biggest problem was on 3rd down where they went 0-12. That won't win games period and the fact Chicago was even in the race was surprising. They will get things righted this week and hopefully fix the Offensive line issues as the season goes on. Johnny Knox has emerged as the only receiver worth owning on the team and Forte continues to be a threat in all aspects of the game. Chicago seems to have issues when Greg Olsen isn't involved heavily and is something Martz needs to look at going ahead.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: Chris Ivory showed the Bucs run defense for what it was, rushing for 158 yds. making all sorts of passing lanes available for Brees. Brees torched the Bucs secondary for 3 TD's in a game that had the Saints looking as good as they did last year only a week after looking lost and searching for that touch they seemed to have lost. Chris Ivory may be able to hold the job in at least a split carry capacity when Pierre Thomas returns. While this was a great day for them, I wouldn't yet say that Meachem or Colston are back yet. Given that all aspects of the game were firing here, we should wait and see if it can translate a few weeks in row before getting comfortable.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: Just when the Bucs were using Kareem Huggins and seeing how much he opens the offense up....Huggins suffers what appears to be a major knee ligament injury. The Bucs now need an answer at RB more than ever with Cadillac proving valuable in the pass game but averaging only 1.8 YPC on the ground. A trade before the deadline would not be surprising as they lack depth at the position. Josh Freeman still looked comfortable in the pocket but was a victim of bad communication on routes the receivers were supposed to be running. Until they find an answer at RB though, the Bucs will be a passing first team and able to be kept in check. Mike Williams and Freeman continue to be the only fantasy starts you can depend on week to week.
MIAMI DOLPHINS: Henne shut me up for a week at least providing his best performance efficiency wise this game. The Dolphins finally got that balanced run attack they've been lacking all year out of Williams and Brown which led to a wearing down of the defense and allowing things to open up for Henne. I would expect Sporano to take note and force feed his backs from here on out instead of trying to make Henne beat teams. Brandon Marshall put up 127 yards and the use of Fasano showed yet another option the Dolphins should pay more attention too going ahead. While a good win, the Dolphins were facing an injury laden defense lacking mostly it's top play makers.
GREEN BAY PACKERS: Aaron Rogers looked a bit off after missing practice time with the concussion, but it was more a result of no Jermichael Finley and the mediocre performance of Brandon Jackson that had him looking to his only threat left in Greg Jennings. The Packers have now become more one dimensional and need someone to step up as a legitimate threat either on the ground or at receiver. Especially with the defense being down with injury issues, the Packers will need to find ways to score and keep up with teams. For now, Jennings and Rogers are the only two dependable fantasy starts.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: As if things couldn't have gotten worse, the Chargers lost Malcom Floyd to a hamstring injury and Gates to an ankle injury that seems somewhat serious. Rivers was quickly left with only Crayton and Davis as his only reliable threats which made life easier for the Rams to pull out a win. Tolbert was limited in action but did post the score and is about what you can expect going forward. Gates looks to be questionable for next week since he is unable to put pressure on the ankle and we'll wait on word of the seriousness of Floyd's hammy though a speed guy like him will be limited even if it is not that serious. Buster Davis and Patrick Crayton should see huge boosts in value until Naanee returns and then I think Buster Davis is the one to own since he will stretch the field.
ST. LOUIS RAMS: Bradford continues his great inaugural season by managing the game and limiting his errors. Even without Clayton, the Rams may have found a replacement in Denario Alexander who caught 4 balls for 78yds and a score. Steven Jackson continues to be the work horse, rushing for 109 on 29 carries. If the Rams can keep finding big games from their WR then this is a team week in and out that must be taken seriously. Their biggest problem right now is on the road where they need to find ways to win as well. Denario Alexander should be taken seriously and warrants a waiver claim.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: As predicted, Branch quickly became Brady's main target and A. Hernandez' role was greatly improved in a tight fought game. Branch will continue to be Brady's new top target until Tate opens things up and gets comfortable as the down field stretcher. Regardless, look for the Pats to become more of the mid range pass teams that puts together long drives as their new identity. Ben Jarvis-Green-Ellis rushed for the score, but Danny Woodhead may be the back you want going ahead getting the majority of the carries (11) and rushing for 63 yards. Fantasy wise, Branch and Welker will be a toss up game to game as to who is more valuable, but Hernandez and Tate will most likely be the red zone targets. Another game or two should paint a clearer picture as to who plays what roles in this new style offense.
BALTIMORE RAVENS: The Ravens pretty much had the game in their hands but the defense was worn down on long drives in the second half. Everyone who was supposed to make an impact did, but the loss of Heap seemed to throw Flacco off just a small bit not having that solid check down guy. He was solid with the deep ball however and will continue to have success. Had this game been against almost any other team it would have resulted in a win, but facing Brady all they needed to allow was a small window which Brady found. Everything stays the same for the Ravens but keep an eye on the severity of Heap's injury.
DETROIT LIONS: Shaun Hill suffered a broken arm and Drew Stanton took over leading the Lions on an 87 yd TD pass to Megatron who didn't seem hampered by the shoulder issues he had all week. The biggest glaring problem for Detroit was 4 first downs on penalties they allowed the Giants offense. The good news is that Stafford should return next week and the Lions have enough weapons to stay competitive. They need to get over the road loss hump and find a run game before they can become a legitimate team though. They keep trying to find solutions defensively but are incapable of stopping offenses. Count on more production from the receivers and for Best to find more running room next week with Stafford back in the line up.
NY GIANTS: The defense is back in top form, allowing Manning and the run game to flourish. Jacobs and Bradshaw have found their niche and will be a great duo if they stay healthy. Manning is at his most efficient when the run game is thriving and it's not all on him. This is another team where week to week the receiver with the big game will change, but Nicks is by far the one you have to have pencilled in no matter what as the starter. Jacobs is for now a solid flex play, bye week sub but can move up to #2 RB status with another week of what looks to be trending as the norm for him.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: All signs point to Deshaun Jackson missing the next game as his concussion was deemed severe and he was walked off the field by trainers helping him. Depending on the concussion grade, he could be held out even past the bye week. Maclin stepped up with a two TD day and expect Celek's value to rise since he becomes the team's #2 threat. Kolb settled in well and may be causing a QB controvery when Vick returns possibly this week. Reid says Vick is the starter though I find it more of what he's been ordered to say that what he wants. Kolb may actually be the better QB in this situation for as long as Jackson is out. Not having Jackson available will allow teams to bring up an extra guy to spy him and leave only one safety back to protect against Maclin. With Kolb, who is more of a pocket guy that can spread the ball around, all receivers have to be taken into account as legitimate threats because of the throws Kolb can make in this system.
ATLANTA FALCONS: I did like how Matt Ryan spread the love to Jenkins now that he's back to health but his Mike Turners average performances are becoming cause for concern. Atlanta is a scarier team with Turner running at full speed effectiveness. He seems to be lacking that extra gear this year and while Atlanta has gotten away with it, they will need him to be more of a threat going ahead against the better teams such as the Eagles. While he has to be a start, he has yet to prove that #1 RB status expected of him. The NFC South is still an open race so despite the loss, Atlanta has time to fix the lingering issues.
CLEVELAND BROWNS: Both Cribbs and Massaqoui left due to head injuries but Colt McCoy showed promise and composure against a top defense despite an uphill battle. Peyton Hillis was able to be the Steelers focus and was limited to 41yds. Cleveland is stuck in building mode but is playing better than their record or stats indicate. They are just one play maker away from becoming a more justifiable opponent, but until they produce a secure wide out, teams will be able to focus in on their only two weapons in Hillis and Cribbs. Keep an eye on Cribbs and Massoquoi's injuries since this severly dampens Hillis' ability to be productive.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Big Ben came back and Mike Wallace benefited posting 3 catches for 90 yds. and a score. Hines Ward also returned to his normal mid yardage TD day but it should be Mendenhall in the end who benefits most from Ben's return. Having a legitimate passing game allows all kinds of lanes for Mendenhall and things should only get easier for him from here. If this was Ben's first game back, then it was a sure sign of starting him at QB going forward or using him as trade bait since he was most likely the third QB on your team if you have him. With the struggles of so many QB's use it to your advantage in a trade to fill holes on your team.
KC CHIEFS: Todd Hailey finally gave Charles a better split of the carries and it paid off as the Chiefs ran for 193 yards between he and Thomas Jones. Cassel had his best game of the year, throwing for 3 TD's, two going to Dwayne Bowe. All this should be tempered by the fact he was facing the NFL's worst pass defense. The Chiefs had this game won had it not been for a bad pass interference call against them at the end and the defense played overall a good game for the second straight week against a high powered offense. The Chiefs will continue to be a contender in their division but will need to get some of those breaks in their corner after falling victim to them. Bowe should be a sell high candidate this week as a game like this isn't to be expected again. Both Jones and Charles could be the only running tandem that are starter worthy week to week.
HOUSTON TEXANS: The Texans pretty much gave us what we expected out of them with Andre Johnson getting 138 yds. and a score and Arian Foster continuing his fantasy elite year. The bigger story is Derrik Ward's solid performance again that makes him a must have for Foster owners and the locked in number two back in Houston. Owen Daniels has now had a few solid weeks and should be considered a safe TE start moving ahead as Schaub is relying more on him as an option.
NY JETS: Sanchez continues to instill faith in the passing game despite his mistakes and has looked more confident since the return of Holmes to the line up. As long as teams are forced to give attention to the pass game it will allow the run game to flourish. Tomlinson scored twice, and was kept in despite situations where we've seen Greene get the call which was telling. Greene has fallen back into a relief role only and can't be counted on to give more than 50 yds. on average a game. He will get the occasional score, but he is at best a flex play unless Tomlinson is injured. Edwards and Keller continue to be Sanchez' top red zone targets.
DENVER BRONCOS: Eddie Royal pulled a groin which actually makes the Broncos no more readable in the fantasy realm since Demaryus Thomas stepped in with a larger role. The Broncos receivers are much like the Saints corps this year where each has value week to week but none has the number one start locked down. While Gaffney and Lloyd are the two you can trust most, Thomas will only get better and Orton seemed to key on him in the second half with Royal injured. Running wise, the Broncos are still not dependable as they did scrap together 100 yds. rushing but only through a combined effort.
OAKLAND RAIDERS: A week after looking so good, the Raiders deflated themselves providing a lack luster offensive performance. Campbell went 8-21 with two picks and a passer rating of 10.7... The Offense as a whole could not get anything done. There were no real indications of anything here other than fantasy wise this team has hit a wall as far as anyone worthy starting until Gradkowski and McFadden return.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers: Crabtree and Davis are benefiting now that Smith has his back against the wall and is taking chances in order to keep his job. The new looser Smith wasn't necessarily better, but it does open up the fantasy prospects for Crabtree and Davis moving ahead. Gore rushed for 147 yds. and if Smith can expand on this and show signs of life in the pass game, Gore could expect to have more games like this on the ground. Crabtree has grown week to week and looks to be a reliable #3 WR.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS: The presence of Moss alone has had a visible impact on what the Vikings are able to do offensively. Berrian, Harvin, and Peterson have all been more productive since the trade and as Moss settles in things will only get better. While Moss will get the looks Harvin or Schiancoe normally receive inside the 20's, he creates favorable matches for everyone else on the field. Schiancoe seems to be the one initially most hurt from the trade and it may be time to trade him for some value while you can still get it. Harvin played more of an all around role here, but Berrian had his most productive day yet largely because he wasn't the focus. Other than Moss, Harvin is the only every week WR start you can depend on to contribute week in and out.
DALLAS COWBOYS: Romo's 2 picks and the Cowboys special teams were the cause this week as the team continues to find ways to lose. Felix Jones should be penciled in as the lead back from here on out and provides the most fantasy value going forward at RB. Dez Bryant's role continues to grow but Roy Williams should be considered now a weekly start as he and Romo show they indeed have a connection. Miles Austin was largely limited as he was the Vikings main focus, but as teams are forced to reconcile with covering Williams, he will get more of the open space he is used to in the coming weeks. Other than Marion Barber, all your Cowboys are trust worthy starts though Jason Witten seems to have taken a step back in value with Williams' emergence this year. If you have a solid #2 TE and can part with Witten, it may be wise to get some decent value for him while you can.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS: The Redskins are the NFL's version of Rocky Balboa. They get beaten, but deliver blow after blow in return, hanging around long enough to beat you in the closing rounds. While it didn't work out for them this week, they continue to be a well balanced team that doesn't do anything great but play solid football for four quarters. On top of that, pray your fantasy studs don't have Washington on the schedule. Rogers, Finley, Vick, and now Addai have all been injured when playing the Skins in three weeks straight robbing teams of essential players the week after playing them. Anthony Armstrong looks to be a solid #3 WR with alot of upside. A miss thrown pass by Mcnabb in the 4th quarter could have resulted in a long pass setting them up for a tie, but it does show the confidence Mcnabb and Shanny have in him after two good performances. Cooley left with a concussion and will be worth monitoring. Ryan Torain should have all but locked in the starting role and is a legit RB #2 if you have him.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: It's not clear what Addai's injury was after the game, but it looked to be serious as he was escorted into the locker room looking ginger. Given his injury history, pay close attention as it may mean Mike Hart will be the most trust worthy back in the interim. Austin Collie seems to have lost value with Garcon's return to the line up, but still shows value with the TD catch. Trusting either one of them more than a #3 WR until roles even out is a crap shoot since either one could be in line for a big game any week. Collie and Garcon should be sell high candidates if you can get the upper tier price they merit for right now and use it to solidify your weaker areas.
Saturday, October 16, 2010
WEEK 6 PREVIEW AND GUT CHECK
Amazing what havoc a blocked ear can create from the neck up. So, here is an abbreviated version of Week 6 since this is all last minute.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at ST. LOUIS RAMS: We saw what no Mark Clayton did for the Rams last week against Detroit. Laurent Robinson needs to step up big time this week. Ryan Mathews missed Wednesday practice so it looks like Tolbert will still get his share of the carries. Even in a reduced role Tolbert should be able to score as the Chargers grind it down with the lead in the second half.
SD 31-STL 17.
SLEEPER: Laurent Robinson St. Louis....While he didn't look great last week, someone will need to stretch the field and get Clayton's looks.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at CHICAGO BEARS: This is a game that has upset possibility written all over it. Seahawks have had two weeks to prepare, Cutler hasn't seen live action in two weeks, and Briggs looks like he will be out this week. The Seahawks should be able to focus on Forte until Cutler knocks off the rust.
SEA 24-CHI 21.
SLEEPER: John Carlson SEA...With Branch departing there is only one guy Hasselbeck trusts more when it's time to score.
MIAMI DOLPHINS at GB PACKERS: Fortunately for the Pack, Rogers looks ready to go but will be missing Finley who was primed for a huge year. They are lucky enough to have Donald Lee whom stepped in immediately last week as if he had never lost the job. Miami is another team finding it hard to put it all together where each week at least one aspect of their game vanishes. The burden is ultimately going to fall on Henne's shoulders since he had the highest expectations. Like Seattle, Miami has had an extra week but you can't trust a team who has yet to show a balanced attack in Lambeau.
GB 28-MIA 17.
SLEEPER: B. Hartline MIA....With Woodson getting Marshall, Henne will need to find his secondary receivers with better match up's.
BALTIMORE RAVENS at NE PATRIOTS: Yes the Pats got something for Moss while they could and things were heading south fast, but NE is a different team now until Tate proves he is ready. When you have Brady throwing you the ball, it's not hard to prove it either. However, Tate has yet to face all out attention and gets his first taste against one of the top pass defenses. There will be some errors on the young guys part due to the opponent as he and Brady learn how to adapt during in game situations. Welker will be relied on heavily to carry the load. Baltimore comes in to town hitting their game in stride and looking every bit the contender we assumed they would be. With the NE youth in the secondary, there will be much to be had for the talented WR/TE core of Baltimore. NE has taken a small step back this last week and Baltimore seems to be focused.
BAL 31-NE 27.
SLEEPER: Aaron Hernandez NE....His role should grow with Moss out of town and he will cause problems even for the Baltimore secondary. Look for Brady to chip away at this defense and find Hernandez in the red zone.
NO SAINTS at TB BUCCANEERS: The Saints are coming off a tough road loss in Arizona and the Bucs come off a road win in Cincinnati where Freeman made the two biggest throws of his career and was named NFC Offensive player of the week. The Saints have proven they are not yet close to where they were last year, in large part due to the loss of Bush and Thomas, but they were not putting up the same numbers when they had them. The receivers all seem to have loss just a step and we are seeing how important a role the backfield plays in this scheme. The Bucs have been carried by Mike Williams and the pass game despite Cadillac Williams showing signs he has broken down. The telling part here is that despite his rhetoric, Raheem Morris continues to stick with Caddy because of his blitz pick up awareness. At some point the Bucs need to get some new blood in the run game and it may come here with Mike Williams listed as questionable with a foot injury. The Bucs beat NO last year on their road to the Super Bowl and have the ability to carry that over here since it is a home game. The Bucs secondary is among the most opportunistic and could pose problems if the Saints don't get a drastic improvement from their run game.
TB 24-NO 21.
SLEEPER: Aurellious Benn TB....Benn was much more a part of the pass game last week and if Williams is limited could see an even bigger role this week, sneaking for a score.
DETROIT LIONS at NY GIANTS: The Lions are coming off their best defensive effort but it will be much harder to hold the Giants at bay on the road. All reports are that Megatron is not going to be healthy even if he plays, not being able to use his shoulder normally. Bad news considering the Giants are 1st in Pass Defense. Brandon Jacobs has found his niche in the Giants run game and Bradshaw has found his speed again, running with burst. The Giants already had a favorable match up here, and the limited Megatron only makes it better.
NYG 31-DET 20
SLEEPER: Pettigrew DET....The Lions will need to rely on him with limited options in the pass game. Look for more touches and yardage with a score.
ATLANTA FALCONS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Atlanta continues to win relying on the Turner and White show but face their second road game in a row after beating a punch less Browns team. The Falcons face a much tougher team here especially with the return of Assante Samuel. While Atlanta's run defense is 8th, they are facing an Eagles team that excels in the pass game and will cause match up problems for them. Kolb has looked better each week and should be able to put it together here.
PHI 24-ATL 20
SLEEPER: Harry Douglas ATL...Ryan should have to check down to Douglas often this week since the Eagles are capable of limiting White.
CLEVELAND BROWNS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS: The return of Big Ben couldn't have come at a more opportune time. Cleveland is 18th against the pass and 23rd against the run meaning Ben will have the luxury of being eased back into playing shape mentally. Peyton Hillis says he will be 100% by Sunday, but the bigger issue is how will Colt McCoy ease the pressure when the Steelers stack the box and force him to beat them? Not the best match up for his first start.
PIT 24-CLE 14.
SLEEPER: B. Watson CLE...A young QB's favorite target is his TE. McCoy should rely on him heavily this game.
KC CHIEFS at HOU TEXANS: It was the KC offense that sputtered last week, but the defense confused Peyton Manning making him look quite average. Good news for a pass defense ranked 25th overall. If they can be close to as effective against Houston, whom have had their own issues with an ailing Johnson then this could be a great game. Both teams are strong against the run but are at the bottom of the pass game. While Houston gets the advantage, Andre Johnson's lingering health issues drops that advantage down quite a bit. Cassel looked much better last week, but his receivers failed to help him, dropping catch able passes in key situations. The game should come down to who runs the ball more effectively against the opponents strength. Given KC has two options, KC pulls this one out barely.
KC 24-HOU 21
SLEEPER: C. Chambers KC....While Mcluster is by now a known threat the Texans will pay close attention to, Chambers has been silent most the year, limited by Cassel's progression. Chambers has a great match up here and should be largely forgotten given the KC weapons that can do more damage.
OAKLAND RAIDERS at SF 49ERS: Nobody could have expected these two teams to be where they are today, SF at 0-5 and Oakland coming off a win against the Chargers? Campbell gets the start again and faces a SF defense ranked 21st against the pass and 18th against the run. Coming off what has to be the biggest Raider win of the last two years, look for the Raiders to come out with a rejuvenated swagger they have lacked in recent years. This is a game where Campbell could re-solidify his role as starter with a win and where Alex Smith could finally give way to David Carr if he struggles. Given the direction these two teams are headed, Oakland pulls it out.
OAK 24-SF 20
SLEEPER: J. Morgan SF....Morgan has the best match up against Oaklands pass defense and will need to be involved if SF wants to move the chains.
NY JETS at DENVER BRONCOS: The Jets pass defense has fallen to 23rd with the loss and injuries to Revis and now travel to Denver facing the league's 2nd ranked pass offense. Revis seems like a no go this week and even if available, he won't be the Revis we expect. Denver has too many pass weapons to attack this secondary anyway and will throw since they have zero run game. On the flip side, Denver has the 25th rated run defense in yardage allowed which poses an easy match up for LT and Greene. With the emergence of the Jets pass game coming to life, this could become a game of who has the ball last. Given Denver's ability to strike fast against a Revis-less Jets, Denver pulls it out.
DEN 28-JETS 24.
SLEEPER: Correll Buckhalter DEN...Could see a lot of touches flaring out as a receiver, has been the most effective runner when healthy.
DALLAS COWBOYS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS: This is a game that could spell out the rest of the season for each team. Wade Phillips job hangs in the balance regardless of what Jerry Jones says and the Vikings are hoping that the Randy Moss trade continues to pay off as it did after only 3 days with the team. Dallas is 12th in both passing and rushing defense while the Vikes are 6th against the pass and 14th versus the run. This is a must win for both teams but only one of them is making the changes for the better right now and showing they are determined to get better. Everything the Cowboys are going through right now points to a failure by Wade Phillips and will end up costing his job.
MIN 28-DAL 24
SLEEPER: Schiancoe....Largely limited last week, we saw what Harvin was able to do last week with Moss in the fold and it should be Schiancoe's turn they learn to use him along side Moss.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS: The Skins keep doing it by hanging on till the end despite their short comings. The Colts keep having to find new ways to try and get it done in the face of short comings. Much like the Saints, the Colts do not seem like the same team they were last year, lacking the speed and execution this offense relies so heavily on. Luckily the Skins are 30th against the pass and coming off a rough game against KC should help the Colts fix what's been hurting them.
COLTS 32-WASH 24
SLEEPER: Anthony Armstrong WASH...Shanny pronounced him the #2 WR and promised he would see more looks as the teams field stretcher.
WEEK 6 GUT CHECK PLAYERS
1. ANTHONY ARMSTRONG-WASH: The last two weeks Armstrong has solidified himself as the Jeremy Maclin type role Mcnabb is used to. More of a hybrid since he stretches the field more than Maclin, Armstrong has been given a big vote of confidence and could put up some big numbers against a struggling Colts secondary.
2. MIKE TOLBERT-SD: While most have him bumped down expecting the return from Mathews, I think he still sees his fair share and is a lock for a score against a ST. Louis team reeling from the loss of Clayton.
3. JHAVID BEST-DET: The Lions will be without a healthy Calvin Johnson leaving them to rely heavily on Best who is the most explosive weapon without Johnson there. Expect him to see enough touches to make him relevant despite playing against the Giants.
4. Darren McFadden-OAK: He should return this week and while Bush gets the starters role, it will be Mcfadden's speed that hurts the 49ers most. The 49ers have had more trouble with speed backs than down hill type runners. McFadden's hammy health is of primary concern but all indications say he is ready.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at ST. LOUIS RAMS: We saw what no Mark Clayton did for the Rams last week against Detroit. Laurent Robinson needs to step up big time this week. Ryan Mathews missed Wednesday practice so it looks like Tolbert will still get his share of the carries. Even in a reduced role Tolbert should be able to score as the Chargers grind it down with the lead in the second half.
SD 31-STL 17.
SLEEPER: Laurent Robinson St. Louis....While he didn't look great last week, someone will need to stretch the field and get Clayton's looks.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at CHICAGO BEARS: This is a game that has upset possibility written all over it. Seahawks have had two weeks to prepare, Cutler hasn't seen live action in two weeks, and Briggs looks like he will be out this week. The Seahawks should be able to focus on Forte until Cutler knocks off the rust.
SEA 24-CHI 21.
SLEEPER: John Carlson SEA...With Branch departing there is only one guy Hasselbeck trusts more when it's time to score.
MIAMI DOLPHINS at GB PACKERS: Fortunately for the Pack, Rogers looks ready to go but will be missing Finley who was primed for a huge year. They are lucky enough to have Donald Lee whom stepped in immediately last week as if he had never lost the job. Miami is another team finding it hard to put it all together where each week at least one aspect of their game vanishes. The burden is ultimately going to fall on Henne's shoulders since he had the highest expectations. Like Seattle, Miami has had an extra week but you can't trust a team who has yet to show a balanced attack in Lambeau.
GB 28-MIA 17.
SLEEPER: B. Hartline MIA....With Woodson getting Marshall, Henne will need to find his secondary receivers with better match up's.
BALTIMORE RAVENS at NE PATRIOTS: Yes the Pats got something for Moss while they could and things were heading south fast, but NE is a different team now until Tate proves he is ready. When you have Brady throwing you the ball, it's not hard to prove it either. However, Tate has yet to face all out attention and gets his first taste against one of the top pass defenses. There will be some errors on the young guys part due to the opponent as he and Brady learn how to adapt during in game situations. Welker will be relied on heavily to carry the load. Baltimore comes in to town hitting their game in stride and looking every bit the contender we assumed they would be. With the NE youth in the secondary, there will be much to be had for the talented WR/TE core of Baltimore. NE has taken a small step back this last week and Baltimore seems to be focused.
BAL 31-NE 27.
SLEEPER: Aaron Hernandez NE....His role should grow with Moss out of town and he will cause problems even for the Baltimore secondary. Look for Brady to chip away at this defense and find Hernandez in the red zone.
NO SAINTS at TB BUCCANEERS: The Saints are coming off a tough road loss in Arizona and the Bucs come off a road win in Cincinnati where Freeman made the two biggest throws of his career and was named NFC Offensive player of the week. The Saints have proven they are not yet close to where they were last year, in large part due to the loss of Bush and Thomas, but they were not putting up the same numbers when they had them. The receivers all seem to have loss just a step and we are seeing how important a role the backfield plays in this scheme. The Bucs have been carried by Mike Williams and the pass game despite Cadillac Williams showing signs he has broken down. The telling part here is that despite his rhetoric, Raheem Morris continues to stick with Caddy because of his blitz pick up awareness. At some point the Bucs need to get some new blood in the run game and it may come here with Mike Williams listed as questionable with a foot injury. The Bucs beat NO last year on their road to the Super Bowl and have the ability to carry that over here since it is a home game. The Bucs secondary is among the most opportunistic and could pose problems if the Saints don't get a drastic improvement from their run game.
TB 24-NO 21.
SLEEPER: Aurellious Benn TB....Benn was much more a part of the pass game last week and if Williams is limited could see an even bigger role this week, sneaking for a score.
DETROIT LIONS at NY GIANTS: The Lions are coming off their best defensive effort but it will be much harder to hold the Giants at bay on the road. All reports are that Megatron is not going to be healthy even if he plays, not being able to use his shoulder normally. Bad news considering the Giants are 1st in Pass Defense. Brandon Jacobs has found his niche in the Giants run game and Bradshaw has found his speed again, running with burst. The Giants already had a favorable match up here, and the limited Megatron only makes it better.
NYG 31-DET 20
SLEEPER: Pettigrew DET....The Lions will need to rely on him with limited options in the pass game. Look for more touches and yardage with a score.
ATLANTA FALCONS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Atlanta continues to win relying on the Turner and White show but face their second road game in a row after beating a punch less Browns team. The Falcons face a much tougher team here especially with the return of Assante Samuel. While Atlanta's run defense is 8th, they are facing an Eagles team that excels in the pass game and will cause match up problems for them. Kolb has looked better each week and should be able to put it together here.
PHI 24-ATL 20
SLEEPER: Harry Douglas ATL...Ryan should have to check down to Douglas often this week since the Eagles are capable of limiting White.
CLEVELAND BROWNS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS: The return of Big Ben couldn't have come at a more opportune time. Cleveland is 18th against the pass and 23rd against the run meaning Ben will have the luxury of being eased back into playing shape mentally. Peyton Hillis says he will be 100% by Sunday, but the bigger issue is how will Colt McCoy ease the pressure when the Steelers stack the box and force him to beat them? Not the best match up for his first start.
PIT 24-CLE 14.
SLEEPER: B. Watson CLE...A young QB's favorite target is his TE. McCoy should rely on him heavily this game.
KC CHIEFS at HOU TEXANS: It was the KC offense that sputtered last week, but the defense confused Peyton Manning making him look quite average. Good news for a pass defense ranked 25th overall. If they can be close to as effective against Houston, whom have had their own issues with an ailing Johnson then this could be a great game. Both teams are strong against the run but are at the bottom of the pass game. While Houston gets the advantage, Andre Johnson's lingering health issues drops that advantage down quite a bit. Cassel looked much better last week, but his receivers failed to help him, dropping catch able passes in key situations. The game should come down to who runs the ball more effectively against the opponents strength. Given KC has two options, KC pulls this one out barely.
KC 24-HOU 21
SLEEPER: C. Chambers KC....While Mcluster is by now a known threat the Texans will pay close attention to, Chambers has been silent most the year, limited by Cassel's progression. Chambers has a great match up here and should be largely forgotten given the KC weapons that can do more damage.
OAKLAND RAIDERS at SF 49ERS: Nobody could have expected these two teams to be where they are today, SF at 0-5 and Oakland coming off a win against the Chargers? Campbell gets the start again and faces a SF defense ranked 21st against the pass and 18th against the run. Coming off what has to be the biggest Raider win of the last two years, look for the Raiders to come out with a rejuvenated swagger they have lacked in recent years. This is a game where Campbell could re-solidify his role as starter with a win and where Alex Smith could finally give way to David Carr if he struggles. Given the direction these two teams are headed, Oakland pulls it out.
OAK 24-SF 20
SLEEPER: J. Morgan SF....Morgan has the best match up against Oaklands pass defense and will need to be involved if SF wants to move the chains.
NY JETS at DENVER BRONCOS: The Jets pass defense has fallen to 23rd with the loss and injuries to Revis and now travel to Denver facing the league's 2nd ranked pass offense. Revis seems like a no go this week and even if available, he won't be the Revis we expect. Denver has too many pass weapons to attack this secondary anyway and will throw since they have zero run game. On the flip side, Denver has the 25th rated run defense in yardage allowed which poses an easy match up for LT and Greene. With the emergence of the Jets pass game coming to life, this could become a game of who has the ball last. Given Denver's ability to strike fast against a Revis-less Jets, Denver pulls it out.
DEN 28-JETS 24.
SLEEPER: Correll Buckhalter DEN...Could see a lot of touches flaring out as a receiver, has been the most effective runner when healthy.
DALLAS COWBOYS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS: This is a game that could spell out the rest of the season for each team. Wade Phillips job hangs in the balance regardless of what Jerry Jones says and the Vikings are hoping that the Randy Moss trade continues to pay off as it did after only 3 days with the team. Dallas is 12th in both passing and rushing defense while the Vikes are 6th against the pass and 14th versus the run. This is a must win for both teams but only one of them is making the changes for the better right now and showing they are determined to get better. Everything the Cowboys are going through right now points to a failure by Wade Phillips and will end up costing his job.
MIN 28-DAL 24
SLEEPER: Schiancoe....Largely limited last week, we saw what Harvin was able to do last week with Moss in the fold and it should be Schiancoe's turn they learn to use him along side Moss.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS: The Skins keep doing it by hanging on till the end despite their short comings. The Colts keep having to find new ways to try and get it done in the face of short comings. Much like the Saints, the Colts do not seem like the same team they were last year, lacking the speed and execution this offense relies so heavily on. Luckily the Skins are 30th against the pass and coming off a rough game against KC should help the Colts fix what's been hurting them.
COLTS 32-WASH 24
SLEEPER: Anthony Armstrong WASH...Shanny pronounced him the #2 WR and promised he would see more looks as the teams field stretcher.
WEEK 6 GUT CHECK PLAYERS
1. ANTHONY ARMSTRONG-WASH: The last two weeks Armstrong has solidified himself as the Jeremy Maclin type role Mcnabb is used to. More of a hybrid since he stretches the field more than Maclin, Armstrong has been given a big vote of confidence and could put up some big numbers against a struggling Colts secondary.
2. MIKE TOLBERT-SD: While most have him bumped down expecting the return from Mathews, I think he still sees his fair share and is a lock for a score against a ST. Louis team reeling from the loss of Clayton.
3. JHAVID BEST-DET: The Lions will be without a healthy Calvin Johnson leaving them to rely heavily on Best who is the most explosive weapon without Johnson there. Expect him to see enough touches to make him relevant despite playing against the Giants.
4. Darren McFadden-OAK: He should return this week and while Bush gets the starters role, it will be Mcfadden's speed that hurts the 49ers most. The 49ers have had more trouble with speed backs than down hill type runners. McFadden's hammy health is of primary concern but all indications say he is ready.
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Week 6 Tracker
Five things to watch this week...
1. How will the Broncos defense respond to losing Robert Ayers and Brian Dawkins. the Jets job just got a whole lot easier with the loss of two of the Broncos defensive play makers. Shonn Greene,LT, and the Jets offensive weapons should get a bump in the rankings with this news.
2. Assante Samuel has been cleared to play. The Eagles secondary gets a big boost this week just in time to cover Atlanta's Dez White.While he is bound to be rusty, he will be an upgrade at what they have. If he can be effective in limiting White then this defense could focus on Turner and limit Atlanta's scoring abilities.
3. Aaron Rogers concussion severity. Rogers is one of those rare QB's that doesn't need to work all week to be effective come Sunday. While teams tend to be on the cautious side, each team is different and while they will not risk his health, if he seems good to go they will let him play. Green Bay needs to win with the division still in play. Without him, the only two Packers worth starting in Jennings and Driver fall way down the charts.
4. What is up with Brett Favre's arm? He was seen holding his elbow late in the fourth quarter and while he continued to zip the ball, it could have an effect on his overall production and that of Randy Moss. Also, Sidney Rice is off crutches and could be back in two weeks. Minnesota will be a serious second half of the season team and will contend despite their slow start.
5. Deion Branch back to New England. While all the "experts" don't see Branch making a huge impact, I think otherwise. Tate is thrust into the Randy Moss role and while he has all the tools and will produce it will be a process. With Branch lining up next to Welker and the attention paid on him, Branch will have no problem finding holes in the defenses. Remember how he was Brady's favorite target years ago? Yes he has slowed, but when you are the third WR with Brady at QB you have great fantasy value.
1. How will the Broncos defense respond to losing Robert Ayers and Brian Dawkins. the Jets job just got a whole lot easier with the loss of two of the Broncos defensive play makers. Shonn Greene,LT, and the Jets offensive weapons should get a bump in the rankings with this news.
2. Assante Samuel has been cleared to play. The Eagles secondary gets a big boost this week just in time to cover Atlanta's Dez White.While he is bound to be rusty, he will be an upgrade at what they have. If he can be effective in limiting White then this defense could focus on Turner and limit Atlanta's scoring abilities.
3. Aaron Rogers concussion severity. Rogers is one of those rare QB's that doesn't need to work all week to be effective come Sunday. While teams tend to be on the cautious side, each team is different and while they will not risk his health, if he seems good to go they will let him play. Green Bay needs to win with the division still in play. Without him, the only two Packers worth starting in Jennings and Driver fall way down the charts.
4. What is up with Brett Favre's arm? He was seen holding his elbow late in the fourth quarter and while he continued to zip the ball, it could have an effect on his overall production and that of Randy Moss. Also, Sidney Rice is off crutches and could be back in two weeks. Minnesota will be a serious second half of the season team and will contend despite their slow start.
5. Deion Branch back to New England. While all the "experts" don't see Branch making a huge impact, I think otherwise. Tate is thrust into the Randy Moss role and while he has all the tools and will produce it will be a process. With Branch lining up next to Welker and the attention paid on him, Branch will have no problem finding holes in the defenses. Remember how he was Brady's favorite target years ago? Yes he has slowed, but when you are the third WR with Brady at QB you have great fantasy value.
What We Learned Sunday
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: David Gerrard needs to feel uncomfortable with his job. Since the signing of Edwards, Gerrard has looked like the guy Byron Leftwich was run out of town for. Remember when he stole the job from Byron with his stellar play? Ironically, Gerrard has become quite similar to him. Ever since being the unquestioned QB he has played like someone with nothing to lose. Now, with someone breathing down his back (in theory at least) Gerrard has taken it up a notch. Mercedes Lewis is his favorite target....Lewis spoke in preseason how it was the first time he stayed in Jacksonville year round just so he and Gerrard could work together and it is showing. Lewis tied Jacksonville's TE record for TD's in a season this week and there should be more to come. Only play Mike Simms-Walker in fantasy when he makes a stink about not being involved. So far the two times he's complained are the two times he scored and put up good numbers. MJD is getting better, but he is still not what we have been accustomed to. He has always been able to beat teams even when they stack the box, but this year he seems to have lost just a bit. I think he is playing through a minor injury that is going to require surgery in the off-season but the official status is that he has none.
BUFFALO BILLS: They are much better with Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Defense just can't stop anybody and will be this team's killer game after game. Fred Jackson is the back you want here although Spiller will have his games here and there. Lee Evans dropped 84 yds. with a TD and is this team's top threat at WR. Consistency will be the problem though as they play in one of the toughest divisions. The best way to make decisions on when to use Bills players is obvious...only against weak and middle of the road defenses.
DENVER BRONCOS: Brandon Lloyd is for real and found a system he actually excels in. He seems to have found a second life in pass happy Denver and is a dependable start every week. As for Gaffney and Royal, it is a roll of the dice week to week who will be the number two worthy of starting. Denver has no run game and it will lose them games....you have to be able to run the ball in the NFL and until Denver finds a way to do that, they will continue to fail against good secondaries. When your top rusher only gains 26 yds. you are not going to win. Kyle Orton is a top tier QB....zero run game means passing all day and Orton has done just that, but also looked very effective.
BALTIMORE RAVENS: They have too many ways to beat you....In a game where no receiver surpassed 58 yds, Ray Rice ran for 133 yds and two scores. With the talent they have at receiver, any one of them can explode on any play. When you need to stay vigilant against them and keep Ray Rice at bay it becomes an issue very few teams will be able to handle this year. Couple that with a top defense, the Offense can afford off days and still win the game. Baltimore will make the playoffs and win the division.
KC CHIEFS: They finally came back down to earth this week although they didn't make it easy for Manning. This team is for real and have the ability to make a run for the division this year. The defense played great, but if you give Peyton enough chances, he will eventually make you pay. Even if it's just putting together drives that result in crucial field goals. The Chiefs beat themselves in my eyes. Bowe and Moeaki both let scores get away from them and critical 3rd down passes were dropped. Cassel actually looked good and put the ball where it was on the receivers to do something with it. They just didn't. Jamaal Charles is the fantasy back you want here out of the two and deserves to get the 16-8 carry split he did in this game every week. While he wasn't able to break away for one this week, he is the more explosive and dynamic ball carrier here. Thomas Jones was running behind a great offensive line in NY and while KC has a good one they are not the Jets. Other than Moeaki at TE, no Chief receiver will be trust worthy this year. Sell Bowe now if you can or wait until his next good outing and get value for him.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Manning had an off day is what you will hear, but it was more the result of a KC team that has a legitimate defense and some coaches that know what they're doing. Addai went down yet again with a shoulder injury and Mike Hart took over for him scoring the only TD of the day. Addai has only had one good game and should be on his way out next year. Both Donald Brown and Hart have more upside, but neither is a good fantasy candidate. Reggie Wayne will still get his solid and steady numbers every week regardless if Peyton is spreading the ball around. Which makes the question "Who is the WR outside of Wayne to have?" Garcon returned and had one more reception than Collie with nine more yards. While this was not Peyton's best day, it's going to be hard to know who he will look for in the red zone. Hopefully next week will answer questions, but the return of Garcon makes things murky. If you can still get some high value for Collie it may be time to sell him before it's too late. The team seems committed to Garcon despite Collie's season so far but we won't know how this plays out for another week or two. Better to sell than be stuck with a guy who is going to be a borderline number three WR.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: Maybe the Bucs are that good or maybe the Bengals are that bad. Regardless, we know for sure that 3-1 isn't all luck and that the defense in Tampa is back. They forced Carson into three turnovers in crucial moments, twice in the final minutes of the game that led to the Bucs winning on the road in Cinci. Mike Williams is this teams clear cut WR stud gaining 99 yds and a score. Aurelious Benn made an impact in this game as well, moving the chains and coming up with some key catches. As the season goes on, these two with Winslow could become a great trio. Morgan Spurlock keeps making key catches in crucial situations and Sammy Stroughter is dependable as they come. There is a young core here that is familiar of New Orleans three years ago. As long as Freeman is healthy, this team will be competitive in every game. The run game on the other hand has much to desire. Despite Raheem Morris' comments that Hugging and Blount would get more carries, he stayed committed to Cadillac whom again averaged only 3 ypr. At some point this team needs to realize that Huggins and Blount need to touch the ball more in order to beat opponents throughout the game and not just in the end. The defense is playing fast and opportunistic despite the lack of splash plays up front. They've had the pressure but are always a step short of a sack.
CINCINNATI BENGALS: While Palmer will get the flack for this game, it was his receivers that deserve a public beating. All the Bengals wide outs dropped key passes that either led to punts or turnovers. Palmer placed the ball in good spots where there was no excuse for the drops.While he did make two bad judgements on balls thrown, the Bengals had chances to score and move the ball but drops killed it. Cedric Benson pounded the Bucs for 144 yds but failed to score. The Bengals are playing nowhere to their potential and every week seems like some aspect of their team refuses to show up. Expected to compete for the division this year, the Bengals need some continuity and discipline. Everything we're seeing out of them points to Marvin Lewis. A change could be in store next year. The Bye week couldn't come at a better time for a team that needs to regroup.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: The offense is as potent as they come and the defense is strong yet this teams continues to beat themselves because of special teams play. Two blocked punts, one returned for a score the other a safety. The three fumbles hurt as well, but it was the special teams play early that set the tone for the Oakland defense and had them buzzing all game. Losing to Oakland has to hurt that much more since they not only lost to a divisional foe but lost the grip on the division on a day where Denver and KC lost. This is the second time special teams play have been a key factor in a loss. Malcom Floyd is the new Vincent Jackson...213 yards? Against the Oakland secondary? Floyd has Rivers trust and is by all means a weekly start who carries top tier value. Mike Tolbert scored the only rushing TD and looks to hold the role of red zone back with a healthy amount of carries as well. At this point, Tolbert carries more value than Mathews.
OAKLAND RAIDERS: Gradkowski left the game with an injury and Campbell seems to have won his starting job back regardless of how bad the injury is. He played a smart game and made precise passes in between the coverage where only his receivers could catch the ball. While Mike Bush didn't show McFadden speed, he did provide that hard nose running style expected and pounded his way to 104 yds. and a score. The Raiders have the talent defensively, but need consistency on offense if they're going to compete in the division. This could be the game they needed to build confidence, especially for the offensive line who actually looked a bit better this week. Zach Miller and Louis Murphy are still the only two ball catchers worth starting in fantasy, Miller being an every week play and Murphy nothing more than a flex depending on opponent.
CLEVELAND BROWNS: Seneca Wallace went down with an injury and Peyton Hillis had appeared on the injury report late last week which led to a 28 yard day for him. With Wallace expected to be out, Delhomme hurt as it is and Hillis nursing an injury that obviously affects his ability, the Browns are in shambles. Depending on how Hillis responds this week to treatment, no Browns players are starter worthy. Unless clear information comes out this week stating that Hillis is fully healthy, he may be a bench next week.
ATLANTA FALCONS: Atlanta continues to be the Turner White show and it continues to work. This is one of those teams who may only have limited resources but they know how to use them. Turner rushed for 140 yds. and White had 101 with a score. Matt Ryan continues to be a marginal fantasy QB and Gonzales has fallen off the map completely. Outside of the two mentioned, nobody can really be trusted. They are a team that can be tough when all aspects are firing but are very beatable when either Turner or White are kept in check.
DETROIT LIONS: All those close losses and bad beats led to frustration that was released on the Rams this week. Megatron and Burleson both caught TD passes, the defense was swarming and special teams special. While I expected a Lions win, nobody expected it to be so lopsided. The Lions continue to be one of the best losing teams and can put together a good run if the defense can come out like it did today. Best and Megatron continue to be the only two weekly starts in fantasy, but Burleson when healthy has proven he is a threat and should be considered a flex play every week depending on the match up.
ST. LOUIS RAMS: It was one of those games where everything went wrong. Especially losing Mike Clayton to a knee injury. Without Clayton, the Rams reverted to their old ways and it became the SJax show. If Clayton is out for any extended time it's going to spell bad news for the Rams. Amendola is a great second option, but he's not meant to be a primary WR. Especially not in fantasy unless it's a PPR league. Jackson continues to show he will get his regardless. Until we know on Clayton, Jackson is the only play here next week.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS: The Skins are quickly getting a reputation for being the most physical team in the NFL. Last week it was Vick and McCoy, this week its was Finley, Lee, and Rogers they banged up. Washington is by no means winning pretty and each game could have easily been a loss as it was a win. The leadership of Mcnabb seems to be paying off however as he continues to be this teams foundation and is showing poise under pressure. Though Santana Moss put up 118 yards, nobody on this team is lighting it up each week and fantasy plays should be made on a weekly match up only basis. The closest you have here to an every day guy is Cooley who will get his touches since Mcnabb loves to use the TE. Moss is a close second, but not a guarantee regardless of how he did this week.
GREEN BAY PACKERS: The loss of Finley made the passing game much more predictable but part of it was Washingtons pass defense. Brandon Jackson had his best game, posting 115yds. but is still far from dependable as a starting RB. The Packers keep coming up short the last few weeks and teams are sitting back on Rogers not allowing the big play. While Jackson did have a great game, the Packers need a dependable back who can carry more of a load so Rogers doesn't have to throw 50 times a game. Finley's injury did look serious so stay tuned on the MRI results. Get ready to pick up Lee if the news is as bad as I think it is.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: Victims of the biggest upset, the Saints have been a much lesser team than they were last year after five games. The receivers just seem to be playing a bit slower and and the plays that were there last year are missing. Meachem hasn't been a huge factor, Henderson has been hit or miss, and Colston has been far below expectations. Also, we're seeing how much of a factor Reggie Bush was in this offensive game plan. The fact that Brees was playing at less than 100% and no Pierre Thomas also has to be taken into account here. Right now Brees is the only solid, dependable fantasy play every week. Of course in this offense there will be value every week for the receivers, but none of them are as readable as last year.
ARIZONA CARDINALS: Max Hall is getting more credit that he deserves since it was the defense that won this game despite his mistakes. The running game continues to be below average and Fitzgerald continues to be dependable but far less than a fantasy stud. Jay Feely and Fitzgerald are the only two weekly starts and while this was a good win, it can't be expected to happen again. This team will fall back to earth quickly.
CAROLINA PANTHERS: No Steve Smith hurt them as bad as expected and both Williams and Stewart found a hard time getting anywhere against Chicago's defense. This team is bad but young. As long as Steve Smith is out, defenses will be able to stack the box without fear and will limit what the backs can do. Williams and Stewart are officially only starter worthy if you have a bye week or the run defense you are facing is that bad.
CHICAGO BEARS: No Jay Cutler, no problem. The Bears caught a break this week after losing Cutler to a concussion by facing a team that is rebuilding and nowhere close to the Bears talent level. Cutler should return next week and they will have two more good match ups coming at home in Seattle and Washington. Not much has changed here in terms of fantasy value.
NY GIANTS: Don't look now, but the Giants defense is playing up to their potential, feeding off of last week's performance against Chicago. The Giants held Arian Foster to 28 yds. rushing and caused headache for Matt Schaub. Hakeem Nicks has proved he will be a complete stud against lesser secondaries and is the clear cut number one receiver. Steve Smith finally woke up and looks to be a decent number three receiver from here on out. After last week, there seems to be a trend starting where Bradshaw gains the yardage and Bradshaw is called upon for the red zone duties. Jacobs got the only rushing score and this may be something to pay close attention to. Jacobs still isn't fantasy start worthy but what it does to Bradshaws value is more important. It may be time to unload Bradshaw while his value is at what I expect to be it's peak if Jacobs stays healthy.
HOUSTON TEXANS: The whole team struggled and this defense is starting to cause problems now that they are facing defenses that can keep Foster and Schaub in check. The good news here is that Andre Johnson got his and has proven once again what an amazing healer he is and his ability to play through injury. The fantasy plays are as normal here, but Foster owners should pick up Ward while they can as he is clearly showing he would be next in line.
DALLAS COWBOYS: I said early in the season that Phillips may be a candidate to lose his job by mid-season, and if things don't turn around next week vs. Minnesota I expect Jones to pull the trigger and hand the job open to Garrett who has been the favorite for a while now. Felix Jones backed me up and had his best game proving that the best fantasy analysis of this team is to listen to Jerry Jones. I was high on Roy Williams in the preseason only to fall off the wagon after the first two weeks but am officially back on. He has turned it around with Dez Bryant breathing down his neck. The Cowboys continue to not utilize Bryants potential though it's understandable considering the mouths Romo has to feed. Roy Williams has elevated to a legitimate start but be cautious against better secondaries.
TENNESSEE TITANS: Vince Young continues to baffle me on knowing how to read the guy. One week up the next bad. He needs to prove some type of consistency before he can be a trustworthy start every week. Until then he should stay as a back up on your team. Kenny Britt is showing consistency and could become quite a threat along with Nate Washington if Young can find a balance throwing the ball. Even if that does happen, the CJ2K will continue to be the center piece and limit their value since they will have to make the most of their touches every game.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Just when Alex Smith looked like the player he was expected to be as time was winding down, he comes out next series and promptly ruins it. Mike Singletary's job is in jeopardy but he has stated he will stick with Alex Smith despite the short comings. Why they don't give David Carr a shot is beyond me. Alex Smith has clearly proved he will never play past a certain level and the team is hurting for it. Crabtree broke out this week and you can expect more as the pass game focus' more around him and Vernon Davis. San Fran is realizing they are better when they both touch the ball, allowing Gore some rest. The next few weeks will be interesting as to if Singletary loses his job should they lose another two games. Expect to see Carr if Smith struggles against a hot Oakland team.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Kolb looked alot better after last weeks outing but did nothing to make a case for why he should keep the job once Vick returns. McCoy surprised by showing he could play through a fractured rib as if nothing was bothering him, rushing for 92 yards and a score. For as long as Vick is out you can bump up Celek to every week starter. Past that, Jackson, Maclin, and McCoy are the dependable starts regardless.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS: The Vikings came up short yet again, but there is much to be excited about even in the loss. Moss made an immediate impact catching a TD from Favre, and Harvin was able to excell back in his usual position, especially when lined up next to Moss. Peterson and Schiancoe did not have great nights although that was due to the Jets athletic Line Backers and stout run defense. The biggest concern here is why was Favre holding his throwing elbow on multiple occasions in the fourth quarter? At his age, an arm injury is the last thing you want to see. The Vikings have an interesting game next week against a team very much like them in the Cowboys. Given Dallas' weak pass defense, this could become a shoot out where it's fantasy heaven. Just stay on top of what Favre did to his elbow.
NY JETS: The Jets offense seemed to put it all together, having everyone contribute with all their play makers on the field at once. Shonn Greene rushed for a score behind LT who carried the load yet again. LT continues to defy, having a bounce in his step we haven't seen in two seasons. You have to wonder at this point if the AJ Smith battle wasn't wearing on him or if he just wanted out and figured it was best to not perform. Sanchez has evolved every week and is proving he can be trusted to throw the ball and not be babied. This only makes them that more potent now that Holmes is back. Keller had a quiet night, which is telling now that Holmes has returned and he goes back to number three option in the pass game. He will still get his red zone looks, but his numbers could take a slight hit moving forward though not enough of a hit to ever bench him.
BUFFALO BILLS: They are much better with Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Defense just can't stop anybody and will be this team's killer game after game. Fred Jackson is the back you want here although Spiller will have his games here and there. Lee Evans dropped 84 yds. with a TD and is this team's top threat at WR. Consistency will be the problem though as they play in one of the toughest divisions. The best way to make decisions on when to use Bills players is obvious...only against weak and middle of the road defenses.
DENVER BRONCOS: Brandon Lloyd is for real and found a system he actually excels in. He seems to have found a second life in pass happy Denver and is a dependable start every week. As for Gaffney and Royal, it is a roll of the dice week to week who will be the number two worthy of starting. Denver has no run game and it will lose them games....you have to be able to run the ball in the NFL and until Denver finds a way to do that, they will continue to fail against good secondaries. When your top rusher only gains 26 yds. you are not going to win. Kyle Orton is a top tier QB....zero run game means passing all day and Orton has done just that, but also looked very effective.
BALTIMORE RAVENS: They have too many ways to beat you....In a game where no receiver surpassed 58 yds, Ray Rice ran for 133 yds and two scores. With the talent they have at receiver, any one of them can explode on any play. When you need to stay vigilant against them and keep Ray Rice at bay it becomes an issue very few teams will be able to handle this year. Couple that with a top defense, the Offense can afford off days and still win the game. Baltimore will make the playoffs and win the division.
KC CHIEFS: They finally came back down to earth this week although they didn't make it easy for Manning. This team is for real and have the ability to make a run for the division this year. The defense played great, but if you give Peyton enough chances, he will eventually make you pay. Even if it's just putting together drives that result in crucial field goals. The Chiefs beat themselves in my eyes. Bowe and Moeaki both let scores get away from them and critical 3rd down passes were dropped. Cassel actually looked good and put the ball where it was on the receivers to do something with it. They just didn't. Jamaal Charles is the fantasy back you want here out of the two and deserves to get the 16-8 carry split he did in this game every week. While he wasn't able to break away for one this week, he is the more explosive and dynamic ball carrier here. Thomas Jones was running behind a great offensive line in NY and while KC has a good one they are not the Jets. Other than Moeaki at TE, no Chief receiver will be trust worthy this year. Sell Bowe now if you can or wait until his next good outing and get value for him.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Manning had an off day is what you will hear, but it was more the result of a KC team that has a legitimate defense and some coaches that know what they're doing. Addai went down yet again with a shoulder injury and Mike Hart took over for him scoring the only TD of the day. Addai has only had one good game and should be on his way out next year. Both Donald Brown and Hart have more upside, but neither is a good fantasy candidate. Reggie Wayne will still get his solid and steady numbers every week regardless if Peyton is spreading the ball around. Which makes the question "Who is the WR outside of Wayne to have?" Garcon returned and had one more reception than Collie with nine more yards. While this was not Peyton's best day, it's going to be hard to know who he will look for in the red zone. Hopefully next week will answer questions, but the return of Garcon makes things murky. If you can still get some high value for Collie it may be time to sell him before it's too late. The team seems committed to Garcon despite Collie's season so far but we won't know how this plays out for another week or two. Better to sell than be stuck with a guy who is going to be a borderline number three WR.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: Maybe the Bucs are that good or maybe the Bengals are that bad. Regardless, we know for sure that 3-1 isn't all luck and that the defense in Tampa is back. They forced Carson into three turnovers in crucial moments, twice in the final minutes of the game that led to the Bucs winning on the road in Cinci. Mike Williams is this teams clear cut WR stud gaining 99 yds and a score. Aurelious Benn made an impact in this game as well, moving the chains and coming up with some key catches. As the season goes on, these two with Winslow could become a great trio. Morgan Spurlock keeps making key catches in crucial situations and Sammy Stroughter is dependable as they come. There is a young core here that is familiar of New Orleans three years ago. As long as Freeman is healthy, this team will be competitive in every game. The run game on the other hand has much to desire. Despite Raheem Morris' comments that Hugging and Blount would get more carries, he stayed committed to Cadillac whom again averaged only 3 ypr. At some point this team needs to realize that Huggins and Blount need to touch the ball more in order to beat opponents throughout the game and not just in the end. The defense is playing fast and opportunistic despite the lack of splash plays up front. They've had the pressure but are always a step short of a sack.
CINCINNATI BENGALS: While Palmer will get the flack for this game, it was his receivers that deserve a public beating. All the Bengals wide outs dropped key passes that either led to punts or turnovers. Palmer placed the ball in good spots where there was no excuse for the drops.While he did make two bad judgements on balls thrown, the Bengals had chances to score and move the ball but drops killed it. Cedric Benson pounded the Bucs for 144 yds but failed to score. The Bengals are playing nowhere to their potential and every week seems like some aspect of their team refuses to show up. Expected to compete for the division this year, the Bengals need some continuity and discipline. Everything we're seeing out of them points to Marvin Lewis. A change could be in store next year. The Bye week couldn't come at a better time for a team that needs to regroup.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: The offense is as potent as they come and the defense is strong yet this teams continues to beat themselves because of special teams play. Two blocked punts, one returned for a score the other a safety. The three fumbles hurt as well, but it was the special teams play early that set the tone for the Oakland defense and had them buzzing all game. Losing to Oakland has to hurt that much more since they not only lost to a divisional foe but lost the grip on the division on a day where Denver and KC lost. This is the second time special teams play have been a key factor in a loss. Malcom Floyd is the new Vincent Jackson...213 yards? Against the Oakland secondary? Floyd has Rivers trust and is by all means a weekly start who carries top tier value. Mike Tolbert scored the only rushing TD and looks to hold the role of red zone back with a healthy amount of carries as well. At this point, Tolbert carries more value than Mathews.
OAKLAND RAIDERS: Gradkowski left the game with an injury and Campbell seems to have won his starting job back regardless of how bad the injury is. He played a smart game and made precise passes in between the coverage where only his receivers could catch the ball. While Mike Bush didn't show McFadden speed, he did provide that hard nose running style expected and pounded his way to 104 yds. and a score. The Raiders have the talent defensively, but need consistency on offense if they're going to compete in the division. This could be the game they needed to build confidence, especially for the offensive line who actually looked a bit better this week. Zach Miller and Louis Murphy are still the only two ball catchers worth starting in fantasy, Miller being an every week play and Murphy nothing more than a flex depending on opponent.
CLEVELAND BROWNS: Seneca Wallace went down with an injury and Peyton Hillis had appeared on the injury report late last week which led to a 28 yard day for him. With Wallace expected to be out, Delhomme hurt as it is and Hillis nursing an injury that obviously affects his ability, the Browns are in shambles. Depending on how Hillis responds this week to treatment, no Browns players are starter worthy. Unless clear information comes out this week stating that Hillis is fully healthy, he may be a bench next week.
ATLANTA FALCONS: Atlanta continues to be the Turner White show and it continues to work. This is one of those teams who may only have limited resources but they know how to use them. Turner rushed for 140 yds. and White had 101 with a score. Matt Ryan continues to be a marginal fantasy QB and Gonzales has fallen off the map completely. Outside of the two mentioned, nobody can really be trusted. They are a team that can be tough when all aspects are firing but are very beatable when either Turner or White are kept in check.
DETROIT LIONS: All those close losses and bad beats led to frustration that was released on the Rams this week. Megatron and Burleson both caught TD passes, the defense was swarming and special teams special. While I expected a Lions win, nobody expected it to be so lopsided. The Lions continue to be one of the best losing teams and can put together a good run if the defense can come out like it did today. Best and Megatron continue to be the only two weekly starts in fantasy, but Burleson when healthy has proven he is a threat and should be considered a flex play every week depending on the match up.
ST. LOUIS RAMS: It was one of those games where everything went wrong. Especially losing Mike Clayton to a knee injury. Without Clayton, the Rams reverted to their old ways and it became the SJax show. If Clayton is out for any extended time it's going to spell bad news for the Rams. Amendola is a great second option, but he's not meant to be a primary WR. Especially not in fantasy unless it's a PPR league. Jackson continues to show he will get his regardless. Until we know on Clayton, Jackson is the only play here next week.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS: The Skins are quickly getting a reputation for being the most physical team in the NFL. Last week it was Vick and McCoy, this week its was Finley, Lee, and Rogers they banged up. Washington is by no means winning pretty and each game could have easily been a loss as it was a win. The leadership of Mcnabb seems to be paying off however as he continues to be this teams foundation and is showing poise under pressure. Though Santana Moss put up 118 yards, nobody on this team is lighting it up each week and fantasy plays should be made on a weekly match up only basis. The closest you have here to an every day guy is Cooley who will get his touches since Mcnabb loves to use the TE. Moss is a close second, but not a guarantee regardless of how he did this week.
GREEN BAY PACKERS: The loss of Finley made the passing game much more predictable but part of it was Washingtons pass defense. Brandon Jackson had his best game, posting 115yds. but is still far from dependable as a starting RB. The Packers keep coming up short the last few weeks and teams are sitting back on Rogers not allowing the big play. While Jackson did have a great game, the Packers need a dependable back who can carry more of a load so Rogers doesn't have to throw 50 times a game. Finley's injury did look serious so stay tuned on the MRI results. Get ready to pick up Lee if the news is as bad as I think it is.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: Victims of the biggest upset, the Saints have been a much lesser team than they were last year after five games. The receivers just seem to be playing a bit slower and and the plays that were there last year are missing. Meachem hasn't been a huge factor, Henderson has been hit or miss, and Colston has been far below expectations. Also, we're seeing how much of a factor Reggie Bush was in this offensive game plan. The fact that Brees was playing at less than 100% and no Pierre Thomas also has to be taken into account here. Right now Brees is the only solid, dependable fantasy play every week. Of course in this offense there will be value every week for the receivers, but none of them are as readable as last year.
ARIZONA CARDINALS: Max Hall is getting more credit that he deserves since it was the defense that won this game despite his mistakes. The running game continues to be below average and Fitzgerald continues to be dependable but far less than a fantasy stud. Jay Feely and Fitzgerald are the only two weekly starts and while this was a good win, it can't be expected to happen again. This team will fall back to earth quickly.
CAROLINA PANTHERS: No Steve Smith hurt them as bad as expected and both Williams and Stewart found a hard time getting anywhere against Chicago's defense. This team is bad but young. As long as Steve Smith is out, defenses will be able to stack the box without fear and will limit what the backs can do. Williams and Stewart are officially only starter worthy if you have a bye week or the run defense you are facing is that bad.
CHICAGO BEARS: No Jay Cutler, no problem. The Bears caught a break this week after losing Cutler to a concussion by facing a team that is rebuilding and nowhere close to the Bears talent level. Cutler should return next week and they will have two more good match ups coming at home in Seattle and Washington. Not much has changed here in terms of fantasy value.
NY GIANTS: Don't look now, but the Giants defense is playing up to their potential, feeding off of last week's performance against Chicago. The Giants held Arian Foster to 28 yds. rushing and caused headache for Matt Schaub. Hakeem Nicks has proved he will be a complete stud against lesser secondaries and is the clear cut number one receiver. Steve Smith finally woke up and looks to be a decent number three receiver from here on out. After last week, there seems to be a trend starting where Bradshaw gains the yardage and Bradshaw is called upon for the red zone duties. Jacobs got the only rushing score and this may be something to pay close attention to. Jacobs still isn't fantasy start worthy but what it does to Bradshaws value is more important. It may be time to unload Bradshaw while his value is at what I expect to be it's peak if Jacobs stays healthy.
HOUSTON TEXANS: The whole team struggled and this defense is starting to cause problems now that they are facing defenses that can keep Foster and Schaub in check. The good news here is that Andre Johnson got his and has proven once again what an amazing healer he is and his ability to play through injury. The fantasy plays are as normal here, but Foster owners should pick up Ward while they can as he is clearly showing he would be next in line.
DALLAS COWBOYS: I said early in the season that Phillips may be a candidate to lose his job by mid-season, and if things don't turn around next week vs. Minnesota I expect Jones to pull the trigger and hand the job open to Garrett who has been the favorite for a while now. Felix Jones backed me up and had his best game proving that the best fantasy analysis of this team is to listen to Jerry Jones. I was high on Roy Williams in the preseason only to fall off the wagon after the first two weeks but am officially back on. He has turned it around with Dez Bryant breathing down his neck. The Cowboys continue to not utilize Bryants potential though it's understandable considering the mouths Romo has to feed. Roy Williams has elevated to a legitimate start but be cautious against better secondaries.
TENNESSEE TITANS: Vince Young continues to baffle me on knowing how to read the guy. One week up the next bad. He needs to prove some type of consistency before he can be a trustworthy start every week. Until then he should stay as a back up on your team. Kenny Britt is showing consistency and could become quite a threat along with Nate Washington if Young can find a balance throwing the ball. Even if that does happen, the CJ2K will continue to be the center piece and limit their value since they will have to make the most of their touches every game.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Just when Alex Smith looked like the player he was expected to be as time was winding down, he comes out next series and promptly ruins it. Mike Singletary's job is in jeopardy but he has stated he will stick with Alex Smith despite the short comings. Why they don't give David Carr a shot is beyond me. Alex Smith has clearly proved he will never play past a certain level and the team is hurting for it. Crabtree broke out this week and you can expect more as the pass game focus' more around him and Vernon Davis. San Fran is realizing they are better when they both touch the ball, allowing Gore some rest. The next few weeks will be interesting as to if Singletary loses his job should they lose another two games. Expect to see Carr if Smith struggles against a hot Oakland team.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Kolb looked alot better after last weeks outing but did nothing to make a case for why he should keep the job once Vick returns. McCoy surprised by showing he could play through a fractured rib as if nothing was bothering him, rushing for 92 yards and a score. For as long as Vick is out you can bump up Celek to every week starter. Past that, Jackson, Maclin, and McCoy are the dependable starts regardless.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS: The Vikings came up short yet again, but there is much to be excited about even in the loss. Moss made an immediate impact catching a TD from Favre, and Harvin was able to excell back in his usual position, especially when lined up next to Moss. Peterson and Schiancoe did not have great nights although that was due to the Jets athletic Line Backers and stout run defense. The biggest concern here is why was Favre holding his throwing elbow on multiple occasions in the fourth quarter? At his age, an arm injury is the last thing you want to see. The Vikings have an interesting game next week against a team very much like them in the Cowboys. Given Dallas' weak pass defense, this could become a shoot out where it's fantasy heaven. Just stay on top of what Favre did to his elbow.
NY JETS: The Jets offense seemed to put it all together, having everyone contribute with all their play makers on the field at once. Shonn Greene rushed for a score behind LT who carried the load yet again. LT continues to defy, having a bounce in his step we haven't seen in two seasons. You have to wonder at this point if the AJ Smith battle wasn't wearing on him or if he just wanted out and figured it was best to not perform. Sanchez has evolved every week and is proving he can be trusted to throw the ball and not be babied. This only makes them that more potent now that Holmes is back. Keller had a quiet night, which is telling now that Holmes has returned and he goes back to number three option in the pass game. He will still get his red zone looks, but his numbers could take a slight hit moving forward though not enough of a hit to ever bench him.
Sunday, October 10, 2010
MONDAY NIGHT PREVIEW
MINNESOTA VIKINGS at NY JETS:
VIKINGS: Brett Favre returns to New York a few days after Randy Moss returns to the Vikings. They are coming off a bye, so Favre and Moss will have had four days together getting in sync. It's Randy Moss, so all you need is a deep post, a hook, or a streak. It won't be hard for him to step right in and be effective. Other than what he will bring to this team, he also brings a knowledge of what the Jets will do on defense having played them once already with the Patriots. A game where he burned Revis and Revis came up lame. Moss instantly changes this team for the better. Peterson will get a bit more room to run up front since teams will need to respect the run, but the biggest benefactors are Percy Harvin and Schiancoe. Playing out of position and being the main receiving threat, Harvin has not been what everyone expected. The trade allows Harvin to see more slot time and some more single coverage. No doubt the Jets will put the focus on Moss, especially with Ryan already knowing what Moss will do to him, he will make sure it doesn't happen twice. Moss should get some decent yardage and a score, but look for Harvin and Schiancoe to do most the damage. Peterson should be kept in check relatively speaking as the Jets boast the 3rd ranked rush defense.
JETS: Not since week one against Baltimore have the Jets faced a team with this many play makers on the field. Revis looks to return and avenge himself in the rematch between he and Moss. The Vikings have been stingy on Defense against the run as well allowing about 87 RYPG (9th), so don't expect much out of Greene or Tomlinson. LT will be the better start because of his pass catching abilities, but the duo should be average at best. Minnesota is also good against the pass allowing just under 190 YPPG (8th). Santonio Holmes couldn't have been returning at a better time. His presence will stretch the defense, and like Harvin and Schiancoe, I think the biggest benefactor will be Dustin Keller. Holmes and Sanchez seemed to have great chemistry together during the pre-season and I wouldn't be surprised to see them hook up immediately in this game to get him going.
It's a home game for the Jets, but both teams are capable of looking stellar or under achieving against top opponents. The Jets get the edge for consistency as of late, but the Vikings have more to lose and need this game desperately. VIKINGS 24-JETS 20.
FANTASY STARTS: VIKINGS: Moss ( 4 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Harvin (6 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Peterson (15 for 55 yds./ 4 for 35 yds. 1 TD) Schiancoe ( 5 for 60 yds.)
JETS: Keller ( 5 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Holmes ( 6 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Bernard Berrian MIN....Berrian is not a number one threat as has been proved, but the guy has a knack for showing up when he is the forgotten man on the field. The Jets will be stretched thin as it is and Berrian's speed could end up torching them.
VIKINGS: Brett Favre returns to New York a few days after Randy Moss returns to the Vikings. They are coming off a bye, so Favre and Moss will have had four days together getting in sync. It's Randy Moss, so all you need is a deep post, a hook, or a streak. It won't be hard for him to step right in and be effective. Other than what he will bring to this team, he also brings a knowledge of what the Jets will do on defense having played them once already with the Patriots. A game where he burned Revis and Revis came up lame. Moss instantly changes this team for the better. Peterson will get a bit more room to run up front since teams will need to respect the run, but the biggest benefactors are Percy Harvin and Schiancoe. Playing out of position and being the main receiving threat, Harvin has not been what everyone expected. The trade allows Harvin to see more slot time and some more single coverage. No doubt the Jets will put the focus on Moss, especially with Ryan already knowing what Moss will do to him, he will make sure it doesn't happen twice. Moss should get some decent yardage and a score, but look for Harvin and Schiancoe to do most the damage. Peterson should be kept in check relatively speaking as the Jets boast the 3rd ranked rush defense.
JETS: Not since week one against Baltimore have the Jets faced a team with this many play makers on the field. Revis looks to return and avenge himself in the rematch between he and Moss. The Vikings have been stingy on Defense against the run as well allowing about 87 RYPG (9th), so don't expect much out of Greene or Tomlinson. LT will be the better start because of his pass catching abilities, but the duo should be average at best. Minnesota is also good against the pass allowing just under 190 YPPG (8th). Santonio Holmes couldn't have been returning at a better time. His presence will stretch the defense, and like Harvin and Schiancoe, I think the biggest benefactor will be Dustin Keller. Holmes and Sanchez seemed to have great chemistry together during the pre-season and I wouldn't be surprised to see them hook up immediately in this game to get him going.
It's a home game for the Jets, but both teams are capable of looking stellar or under achieving against top opponents. The Jets get the edge for consistency as of late, but the Vikings have more to lose and need this game desperately. VIKINGS 24-JETS 20.
FANTASY STARTS: VIKINGS: Moss ( 4 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Harvin (6 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Peterson (15 for 55 yds./ 4 for 35 yds. 1 TD) Schiancoe ( 5 for 60 yds.)
JETS: Keller ( 5 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Holmes ( 6 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Bernard Berrian MIN....Berrian is not a number one threat as has been proved, but the guy has a knack for showing up when he is the forgotten man on the field. The Jets will be stretched thin as it is and Berrian's speed could end up torching them.
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