Sunday, September 26, 2010

What We Learned Sunday

Okay, first off a little pat on the back for calling KC and ST. Louis games. I missed Denver although hey had numerous opportunities to score and win this game. All the other ones were either toss ups or heavily favored so read into it what you will. This week coming should be a bit easier after three weeks and seeing how teams respond against winners and losers.

VIKINGS: They are pretty much where everyone rates them. They are good enough to beat the bad teams but are lacking dimensions to beat the good teams. Peterson is the focus and only true offense here, running for 160 yds. on the Lions. Other than Harvin, as expected the Vikings have average options. Several players caught balls for 30 yds. and Harvin was the only true WR here and finally had a good game. While a good start, there is cause for concern until Rice returns. Fantasy wise, only Harvin and Peterson seem to be dependable options.

DETROIT: Shaun Hill has served as a decent replacement, lacking that little extra that wins games. It was no different in SF and is why he was let go. Until this team is healthy don't expect more than some well played, close scoring games from this team. They will compete week in and out regardless of QB but the Lions are better with Stafford.

PITTSBURGH: The expectation was that this would be a defensive game but it turned out anything but on one end. The Bucs defense took the day off and a 31st ranked pass game scored three touchdowns. Charlie Batch proved that he is able to waltz into any game and be an effective back-up. Mendenhall also rushed for a score, giving the Steelers a 3-0 record. If this is what they can do without Ben then imagine how good this team can be with him. This defense is tops in the league and has set up this team for a playoff run presuming Ben returns in top mental and physical shape.

BUCCANEERS: The Bucs came in with high expectations and were put in check. This was a game where the teacher showed the student he was not yet ready to fight him. Tomlin threw a curve ball on Morris, throwing more and effective than anyone, including Morris would have thought. They did pound the ball as well, but the fact Tomlin was committed to the pass was surely not what the Bucs schemed for. The Bucs did what they could offensively, but were no match for a top defense. The Bucs have two weeks to prep for the Bengals so let's see where this teams will lays.

NY GIANTS:  Eli Manning made some poor decisions, allowing C.J. and the Titans to capitalize. The Giants D took a step back, allowing CJ to run for 125 and 2 scores while VY was effective, tossing a score. The Giants seem to be a team lacking an identity. The run hasn't been overwhelming and the pass has been effective but average. The defense has been up and down thus far and looks to balance out. This team is showing all the signs of losing confidence in Tom Coughlin and the Bill Cowher bell has started ringing. Unless he can turn it around, his job is gone come end of the season. The Giants at this point look like an 8-8 team barring any changes.

TITANS: The Titans on the other hand have an identity, but the question is if it's enough. Vince Young went 10-16 for 118 and a TD,  and CJ ran for multiple TD's on 125 yds. As the Steelers showed last week, a good enough defense can shut down CJ and with the Offense in Young's hands, there can be questions on if he can pull it out. While he showed last year the ability to do so, the Titans are too one dimensional overall and the passing game needs to be a bit more of a focus as the season rolls on. The defense has performed above expectations and has the ability to hold teams when it matters.

BENGALS: This was one of those games you were unpleasantly surprised to get away with a win. The Bengals are showing multiple personalities, and Palmer has yet to really instill confidence that he is back to where he was three years ago. Two picks and one TD were enough to beat a rebuilding, young Carolina team but things will need to change until they can be considered for real. The loss of Adam Jones and Odom could have put extra stress on the offense, but overall the Bengals have work to do. They did commit to the run some more which was needed, so if they can get back to last year's roots there may be more confidence coming.

CAROLINA: Clausen was about what you expected in his first game, throwing for 188 and a pick. The problem for Carolina this year has been turnovers and the weak run game. The off-season surgeries have been a big cause of concern for me and so far have proven me correct. While I expected Stewart to have the bigger game here of the two, Williams was the benefactor, running for 64 yards. Not that it was a great performance, but it was the best yet by a Carolina rusher. This team has all but sealed it's fate in the basement of the NFC South, but as the Bucs have shown, one year can make a significant difference. Their youth is an advantage long term, but this year will be more about experience and growth.

NEW ENGLAND: Forget about figuring out this team past WR and QB. Ben Jarvis was the lead back when rational and common thought assumed it would be Taylor, and Hernandez led in yardage while Gronkowski got the TD. Brady tossed Moss 2 TD and you can expect more of those coming, but no other players other than Welker are a safe bet to contribute every game. Buffalo always seems to give the Pats a scare, but it ends there. New England is back, but the Defense needs to grow over the next few weeks if they hope to make a serious run in the playoffs.

BUFFALO: Much like the Pats, forget about figuring this team out, but you can't feel secure at any position. Each week it's a different statistical leader and the change to Fitzpatrick seems to have only muddled things further. The Bills will need to address offense this off-season as well as QB and a host of positions. They have heart and play hard for a city where they are the only show in town, so it is a matter of better management decisions and a commitment to winning by ownership.

BALTIMORE: Flacco set everyone at ease after two subpar performances, tossing three passes to Boldin in a route of the Browns. Ray Rice ran for 80 yds. and no scores, but this is what Baltimore needed. A game to get Flacco on track will help this team to become the balanced attack they are known for. Ray Rice may be a bit banged up so we will know more as the week goes on. Mason has definitely taken a back seat to Boldin and is nothing but a bye week fill in for now. Heap is one of those guys that will be feast or famine, so if you have a more productive option it may be worth using weekly. The Ravens will be a force this year and keep in mind that they have gotten off to a slow start and are still a competitive bunch.

CLEVELAND: The Browns put up a fight but the lack of talent at WR continues to be an issue. Wallace captained well at times but he or Delhomme need a pure WR threat before teams will stop focusing on their strength in the run game. Regardless, Peyton Hillis put up 141 with a score and has solidified himself as the lead back for the Browns and the one you want to own in fantasy. He's the only one you want to own on this team other than Harrison as the handcuff. I have no doubt Holmgren will get this team on track, but it will take time to see results.

CHIEFS: Cassel delivered on the key to this game, throwing TD passes to Bowe and Mclusteer which kept the 49ers on their heels and allowed both Charles and Thomas to post games above 90 yds. Thomas got the TD but Charles continues to outperform Thomas with fewer touches. Why they are not flipping the number of carries mystifies everyone except for Hailey but hey, if it ain't broke.....The Chiefs are the surprise team this year and it boils down to Defense. Romeo has transformed this team, focusing and exploiting each individuals talents within the scheme instead of forcing players to adapt to the scheme. If Cassel can continue days like this, the Chiefs will be a force within their division. San Diego has shown it is not as superior as last season and lack the defensive strength needed to shut down the Chiefs or Broncos. It will only be a matter of time before teams start getting better film on the Chiefs and then the real challenges will begin. For now they are showing they can adapt and attack a team's flaws.

49ers: Exactly what happened to the team penciled in to win their division? Outside of Frank Gore who is doing his damned best to do it all and carry them, teams are realizing all that is needed to beat San Fran is to take away Vernon Davis and focus on the run. Gore has become this team's number one receiver which is bad news. Crabtree has people printing the bust label and has little time before he is forced to prove he is otherwise. The presence of Vernon Davis and Gore should have this guy exploding for yardage, but he just doesn't seem to have the separation speed everyone expected and has been a fairly easy cover for teams. Singletary won't be afraid to make some big changes quickly and it just may be what this team needs. They are still somehow within striking distance for this division so don't count them out yet. But don't count on a huge turnaround either.

COWBOYS: Romo got what he wanted and was rewarded. Dallas finally commited to it's run game and while not stellar it was enough. The Defense woke up and held one of the best Offensive teams so far in check. Andre Johnson was held to 64 yds. although how much of that was D or his ankle is up for debate. Roy Williams saved himself from a benching I have to assume was spoken about to him during this past week. Yes, he has a big salary, but when you stink it up two games all bets are off. You know Jones was willing to do anything needed to spice things up in a year when they host the Super Bowl. The bad news is that Williams only seems to perform when he has to. Unless he can come out after the bye and light it up I will still believe he is the worst buy this team has made in the last two years. Regardless, Dallas can be a very emotional team, so look for this to maybe be the spark they needed if it can carry them through the bye week.

TEXANS: Offensively, Houston didn't really have a bad game. It's just their Defense continues to give up points, putting the burden of winning a game on Schaub and Johnson. Until this unit can stop a team and prove they are able to win games, Houston will be a one and done contender come playoff time. Management has tried to bring talent in yet it never seems to be enough. Fortunately for them, the Offense is capable of scoring every drive and will provide success. The scare here is what happens when one of the star playmakers goes down? Johnson's hurt ankle is most likely the cause of his low numbers and could be cause for concern going forward should he re-injure it.

ST.LOUIS: I may have been the only guy on the planet to call this one so let me ignore the ones I got wrong for a minute. St. Louis as I said is the most exciting and best losing team to watch this year. Bradford matched Mcnabb in the stats, but was more of an effective manager, spreading the ball out more. The Rams defense is what pulled this one out, keeping Washington to 91 yards of production from the RB squad with no scores. It forced Mcnabb to throw which seems to be what he will have to do if they want to win. Clayton had another solid game catching 5 for 85 although failing to score. Right now though, Rams fan are holding their breath after a Steven Jackson groin injury in which he will get an MRI on Monday. Jackson is nothing but injury prone because of his work load and this injury seems to have an ominous tone to it. Darby is not the answer, so no doubt the front office will be calling the Bills again in an effort to get one of their backs. If Bradford can stay healthy though, there is no ruling this team out of any game.

WASHINGTON: Mcnabb continues to be a one man show, the only source of consistency on this team. While Santana Moss has been a dependable receiver on the field and in fantasy, the lack of a ball control run game is exposing Mcnabb's ability to search for second and third option. Add to that the weak O line and this isn't a team ready for the long haul. Shanny is doing his best, but much as his last two years in Denver, he is forced to pass more often than he would like. The Skins could use a shot in the arm at RB and may look to make a trade for someone soon now that St. Louis will be in the market heavily.

PHILADELPHIA: Welcome back Michael Vick and welcome to your new contract. Vick silenced any doubters whom may still have had a soft spot for Kolb and threw for 291 3 TD and rushed for one more. Vick has never had the weapons he now has at his disposal and looks to have understood that the pass comes first, run second. While he is definitely far from clearing his name off the field, he is doing things right on it and has the Eagles looking like legit contenders who will cause headaches for opposing Defenses. Talk about a fantasy monster, Vick who was always a guy that could make or break you in fantasy has become a top five QB you want to own. His decisions have been on point for the most part and he has learned how to manage a game instead of looking for the home run every play. Jeremy Maclin continues to be a TD machine with Vick at the helm and could be in for a great statistical year both on the field and in fantasy. Celek continues to go unused and should be dropped to number two status as long as Vick is under center. McCoy is still not quite where everyone expected and seems to at this point be no more than a number two/flex option for now.

JAGUARS: Jones-Drew continues to raise questions on how healthy he really is, averaging only 4 yds. per carry this game. The real problem lies in David Gerrard who continues to underperform and seems unable to stop staring down his receivers. Gerrard will be what wins or costs the Jags every game and with no option behind him this could be his last year if he fails to produce. The Jags need MJD to return to form but I believe he is not at 100 percent health which is why he is having a down year so far. They have the talent but always seem to be a crapshoot if they're going to use it or not.

BRONCOS: One of my two big upset picks, the Broncos stalled on five occasions in the Colts redzone that would have won them the game easily. Orton threw for a crazy 476 yards and over 100 yds to two different receivers in a game where Denver beat the Colts everywhere but the scoreboard. It was a great effort given what they've been through this week and probably stings more than normal at their lack of red zone efficiency. Regardless, nobody can or should criticize too much a team that gave an amazing effort given the circumstances. Denver will bounce back and if teams haven't already noticed, they are a pass first team who are good at it.

COLTS: A week after coming to life, the run game died again forcing Manning to throw for the win. He proved all he needs are warm bodies who can catch at WR to win a game, tossing a TD to Blair White whom was on the practice squad two days ago. Still, this was more a game won by the Broncos lack of efficiency in the red zone than a rally the Colts could feel great about. A win is a win, but the run game needs major work or the Colts will collapse when playoff time comes. Austin Collie is the second WR you want in Indianapolis and Garcon is now officially droppable. Time to look for other options if you own him or at least leave him on the bench in case the injury bug bites Collie or Wayne. Otherwise you can't trust him going forward, not can you trust either Brown or Addai until they show consistency.

RAIDERS: Gradkowski should have cemented his spot as starter at least for one more week after putting the Raiders in position to win twice, only to have Janikowski go wide left on what would have been the game winner. Gradkowski continues his Jeff Garcia impression, putting Bey, Murphy, and Miller in opportunities to succeed. McFadden had another solid game and will be the lead back going ahead no matter what. The Defense simply allowed Arizona to respond when they needed to and couldn't make a stand to seal the game. The loss will fall on Janikowski's shoulders however and was one of those games every kicker is prone to having once a year. He is normally more consistent than that and should not be in any jeapordy of losing his starting gig. The Raiders do seem to be making progress with Gradkowski and are a team that is slowly getting better on the Offensive side of the ball.

CARDINALS: It sucks if you own Fitzgerald! Derek Anderson continues to kill all Arizona WR value and Fitz should be sliding down to a low end number one play after this week. Yes he got a catch for a TD but 26 yards? Yes it was Asomugh, but what about week one? This looks to be close to where Fitz will wind up against decent corners, but as long as he catches a TD every game who cares? That was no surprise, but the return of Wells running for 75 yards and getting more touches than Hightower was. Hightower seems to have lost all the mojo he built the last two weeks in a flash and was put back in his place immediately as the number two back. While Wells was effective, lets give it some time before we can figure out if it was a pretty good performance because of opponent or his talent.

SAN DIEGO: Two fumbles killed drives early on for the Chargers and wound up making the difference as the Charges gave one to Seattle. What killed them even more was their horrible special teams play. Phillip Rivers threw for 455yds but still was unable to pull it out despite having a chance at the end. Naanee and Floyd along with Gates are resembling the Packers trio of pass catching studs as the Chargers seem to mirroring the Green Bay strategy. Mike Tolbert started out slow but got stronger as the game went on and will be the handcuff to Mathews who could miss some more time. The Chargers need help on Defense, losing Merriman to a calf injury and the Offensive line has had trouble allowing the run game to find holes. The Chargers will rely on outscoring opponents this year, which is a reoccuring theme around the league. Problem is if you turn the ball over and can't cover kick returns then no amount of scoring will help. Both games the Chargers have lost by close margins so don't expect them to be too discouraged as of yet.

SEATTLE: Take away Leon Washington's two TD returns and his run to mid field and Seattle loses this game with only one offensive TD. A win is a win but the only somewhat bright spot other than Washington was Justin Forcett who ran for 63 yards. The Defense is the Seattle strength, clamping down again when they needed to. When it boils down to it nobody cares how you win so that's what counts for now. To expect more showings like this may be asking too much, but the Seahawks seem to be adaptable to the flow of a game and are showing they are the surprise bet to win this division if San Fran doesn't get it's act together.

JETS: Braylon Edwards earned some respect back from his team after catching another TD pass on 87 yards. Dustin Keller scored twice with 98 yards. The Jets have taken the training wheels off Sanchez and it seems to be paying off. The Baltimore game must feel like ages ago to Jets fans and their play warrants that game to be more opening day rust as each game goes on and the Jets win. LT continues to look like he has returned to his old self, showing explosiveness and agililty we remember him for. Shonn Greene on the other hand has left fantasy owners scratching their heads. He will no doubt have value as the season goes on, but at this point he is a flex play, low end number two depending on the match up. The Jets seem to be hitting their stride now and with Sanchez throwing the ball confidently, the return of Santonio Holmes should pay huge dividends. New York seems to have their swagger back so look for the smack talk to start back up this week.

MIAMI: The Dolphins looked better than expected and Henne shut me up for at least one week. He threw for 363 yards, 166 of it going to Brandon Marshall. He spread the ball out well, connecting with my sleeper pick Hartline for 86 yards and almost a score. Bess also put up 86 yards on 6 catches. Is this a sign of things to come for the Dolphins pass game? I doubt it, no Revis and a young secondary outside of Cromartie can account for much of the damage, but the more telling thing is how the Dolphins still lost the game with Henne's performance. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams combined for 82 yards and no scores against a tough front. The Dolphins are still a team hard to put a finger on. They are not a run first wildcat gimmick anymore and even with the addition of Marshall they aren't a pass attack team either. Though they showed they can be last night, the Dolphins are a balanced team who still are in search of their new identity. They should develop into a serious contender but it's all based on Henne and his play.

1 comment:

  1. We learned Brett Favre still has a powerful arm! If he and Percy can get it together they will be unstoppable!

    ReplyDelete