Sunday, October 31, 2010

SUNDAY IN REVIEW

BRONCOS: Denver tried to feature it's run game and get the defense to respect the run. Too bad it didn't work. Statistically, Moreno put up 40 on 11 carries, far from menacing and enough to get a defense on their heels. Orton focused in on Lloyd passing to him for 169 yards and a score. The Tebow chatter will only grow louder after losing to the 49ers under a QB making his first start. The criticism is misplaced however, since it is the banged up defense making Orton's job that much harder. Aside from that, no QB is going to be effective when defenses are able to sit back and not worry about the run. At this point, the Broncos might want to think about giving Tebow some carries out of the back field. If the Broncos are serious about putting the future in Tebow's hands, now would be the time to let him have a shot. Though they are not out of the divisional race, it will be a big uphill climb.

49ers: Who called a 49er win??? This guy did! I was probably the only one too. I watched Troy Smith in college and liked what I saw. His brief stint in Baltimore was also a good indication of what he could do. He was plagued by injury there, but the little we did see from him seemed hopeful. He can manage a game and his feet are a great secondary weapon. Say hello to SF new QB. I believe he is more a long term option than Smith ever could be. Expect more wins from this squad going ahead. SF simplified the offense and proves that sometimes in the NFL, coaches out think themselves when all you really need is execution on the basics. Troy Smith warrants a pick up if he isn't already taken.

JAGUARS: Gerrard continued his Jeykl and Hyde act this week throwing four TD passes after missing a week injured. This guy is a wild card every week and can't be depended on. If he can one day show some consistency then maybe we can consider him a starting option, but not until then. However, it was nice to see Mike Simms-Walker return to last years type game and hopefully this performance will force Gerrard to look at him more instead of checking down. Mercedes Lewis put up another great game and I said weeks ago to pick him up. This is a guy I drafted after hearing him say he spent the whole off season in Jacksonville just to work out with Gerrard. This is not a fluke! Pick him up and start him every game! MJD had his 3rd solid start in a row rushing for 135 and looks like he may be over his early season injury. Buy low on him if you still can.

COWBOYS: Bye Bye Wade Phillips...I've been saying that despite Jerry Jones' talk that Wade's job is safe, Jerry has to be ready to pull the trigger. The season is lost, your team has obviously stopped playing defense and nobody respects the head coach. They are jumping ship! Bring in Gruden or Cowher and let them start putting the pieces in place and developing this team. Think of it as an early training camp. When the real camp rolls around, these guys will know what the system is and be comfortable. Waiting for the inevitable will only make things harder. Make the change now. While Roy Williams had a down day, I still think he has the relationship with Kitna to have value. As does Austin whom I though would take a small hit because of Kitna's throw power. If you can, I would play it safe and get rid of your Cowboys while they still carry value. The writing is on the wall so don't wait until it hits you on the head. Trade em all.

DOLPHINS: I had both Williams and Brown as sleepers for this game so if you started them you should be happy as Brown gave you 6 points and Williams gave you 10. Not great, but sleeper value. The Dolphins continued to win ugly, not dazzling in any way but letting Carpenter kick five field goals. The defense is this teams savior and is what continues to keep them in games. Marshall is still fantasy start worthy, but after this game I would sell both Brown and Williams as high as you can. Let's face it, you will not feel comfortable starting them all year and you can get something decent for them this week.

BENGALS: Carson Palmer's days are officially numbered. He tried to force to many throws and again was dealing with accuracy issues. One of the passes to Owens should have been a pick but turned into a TD off deflection. After coming out strong to start the game, the Bengals crumbled and could not muster a come back. The defense is especially a problem since they are becoming proficient at letting teams get back into games. Benson racked up only 69 yards on 2o carries which doesn't really give me confidence in him at all. Benson is trade worthy as is Palmer. Palmer is still having value since he will be throwing often, but he can just as easily give you single digits as he can a 15-20 point day. Ocho and TO will be unreliable but when they have big days, like TO did today, expect them to be all or nothing. This will put fantasy owners in a bind, but unless you have a better option, they are worth a roll of the dice.

BILLS: Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson, and Johnson are the only three names you need to know. They are the only three consistent producers both on the field and for your fantasy team. The Bills couldn't get anything going this week yet were still in the game. This is a team that is just coming up short every week but has potential down the line. It's always just a few plays that make the difference for the Bills, and expect them to improve every week. Ironically, I think their struggles bode well for the three guys mentioned as they are what the offense is built around. If you play in a keeper league, these guys are of particular value since you probably got them for a steal and they will have value next year. Be patient, and the above three all are good plays depending on the match up.

CHIEFS: Hailey finally figured out that Jamaal Charles needs more carries and is giving it to them. He has also won both games since giving Charles lead back duties. Charles racked up 177 on the ground and 61 through the air. As I have said before, out of the two he is the one you want. Though Jones is no slouch and a solid #2 starter if you have them. Bowe caught another TD pass and his value is rising. Trade for him now while he will carry mid range value still. This should become a regular type of game for him and while he could have worse games happen, 10 points seems like what you can expect a game out of him.

REDSKINS: First off, I have been singing the praise for Anthony Armstrong who had another solid day and is Washington's main deep threat. He posted 92 yards on only 3 catches. Mcnabb spread the ball around to 7 different receivers since the run game could get nothing going. Moss and Cooley had mediocre days and as stated, Torain found nothing. Keiland Williams did put up better yardage on the ground though and may be an interesting situation moving ahead. The big news out of this game will be the benching of Mcnabb with 2 minutes left because Shanny believed Grossman had a better chance at scoring. Huh? You bring a guy in to bench him when you need him most? The Skins have a bye coming up and they seriously need to settle the coach vs. players issues.

LIONS: Another upset I picked, Stafford proved to be just what the Lions needed. Stafford threw for 4 TD's, and Megatron posted the big day I was expecting. Stafford has the arm and accuracy to take advantage of the weapons around him. The Lions win a few of those close loses in recent weeks if he were at QB. Moving ahead, Stafford has starting QB value and could quietly finish the second half as a top 12 QB in my opinion. CJ's value, Pettigrew, and Best all get a bump while he is in. The curious situation to watch here is that Kevin Smith received the same number of carries as Best. This could become a time share situation, but one offset by Best's pass catching numbers. Best is the one you want but if Smith continues to get equal carries, he could become fantasy relevant while eating into Best's value just a bit.

PANTHERS: This is a team I expected to win in St. Louis and instead they laid an egg behind 3 Matt Moore interceptions. Steve Smith's value obviously is back up after returning from injury last week, but like Fitzgerald in Arizona, his value has been hindered big time due to QB play. Smith is more a solid WR #2 play than the top ten guy we expect. Jonathan Stewart did little to take advantage of his opportunity and will most likely return to his back up role once Williams is healthy. At this point, all Panthers are trade bait. Use Smith's name value and decent game to upgrade weaker positions if you can.

RAMS: They continue to do it by chipping away at you moving the chains. They are doing it by playing defense fast and executing. I will pat myself on the back for calling out B. Gibson as a sleeper for the game, but other than his 67 yards, no Ram went over 60. These guys play well as a group, each man being efficient at his role on the field. The Rams continue to be one of the most exciting teams to watch and are on the right path to becoming serious contenders. Gibson warrants a pick up and should be a solid WR #3 if he can produce again next game. Otherwise, Jackson and Bradford should be guys you sit on and use.

PACKERS: Really not much to take from this game since it was one of those where they faced a great defense who were a perfect fit for the Packers strengths. Three field goals was all the scoring this game had. Keep an eye on Donald Driver's situation since this looks to be a bigger injury than what is being portrayed. No receiver other than Jennings is a safe play. Rogers likes to spread the ball around and so far nobody has cemented the #2 spot. Quarless still has the most upside if you are choosing between him or Lee.

JETS: People are quickly back on the Sanchez hate wagon, but as I said it was just one of those games. Don't jump ship yet as they were facing a defense every bit as good as theirs. Expect the Jets to come back strong next game. Shonn Greene continues to see minimal use and since like me he was probably taken as 2nd RB value it is time to look for options until LT goes down with an injury if that even happens. Hold him, but use any WR or QB depth you have to upgrade the position if you had him as your RB 2.

TITANS: Kenny Britt pulled up lame here and it looks to be a serious hammy pull which can take a speed guy like Britt a few weeks to heal up from. Since in all likely hood he was a waiver pick or low round pick, it shouldn't affect your team. Vince Young also went down with what appears to be an ankle issue but it seems like a sprain and nothing too serious. It will be another week of unknowns for Young owners so hopefully you have another QB not on a bye. Nate Washington stepped up for Britt and looked every bit as good. He will be the one you want moving ahead.

CHARGERS: Using a patch work of receivers, Rivers took advantage of his running backs, throwing to all three. As expected Gates was his main target and will continue to be until one of the starting WR core returns. Tolbert again out performed Mathews with fewer touches though both did get scores. This looks to be what to expect from here on out. Mathews will get the carries but Tolbert will get a good amount and make the best of them. Sproles has emerged as a threat again, though a minimal one. If you own Mathews or Tolbert he may be worth a pick up if you have room in case either of the two go down. Rivers continues to be a stud for fantasy regardless who he throws to and is having a top 3 year.

VIKINGS: Moss is starting to get unhappy and looked like he was ready to make out with Brady after the game. He has good reason since the Vikes are limiting his shots down field, but a big part of that is that teams are double teaming him. Harvin continues to be the beneficiary of this since he is finding more room under the secondary. Peterson has also benefited and continues to be AP game in and out. Favre went down with a chin laceration that took 10 stitches but don't dare start wondering anything about his availability. The Vikings needed this game but are somehow still in the hunt with the loss.

PATRIOTS: I expected Tate and Woodhead to deliver here but it was Tate that surpassed expectations and Woodhead who came under them. Woodhead did score and looks to have taken over what we expected from Welker this year. Maybe Welker is slowed by the knee or maybe Woodhead's versatility is the factor, but Welker should be replaced by Woodhead in your line up. The law firm has planted himself as the undoubted number 1 in New England as we are seeing the Patriots actually look readable for once as far as what guys you can depend on week to week. This could be the game Tate needed to get the confidence a rookie needs at the position and he can be depended on as a WR 3/ borderline 2.

BUCCANEERS: Blount, Blount, Blount. Tampa Bay has found a run game and it is paying off for Freeman, taking the load off of him and allowing the big down field plays. The Bucs have also found a good rotation of Spurlock and Benn at the X spot. The bigger news is how this defense is playing fast and attacking the ball. While there still are miscues in the secondary at times because of the lack of Safety experience, the Bucs are very opportunistic, forcing turnovers. They had 4 picks in this game, two returned for touchdowns. This is obviously a team I watched closely in preseason and could see the potential. I drafted them in fantasy, but they are surpassing even my expectations. Mike Williams continues his bid for ROY catching a TD on 105 yards. Blount ran for 120 yards for 2 scores and is the obvious choice at RB. Winslow on the other hand isn't close to last years numbers and should be a secondary option at best.

CARDINALS: The Cards broke down and continued the QB shuffle, benching Hall and giving Anderson another shot. Though Anderson did force two picks of his own, he looked much more efficient than Hall and led the Cards on solid drives. He should have earned himself at least a shot at being a starter next week but will most likely be back to his #2 role because of the faith the team has in Hall. Fitzgerald did get his as expected, and Beanie Wells did me good on picking him as a sleeper this week. Sell high on him if you can as he will be facing the Vikings, Seattle, and KC whom all pose solid run defenses. However, if you can afford to stash him on the bench and are in contention for the playoff's, he has a great three games then facing Denver, Carolina, and Dallas. Steve Breaston is also back and merits a look as a possible #3 guy depending on your starters opponents.

SEAHAWKS: Seattle could get nothing going against the Oakland defense and were blown off the ball play after play. Much like the Jets, it wasn't necessarily an indication of anything other than a bad day all teams can expect. Lynch did get the bigger number of carries but the run game was abandoned early due to the situation they were in. Once they were down it became awfully hard to pass against a solid Raider secondary. John Carlson didn't quite live up to the sleeper status I billed him for but was the leading receiver with 47 yards. I believe Carlson will be used more in the future so get him at a very low price if able. The back you want here is still Lynch, and his remaining schedule is a mixed bag that should provide good numbers moving ahead though not stellar numbers. He is trust worthy as a flex guy but if he is your #2 it may not be the best situation.

RAIDERS: This defense has found it's groove and are playing as aggressive as any unit in the NFL. Mcfadden continued to shine, posting 111 yards, and has elevated to #1 back status. Since he was taken at #3 back value in your draft, you should be sitting pretty with depth. Heyward Bey also finally broke out passing 100 yds. and a score but should not be counted on. Do not count on Campbell to be a trust worthy start weekly either. Past Mcfadden and Miller your Raiders should be used as bench and bye week fodder. The Oakland schedule gets a bit harder coming up as they will face KC, MIA, and PIT.

STEELERS: Another game I called, my thoughts on why they would lose proved right on as Ben did struggle facing a tough, fast, defense on the road for a second week. It's a loss caused more by his rust than anything else. Not much to be read into here. The Steeler offense will return to itself but a game like this was needed to get Ben sharp again and seeing different looks from a good defense. It's a growing type game both he and the team should grow from. Mendenhall had the best game rushing for 71 yards and a score so no news as to his value. Keep your Steelers and chalk it up to a game that was bound to happen.

SAINTS: The Saints pass game finally looked like the team we saw last year as Brees spread the ball to Meachem, Colston, and Moore effectively. The cause for concern comes in the back field where it was a committee approach. Ivory was not the lead back as expected, though no back really produced against the Steelers front seven. With Bush looking to return this week, expect Ivory's numbers to drop along with your expectations. If you can get something for him now is the time to do it. Wait on proclaiming Meachem back, but it was a great sign and could be a game that puts faith in Brees in looking for him more.

Saturday, October 30, 2010

SATURDAY ODDS and ENDS

Vernon Davis has a TD in 4 straight games. Denver and a new QB seem like a good combination to make it 5.

The Carolina Panthers haven't scored a defensive TD in 15 games.

The Bengals have not scored yet on an opening drive.

Buffalo defense is on pace to allow 500 pts. this season.

Ahmad Bradshaw is on pace for a 1,500 yard season.

Josh Freeman has a 91.3 passer rating in the 4th quarter. CB Ronde Barber plays his 200th game on Sunday.

The Texans are #1 in Red Zone offense.

The Dolphins are 3-0 on the road.

Brett Favre has a 93.3 passer rating against the Pats in 7 games.

Players who look to be out this week: Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Joseph Addai, Austin Collie, Louis Murphy, Denario Alexander, Malcom Floyd, Legadu Naanee,

Friday, October 29, 2010

FRIDAY GUT CHECK

A list of players whom have tough match ups, or maybe are not producing but feel are good starts despite their projections or status. It's that feeling in your gut that tells you it's their time.

1. RONNIE BROWN & RICKY WILLIAMS MIA.......Neither one has had a good season so far and neither one has been start worthy. This week they face the Bengals 15th ranked run defense on the road. Not much to feel good about, but Williams had a pretty good game last week against the top run defense. Both guys seem to slowly be getting things going, and with the loss of Adam Jones this week I can see Henne and the pass game opening things up for the back field. Brown has had some amazing games on the road in his past and both guys are over due.

2. CADILLAC WILLIAMS TB.....Legarette Blount for all intensive purposes has become the clear cut best running back in Tampa, yet Morris refuses to name a lead guy. Part of it is that Williams is the better 3rd down/blitz pick up guy. The emergence of Blount I think actually helps Williams value. Especially against the Arizona 26th ranked rush defense. Blount will open up lanes for Williams and since Williams will be considered just a pass threat, he could surprise with a few big runs. As he showed last week, Williams has value even if he is averaging only 3 YPC. I think he scores again this week but on the ground.

3. BEANIE WELLS ARZ......Another guy who has struggled with injury and has been slow to produce. Beanie has however received a huge majority of the carries over Hightower since he has come back and has been getting a bit better every week. He hasn't been start worthy all year, but the Bucs are a bad rush defense team and the Cards will need to run the ball since the Bucs are 2nd in pass defense. I expect to see Wells post over 60 yards and a score despite his poor start.

4. JHAVID BEST DET......He has been hurt and very ineffective since his huge two weeks to open the season. Best this week faces the 23rd ranked rush defense, and will have Stafford back whom will have the Redskins respecting the pass. Best had a bye week to help rest his ailing toe and will no doubt be in the best health he has been in since the toe injury. I don't expect him to be 100% but I do expect a big involvement from him Sunday.

5. TROY SMITH SF......This is the riskiest of the list since nobody knows where he stands after not seeing much action since the Baltimore release. However, we do know he has the tools and can manage a game. The guy is a former Heisman trophy winner and while that doesn't mean anything in the NFL, it does say the guy has a certain skill set. He can't be worse than Alex Smith, and he adds the threat of running with the ball which helps catch defenses off guard and move the chains. This week he faces Denver's banged up defense which ranks 16th against the pass and just got torched by Jason Campbell and the run game. SF has Gore, as well as more receiving weapons than the Raiders. Do not be surprised if he leads them to a win in London.

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

WEEK 8 PREVIEW

WASHINGTON REDSKINS@DETROIT LIONS: The Redkins continued their combination of luck and skill in Chicago, forcing Cutler into 4 picks by Deangelo Hall. The performance was outstanding, but it's not a statement game for this secondary which still ranks at the bottom of the league. That belongs to the Washington front seven whom continue to be impressive and are pressuring QB's into mistakes. Mcnabb now travels to Detroit where he faces the 12th ranked pass defense. Granted that number is skewed due to the bye, but Detroit is a more balanced team at home. Where the Lions do struggle is against the run. They rank 25th and will have problems trying to stop Ryan Torain. Expect the Redskins to have success on both fronts and for Anthony Armstrong to post solid numbers as the attention focuses on Moss and Cooley along with the run game. This could turn into a high scoring affair where whomever has the ball last wins. The Skins have proven if they do then they will come away with the win.
LIONS: The Lions come off a weeks worth of rest and look to have Stafford back in the fold. This team has been competitive throughout injuries and should have everyone healthy for the first time since opening day. Washington is at the bottom when it comes to pass defense so Stafford should have no problem readjusting. Washington also ranks 23rd against the run which is bad news considering the lightning fast Best. Expect the Lions to try and get Best involved early to allow Stafford to settle in as well as control the ball.

Though all signs point to another Washington win, I am a big believer in the bye week giving teams an extra advantage and see Detroit being amped up and ready. This team has lost marginally in all but one game against some solid opponents whom have more fire power than the Skins.....DET 31-WASH 21.

FANTASY STARTS: WASH: Mcnabb (250yds. 2 TD) Torain ( 14 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Armstrong (4 for 75 yds. 1 TD) Cooley ( 5 for 60 yds. 1 TD). DET: Best (13 for 70 yds. 1 TD/ 5 for 40 yds) C. Johnson (6 for 110 yds. 2 TD) Burleson (3 for 50 yds. 1 TD) Stafford (300 yds. 3 TD)
SLEEPER: Pettigrew DET...while I am all in on Megatron this week, Stafford may have a little rust to bang off in the first half and expect some safe underneath throws to Pettigrew. He could easily steal one of the scores I have slated for CJ.

JACKSONVILLE JAGS@DALLAS COWBOYS: JAGS: Gerrard has been cleared to play and should get the start despite Bouman's performance last week. I liked what I saw from a guy who looked every bit as Gerrard despite not throwing an NFL pass for five years. Regardless, nobody knows how Dallas will react on a short week with a new QB. Kitna will no doubt make his mistakes and this secondary proved it can be torched. After the 200yd day by the Giants run game, MJD has to be salivating after a good last few weeks. He seems to be hitting his stride just in time to face a Cowboys rush defense that is 14th. Gerrard is an enigma when it comes to his play and nobody can be sure how he comes out looking. Simms-Walker has seen an increase in targets the last two weeks and will need to be a factor if the Jags have a shot here. Look for a ton of MJD and Mercedes Lewis first half, with some Simms-Walker after Gerrard gets his feet wet.
COWBOYS: Kitna is no spring chicken, but that also means he is a savvy veteran who can manage a game. He is facing the 29th ranked pass defense which has been especially bad the last two weeks. Miles Austin's deep ball value is the only thing I see taking a hit here and for the duration of Romo's absence. A guy like Dez Bryant will be a target often looked to. Don't forget Roy and Kitna were team mates back in Detroit and had a good relationship. Felix Jones should see a big increase in production as they won't want to put it all on Kitna's shoulders.

Expect Dallas to rally around Kitna this week. Jones has probably given this team a motivated tongue lashing after being embarrassed nationally. Wade Phillips knows he is a goner at end of the year and needs to prove he is worthy of another job. DAL 27-JAGS 17.

FANTASY STARTS: JAGS: MJD (16 for 100yds 1 TD/ 5 for 40 yds). M. Lewis (4 for 50 yds. 1 TD) Simms-Walker (80 yds.)
COWBOYS: F. Jones (14 for 80 yds. 1 TD/ 4 for 40 yds) Williams ( 6 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Bryant (5 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Austin (8 for 90 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Marion Barber DAL...even with Felix Jones emergence as the lead back, games like this offer great value for strong secondary backs. Expect a score.

MIAMI DOLPHINS@CINCINNATI BENGALS: MIA: The Dolphins are coming off a heart breaking loss to the Steelers and have a chip on their shoulder coming in. They face a Bengals team that is one dimensional ranking 11th in passing but 24th rushing. This fits well for Miami's solid pass defense ranked 10th and even better for their 9th ranked run defense. Offensively, Miami has been plagued by their 22nd rush attack, a far cry from what expectations were. They have been forced into throwing more, but they are doing it effectively. They face a Bengals team down Adam Jones so look for them to attack through the air here.
BENGALS: The Bengals have been one of the bigger disappointments this year. The bulk of the blame needs to sit on Cedric Benson and Palmer's shoulders. Palmer has no excuse given his weapons yet he continues to struggle with accuracy. He is very fantasy relevant because of his work load, but needs to find a rhythm. While he did have success last week, he will continue to be vulnerable with the lack of a run game. I have always been low on Cedric Benson because of his consistency issues year to year. While he is by no means having a bad year, he is not the explosive guy we saw last season. Cinci is currently 24th rushing and faces a Miami rush D ranked 9th whom held Mendenhall in check last week. Don't expect much from Benson this week. Do expect TO and Ocho to have decent days as Carson will be forced to throw 40 plus times again.

Miami proved they can handle road trips when they beat Green Bay, but the Bengals season is on the line if they lose this one. Given the Miami rush issues, I don't see Henne being able to match Palmer's pass game.
CINCI 28- MIA 24.

FANTASY STARTS: MIA: Marshall (7 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Bess (5 for 60yds.) Fasano (3 for 40 yds. 1 TD) Brown (13 for 60 yds. 1 TD). BENGALS: Palmer (280 yds. 2 TD) Ochocinco (8 for 85 yds. 1 TD) TO (6 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Benson (13 for 60 yds) Greisham (5 for 45 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Bengals defense....while I do expect the loss of Pac Man to hurt overall, I can see them off setting the damage with Henne turnovers and a score.

BUFFALO BILLS@KC CHIEFS: BILLS: the Bills came close to a huge upset, catching the Ravens sleeping. The emergence of Steve Johnson along side Lee Evans was just what this team needed. The future looks bright for Fitzgerald whom put up 28 fantasy points last week. The Bills are still a run first team but unless they get more production from Spiller and Jackson things may shift more to passing as we saw last week. Expect just that as KC's run defense is ranked a legitimate 3rd. Where KC can be beat is their 19th pass defense. Given the success they had last week, the Bills will try to recapture that lightning they sparked last week.
CHIEFS: I will say it again, TJ and JC may be the only RB tandem worth starting every week! If you have them. The duo must be sleepless this week knowing they face the 31st ranked rush defense. The Chiefs may not even need to throw a pass in this one. The pass game will no doubt open up because of the run so expect another decent day from Cassel but huge performances by the backs. Of course, watch it become a low scoring affair because of the easy expectations.

While the Bills should be confident after a great performance, they could also be shaking off the bad taste left in their mouths after their best performance coming up short. Arrowhead would be the last place I expect them to win their first game. KC 28-BUFF 17

FANTASY STARTS: BUFF: Fitzpatrick (280 yds. 2 TD) Johnson (6 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Evans ( 5 for 80 yds. 1 TD)
KC: Charles (13 for 90 yds. 1 TD/ 3 for 40 yds.) Jones (10 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Bowe ( 4 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Mokeaki (4 for 50 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: CJ Spiller BUFF....while the Chiefs will be ready for Jackson, speed backs like Spiller have had some success against the Chiefs.

CAROLINA PANTHERS@ST. LOUIS RAMS: PANTHERS: Carolina came off the bye beating a underachieving 49ers team. While a win is a win but the Panthers can't be over confident about it. Carolina won because of their under rated defense which is 1st against the pass. The return of Steve Smith bodes well for Matt Moore but even better is the emergence of a possible second receiving threat in Gettis who blew up against the 49er secondary. They have another good match up here in the Rams 25th pass defense. The possible loss of Williams this week will hurt as the Rams are middle of the pack against the run. Even if Williams plays, he will be slowed down by the injury and Stewart hasn't done anything this year that stands out in the run game. I do see solid days for Smith and Gettis with Stewart doing some damage coming out of the back field for passes.
RAMS: S. Jax injured a finger last week and had surprise surgery on Tuesday. He tweeted he would be good to go this week and I would expect so since he has played through worse. What is more perplexing was the dissapearing act of Denario Alexander last week against the Bucs leading to rumours he was injured. The Rams will need him against this top ranked pass defense. Carolina is 21st against the rush and very similar to the defense the Rams just played in Tampa as weaknesses go. Expect Jackson to be the main weapon of choice and Spagnulo to try and chip away at the Panthers with a hefty dose of Amendola.

St.Louis should be ready to regroup from their mistakes last week as they face another team which is similar to the Bucs. This will be Matt Moore's first road trip since injury and there may be some adjusting. A less than 100% Williams or lack thereof completely only makes things easier for the Rams. However, Amendola will not be enough to keep Jackson from seeing a stacked box up front. CAR 20-RAMS 17.

FANTASY STARTS: CAR: Smith (6 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Gettis (4 for 50 yds.) Stewart (15 for 60 yds.1 TD/ 6 for 40 yds.)
RAMS: Jackson (17 for 80 yds. 1 TD/ 3 for 20 yds.) Amendola (7 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Brandon Gibson.....The Rams will need him involved if nothing else than to serve as a distraction from the focus on the run game. I don't see big numbers, but he could sneak in for a score on a play action inside the ten.

DENVER BRONCOS@SF 49ERS: DEN: Mcdaniels no doubt led an ass chewing after one of the worst beatings we've seen in a while. It must especially hurt that it came against the Raiders. There are whispers in Denver of bringing in Tebow so look for Orton to be more focused than ever in order to squash the whispers. He should right the ship as he faces the 21st ranked 49er pass defense. SF is middle of the pack versus the run and Moreno had a good game but he did most his damage through the air. Expect a heavy pass attack this week.
49ERS: Alex Smith will miss this week in all probability with a shoulder sprain, but David Carr did little last week to instill confidence. Troy Smith is getting the reps in practice and will get the start. Denver is 16th against the pass and have fallen to dead last against the run after last week. There will be many holes for Gore, but expect Denver to make stopping him priority one. The question is how rusty is Smith and can he take advantage of the match up?

Denver is banged up defensively and it showed last week. Now they go to visit a team equally as desperate but in a better situation overall. Singletary was not crazy to think they still have a shot at the division. SF muscles up here and puts on their best game of the year for win number two. SF 24-DEN 21.

FANTASY STARTS: DEN: Lloyd (6 for 90 yds. 1 TD) D. Thomas (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD). Moreno (11 for 50 yds/ 3 for 40 yds. 1 TD) Gaffney (4 for 60 yds.)
SF: Gore (16 for 80 yds. 1 TD/ 5 for 50 yds) Davis ( 6 for 50 yds. 1 TD) Crabtree (5 for 80 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Troy Smith SF....He knows what this can do for his career. He has no pressure and has nothing to lose. Don't be shocked if he is the surprise of the week. I like Troy Smith and think he has the tools to win!

GREEN BAY PACKERS@NY JETS: PACKERS: Aaron Rogers and company outlasted Favre last week in a game that had implications moving forward. Donald Driver was limited due to injury and James Jones stepped up for him, posting 107 yards, proving it doesn't matter who Rogers is throwing to. Brandon Jackson has gotten more effective as the season moves on fantasy wise scoring no lower than about 8 pts the last three weeks. However, this week he faces the stingy Jets run defense which ranks 4th. He should wind up with his average day of 50 yds. and a score since the Jets are vulnerable to the pass game. With Jennings likely to see a lot of Revis island, expect James Jones to be the match up Rogers looks for. Lowery and Wilson have had games where they have been caught with their pants down and Jones has the talent to be a solid play even if Driver is 100%. We also could have found Jermichael Finley's replacement in Quarless. He looked every bit athletic as Finley and looks to be an upgrade from Lee. He should see more time this week.
NY JETS: They are coming off a bye, at home against a Green Bay team finding a new way to win without a good run game. The Jets 15th pass defense should have it's hands full and will face some mismatches if James Jones plays as well as he did last week. Tomlinson and Greene will be facing a Packer defense that has fallen to 28th. The Packers are better at defending the pass, so expect to see a lot of run plays early on. Both Tomlinson and Greene have value here and could both see the end zone. While the Jets will be effective passing, Sanchez seems to be a guy whom the bye week can affect in a negative way. He can be very streaky and was looking great throwing the ball. The down time may take him the half to get back into the swing of things.

While I am a big fan of the bye weeks, the Packers just beat a Minnesota team delivering their best shot. Clay Mathews is back and will cause problems for Sanchez who makes mistakes under pressure. In the end, it's a Sanchez pick that makes the difference.
GB 31-NYJ 24.

FANTASY STARTS: GB: Jennings (5 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Jones (6 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Jackson ( 13 for 50 yds. 1 TD) NYJ: Tomlinson (14 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Greene (9 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Holmes (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: A. Quarless GB...He could very well be the difference maker, that one guy whom the Jets are not able to account for amid the pass game. I expect him to be put more on display and get another score.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS@ARIZONA CARDINALS: Josh Freeman has a knack for 4th Quarter come back wins and it's a good thing he does. Tampa has been able to hang around close enough each game to allow his theatrics but may have found an answer to their problems. The lack of running game which has averaged 3 YPC (25th) this year was helped with the emergence of Legarette Blount last week as he rushed for 72 yards on 11 carries. Up until the second half when he was given the ball, it has been the Freeman show. Finding the run game will only make the Bucs more effective at the pass where they are ranked 22nd. Mike Williams is quietly having a great rookie year catching 3 TD passes in six games played and leads the NFL WR's with 365 passing yards...no joke. He is Freeman's top target and a solid #3 WR. Blount will also have good value moving ahead as a bye week play/low end #3 RB and is a possible start here as the Cards rank 26th against the rush.
CARDINALS: Max Hall had a rookie game last week but looks to rebound but will find it hard against the Bucs 2nd ranked pass defense. Especially without a decent option at the #2 WR spot, the Bucs will be able to bring up help in stopping the run where they rank 29th in rush defense. Beanie Wells has been slowly getting his feet under him and has a great match up as mentioned. He will face a stacked box until Hall makes the Bucs back off, but the match up is still good enough to start him if better options are on a bye week. Fitzgerald has had a hard time this year with all of the changes and being the only weapon on the team. He should still get good numbers this week but it will be the run game that sees the most use.

These two teams couldn't be more opposite of where they were last year overall, but the Cardinals are still 3-3 and not going away lightly. The Bucs actually have played better and more effective on the road. I'm not being a homer here and believe that because of the Bucs better balance and new found run game they squeak another one out. TB 19- ARI 17

FANTASY STARTS: BUCS: Mike Williams (5 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Blount (12 for 60 yds. 1 TD) C. Williams (10 for 55 yds.) Winslow ( 4 for 60 yds.) ARI: Wells (14 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Fitzgerald (6 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Sammy Stroughter TB....with Rogers-Cromartie likely to shadow Williams, Stroughter is the second most reliable target who is a possession guy with good speed that can rack up yardage if the holes are there.

TENNESSEE TITANS@SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: Kenny Britt of all people has emerged as fantasy's #4 WR and has taken full advantage of teams focus on CJ. It looks like Vince Young will return after Collins played hurt last week but still managed a win. Young will face the Chargers rated 3rd pass defense and Johnson faces the Chargers 8th ranked pass rush. Where the Titans will find the most success will be special teams and the run game. Vince coming off injury, on the road, with a little rust doesn't point to another 40 point day for Britt. Expect CJ to get his usual work load but lower receiver expectations.
CHARGERS: Tennessee gets toasted by wide out's and faces a team set to get back Naanee and will have Gates a week healthier. Malcom Floyd is not scheduled to return until next week so look for Naanee to have a good first day back. Mathews has been a huge let down and will not come close to his pre season expectations. If you have Tolbert as his handcuff, he is the one I would actually start because of his red zone potential. The Titans are solid against the rush 13th so expect what we've seen from Tolbert the last few weeks in a score with low yardage.

The Titans will have a harder time against the Chargers whom are another team that despite their horrible start are still viable division contenders. SD 24- TEN 17

FANTASY STARTS: TENN: Johnson (15 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Britt ( 5 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
SD: Rivers ( 300 yds. 2 TD) Naanee ( 4 for 60 yds.) B. Davis ( 6 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Gates ( 5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Tolbert ( 6 for 40 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Bo Scaife TEN....Tight Ends have had great success against the Chargers and Scaife could be the wild card here. Young will look for him often and Scaife catches a score.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS@ NE PATRIOTS: MINN: Favre seems like a 50-50 shot but even if he is not able to go, do not sleep on Tavaris Jackson. No he is not the leader Favre is but he is not a scrub either and has never had these weapons to throw to. They face a Patriots secondary ranked 26th against the pass and 5th against the run. Expect Tavaris to have no choice but to pass and this bumps up the value of Schiancoe if Jackson does get the start. If not, I still bump Schiancoe up because they are trying to get him more looks. Harvin should have another solid day, but look for Moss to get the lions share of the catches. Facing his old team....from....3 weeks ago, weird....Moss showed frustration last week and you can bet the Vikings want him happy. Expect them to ensure he is the biggest part of the pass game plan.
PATS: Everyone is trying to get used to this dink and dunk offense, but until Tate or somebody steps up they will continue on this path. Woodhead looks to be the changing of the guard and replacement to Welker. He is targeted often by Brady who trusts him and he is a dual role players guaraunteed to get a certain number of snaps and receptions. He is a good play here against the Vikes 6th rated pass defense. The Vikings allowed J. Jones from GB to rack up the yardage last week while they focused on the Packer's main threats. I see a similar game plan here only the Packers had more fire power. Another guy to expect and see good production out of is Aaron Hernandez whom has been impressive and will be the one who can sneak over the middle for chunks of yards.

The Vikings are in a very serious position here and now travel to New England. The Patriots need that deep threat to keep a defense like the Vikings on their heels and New England doesn't have the run game to force the Vikings up. MIN 24-NE 21.

FANTASY STARTS: MIN: Harvin ( 4 for 60 yds 1 TD/ 3 for 25yds) Moss ( 7 for 90 yds 1 TD) Peterson ( 14 for 70 yds. 1 TD/ 4 for 40 yds.) PATS: Woodhead ( 4 for 50 yds/ 6 for 35 yds.) Hernandez (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Welker (6 for 80 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Brandon Tate NE...The Pats have set a base line of what teams are to expect out of them now, and the deep ball is not part of that. A few surprise deep balls to him may catch the Vikings off guard.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS@OAKLAND RAIDERS: SEATTLE: The Seahawks just continue to find ways to win despite their low ratings. What they are is effective at moving the chains when they need to and stopping the run, where they rank 2nd right now. They travel to Oakland who will put that ranking to the test with Mcfadden and Bush. Mike Williams should be lining up opposite Routt/Johnson and not Asomugha, so it will be interesting to see if Cable assigns Asomugha to Williams since he is really Seattle's only pass threat and will limit Seattle. Marshawn Lynch looks to have taken on the lead back duties, carrying over 20 times last week and faces a very porous Raider run defense. Forsett could be very involved in the pass game out the back field if and when Williams is limited in his production.
RAIDERS: They are riding high after last week and return home against an opponent more suited to expose their weaknesses. However, the Raiders will be able to afford bringing up extra help against the run this week since Seattle lacks talent depth at WR and are facing a strong secondary. The Raiders plan should be simple, use Mcfadden to set up the pass. While Seattle is good at stopping the run, they have not faced a team as effective at running the ball as Oakland. Mcfadden will come back to human status this week but still post decent numbers and Campbell could have another surprise day against this secondary. Zach Miller will be more involved since Murphy looks to miss this game with a bruised lung. Heyward-Bey could possibly become a fantasy factor, but when Murphy has been out in the past he has failed to produce.

The loss of Louis Murphy will make this a low scoring affair since each team will be somewhat one dimensional for the defensive match up's. Oakland's defense has been creating pressure for opposing QB's and are on a roll since beating San Diego. After last week, they must be prepared.
OAK 24-SEA 21.

FANTASY STARTS: SEA: Lynch (17 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Forsett (6 for 35 yds/ 5 for 50 yds. 1 TD) OAK: Mcfadden (15 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Miller (7 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Bush ( 7 for 50 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Carlson SEA...widely ignored this year, he will be the best chance at Seattle moving the ball through the air.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS@NO SAINTS: PITT: Big Ben has sparked the pass game, making Miller, Wallace, and Ward fantasy studs again. Expect a performance much like last week though as New Orleans is very good against the pass (3rd) but weaker against the run. The defense is very similar to Miami although Mendenhall should find room against the Saints middle of the pack run defense. This will be Ben's second road game with a tough match up for him. As stated, the numbers for your fantasy guys should be similar to last week except for Mendenhall. Look for Heath Miller to be more involved as the Steelers opt for those short intermediate throws and the run game to move the ball.
SAINTS: They can still pass the ball, and that's where the Steelers can be beat. The Steelers 3rd ranked rush defense doesn't bode well for Ivory. Chris Ivory should be very ineffective this week and warrants a benching if you have options. Look for Brees to throw a hell of a lot to exploit this secondary.

The Steelers face their second straight road game and Ben faces an even tougher match up than last week. While Mendenhall will ease the pressure, the Saints pass game should be effective and prove to score more than the Steeler Offense can. NO 28-PITT 21

FANTASY STARTS: PITT: Mendenhall (15 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Ward (7 for 65 yds 1 TD) Miller (5 for 60 yds. 1 TD) SAINTS: Moore ( 6 for 70 yds 1 TD) Colston (5 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Meachem (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Ladell Betts NO....While Ivory will get the nod with Bush and Thomas out, I like Betts the best to score. The Steeler defense is nasty and effective against suave backs like Ivory. Betts is hard nosed and can push the pile on a short yardage red zone situation. Don't expect big yardage, but he may be good for a score.

Monday, October 25, 2010

SUNDAY IN REVIEW

BENGALS: The Bengals came out flat but then found their game in the second half. Carson continues to be fantasy relevant because of how much he is throwing, and Ocho is clearly the only receiver worth starting and TO is nothing but a flex play if you don't have other options. I know he had a good day but Shipley is eating into his production. Cedric Benson coughed the ball up in a critical situation which led to a Falcon score and would wind up being the difference. He has not lived up to his pre-season hype and is a good sell if you can get value for him. He is currently ranked 17th in standard scoring and has only broken double digit fantasy points once.

FALCONS: This is a team that has only a few weapons, yet despite everyone knowing what is coming they are still effective. It's like trying to hit Mariano Rivera's cutter. You know what he's gonna throw but his one trick is better than anything you can do about it. Roddy White is on track to finish this year as a top three WR and has scored double digit fantasy points in all but one game. Matt Ryan is still a number two QB but seems to be slowly evolving into a possible start status depending on your options. Mike Turner has only scored double digit points now in two games, and this was his second game of the season with a score. I see him as a sell high after this performance. He has not lived up to his first round status and you should be able to trade him for a guy like Felix Jones who has more upside going ahead and a solid #2 WR.

STEELERS: I called a Miami upset, and it should have been in the end there but Big Ben got lucky once again. He is obviously a solid starter at QB and the value of Hines Ward is back to normal. Most likely, anyone who drafted Wallace, Ward, or Ben did so in the middle rounds and has a solid line up already so these guys have just made your team that much better. I do think that Mendenhall's value actually decreases with the return of Ben since he's been relied on less and the Steelers are more effective passing. Mike Wallace is a must start every game going ahead and will finish the second half as a top ten WR.

DOLPHINS: Oh Ronnie Brown...where are you? The Dolphins have become a passing team with the ineffective run game this year. Neither Brown nor Williams has come close to their original values, and I don't see things getting much better for them. Henne is still not a starting QB on your team, but Hartline and Bess are emerging as guys who are fantasy relevant come your bye week or depending on the match up.

BILLS: What? Go buy a lottery ticket if you saw this one coming. Fitzpatrick a 28 pt. day against the Ravens? Don't jump on the bandwagon yet, though Fitz does have value as a number two guy because he will be throwing so much. Although Lee Evans had the monster game here, Steven Johnson is the WR you want on this squad. He has been the most consistent week to week and has great value in keeper leagues. I still don't trust either RB as a start unless it's against lesser defenses.

RAVENS: Nothing changes for this team in fantasy perspectives, but talk about being unprepared. In their defense, Buffalo always plays to the level of their competition and is the Cinderella man of football. The Ravens will be good to go moving ahead as your starters are concerned but I think Houshmenzadeh has value as a player but not in fantasy. He should carry nothing more than sleeper status from here out. Rice has been somewhat of a let down so far, scoring in double digits in only three of the seven games. He does have a great schedule though coming after the bye week, facing only two tough rush defenses in Pittsburgh and Miami. He should payoff for you soon.

JAGS: Uhh, Todd Bouman, you may be 38 years old but here's your new five year deal....That's what the Jags should be saying. A guy who hasn't thrown a game pass in five years just performed better than any of your starters. Even better, he made the Jags players somewhat relevant again. If Del Rio has any cojones he will start Bouman again to see what he can do for this team. Though, isn't this a huge knock on Del Rio being the problem? A QB who you only had a week to coach lights it up compared to the QB you have groomed. MJD finally had that game we were all waiting for, though keep in mind he only put up 47 rush yards. Yes, KC is stout against the run but he has only broken the century mark on the ground once this year. Only one other time did he come close so far. Given this team and just how bad the pass defense has been, they will be throwing a lot more to come. Yes Drew still has value in the pass game as he just showed, but I think he is a great sell high candidate who can garner multiple players to shore up the holes on your team. You can probably get a top WR and a guy like Cedric Benson, Felix Jones, Moreno, T. Jones, or B. Wells. All guys who can give you a decent average close to the norm for Jones Drew.

CHIEFS: As I've said before, the Chiefs may have the only fantasy duo at RB worth starting every week. With the pass game coming alive we can see the benefits Jones and Charles are reaping. KC has the best schedule this year against the rush and both have potential to produce. Although, if you have needs and multiple backs worthy of starting, Thomas Jones is the one you would want to part with over Charles barring any injury. Charles is getting the touches and has more long term value as the season goes on. The Chiefs are the real deal this year and should win their division.

BROWNS: Hello upset city! The Browns have always had a good defense but 4 picks on what many consider the 2nd best QB in the league? While this was a great win, don't expect it to happen again. Sorry Browns fan. Peyton Hillis continues to impress and is a solid #2 RB going ahead. The overall problem will be the growing curve McCoy has to face since he is a rookie and will limit Cribbs' value and Masssaqoui when he returns. Ben Watson's value on the other hand should continue to be high as McCoy will continue to rely on him. He is a TE who may quietly be a top ten for the season when all is said and done.

SAINTS: I was saying it all pre-season to whomever would listen. Being a Bucs fan, no team in this division tends to repeat winning it the next year. Also, the numerous surgeries to all the WR's gave me doubts. They have all looked to be missing a step except for Lance Moore whom looks to finally be healthy after struggling with injury last year. Brees just had a bad game, and not much should be read into his performance. The great thing about the Saints is that even on a Brees off day both he and the team still have fantasy value. Colston is slowly looking like the receiver we expected of him and should be solid moving ahead. Reggie Bush should be back this week which is great news for a team that is missing the dimensions he brings. It should also have an impact on Chris Ivory's value so trade him if you can while you can. This was just a bad day for the Saints, but do not expect last year's numbers as they have proven to have lost a step.

REDSKINS: They are the epitome of Rocky this year. They get beaten all game, take their lumps and in the end deliver a knock out blow after wearing you down. This game wasn't as typical, since both teams made a number of errors. In the end, it was Deangelo Hall's record day that led the Skins to victory. All the names continue to be decent fantasy starts, but the guy I am most excited about is Anthony Armstrong. While he finished with only 42 yds, he dropped a pass that would have gone for about a 30 yard score in open field. Mcnabb trusts him and he has become the down field threat that matches Moss. He will be a feast or famine guy, but his famine consists of about 5 fantasy points. Not that horrible for a #3 guy who has the ability to score double digits in any game. Especially with bye weeks, he garners great consideration.

BEARS: Jay Cutler single handedly gave the game to the Redskins with four picks, but the blame doesn't fall completely on him. He was also sacked four times and faced pressure throughout the game. This Offensive line needs to create more time for Jay. A QB running for his life all game can't be effective no matter who you are. Johnny Knox is definitely the only Bears WR you can trust, and will face the Buffalo secondary after the bye. Other than Forte, I would sell high on all your Bears. They face Minnesota, Philly, New England, and the Jets at home along with Minnesota and Miami on the road. Excluding NE, all these teams have good secondaries and are solid overall defensively.

49ERS: Alex Smith went down with a shoulder injury to his non throwing arm which opened the door for David Carr. Too bad he showed nothing to garner confidence and threw the interception that allowed a Carolina win. It's too early to abandon ship fantasy wise as we need to see what Carr does with a week of practice as the starter. Smith was just starting to look somewhat dependable and now there may be more frustration to come for Crabtree and Davis owners. Gore is and will continue to be the work horse for this team and is an obvious start every week.

PANTHERS: It looks like Matt Moore was the right choice for coach Fox as he threw for two TD's . D. Gettis was the primary beneficiary catching a TD and 125 yards. We may have found a second WR that makes Carolina relevant again and takes some pressure off Steve Smith, but let's wait and see what this team does next week. They beat an uninspiring team who has fallen hard. Both Deangelo Williams and Stewart continue to be major disappointments but do have some good match up's coming up. Williams has been listed as day to day with injury so Stewart gets a slight bump in the coming weeks as a Flex play.

RAMS: The Rams continued their road losing ways against the Bucs, but had the game in their grasp until a Josh Freeman TD pass to Cadillac Williams with only 20 seconds left. Steven Jackson looked good and was extremely effective against the Bucs rush defense. Sam Bradford also threw 2 TD passes but was held to 126 pass yards. The Rams were at a loss in terms of finding a passing game but were effective in the red zone where it mattered. They let the Bucs hang around, hitting field goals throughout the game. Danny Amendola is the receiver to trust on this team as Denario Alexander disappeared completely. Steven Jackson continues to be a very under rated back this year, as he has scored double digit points every week except one. He did have some type of surgery on Monday to a finger but looks good to go based on his words. Bradford has also proven to be a viable number two QB.

BUCCANEERS: Josh Freeman continued his 4th quarter come backs pulling out a win in the final two minutes which led to the Bucs only TD of the day. He looked overall off his game, having a bad day until the second half. Mike Williams came inches from a score and is the WR you want on this team. He is just outside of top 20 WR in fantasy and is someone who continues to slip under the radar. He showed special poise on the last drive where with time winding down instead of running out of bounds, he cut in and ran for another fifteen yards which set up the score. Cadillac Williams is all but drop material as Legarette Blount ran for over 70 yds. and showed the best performance by a back this year. He is a definite pick up this week. Freeman has been reliable as a QB 2 this year but is still lower tier #2. Kellen Winslow is playing hurt and it is showing. He will have his games where he blows up, but don't expect him to return to last years stats.

EAGLES: Kolb officially lost the job with his 2 interception day and misses the opportunity to continue his hold on what could have been his. The Eagles are a much different team without Desean Jackson and there is a shot he can return after the bye. The Eagles played a good team that is going largely unnoticed. The Titans defense has played better than anyone expected, but Kolb had his chances and could not get it done. Vick will return and hopefully get the Eagles back on track. The bye comes at a perfect time for the Eagles so they can regroup and get their guys some health back. Celek has been a huge let down and if you can find a better replacement do so. Kolb was his best bet at fantasy scoring and now that he is going to be second fiddle, Celek loses the little value he has.

TITANS: Kenny Britt has emerged into a fantasy monster and the future looks bright for him depending on if he avoids a suspension and future trouble. Chris Johnson has opened up the passing game for Britt but the Titans need Nate Washington to step it up. Bo Scaife is putting up numbers very similar to Washington and that isn't a good thing. Vince Young looks to possibly return this week and will get his job back. Though it is comforting to know Collins hasn't missed a step and is a very solid replacement. The Titan defense is quietly having a very solid year and warrant consideration as a capable defense to start.

CARDINALS: Max Hall left in the third Quarter after having his bell rung and Anderson again proved unable to make something happen. Hall has been named the QB for the season but there will be cause for concern in Arizona since he is just getting his feet wet. Fitzgerald carries name value only this year. While he will get his, it will be a far cry from what we expect from him. If you can get a good deal trading Fitz in non-keeper leagues, I say do it while you can. The better news is that both Wells and Hightower looked decent but Wells is definitely the guy you want as he is getting double the carries and most likely to score. Neither one is a safe play yet but they only have two games left on the fantasy schedule which look like tough run match ups.

SEAHAWKS: They continue to get the job done, chipping away at opponents. This is a team playing very similar to the Redskins as they always seem to do just enough to win. Mike Williams is officially a legitimate starter and has looked to shed the baggage he once literally carried. Hasselbeck trusts Williams and is the only WR you can trust on this team for now. Marshawn Lynch's 24 carries to Forsett's 9 has to worry you as a Forsett owner. It looks like Carrol trusts Lynch and has all but crowned him the lead back. Like Arizona, the Hawks back field only have two somewhat tough run defenses left to face so Lynch is a good #2 going ahead.

PATRIOTS: They just got away with one against the Chargers and this new offense is taking some getting used too. Brady is spreading the ball out too much to trust anyone at this point, even Welker. This is reminiscent of the old Patriots that went to the Super Bowl, but minus the swagger. Aaron Hernandez seems to be the best fantasy play for now week in and out with Woodhead a close second because of his carries and receiving abilities. He's one of the first to carry a RB/WR positional slot making him very valuable to your fantasy team. The law firm did not do anything special but again got the carry for a TD. He is only trustworthy as a borderline flex/#2 play at best. The Pats continue to cause headaches for owners of their RB's and a healthy Fred Taylor may just compound things when he returns.

CHARGERS: Another week of Ryan Mathews getting the touches but not the score. The Chargers are a pass first team which opens up the run. You would expect more production from Mathews with teams on their heels, but he has not been able to produce anything close to expectations. Tolbert seems to be the guy you want because of his nose for the end zone, and I would expect Norv to maybe get him back to touching the ball more. Rivers is a great play regardless of who he's throwing too. With another week of rest for Gates and Floyd, the team should be more effective. Floyd is still a question mark this week and we may be getting closer to seeing Naanee return. Stay patient with your Chargers, but look for options if you own Mathews.

RAIDERS: Don't even act like you saw this one coming. The Raiders had their best day in years where everything they did resulted in a TD. A game like this only makes things harder to evaluate since they went from a horrible game against the 49ers to a lifetime game in Denver. What we can take for fact is Mcfadden is recovered and a solid starter from here on out and Zach Miller is the only receiving option you can trust. Murphy re-injured his collar bone and has questions on if he will be ready this week coming. Forget about buying into Campbell just yet until he shows reliability two weeks in a row. The Oakland defense has been playing well but faces some tough opponents from here on out.

BRONCOS: Nothing changes here in terms of fantasy starts, though Moreno does become slightly more reliable after two weeks of decent performances on the ground. Far from great, he has proven to be Denver's best option. Overall, this is a game you chalk up to fate. The Broncos were beaten around from the first possession and will return to their passing form and effectiveness next week. Start the guys you have in confidence next week.

VIKINGS: Don't panic just yet Harvin and Moss owners. Yes Favre's iron man streak may come to an end, but he wasn't really lights out so far. Despite his ineffectiveness, the WR core has put up points and Tavaris could be a good thing. He will especially pay off for Schiancoe and Harvin in those intermediate routes. While Moss may take a slight hit in value, he will still be the top red zone target cause of his size and don't underestimate Jackson's ability to throw deep. He's never had all these weapons at once to work with and will surprise if given a chance. While Favre is not a sure bet to be ruled out, my guess he is done for at minimum a week. He looked to be very hampered by the injury and a heel isn't the best place for a QB to get injured. If he is out, look for more doses of Peterson. Thankfully, the Vikes face the NE secondary next week so don't expect a big drop off from any production in your receivers. Buy low on Harvin and Moss if there are anxious owners out there.

PACKERS: Brandon Jackson had another productive fantasy day and although he is putting up average yardage, the ability for Rogers to get him within scoring distance makes him a decent play. The biggest thing I noticed was the play of Andrew Quarless. He caught a TD and looked more athletic than Lee and reminiscent of Finley. Expect Mcarthy to use him more next game. If he produces again you may have your new GB TE #1 for the season which carries good value. Pick him up and stash him for a week if you have the room. I wouldn't completely buy into James Jones yet though he would be interesting in a keeper league to pick up if you have the room to stash a guy for a while. Given Driver's age and injury issue, Jones could even pay off this year IF he continues to get the playing time instead of Driver.

COWBOYS: What a difference a day makes....Romo looks to be out anywhere from 6 to 10 weeks with a fractured clavicle. While Kitna is a serviceable replacement, he is far from the threat or talent Romo is. Dez Bryant would be about the only guy I trust as far as the receivers go since he will run those routes Kitna is comfortable with. Austin takes the biggest hit, as his down field value diminishes with Kitna. I would buy low on Felix Jones however. The Boys will need to run the ball more often in hopes of not putting too much on Kitna and Jones has the best upside. The problem comes if the Cowboys continue to find themselves behind and need to pass more. Even then, Jones pass catching ability does make him interesting. While the Cowboys won't necessarily mail it in for the season, they are in a big hole to dig out of. We will have to see what Kitna can do since he's always been an under rated QB and has ability to manage a game if given the chance. This could not be as bad as we all think if Kitna avoids turning the ball over.

GIANTS: Manning started off bad but finished with a career day, tossing 4 TD's. Jacobs and Bradshaw continued their effectiveness in their new defined roles and Hakeem Nicks had another feast this game. Steve Smith may have cemented himself as the #2 WR you want over Manningham, but week to week it is still uncertain. Nicks is the only sure play at WR but now Jacobs has increased his value big time. The Giants have a great schedule after the bye but face Minnesota, Philadelphia, and Green Bay come playoff time. Something to keep in your mind going forward. If you have depth at RB and Jacobs is on your squad I say sell high and address weaknesses on your team.


MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PREVIEW

NY GIANTS @ DALLAS COWBOYS: COWBOYS: Despite Dallas' great rankings and success in the pass game, the Cowboys continue to let games slip away from them in the closing moments. Part of it all points to poor coaching discipline. Penalties have killed them in at least two games and blown routes and assignments have hurt them in key situations as well. Felix Jones has officially been given lead back duties, and the Cowboys will benefit from it. They need him as they rank 25th in Rushing and face the Giants 7th ranked pass defense. Romo won't have it any easier as the Giants have been stingy against the pass too and rank 2nd. The Cowboys may catch a break is Kiwanuka misses time, but I see the key to this game being the run attack. The Boys are beating opponents in every category except the run, but they choose the worst times to allow a turn over or a penalty. This has been a week of reflection no doubt, and expect the Boys to come out in their best form.
GIANTS: The Giants have found their run game now that both Jacobs and Bradshaw have roles which suit them perfectly and more importantly are happy with. They rank 6th in rushing and will face the Cowboys 12th ranked run defense. While the Giants will see success on the ground, they may be without Hakeem Nicks whom is questionable with a hammy issue. Expect him to play, but you won't know until kick off if you can play him. If he is out, the Giants have a tougher hill to climb against the Dallas 4th ranked pass defense. The Giants know what they have to do and that is pound the ball and control the clock, something they do well. However, Manning has shown the ability to pass 50 times a game if it dictates.

I don't see this as a shootout high scoring affair. Both teams will look to lead with their run games in order to set up the pass. The Cowboys are desperate and at home. DALLAS 24- NYG 21.

FANTASY STARTS: NYG: Bradshaw (13 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Jacobs ( 8 for 40 yds. 1 TD) Nicks (5 for 80 yds. 1 TD) ....give these numbers to Manningham is Nicks is out.
COWBOYS: Romo (250 yds 2 TD) F. Jones (14 for 60 yds./ 4 for 35 yds, 1 TD) Williams (5 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Austin ( 7 for 90 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: S. Smith NYG....with or without Nicks, Steve Smith will be the odd man out when it comes to Dallas' pass coverage. Smith will need to have key receptions and should be that guy who sneaks in for a score.

Saturday, October 23, 2010

SATURDAY ODDS and ENDS

Sunday night in Green Bay there is a 60% chance of rain, and it will have been raining for most the day at that point. You always start your studs, but if conditions are less than ideal it could hurt the pass game for both teams.

Adrian Peterson has rushed for a TD in 4 straight games versus Green Bay.

Seattle has rain expected for their game and breezy. Seattle has not lost at home yet, while Arizona is 1-2 on the road. Their only win coming against St. Louis in the first game.

Matt Hasselbeck is 16-5 in his last 21 games versus divisional foes.

The Chargers are 20-6 at home under Norv.

Donovan Mcnabb is 4-1 career in Chicago.




Thursday, October 21, 2010

FRIDAY GUT CHECK

A list of players whom despite the match up or expectations gnaw at you as a good play despite all the facts. We all have em, here are mine.....

BEANIE WELLS ARI: He's playing Seattle's 2nd ranked run defense in Seattle, on an offense that has been terrible. Yet, Beanie has had a bye weak to continue his health and is the clear lead back. Arizona should have taken their win against New Orleans as a motivator and used that during an extra week of study for Seattle. Expect to see Wells best effort and I believe he could wind up as a solid number two RB in hindsight after Sunday.

CADILLAC WILLIAMS TB: He has averaged a miserable 3 YPC this year and has yet to put up a decent game. Yet last week he was inches from a score and has had a few big runs negated by penalties. He faces a mediocre run defense this week at home in St. Louis. His job was on the line last week as Kareem Huggins was slated to start taking his carries, but after two touches, Huggins was lost for the year with injury. So, Cadillac gets a week stay of facing the bench and his future is on the line this week. Enough motivation and a good match up make this a possible surprise week.

STEVE JOHNSON BUFF: The Bills face the Ravens in Baltimore and while this sums up to the "they will have to throw cause they are down" theory, this is one time I believe it fits right. Buffalo will face a deficit and will need to play catch up. I expect Baltimore to rest it's starters towards the end and allow some good fantasy time for guys like Johnson.

MIKE CRAYTON SD: Naanee is a question mark, Floyd looks to be out, Gates is questionable and now on Thursday Buster Davis was named probable with a rib issue. We know what Crayton can do and we know Rivers is going to throw often because of their depth at WR and scheme. I believe if Gates does play, Crayton becomes his second most trust worthy target and they will put up some points against the weak Patriots defense.

MAURICE JONES DREW JAGS: MJD has been nothing close to his top five status this year and as I've said in the past, I believe he is playing injured. He faces a KC rush defense that ranks 5th with the possibility of Gerrard and Edwards missing time, though unlikely. MJD should be relied on heavily this week, more than normal, and more than normal when it comes to the passing game. Don't be surprised if he has his best game of the year this week. He is a must start every week since if you own him you probably don't have better options. I say start him and expect minimum 10 fantasy points.

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

WEEK 7 PREVIEW

CINCINNATI BENGALS at ATLANTA FALCONS: BENGALS: The Bengals no doubt spent their bye week shoring up their pass issues. Ochocinco, T.O. and Carson Palmer have not looked in snyc this year and it has affected Cedric Benson's effectiveness. They now face Atlanta who plays better at home but is facing further pass defense issues as Dunta Robinson looks to be held out this week due to his concussion after a hit on Deshaun Jackson. Atlanta already ranks 25th against the pass and that was with Robinson. Cincinnati ranks 7th passing even with their lack of continuity passing wise and face a great match up here. Look for the Bengals to air it out often and Carson to have his best game of the season after preparing well to take advantage of the situation. Atlanta ranks 9th against the rush so expect an average day for Benson.
FALCONS: The Falcons boast the 7th rated rush offense and face the Bengals 18th ranked rush defense. The Falcons know the Bengals will air it out and will give Cedric Benson all the work he can handle to keep the ball out of Palmer's hands. Matt Ryan finally got Jenkins back who saw as many targets as White last week. The Bengals do have corners capable of covering Jenkins and White well leaving the opportunity to bring a man up against Turner's rush attack. Turner has not looked particularly stellar this year but will be a good start given the work load he should see. Given the tight secondary the Bengals will play, look for Gonzales to score with single coverage.

Cincinnati has the better match ups here offensively and despite their lack of a pass rush will probably use a lot of cover 1 effectively. Cincinnati is in a much more desperate situation and coming off an extra week to prepare should be effective. Atlanta plays great at home but loses this one by a hair. CINCI 27-ATL 24.

FANTASY STARTS: BENGALS: Palmer (270 yds. 2 TD) Ochocinco (5 for 90 1 TD) T.O. (4 for 60 1 TD) FALCONS: Turner (19 for 100 yds. 1 TD) Gonzales (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) White (7 for 80 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: J. Greisham CIN...Given how the ATL secondary will have it's hands full, Greisham should be productive and sneak in for a score.

JACKSONVILLE JAGS at KC CHIEFS: JAGS: David Gerrard went down with what seems to be yet another concussion on Monday night and Trent Edwards has been diagnosed with a thumb injury serious enough for Del Rio to call in some players for a work out. Whoever the QB is, it will be on them to win this game. KC ranks 5th against the run so MJD should be relatively held in check. Good news for Jags is that they also rank 25th against the pass. However if it boils down to Patrick Ramsey or some other guy they pull off the street all Jags, yes even MJD become secondary thoughts if you have another warm body to replace them. If Gerrard does play, MJD is an average play but Simms-Walker and Mike Thomas become decent #3 WR options.
CHIEFS: Somehow in a game where everything went right for the Chiefs they managed to lose. It was a bad call, but none the less was a loss. Todd Hailey has these guys believing in what they can do and the Chiefs are a legitimate contender for the division this year. Jacksonville is 19th against the run where the Chiefs are tops in the league. The Jags are even worse against the pass facing a Matt Cassel that hit his stride last week and looks to build on it. All the Chiefs look to be solid plays this week in Arrowhead where it's tough enough for better teams to win much less the Jags.

The Chiefs should have a field day with Jacksonville, regardless who starts.
KC 28-JAGS 17.

FANTASY STARTS: CHIEFS: Charles (13 for 90 yds 1 TD) Jones (10 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Cassel (240 yds 1 TD) Bowe (4 for 80 yds. 1 TD)
JAGS: If Gerrard plays...MJD (14 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Mike Simms-Walker (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Chris Chambers....If KC gets up quick they will want to involve Chambers and show him some love after he was the only one left out in the cold last week.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS at CHICAGO BEARS: SKINS: Mcnabb and co. finally ran out of 4th quarter luck against the Colts. Washington continues to hang around and while they are not excelling in anything they always get that play when they need it. Torain should find it hard against the Bears 3rd ranked rush defense leaving it to Mcnabb to put up the points. I love Anthony Armstrong and think by season end he becomes this teams leading TD grabber. Look for a big game from him this week against the Bears 18th ranked pass D.
BEARS: A huge let down last week to the Seabags will have this team hungry again. I called the upset last week and believe it was a result of several factors, one being Cutlers rust. That won't be the case this week. Greg Olsen needs to be involved this week as Martz tends to just forget about him yet the team is more effective when he gets targets. Aromashadu actually played last week and is interesting this week to see how they use him. The Skins rank 31st against the pass so there should be plenty to go around for Knox, Olsen and even Hester.

The Bears offense should thrive in this match up as there really is no Washington defense to speak of.
BEARS 31- SKINS 21

FANTASY STARTS: WASH: Mcnabb (250 yds. 2 TD) Armstrong (5 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Moss (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) CHI: Cutler (300yds. 3 TD) Knox (6 for 110 yds. 1 TD) Hester (5 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Forte ( 14 for 90 yds./ 6 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Olsen ( 4 for 50 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: K. Williams WASH....after last week, he should look to be more involved going ahead. Maybe as a 3rd down back but could see more action with Torain a bit nicked up.

CLEVELAND BROWNS at NO SAINTS: BROWNS: As if it couldn't get worse, Massoqoui and Cribbs went down with injuries. Massoqoui seems more serious as he may have a concussion and was down for a bit before getting up. Cribbs is a gamer and it wouldn't surprise me if he plays. McCoy probably gets the start, but he is facing an uphill battle against a NO pass Defense that ranks 7th and likes to bring the heat. NO brought 8 and even 9 men up against the Bucs last week and should have no problem being effective again. Hillis says he will be fine after getting banged up as well but will see too many Saints in his way to be effective.
SAINTS: Quite simply, a great match up for Brees and co. whom will be facing the Browns 21st pass defense and 23rd Run defense. Chris Ivory should get the start again and is a good bet to hit 100 yards. Look for Colston to get his this week after not having a huge day while everyone else did against the Bucs.

The Saints should roll over the Browns...NO 32-CLE 13.

FANTASY STARTS: BROWNS: Watson (7 for 60yds. 1 TD) Hillis (17 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
SAINTS: EVERYBODY!!! Just be wary of Devery Henderson who continues to look phased out since Bush' injury.
SLEEPER: Julius Jones....The Saints should be trying to be respectable and run often in the 4th, giving Ivory some rest and Jones garbage time that could result in a score. Betts is a possibility here too depending on which back Payton wants to get a better look at.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at TENNESSEE TITANS: EAGLES: Kolb gets the nod as Vick still lingers and all of a sudden Reid seems to be easing off the Vick is the starter rhetoric. The Eagles will be without Deshaun Jackson who suffered memory loss and is a good bet to lose decent time possibly after the bye week. Jason Avant becomes the pick up you want since he's a good possession guy and does have the ability to break one. Celek gets a big boost since he already is Kolb's go to guy in the red zone and of course Maclin is a must start. The Titans have the 23rd ranked pass defense and 8th rush defense so look for a lot of success through the air.
TITANS: Vince Young got away with only a knee sprain but is iffy for Sunday as it stands. Collins looked like he hasn't missed a beat, and should get the start even if Young feels good to go. Scaife seemed to actually play better with Collins and gets a little boost here since Britt will be facing the Eagles 9th rated pass defense. Tennessee will...run the ball, especially against a lower tier rush defense like the Eagles. Look for a lot of ground game, ball control to keep Kolb off the field.

The Titans are hot right now and looking for three straight as are the Eagles. This will be an interesting game and higher scoring than most people would expect since both teams strengths play to each others weaknesses. While the CJ run game will eat clock and move the ball, I give the edge to the Eagles who have a stronger pass game and may force a rusty Collins into a turnover or two which decides the game. Collins looked good last week, but it was the Jags. PHI 28-TEN 24

FANTASY STARTS: EAGLES: Celek (6 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Maclin (8 for 100 yds. 1 TD) McCoy (14 for 60 yds. 1 TD) TITANS: CJ (16 for 110 yds. 2 TD) Britt (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Scaife ( 5 for 55 yds.)
SLEEPER: Jason Avant PHI....He will see enough targets and if the Titans force coverage on Maclin he will get a lions share of the yardage with a score.

BUFFALO BILLS at BALTIMORE RAVENS: BILLS: Fred Jackson is expected to get the ball in his hands more as Buffalo realizes he is their best option as CJ Spiller develops. Unfortunately, he will face 8 man fronts since Baltimore has the 3rd rated pass defense and is capable of keeping the Bills receivers in check with man to man coverage. There really doesn't seem to be many positives for the Bills this week as the Ravens defensive strengths fit well with the Bills strengths. However, S. Johnson will be the one to watch as he has the speed and ability to make the Ravens pay if they get over zealous.
RAVENS: The Ravens are actually middle of the pack in both offensive categories and face a Bills team that does rank 10th against the pass and will focus on Boldin without having to worry about Todd Heap since he looks to miss a game after a helmet to helmet hit and possible concussion. Regardless, the Bills are dead last against the run and will need help up front if they want to try to stop Rice which will lead to Boldin getting his.

The Ravens should not allow a let down and will come out making sure the Bills have their backs against the wall early. BAL 28-BUFF 17.

FANTASY STARTS: BILLS: S. Johnson (6 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Jackson (15 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
RAVENS: Flacco (280 yds. 2 TD) Rice (15 for 100 yds. 1 TD) Boldin (6 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Mason ( 5 for 90 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: W. Mcgahee....after getting zero touches last week, Ray Rice is a prime candidate to get rest after leaving a mark on this worst rated run defense allowing McGahee a good amount of touches.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at MIAMI DOLPHINS: STEELERS: Roethlisberger was no doubt hungry and had a great match up against the Browns during his return. While he will be prepared this week, he faces a much better pass defense in Miami ranked 12th against the pass, and he is on the road for the first time. The Dolphins are a well balanced team defensively, ranking 16th against the run. Big Ben does have the weapons to expose the Dolphins, but Miami is quick and will be his first real challenge of the year. Even against Cleveland there were moments where you saw the little rust and the adjustment to throwing to Wallace. Mendenhall should be called on to relieve that pressure but also will face a decent challenge on the road. Ben's conditioning will also be tested in what is expected to be 90 degree heat with the good old Florida humidity.
DOLPHINS: Henne and the team are coming off a huge confidence booster after beating Green Bay on the road and will no doubt be ready for the Steelers as a result. The Steelers are 1st against the run which will limit the Dolphins 14th run offense. However, the Steelers are 24th against the pass and facing a Henne that will have more steadiness throwing the ball. Marshall should be in for a good day, and the emergence of Bess and Hartline will be an issue for the Steelers.

My upset of the week, Miami's pass game steps up two weeks straight and Ben comes back to earth after an easy opening game. MIA 23-PITT 20.

FANTASY STARTS: STEELERS: Wallace (5 for 80 yds.) Ward (7 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Miller (4 for 50 yds. 1 TD) Mendenhall ( 16 for 80 yds. 1 TD) DOLPHINS: Bess (5 for 60 yds 1 TD) Hartline (4 for 50 yds. 1 TD) Marshall (7 for 85 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Fasano...the Dolphins should be in a position where they throw often to win and Fasano will find room in the middle of the field possibly getting either Bess' or Hartline's score instead of them when it gets inside the ten.

ST. LOUIS RAMS at TAMPA BAY BUCS: RAMS: They got their biggest win of the year without their best receiver as Danario Alexander looks to be the newest rookie sensation. However, the Rams have yet to win on the road and have only traveled to Oakland and Detroit. This will be the Rams second game outdoors so far all year. Bradford continues to make a case for ROY and looks to have a new weapon in Alexander who came from the practice squad and showed his speed, burning SD for a TD pass. Tampa does have run stop issues, ranking 31st against the run. They lead the league in interceptions, but rank 16th against the pass. Steven Jackson must be salivating at this match up with good reason.
BUCS: After playing a great defensive game against the Bengals, the Bucs as they often do came out looking equally as bad against the Saints. Part of it was Drew Brees understanding of the Bucs defense, facing them twice a year for quite some time, and part was blown assignments in the secondary. They still have only 1 sack in four of their games, and are abysmal at stopping the run. Their run game has been as bad, ranking 27th and the loss of Huggins should have the Bucs turning to Graham who has always been reliable. Mike Williams is a good play here as the Rams rank 20th against the pass. The wild card player here is Stroughter, whom the Rams will have trouble accounting for in the middle of the field.

This could be an interesting game, coming down to the 4th quarter. The key here is if the Bucs secondary can hold Rams receivers in check using man and cover 1, allowing extra bodies to guard against Steven Jackson. Since the Rams have yet to win a road contest and Alexander's talents will be no surprise.......BUCS 23-RAMS 21

FANTASY STARTS: RAMS: Jackson (17 for 110yds. 2 TD) Amendola (11 for 90 yds. 1 TD)
BUCS: M. Williams (6 for 90 yds 1 TD) Stroughter ( 5 for 80 yds.) Winslow (4 for 50 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: E. Graham....if his hammy is healthy this week, watch for Graham to get a good share of the carries if Williams comes out struggling again. The Bucs will probably allow Cadillac two series to see where he is and then make an adjustment.

SF 49ERS at CAROLINA PANTHERS: SAN FRAN: Finally, a win, though it was at home against Jason Campbell whom was horrible last week with a 10.7 passer rating. The win also came at the expense of Vernon Davis whom suffered a strained right knee and is day to day. Crabtree has settled in as I called once they made the change from Jimmy Raye at OC. Despite the win, don't be fooled into thinking San Fran found it's passing game. They were struggling early and were still sporadic passing wise. They face a Carolina team coming off a bye with extra prep time that ranks 5th against the pass. Where they will have great success is in the run where Carolina is 26th. Expect heavy doses of Frank Gore with average at best passing numbers.
PANTHERS: Matt Moore gets the call at QB. Carolina has opted to protect their franchise QB Clausen and not feed him to the wolves. However, like Gore, Williams and Stewart should have productive days against the SF 20th ranked run defense. Steve Smith did practice on Wednesday, so it may open things a bit for Carolina as San Francisco is 11th against the pass. He's always been a good healer, and should be good to go Sunday. San Francisco ranks 10th in total yards allowed despite their run D problems and is an indication of how they will give up plays but do have success holding opponents from long drives.

This game looks like toss up, you have two teams that love to run the ball. I am a big fan of teams coming off a bye week facing close match ups. SF does have more weapons, but if Davis is unable to go, this becomes a dead even race. Carolina has yet to put up more than 7 pts. at home and SF has maxed out at 14 pts. on the road. Carolina wins a close one that sees both teams score more than their norms.
CAR 24-SF 20.

FANTASY STARTS: SF: Gore (17 for 90 yds. 1 TD/ 4 for 40 yds.) Crabtree (5 for 70 yds 1 TD)
PANTHERS: Williams (13 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Stewart (9 for 50 yds. 1 TD) S. Smith (4 for 60yds. 1 TD)

ARIZONA CARDINALS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: ARIZONA: The Cards are coming off a bye where hopefully Beannie Wells had yet another week to get healthy and in shape to perform. Max Hall received a ton of credit for their win versus NO but his actual play was far from better than Anderson. Hall does have the luxury of facing the 30th ranked pass defense, but is in Seattle where better teams find it hard to win. Seattle is 2nd against the run so despite Wells return don't expect much.
SEAHAWKS: A huge win in Chicago may be just what this team needed to propel them to that next level of play they have been lacking. It should be easy for the Hawks to execute against Arizona as they are 26th and 29th against the Pass and Run respectively. Mike Williams continues his return from the depths of obscurity under his college coach. Marshawn Lynch had some very telling carries last week which seem to point in the direction of him being the goal line/red zone back.

While this will be a hard fought divisional game, the Seahawks always find ways to win at home and Sunday should be no different against a lesser opponent. The game should be closer than expected though since they will get Arizona's best effort after a bye week. Take the points with Arizona if you're a betting man. SEA 24-ARI 21.

FANTASY STARTS: ARI: Fitzgerald (7 for 100yds. 1 TD) Wells (16 for 60yds. 1 TD)
SEA: M. Williams (4 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Butler (3 for 50 yds. 1 TD) Forsett (12 for 60yds./3 for 20 yds.) Lynch ( 9 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: B. Patrick ARI....Patrick hat five receptions last week and as everyone knows a TE is a young QB's best friend. Expect Patrick to see about as many catches again with a score as the attention focus' on Fitz come red zone time.

OAKLAND RAIDERS at DENVER BRONCOS: RAIDERS: oh what a difference a week makes. Oakland pounded SD defensively two weeks ago and then comes up flat against the 49ers. Campbell may be out this week leaving Kyle Boller at QB who actually looked very good in pre-season. Believe it or not, he may be the best QB on this team in my eyes. He is more of a pocket presence and has been waiting for a shot at becoming a starter in the NFL again. I believe he actually helps the value of the Raiders WR's, but especially Z. Miller who will be his security blanket. McFadden will test the hammy out this week and looks close to a return. He and Bush should see plenty of yardage against the Bronco 25th ranked run defense.
BRONCOS: A heart breaker against the Jets last week will have the Broncos up and ready for a divisional match against the Raiders. The Broncos horrible run game actually broke the century mark in a collective effort that saw Tebow rush for his first score. If Moreno is going to have a good game this year it should come against the Raiders as they are 30th against the run. This will make it easier against the Raiders tough secondary and is the key to winning this game. Orton targeted Thomas heavily in the second half and seems to be his go to guy in the red zone.

The Broncos will get the Raiders best shot this week. However, the Broncos have three great WR's and that may be one more than the Raiders can handle despite their tough pass D. In the end, it should be the Denver run game of all things that makes the difference and forces the Raiders loss. DEN 28- OAK 21.

FANTASY STARTS: OAK: McFadden (12 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Bush (10 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Miller (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Murphy (4 for 50 yds.) DENVER: Moreno (15 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Gaffney ( 4 for 60 yds.) Lloyd (6 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Thomas (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Heyward Bey....With Murphy drawing Champ Bailey, Heyward Bey should be the one who has the most success out of the two Raider wide outs...if he shows up that is.

NE PATRIOTS at SD CHARGERS: PATRIOTS: New Englands new dink and dunk pass offense had success last week against Baltimore and the emergence of Woodhead is for real. Especially in this new offense, Woodhead should thrive. This new offense should be the perfect fit going against the Chargers 1st ranked pass Defense and they don't allow many big downfield plays. The Chargers are just as stout against the run 5th and given that NE has a weak run game we could see Brady air it out 40-50 times this week. All the NE receivers should bring in decent numbers due to sheer work load, but especially A. Hernandez.
CHARGERS: Another loss, this time at the Rams has a bitter taste in the franchise's mouth. They may have lost Floyd for this game and Gates looks like he will play through a toe injury. Regardless, SD does have enough talent to be effective against the Pats 29th pass defense. Expect to see a heavy work load for Mathews this week and for him to be effective. Mike Tolbert only saw three carries last week but did score. Due to the Pats weak rush defense 17th, I see Mathews getting the goal line touch as they need him to get going.

This will be one of the better games of the weekend. NE makes the East coast to West coast trip which is always a hard one. While they will be in the game, the Chargers have just too much to lose at this point and their backs are against the wall. Their defense is the difference maker.
SD 28- PATS 20.

FANTASY STARTS: NE: Brady (260 yds. 2 TD) Welker (7 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Woodhead (90 total yards) Branch (4 for 50 yds. 1 TD) SD: Rivers (300yds 2 TD) Mathews (16 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Gates (8 for 90 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Buster Davis...with Floyd out, Davis becomes the field stretcher and connects on one deep.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS at GREEN BAY PACKERS: VIKINGS: Finally out of their slump, the Vikes looked effective against Dallas and could be the spark they needed. Moss gets another week of practice with Favre which is needed. He still looks a bit uncomfortable out there but the more time that passes will develop their connection. The Packers rank 21st against the run so Peterson could have success her and will be a big part of the game to keep the ball out of Rogers hands.
PACKERS: Green Bay defense gets a boost with the return of Matthews this week and they will need it facing a Viking offense slowly coming into their own with Moss in the fold. Green Bay had a let down last week against Miami and the loss of Finley with Driver's injury slowing him down has had it's effect on this once explosive offense. The run game allowed the trade deadline to pass without getting help. Don't expect much either as the Vikes rank 11th against the run and are even better against the pass.

While Green Bay needs this game desperately, there seems to be a lack of confidence surrounding this team. The lack of any run offense has had big impact on the offense overall and the Vikings many weapons are going to cause issues for the Pack. I think the Pack actually lose another one at home. VIKES 24-GB 21.

FANTASY STARTS: VIKINGS: Moss ( 5 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Harvin ( 4 for 50 yds/ 2 rush for 25 yds.) Peterson (16 for 90 yds. 1 TD) PACK: Rogers (250 yds. 2 TD) Jennings (7 for 90 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: D. Lee...after being held in check last week the Pack need that TE position to be a difference maker. Lee should become more involved and score as the Viking defense clamps down against the run in the red zone.