Showing posts with label Cowboys. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cowboys. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

WEEK 12 GAME/FANTASY PREVIEW

NE PATRIOTS @ DET LIONS: NE: Two weeks straight the Pats have rolled through two playoff caliber teams, dinking and dunking them to death. This may not be the Pats we expect but they are getting things done and executing. Thanksgiving will give them a lot to be thankful for as they face Detroit's 27th ranked rush defense. Detroit is decent vs the pass at 16 but Indianapolis was far better vs the pass and we saw how the Brady to Welker connection dismantled them. Green-Ellis will have a great day here and could see two scores given the ease the Pats will have moving the ball. Hernandez is back also and should see a score and find plenty of room.
DET: Jhavid Best's turf toe is getting worse and has him as a non factor since week four when he aggravated it. Both he and Tony Scheffler whom will be nursing sore ribs, will be iffy plays on a very short week. Not good news against a Patriot run defense that has jumped to 17th with solid play the last few weeks. As always the Lions will be throwing often and though the Pats rank 31st vs the pass, they have been very opportunistic of late, picking off two of the better QB's in Roethlisberger and Manning on crucial drives. The Scheffler injury is good news for Pettigrew owners as he should see expanded work given the Best issues and the fact we could see Hill throw 40+ times.

The Pats will all but ignore the run game and drop extra guys back against the Detroit 6th pass offense. Pats easily win, NE 28-DET 20.

FANTASY STARTS: NE: Brady (280 yds. 3 TD) Green-Ellis (12 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Hernandez (3 for 45 yds. 1 TD) Welker ( 6 for 75 yds. 1 TD) Woodhead (80 total yards) Branch (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
DET: Pettigrew (5 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Johnson (6 for 85 yds. 1 TD) Burleson (4 for 50 yds.)
SLEEPER: Shaun Hill DET....He should be forced to throw from start to finish and while the Pats are bound to pick him off a few times, his big work load will produce yardage.
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NO SAINTS @ DAL COWBOYS: SAINTS: Had this game been scheduled two weeks ago we would look at the Dallas defense and expect a huge day, but Garrett has this 20th ranked pass defense and 22nd pass D playing inspired ball. The Saints really don't have many options even if Bush is back to 100% and will use their 2nd ranked pass offense often as usual. Colston seems to be hitting his stride the last few weeks and is emerging as Brees most trusted target. Given the Dallas strength at home and a whole new attitude, don't be surprised if Brees does struggle a bit and this game is closer than expectations.
 DAL: The Cowboys 4th ranked pass offense will face a stiffer challenge against the Saints 2nd ranked pass defense. The Saints can be run on effectively though so look for Felix Jones to be involved heavily as long as his hip issue isn't a problem. While the Saints do have a stout pass defense, they have yet to face a team with this many weapons on offense and will focus on taking Bryant out of the game if they can. Look for Roy Williams and Jones to see a lot of work because of coverages in the pass game. Dallas is playing their hearts out and this is a statement game at home. They will have plenty of mismatches as will the Saints so this one could be a high scoring shoot out.

 Dallas gets the upset, playing to the potential everyone expected of them this year. DAL 31-NO 28. 

FANTASY STARTS: NO: Brees (310 yds. 3 TD) Colston (6 for 95 yds. 1 TD) Moore (7 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Meachem (3 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Bush (70 total yards 1 TD) DAL: Jones (13 for 60 yds. 1 TD/ 4 for 40 yds.) Austin (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Bryant (4 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Williams (4 for 80 yds. 1 TD) 
SLEEPER: Witten DAL: while he has seen limited action recently, the Saints defense will be busy keeping all three wide outs in check leaving Witten with room. 

CIN BENGALS @ NY JETS: CIN: It can't get any worse for the Bengals, and you know it's bad when ego maniac T.O. says they all stink including him. Now they face the Jets whom are finding ways to beat everybody. While the Jets can be passed on, Cedric Benson will be up against the 5th ranked rush defense which is as fast as any he has seen. Benson only excels against weaker defenses and should have a quiet day. Palmer and his accuracy issues will face the 18th ranked pass defense, but the right side will all but be shut down by Revis. T.O. is the recipient of a trip to Revis island so we could see a lot of three wide sets that move him away from Revis. Ochocinco should see the most work of the two.
 NY JETS: Sanchez and the Jets seem to have a knack for pulling games out in the end and he should see plenty of time in the pocket since the Bengals have only 10 sacks on the year which is worst in the NFL. Odom does return for the Bengals, but it should mean very little against a secondary that allowed 3 TD passes to S. Johnson last week. LT and Greene have still been pretty quiet as of late but face the Bengals 23rd rush defense. 

The Jets simply have too many weapons for the Bengals to contain and Marvin Lewis is eyeing a similar fate as Chilly and Phillips. Jets hit the Bengals while they are down. NYJ 27-CIN 20. 

FANTASY STARTS: CIN: Ochocinco (5 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Shipley (6 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Owens (4 for 50 yds.) NYJ: Holmes (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) LT ( 15 for 80 yds 1 TD/ 4 for 50 yds) Edwards ( 3 for 50 yds. 1 TD) Keller (4 for 45 yds. 1 TD) 
SLEEPER: Greene NYJ....While he is seeing an increased work load, this one smells like it could be over by the third Q, leaving Greene to wear the Bengals down late. He could be in line for a TD here. 

GB PACKERS @ ATL FALCONS: GB: Green Bay has been the tip of the ice berg for two coaches jobs in successive weeks and now travel to Atlanta in what will be Atlanta's toughest test since they met the Steelers. Donald Driver looked good vs the Vikes and should be closer to the norm this week. Even better has been the play of James Jones whom now adds a third threat for Rogers and should be the big wild card in this game. The Falcons are 23rd vs the pass and if there is one thing the Pack can do well is pass. They are 10th in pass offense and should come out gunning since Jackson will see little room vs the Falcons 6th rush defense. Atlanta is +10 in turnover margin which explains a big part of their success. However, Rogers is good enough and accurate enough to avoid mistakes. 
ATL: The Falcons are one of the most offensively balanced teams, ranking 13 in passing and 7th in rushing. Where they will find most success is in the run game if Turner can get it going and sneak away from Matthews who has been in beast mode for the Packers. While the Pack are ranked 15th in passing D, Tremon Williams is one of the most under rated CB's and is just as solid a player as Woodson. Both White and Jenkins face some of the best coverage they have all year and it will be on Turner to force the Packers to bring another body up and give the WR's room. Look for the Falcons to get Turner involved very early and often. This will be one of the better games this weekend and will wind up a win for the Packers. Nobody has been able to contain Matthews and the Falcons have yet to face as balanced a defense this year.

 Rogers should be able to pick apart this secondary, forcing the Falcons to abandon the run game. GB 28-ATL 20. 

STARTS: GB: Rogers (300 yds. 3 TD) Jennings ( 6 for 75 yds. 1 TD) Jones (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Driver ( 6 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Jackson (11 for 40 yds. 1 TD) ATL: Ryan (250 yds. 1 TD) White (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Jenkins (3 for 45 yds.) Turner (13 for 65 yds. 1 TD/ 4 for 45 yds.) 
SLEEPER: Gonzales ATL....He will be a boom or bust candidate this week given he should be asked to stay in more and help block Matthews. However, the Packers aggressive defense style could also allow him to slip out and see a field of green and a sneaky score. 

PIT STEELERS @ BUFF BILLS: PIT: The Steelers man handled the Raiders last week and now face an offense even weaker. On the defensive side, the Bills do have a good secondary ranked 9th and good at not allowing the long ball. But the Bills are 32nd vs the run and face the Steeler 11th rush offense behind Mendenhall. He should have an effective day here, but like most Bills opponents, the effectiveness of the run game will open lanes for Wallace and Ward to find the end zone when close.
 BUFF: The Bills have put two in a row together but let's face it, it was against two teams worse than they are. The Bills do have the talent to make this one interesting and we can expect another good fantasy day for Fitzpatrick since he will no doubt be throwing from start to finish. The Steelers own the top Rush defense in the NFL and have shut down better backs that Jackson. The Steelers are 25th vs the pass, so look for this to be the focus, making Jackson a possible bench candidate if you have options. The Steelers are tied for 2nd in sacks, so while they do allow the yardage, they can make it a long day if able to get penetration against a Bills offensive line that is weak. 

While Fitz and Johnson will put up points, it will be tempered by how well the line blocks for him. Unless the Steelers under estimate the Bills, this one goes as expected. PIT 24- BUF 17.

 FANTASY STARTS: PIT: Mendenhall (16 for 110 yds. 1 TD/ 2 for 20 yds.) Wallace (4 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Ward (6 for 70 yds. 1 TD) BUF: Fitzpatrick (280 yds. 2 TD) Johnson ( 6 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Evans ( 4 for 70 yds. 1 TD) 
SLEEPER: Miller PIT...He has been relegated to a fourth option on offense, but does pose some value here since the Bills Whitner can take away Ward from those short routes he runs making Miller the second option in the pass game.

 CAR PANTHERS @ CLE BROWNS: CAR: Everyone knows the Panthers are this years whipping boy and exactly what will happen at QB this week is any ones guess. Jonathan Stewarts status is still up in the air and with Goodson's second solid performance, look for him to be the offense against the Browns 21st rush defense. Cleveland is 22nd vs the pass, so there is a chance Steve Smith flirts with a score.
 CLE: While Carolina does own the 7th ranked pass defense, it may not be as much a factor since Delhomme looks to get the start vs his former team while McCoy nurses an ankle sprain. Nobody is sure to know the defense like Delhomme and Hillis should walk over the Carolina 24th run defense making Delhomme that much more effective even with his limited options.

 There really isn't much to debate here, it's a good team against the league worst. CLE 20- CAR 14. 

FANTASY STARTS: CAR: Goodson (17 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Smith ( 4 for 60 yds. 1 TD) CLE: Hillis (14 for 110 yds. 2 TD) Watson (5 for 80 yds.) 
SLEEPER: Stuckey CLE.....Delhomme is far from a gun slinger and if Carolina is effective at denying Watson, Stuckey becomes the primary target in the minimalist pass game.

 JACK JAGUARS @ NY GIANTS: JAC: Not that he was producing all that much, but Simms-Walker will be out a few weeks, and that boosts Osgood's value big time. Osgood immediately was effective last week and now is a sure fire guy Gerard will look to is Thomas is covered. This week though they face a stingy Giants secondary that ranks 4th. The G men are also 4th vs the run but have had issues against the top tier backs. The Giants are looking to return to their winning ways and Coughlin is a good bet to sell out and ensure MJD doesn't beat them. It will be on Gerrard to make it happen but does struggle on the road at times. 
NYG: The Giants also lost a receiver last week though theirs more costly. Hakeem Nicks is slated to miss three weeks which not only puts the Giants in a bind but your fantasy team as well. Three weeks plus one week for him to get back into the flow means he probably won't be reliable until the last week of the fantasy playoffs. What could have been a huge week vs the Jags 28th pass defense becomes a bit more even keeled. Regardless of the Bradshaw fumbles, he is their best runner and will be needed here since the Giants are running out of play makers. Jacksonville ranks 19th vs the run so look for a good Jacobs-Bradshaw split that tries to wear down the Jags. Anyone remember pre season stud Victor Cruz? Maybe this is where he gets his shot since the Giants are down to Manningham alone. 

Both teams are on equal footing but defense wins games, and the Jags are a one trick pony. The Giants contain MJD and win a low scorer. NYG 20- JAC 13.

 FANTASY STARTS: JAC: MJD (14 for 65 1 TD/4 for 25 yds) NYG: Manningham (6 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Bradshaw (11 for 65 yds.) Jacobs (13 for 70 yds. 1 TD) 
SLEEPER: V. Cruz NYG.....This guy was sensational in the preseason and did well vs starters as well, not just second teamers. He has speed to burn and this is a favorable match up for Coughlin to break him in. 


MIN VIKINGS @ WASH REDSKINS: MIN: Much like Phillips in Dallas, the players lost all respect for Childress a long time ago, finally prompting Wilf to fire him. Now comes Leslie Frazier and echos of Dallas begin to play. The team respects Frasier and what he's built with this defense. Expect him to allow Favre some room and to open things up a bit. Most likely he will try and pound Peterson of course, but something tells me he let's Favre loose. While not necessarily a good thing, it may make the Vikings a bit more unpredictable. This week they face one of the worst secondaries in Washington, ranked 29th. The Skins are equally as bad vs the rush, ranking 28th. All your Vikings make good plays this week and now with Rice getting a game under his belt he should get a score. 
WASH: The Skins stepped up on the road vs the Titans but will now face a tougher defense ranked 13th vs the pass and 7th vs the rush. Portis is officially out, leaving Torain and Williams as the options. Mcnabb should have some success through the air and it will be another big passing work load for him since the Washington run game ranks 22nd. Armstrong should be the fantasy guy here since the Vikings are strong defending other top wide outs not named Jennings.

 The Vikings do their best Dallas impression and let loose on a sporadic Redskin team. MIN 28-WAS 20. 

FANTASY STARTS: MIN: All you players. Peterson has the highest scoring day of the bunch though. WAS: Williams (12 for 55 yds. 1 TD/4 for 40 yds.) Moss (4 for 60 yds.) Armstrong (5 for 85 yds. 1 TD) SLEEPER: Cooley WAS....He will be depended on heavily with Allen pressuring Mcnabb all day. 

TENN TITANS @ HOU TEXANS: TEN: Vince Young goes to the IR, shutting him down for the year in what may have been his final game as a Titan. Collins comes in and has the best possible opponent vs the Texans 32nd pass defense. This of all games should be Moss' day to score and Bo Scaife should also get fantasy love as well. The Texans are middle of the pack vs the run, but it's CJ and middle of the pack means a two score 100 yard day for him. All your Titans are starter worthy this week, pure and simple.
 HOU: Schaub seemed to suffer no set back on his knee this week and should post solid numbers vs the Titan 27th ranked secondary. The Titans are far better vs the run at 11th, but Foster has been a beast at home and is tough no matter who the opponent. The Titans do have a good front four and have applied solid pressure on QB's logging 30 sacks. No big deal for Schaub though since all he will need to do is lob the ball up to Andre Johnson who should return to his normal big days.

 This one goes to whoever can score that one last TD vs suspect secondaries. Since Collins is not as much of a deep threat thrower as Schaub, Texans get it. HOU 31-TEN 28.

 FANTASY STARTS: All your players in this game for either team. It should be a high scoring affair, spreading the double digit goodness. 
SLEEPER: Derik Ward HOU and Javon Ringer TEN....Both guys could see expanded time in relief of their lead backs whom will have heavy work loads. Ward has already scored in similar type games and while Ringer doesn't get a lot of touches, he makes the most of them here while Houston is on their heels. 

MIA DOLPHINS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS: MIA: After laying an egg last Thursday, the Dolphins get a chance to regroup and face an Oakland team that took a beating of their own in Pittsburgh. Oakland is 25th vs the run and we could see good days for both Brown and Williams. Sporano will likely go run heavy regardless since Marshall will be a questionable start and Thigpen was humbled last week. Look for Brown to see more action in the pass game as well with a return to a heavier use of the wildcat.
 OAK: Asumogha is believed to have a shot at playing this week but not much has been confirmed as of yet. Campbell is so far likely to get the start but regardless who is back there, the Miami 6th pass defense will be an issue. Like Miami, the Raiders should elect to go run heavy vs Miami's 20th rush defense. Ball control with middle safe route passing will be keys for both teams. 

Both teams are similar with their styles of play but Oakland has the more formidable ground game and has proven it. OAK-20-MIA 17.

 FANTASY STARTS: MIA: Brown (13 for 70 yds 1 TD/ 5 for 45 yds) Williams (11 for 55 yds.) Bess (5 for 60 yds.) Fasano (4 for 45 yds) Hartline (6 for 50 yds. 1 TD) OAK: McFadden (16 for 95 yds. 1 TD/3 for 40 yds.) Miller (4 for 55 yds. 1 TD) 
SLEEPER: J. Ford OAK....He was kept quiet vs the Steelers, but everybody was. Look for him to bounce back and have the better match up as Murphy deals with Vontae Davis. 

KC CHIEFS @ SEA SEAHAWKS: KC: Thomas Jones got back into the flow of things vs Arizona and Charles was also effective in limited duty since Jones had the hot hand. Seattle is 14th vs the run, but they will most likely be without their top CB Truffant (concussion) which will allow more options in the pass game. KC's weak secondary (24th) also gets a breather since it looks like Mike Williams will be out after hearing a pop in the bottom of his foot last week. Carrol isn't saying much, but it sounds serious so look for KC to be effective in the pass and use the ground game to keep a lead in the second half. Both backs will be solid plays once again. 
SEA: No Mike Williams will mean an expanded role for Butler and Carlon since Hasselbeck will be the key to scoring against the KC 24th pass defense. Lynch will have a tougher time vs the 12th rush defense of the Chiefs, leaving Forsett as the guy you want here because of his catch skills. Look for a heavy pass attack involving getting Forsett into space.

 Seattle lost it's top two guys at skill positions on both sides of the ball and KC gets the win in a hostile environment. KC 24-SEA 17.

 FANTASY STARTS: KC: Jones (15 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Charles (11 for 65 yds. 1 TD/ 3 for 40 yds.) Bowe ( 4 for 60 yds. 1 TD) SEA: Butler (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Forsett (9 for 40 yds./6 for 55 yds. 1 TD) SLEEPER: Carlson SEA....Carlson is about the only dependable option for Hasselbeck and could see a big day if the Hawks get down fast.

 PHI EAGLES @ CHI BEARS: PHI: Vick has now gone 220 passes without a pick which would have been unimaginable if we were not seeing it for ourselves. Both he and McCoy have also propelled the Eagles run game to 3rd in the NFL but now face a hot Bears team ranked 2nd vs the run and 12th vs the pass. Reid will look to test the secondary early and get McCoy some running room. 
CHI: Much like themselves, the Eagles are stout vs the run (8th) and 17th vs the pass. The Eagles will be without Assante Samuel, who helped this pass defense become respectable when he returned after missing time. Now without him, the Eagles face the threat of playing catch up for the first time since Vick has returned. Look for Martz to also test the secondary, but more out of need than want. Forte has been weak on the ground but has picked it up of late. Even with the run game getting a footing, it will be tough to find room here. The Bears defense seems to be hitting it's peak and they are as tough as can be at home.

 The Eagles have 19 picks on the year but missing Samuel will hurt, especially vs a pass happy Martz. Chicago wins a tough defensive game. CHI 20-PHI 17. 

FANTASY STARTS: PHI: Vick (260 yds. 2 TD/ 3 for 50 yds.) Jackson ( 4 for 89 yds. 1 TD) Maclin ( 5 for 70 yds.) McCoy (12 for 40 yds./ 5 for 55 yds.) CHI: Forte (10 for 40 yds./ 7 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Knox (5 for 65 yds. 1 TD) 
SLEEPER: Hester CHI...With focus placed on Knox and Forte, Olsen and Hester will be the ones with favorable match ups and opportunity to win those battles. Hester's special teams ability of course adds value, but he has been evolving the last few weeks and can get hot.

 STL RAMS @ DEN BRONCOS: RAMS: The defense let one go vs Atlanta and now the Rams who have road issues travel cross country to face a Denver team with steam to blow off after a poor Monday night showing. The Broncos are 26th vs the run and good vs the pass despite what we saw Monday so look for a heavy dose of Jackson. This could be one of those times where SJax has a career day in both rushing and receiving. Sproles and Tolbert each had great success in their roles, and SJax is both of them rolled into one. The Rams are 26th in pass offense and outside of Gibson have no decent deep option. Look for a ton of SJax with Amendola in short yardage situations. 
DEN: The Broncos run game fizzled once again after starting strong vs San Diego and the pass game wasn't much better. The Broncos were pressured often and Orton will see a similar type of defensive plan in the Rams. This will be another bad week for Moreno, as the Rams are 9th vs the run. The good new is that the Rams 21st ranked pass defense is just what Orton and company need after being shit down on Monday. We should see a return to the air show in this one and expect Orton to hit 300 here. 

While the Rams will make a good go at it early, the Broncos excel at the deep ball and it is too much for the Rams. DEN 28-STL 17. 

FANTASY STARTS: STL: Jackson (16 for 90 yds. 1 TD/6 for 55 yds. 1 TD) 
DEN: Orton (310 yds. 3 TD) Lloyd ( 7 for 95 yds. 1 TD) Gaffney ( 4 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Royal ( 6 for 70 yds. 1 TD) 
SLEEPER: Gibson STL....while not much is to be expected of him, the Broncos know if the Rams get to the red zone Bradford looks to Amendola and Bailey has the ability to keep him blanketed leaving Gibson with a possible short yard score.

TB BUCCANEERS @ BAL RAVENS: TB: Nobody would have guessed the Bucs would be in the divisional race, much less the NFC playoff race, but at 7-3 here we are. After shutting out the 49ers on the road, the Bucs secondary has risen to 3rd in the NFL and have 15 interceptions. Offensively, the run game which was stagnant and in the bottom half behind Williams has risen to 12th behind Legarette Blount. Williams has become the 3rd down/4th Quarter guys and has found success allowing the pass game to open up because of the run effectiveness. Rookie Mike Williams is at the top of his class amongst receivers, battling Dez Bryant for a shot at ROY. The Bucs have lost their previous 2 matches against playoff teams in Pittsburgh and New Orleans, but in each one Cadillac was the lead back and the Bucs had no run game to speak of. Now they bring a much more effective and balanced offense to Baltimore to face their 10th rated rush defense and 11th pass defense. This will be the best test yet for this young team to see how it will match with some savvy veterans. The Bucs will of course focus on the run to open the pass, and are getting some players back just in time. Sammy Stroughter and C Jeff Faine both returned the last two weeks and will be needed to step up here. Look for the Bucs to possibly get creative, using Josh Johnson in the wildcat formation the Bucs have been testing out the last few weeks. Where they will win is in the pass game where other teams like Buffalo have had success. 
BALT: The Ravens have been playing like the Super Bowl contenders we expected and bring a very balanced attack against the Bucs 3rd ranked pass defense but have a great match up against the Bucs 30th rush defense. The Bucs schemed well last week and held Frank Gore to just 60 total yards which is a feat few teams have been able to do. This week should see a similar scheme as they try to limit Ray Rice's abilities. The Ravens will face one of the stiffer secondaries since the Jets, so will look to test the ground game immediately with a healthy dose of Rice. Houshmenzadeh broke out last week vs the tough Carolina secondary and should play the wild card here as well. The Ravens have multiple weapons on offense and Housh with Heap are the two factors that challenge any secondaries depth. 

Baltimore has the home crowd and how hard this game is for them will depend on what Bucs rush defense shows up. The one from last week or the one which earned that 30th rush defense ranking. The home team has the edge until we see other wise. BAL 23-TB 20.

FANTASY STARTS: TB: Blount (14 for 60 yds. 1 TD) M. Williams (4 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
BAL: Rice (13 for 70 yds. 1 TD/ 4 for 45 yds) Boldin (4 for 65 yds. 1 TD) 
SLEEPER: Todd Heap BALT....The Bucs athletic LB core will be focused on Ray Rice, leaving some mismatches for Heap to take advantage of. 

SD CHARGERS @ IND COLTS: SD: The Chargers November madness hopes to continue this week against a Colts secondary ranked 10th. Rivers showed he doesn't need to throw for 300 yards to win, instead dumping off to his receivers who amassed a ton of YAC. The Chargers may be without Patrick Crayton on this short week, but are expecting Vincent Jackson to return opposite Malcom Floyd. Rivers has already proven he can do it regardless who he's throwing to, and the return of Floyd and Jackson is going to test the Colts ranking. The man to watch however will be Mike Tolbert whom has over shadowed rookie Ryan Mathews with his hard nosed running and 8 TD's in 10 games. Tolbert is the one you can depend on and will carry great value here since the Colts have the 31st ranked rush defense. As I said, it doesn't matter who the opponent is, so look for SD to keep doing it's thing with Rivers and using the play action for some deep connections and catch the Colts sleeping. Gates is hoping to return this week and only further complicates things for the Colts.
IND: Peyton came up just short last week and is a good bet to bounce back this week. It won't be easy though vs the SD top pass defense which just flustered Kyle Orton and Denver's 5th ranked pass offense. Manning should see some pressure most the game and will be without Austin Collie who runs those under routes Manning relies on when things get dicey. He will instead continue to rely on Jacob Tamme who has saved Manning's hide on numerous drives and is the only sure handed receiver past Reggie Wayne. It should be Donald Brown again this week, and Brown, who is already not the greatest play, faces the SD 3rd ranked run defense. Manning will be forced to throw often, and like Rivers, it really doesn't matter who the opponent is, Manning will find the holes in a defense. Garcon will need to have another solid game if the Colts hope to pull this one out against another playoff caliber team for the second straight week.

This will be a great game of strategy and QB play to watch, but the only factor which tilts the scales is Tolbert vs the Colts rush defense. Tolbert should be able to find running lanes and scores the difference maker. SD 31-IND 28.

FANTASY STARTS: SD: Rivers (280 yds. 3 TD) Floyd (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Jackson (6 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Gates (8 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Tolbert (13 for 80 yds. 1 TD)
IND: Wayne ( 5 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Tamme (7 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Garcon ( 3 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Manning (260 yds. 3 TD) Brown (14 for 50 yds./ 3 for 25 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: D. Sproles SD....Sproles pass catch/run abilities always keeps the defenses guessing and is a great decoy for Rivers. Look for Sproles and his speed on turf to be a difference maker and keep the Colts honest from selling out. 

Sunday, November 7, 2010

SUNDAY IN REVIEW

BUCCANEERS: One yard....The Bucs were one yard away from winning this game on the road, but Legarrette Blount missed the hole and chose a lane which led him into a chop tackle just short on 4th and 1. This team is still in the thick of things for the NFC South and showed poise on the road against the divisional leaders. Raheem Morris continues to allow Cadillac Williams the starters carries for the first two drives of every game and those are very significant tone setting carries which are being lost to Cadillac's ineffectiveness. Blount should be the lead back with Caddy as the 3rd down guy from here on out. The rush defense was better this week, but still allowed Turner 100 yards. Mike Williams is the guy you want most on this team, scoring once again and breaking a 52 yard TD on a ten yard pass. Blount has more favorable match ups coming and was simply a victim of a good rush defense. Aurellious Benn has emerged as the Bucs true #2 WR and is worth picking up off waivers in a keeper league while you can.

FALCONS: The Falcons defense held when it needed it most and escaped by a yard to cement themselves atop the NFC South. Roddy White went down with a knee injury in the first half but returned. This could be worth watching as he was largely ineffective and Ryan looked more to Gonzales and Jenkins. Matt Ryan seems to have found great comfort ability in the pocket but will be hindered if he loses White. His value is clearly tied to White's health and he should finish the second half of the year as a top ten QB if White is healthy.

DOLPHINS: Chad Henne continues the Jeykle and Hyde act as he tossed three picks and no TD's. Given it was against one of the NFL top defenses, but he is not a guy to trust as your starter. Brown had another good game, scoring with 59 yards rushing. He is trustworthy as a #2 RB but I would rather see him in a flex spot if you have better options. Brandon Marshall is a must start since you probably drafted him high but really is only safe as a WR 3 with amazing upside depending on Henne's day. The Dolphins are better plays at home stat wise but use caution on any other guys except Brown and Marshall.

RAVENS: The Ravens came out firing after the bye week. Ray Rice found his usual form rushing for 83 yards and receiving for 97 yards though he did not score. Derik Mason and Willis Mcgahee caught the only two TD passes. Boldin was kept in obscurity catching only 2 balls for 28 yards. The Ravens are one of the few teams that have lived up to the hype and have yet to really let down. Boldin and Rice are the studs, but I think Flacco and Mason are being very undervalued. Both guys are putting up solid numbers for their position and you should be able to get them for lower value than you would expect. If you have Mcgahee, trade him to upgrade or get depth at another position you need while his value is high this week. He is too sporadic to trust overall.

BEARS: While the Bears had a bye week to prepare for this game, they came out a bit flat, most likely due to the time off. It really doesn't matter since they get the win though. Cutler was only at about 55% but more importantly he didn't throw an interception. He seemed to manage his throws well and pick his spots. Forte had another ho-hum game on the ground getting 49 on 14 carries and not being a factor in the pass game. After a fast start, Forte has slowed a bit giving fantasy owners an average of 8 PPG. He still has great potential but faces the Vikings twice, the Jets, Philadelphia, and Miami on the road. Receiving wise, Earl Bennett had the catch this week but Knox is the only true threat overall. None of them are better than WR #3. Forte though should be considered a RB #2 due to schedule the rest of the way. He does have a good match vs Detroit but it gets tougher overall.

BILLS: Steve Johnson overcame a slow start to finish with 11 catches and 145 yards. He clearly is Fitzpatrick's favorite target and has been one of the safest WR plays this year. Fitzpatrick has also been a good start lately given his need to throw so much coming from behind every game. The Bills run game has come up short from being the lead attack expected, but were facing a tough run defense. They do have some favorable matches against Cleveland, Miami, and New England whom currently do not have the greatest rush defenses. However, all three teams seem to be improving vs the run and come week 14 could be tough opponents. Better to find options if you are in contention.

SAINTS: What looked to be a close one during the first quarter turned into an easy scrimmage game as the Saint defense knocked out both Matt Moore and Jonathan Stewart then make Clausen look just bad. The Saints got a win they needed as the NFC South is very up for grabs and should be until the final weeks. Lance Moore and Marques Colston are the only two to trust at WR as Meachem and Henderson continue to have bad statistical seasons. Both are drop worthy or trade bait if you can find any takers. While Betts got the start and the carries, it was Julius Jones who doubled his rushing total on half the carries with 68 yds. on 6 carries. The good news is that Bush should be back after the bye week and maybe Pierre Thomas will be close to returning. Thomas was almost traded to the Patriots this year and looks to have worn out his welcome with Sean Payton. Ivory and Bush are the best two options moving forward.

PANTHERS: I had the Panthers down as my upset of the week, but after two drives those thoughts were shattered by Matt Moore going down and then adding Jonathan Stewart to the injury list. After that it was an after thought. The question became how bad would the Panthers lose. No receiver came away with more than 22 yards and no RB with more than 41 yards. As Steve Smith said...it was pathetic. While Clausen looks in line to get the next start, Tony Pike came in an put up the same yardage on fewer throws and looked better overall. Steve Smith is officially no better than a flex play until he can develop continuity with a QB. Coach Fox needs to make a statement and roll with one guy for the rest of the year for the team's sake and start developing for next year. No Panther is trustworthy and Deangelo Williams will be hampered when he returns by a passing attack which scares nobody.

PATRIOTS: While I pegged Hernandez for a score as my sleeper, it was about all I had right in this game. Brady couldn't find a rhythm, the law firm went bankrupt, and Danny Woodhead led all players with 92 total yards. The Patriots were caught by a Browns defense which has gone under rated most the year. Coming off the bye allowed them extra time to scheme against the Pats short shot game and catch them off guard with some sneaky play calls. The Patriots simply had an off day but will look to get back on track next week. Hernandez is a solid TE #1 and Woodhead has clearly overtook Welker as that all purpose guy who racks up the yards. Brady however has fallen in value after losing Moss and is not the dependable monster you are used to expecting. If you can get name value for Welker do it. Green Ellis may have fallen short this week but has some good games coming up and is worth being patient with. Try and get him if you are weak at RB #2 or need a good flex play.

BROWNS: The Browns overwhelmed the Pats in a game that may have saved Mangini his job yet again. He wins the ones the shouldn't and loses everything else giving the perception he has potential. It was the same with the Jets until Woody realized this trend. The Browns have the talent and seem to be getting better, but will have to wait until next year before becoming serious contenders. McCoy is clearly the choice at QB so he can develop into the potential he is showing. Peyton Hillis is a monster, running for 184 and 2 scores as well as catching 3 for 36 yards. Massaquoi showed some relevance again and may have value moving forward as a reserve should one of your studs go down.

JETS: Mark Sanchez started off a bit rusty but gained composure and took control of the pocket as time went on, eventually driving the Jet s to the Detroit 20 with two minutes left for the game winning field goal. The bigger concern here is what is going on with the Jets run game? This was a game primed for the Jets backs to have success yet neither reached more than 55 yards on the ground. This is the second game where the run game has come short of expectations and while you are not going to move LT anywhere, it may cause you to lower expectations just a bit. I have been a firm believer that as the season wares on, LT will slow a bit and we will see Greene a bit more. Greene was featured more towards the end of this game and this could be a sign of things to come. Santonio and Braylon each continue to give fantasy numbers worthy of #2 and 3 guys and should be trusted moving ahead. Given the schedule coming up, Sanchez may also be a good play for the next three weeks if your starter has a bye or some really bad match ups.

LIONS: At this point either Stafford has a bum shoulder and needs to sit out the rest of the year or the Detroit medical staff is the worst. Either way, Stafford will only be able to afford so much scar tissue before it limits his career. Bench him since the season is mostly shot at this point and let him fully heal and prepare for the long term. He has amazing potential but it's worth nothing if he misses 5 games a year. I called Jhavid Best as a sleeper and he delivered with 88 yards. The Lions as a whole are playing good football, but the defense can't close in the 4th. There is much to be hopeful about but fantasy wise Calvin Johnson and Jhavid should be the only two guys you put in as starters. Megatron is the obvious start week in and out but he will fall to WR #2 as long as Stafford misses time. As long as Best is healthy he will continue to rack up yardage and you can depend on about 70 YPG. While it may not be spectacular, it should be consistent production and more than you can rely on compared to higher picks like Ryan Mathews, Shonn Greene, or Deangelo Williams.

CHARGERS: Phillip Rivers is undoubtedly the best QB in football right now. While it was the worse secondary in the NFL, Rives threw 4 TD's without any of his star receivers, a stagnant run game, and came back from a 23-14 deficit to win. It will only get better for Rivers after the bye week when Vincent Jackson returns, Malcom Floyd should return as well as Naanee and Gates. Rivers also faces a favorable schedule after the bye making him all the more valuable. Ryan Mathews injured his ankle once again which only strengthens the case for Mike Tolbert being on your team. He has the most TD's out of the RB core and is a more durable back. Sit on your Chargers during the bye as it should only get better.

TEXANS: Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson were shut down by the top rated pass defense, making it the Arian Foster show. Foster ran for 127 yards and led all receivers with 70 yards. Foster is by far the best back in the NFL but the work load is worrisome. Every touch means another hit and in today's NFL that can be a slippery slope to tread. It's not like you would dream of trading the guy away, but if you own Foster you are most likely in playoff contention and should have some reserves just in case. He runs smart and does know how to avoid the big hits, but it should be a valid strategy to have depth. Owen Daniels missed the game and if you own him it is time to seek other options.

CARDINALS: The Cards had this game until the last five minutes but it never really felt like they were winning. It was more a case of the Vikings offense beating itself, and it proved to be true as Favre led two scoring drives in five minutes to tie and eventually win. Fitztgerald did get his on 107 yards receiving but failed to reach the end zone. I liked Hightower more than Wells though neither was appealing and Hightower finished with a team leading 39 rush yards. Though Wells is the starter, Hightower brings a better ball control game and is more physical right now. Regardless, you won't feel comfortable using either of these two and need better options. Fitzgerald is a high end #2 as I've been saying and should be expected to give you around 10 PPG. That said, if the QB carousel can stop, Fitzgerald only faces one solid pass defense for the rest of the year including the playoffs.

VIKINGS: Now the work is Ziggy Wilf is still considering if he should release Childress. It's the only true option and needs to be done now while the team is still in contention. The fans and players hate the guy and think he is clueless. He questioned Percy Harvin's work ethic on Friday and Sunday he posted 126 receiving yards. Berrian was my sleeper and he came away with 89 yards. I had said not to panic on Harvin just yet and it will only get better. Sidney Rice warmed up before this game and could return next week. That will help this team and help Harvin find the end zone. Schiancoe's value will still be high regardless of Rice's return since it looks like Childress has figured out that him being involved means a more effective team. Pick up Rice from waivers now if he is available. The Vikes only have two tough pass defenses through the fantasy playoffs left.

GIANTS: Bradshaw and Jacobs flip flopped their roles this week, with Jacobs getting the yardage and Bradshaw getting the scores. The Giants came out rested and overwhelmed Whitehurst. Eli went to his favorite target Nicks often who finished with 126 yards and a score. Manningham and Smith had decent days, with Smith getting the TD but neither is a safe play every week because you really don't know which one will come out with the score. Jacobs is a trustworthy start depending on the match up and Bradshaw is a must start weekly. Eli and his receivers have a good schedule until the fantasy playoffs where he faces Min, Phi, and GB. All three will be challenges so if you have a solid back up or can trade for a QB/need player I would go for it. Sounds crazy, but if you are looking at getting in the playoffs with Eli as your guy it could be tough to expect production three weeks straight from him.

SEAHAWKS: So much for the Whitehurst hoopla. The Seahawks were not the healthiest group, but right now Hasselbeck gives them the best chance of winning as everyone saw on Sunday. The only player of note that produced anything significant was Marshawn Lynch who posted 48 yards. Lynch is the back you want on this team but is nothing more than a reserve. The Mike Williams bandwagon should also be unloaded and he should be traded while he carries some weight.

CHIEFS: Jamaal Charles delivered again on fewer touches than Jones and was also an impact in the pass game catching 5 balls for 47 yards and rushing for 53 yards to Jones' 32. Once again, Charles is the one you want on this team though both are starter worthy. Dwayne Bowe has continued his new found trust with Cassel, receiving for 63 yards and a score. Bowe has become a solid #2 WR and should be trustworthy as such for the rest of the year. The Chiefs have the best rushing schedule in the NFL and don't face a truly tough rush defense until the last week of the fantasy playoffs against Tennessee. Despite the loss, the Chiefs are still in the divisional race and will be playing hard. Moeaki should be in your line up every day despite the fact you probably have a better name on your squad. He is the Chief's second option in the pass game and should not be benched.

RAIDERS: After a bad first half which looked like KC would be in control, the Raiders regrouped and Jacoby Ford ate his Wheaties. Ford finished with 148 yards and was the only other player than Mcfadden to make a significant impact. He is worthy of a waiver pick up since he may have just earned himself starter time given Heyward-Bey's magic act week to week and Murphy's health. Oakland has a bye week coming and should have all it's receiving threats back so wait and see what Ford will do and how he will be used. Mcfadden and Miller are the two you can obviously trust but take a wait and see approach before you start anyone else despite this week's production. Besides, you'll probably forget Ford's performance after next week anyway.

COLTS: I tweeted it on the 4th and had him here as a sleeper. Javarris James didn't give you crazy yards but he did give you two scores if you had the balls to start him. Just when you think it's safe to play Garcon, he shows up for 15 yards on two catches. Both Tamme and Wayne had 11 receptions but Tamme had the score on a night where Peyton was hurried often and faced solid coverage. Tamme is another one I called the night of Clark's injury and has lived up to the label of being a Clark clone. As of now, Reggie Wayne is the safest play at the WR position. Garcon and Collie are interchangeable from week to week and the addition of Blair White only complicates things. Garcon has the most upside overall, but is only trust worthy as WR#3 or a flex.

EAGLES: Mike Vick returned right where he left off, rushing for 74 yards with 1 TD and passing for 218 with a score. Desean Jackson is his favorite target and returns to WR 1 status as long as he is healthy. McCoy had his best rushing day since week two, gaining 95 yards on 16 carries. Maclin had a quiet game, but Vick will find him like he did before the injury. The only true change from what you expected on this team is the total lack of production from Brent Celek. Celek had a hard enough time hooking up with Kolb who looked for him more often. Now with Vick, Celek is bench material. Given he was probably drafted as your TE #1, look for options on the wire.

COWBOYS: I've said previously that regardless of what Jerry Jones says, Wade Phillips will get the boot before seasons end. It looks like after the blow out in GB that Jones has softened his stance on not making moves as he stated he will be making changes. It starts with Phillips and has translated to the mentality of this team. The Cowboys have the talent, but they don't have the discipline needed. They need a coach who knows how best to use each individual's talent in given situations. Best to make the change now and use the rest of the year slowly implementing a new system under a new coach. Jason Garrett has always been the guy in waiting and the time is now. Still, Dez Bryant carries the most value on this team and is the only one you can trust to start every week. He faces weaker corner opposition than Austin, runs the routes in space, and has the speed to burn a defense. Austin continues to take a big hit without Kitna, but like Fitzgerald is a high end #2 with #1 potential. If you can hold Austin until the second week of the playoffs, he faces Washington and Arizona. Until then he faces some tougher opponents but will still produce, just not what you expected on draft day.

PACKERS: James Jones came up big again in relief of Donald Driver catching a TD on 123 yards. Jennings added 80 yards with a score and Brandon Jackson had one of his most productive days rushing for 42 and a score along with 26 receiving and a score. The Packers defense has gotten healthier and may be the fastest defense in the league. This is a defense that can win you games. Jones has evolved to a solid WR 3 but will have to be monitored since Driver has the extra week to heal with the bye. Brandon Jackson is a decent RB 2 start, but since you probably have better options could make great trade bait if you have holes on your team.


Sunday, October 31, 2010

SUNDAY IN REVIEW

BRONCOS: Denver tried to feature it's run game and get the defense to respect the run. Too bad it didn't work. Statistically, Moreno put up 40 on 11 carries, far from menacing and enough to get a defense on their heels. Orton focused in on Lloyd passing to him for 169 yards and a score. The Tebow chatter will only grow louder after losing to the 49ers under a QB making his first start. The criticism is misplaced however, since it is the banged up defense making Orton's job that much harder. Aside from that, no QB is going to be effective when defenses are able to sit back and not worry about the run. At this point, the Broncos might want to think about giving Tebow some carries out of the back field. If the Broncos are serious about putting the future in Tebow's hands, now would be the time to let him have a shot. Though they are not out of the divisional race, it will be a big uphill climb.

49ers: Who called a 49er win??? This guy did! I was probably the only one too. I watched Troy Smith in college and liked what I saw. His brief stint in Baltimore was also a good indication of what he could do. He was plagued by injury there, but the little we did see from him seemed hopeful. He can manage a game and his feet are a great secondary weapon. Say hello to SF new QB. I believe he is more a long term option than Smith ever could be. Expect more wins from this squad going ahead. SF simplified the offense and proves that sometimes in the NFL, coaches out think themselves when all you really need is execution on the basics. Troy Smith warrants a pick up if he isn't already taken.

JAGUARS: Gerrard continued his Jeykl and Hyde act this week throwing four TD passes after missing a week injured. This guy is a wild card every week and can't be depended on. If he can one day show some consistency then maybe we can consider him a starting option, but not until then. However, it was nice to see Mike Simms-Walker return to last years type game and hopefully this performance will force Gerrard to look at him more instead of checking down. Mercedes Lewis put up another great game and I said weeks ago to pick him up. This is a guy I drafted after hearing him say he spent the whole off season in Jacksonville just to work out with Gerrard. This is not a fluke! Pick him up and start him every game! MJD had his 3rd solid start in a row rushing for 135 and looks like he may be over his early season injury. Buy low on him if you still can.

COWBOYS: Bye Bye Wade Phillips...I've been saying that despite Jerry Jones' talk that Wade's job is safe, Jerry has to be ready to pull the trigger. The season is lost, your team has obviously stopped playing defense and nobody respects the head coach. They are jumping ship! Bring in Gruden or Cowher and let them start putting the pieces in place and developing this team. Think of it as an early training camp. When the real camp rolls around, these guys will know what the system is and be comfortable. Waiting for the inevitable will only make things harder. Make the change now. While Roy Williams had a down day, I still think he has the relationship with Kitna to have value. As does Austin whom I though would take a small hit because of Kitna's throw power. If you can, I would play it safe and get rid of your Cowboys while they still carry value. The writing is on the wall so don't wait until it hits you on the head. Trade em all.

DOLPHINS: I had both Williams and Brown as sleepers for this game so if you started them you should be happy as Brown gave you 6 points and Williams gave you 10. Not great, but sleeper value. The Dolphins continued to win ugly, not dazzling in any way but letting Carpenter kick five field goals. The defense is this teams savior and is what continues to keep them in games. Marshall is still fantasy start worthy, but after this game I would sell both Brown and Williams as high as you can. Let's face it, you will not feel comfortable starting them all year and you can get something decent for them this week.

BENGALS: Carson Palmer's days are officially numbered. He tried to force to many throws and again was dealing with accuracy issues. One of the passes to Owens should have been a pick but turned into a TD off deflection. After coming out strong to start the game, the Bengals crumbled and could not muster a come back. The defense is especially a problem since they are becoming proficient at letting teams get back into games. Benson racked up only 69 yards on 2o carries which doesn't really give me confidence in him at all. Benson is trade worthy as is Palmer. Palmer is still having value since he will be throwing often, but he can just as easily give you single digits as he can a 15-20 point day. Ocho and TO will be unreliable but when they have big days, like TO did today, expect them to be all or nothing. This will put fantasy owners in a bind, but unless you have a better option, they are worth a roll of the dice.

BILLS: Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson, and Johnson are the only three names you need to know. They are the only three consistent producers both on the field and for your fantasy team. The Bills couldn't get anything going this week yet were still in the game. This is a team that is just coming up short every week but has potential down the line. It's always just a few plays that make the difference for the Bills, and expect them to improve every week. Ironically, I think their struggles bode well for the three guys mentioned as they are what the offense is built around. If you play in a keeper league, these guys are of particular value since you probably got them for a steal and they will have value next year. Be patient, and the above three all are good plays depending on the match up.

CHIEFS: Hailey finally figured out that Jamaal Charles needs more carries and is giving it to them. He has also won both games since giving Charles lead back duties. Charles racked up 177 on the ground and 61 through the air. As I have said before, out of the two he is the one you want. Though Jones is no slouch and a solid #2 starter if you have them. Bowe caught another TD pass and his value is rising. Trade for him now while he will carry mid range value still. This should become a regular type of game for him and while he could have worse games happen, 10 points seems like what you can expect a game out of him.

REDSKINS: First off, I have been singing the praise for Anthony Armstrong who had another solid day and is Washington's main deep threat. He posted 92 yards on only 3 catches. Mcnabb spread the ball around to 7 different receivers since the run game could get nothing going. Moss and Cooley had mediocre days and as stated, Torain found nothing. Keiland Williams did put up better yardage on the ground though and may be an interesting situation moving ahead. The big news out of this game will be the benching of Mcnabb with 2 minutes left because Shanny believed Grossman had a better chance at scoring. Huh? You bring a guy in to bench him when you need him most? The Skins have a bye coming up and they seriously need to settle the coach vs. players issues.

LIONS: Another upset I picked, Stafford proved to be just what the Lions needed. Stafford threw for 4 TD's, and Megatron posted the big day I was expecting. Stafford has the arm and accuracy to take advantage of the weapons around him. The Lions win a few of those close loses in recent weeks if he were at QB. Moving ahead, Stafford has starting QB value and could quietly finish the second half as a top 12 QB in my opinion. CJ's value, Pettigrew, and Best all get a bump while he is in. The curious situation to watch here is that Kevin Smith received the same number of carries as Best. This could become a time share situation, but one offset by Best's pass catching numbers. Best is the one you want but if Smith continues to get equal carries, he could become fantasy relevant while eating into Best's value just a bit.

PANTHERS: This is a team I expected to win in St. Louis and instead they laid an egg behind 3 Matt Moore interceptions. Steve Smith's value obviously is back up after returning from injury last week, but like Fitzgerald in Arizona, his value has been hindered big time due to QB play. Smith is more a solid WR #2 play than the top ten guy we expect. Jonathan Stewart did little to take advantage of his opportunity and will most likely return to his back up role once Williams is healthy. At this point, all Panthers are trade bait. Use Smith's name value and decent game to upgrade weaker positions if you can.

RAMS: They continue to do it by chipping away at you moving the chains. They are doing it by playing defense fast and executing. I will pat myself on the back for calling out B. Gibson as a sleeper for the game, but other than his 67 yards, no Ram went over 60. These guys play well as a group, each man being efficient at his role on the field. The Rams continue to be one of the most exciting teams to watch and are on the right path to becoming serious contenders. Gibson warrants a pick up and should be a solid WR #3 if he can produce again next game. Otherwise, Jackson and Bradford should be guys you sit on and use.

PACKERS: Really not much to take from this game since it was one of those where they faced a great defense who were a perfect fit for the Packers strengths. Three field goals was all the scoring this game had. Keep an eye on Donald Driver's situation since this looks to be a bigger injury than what is being portrayed. No receiver other than Jennings is a safe play. Rogers likes to spread the ball around and so far nobody has cemented the #2 spot. Quarless still has the most upside if you are choosing between him or Lee.

JETS: People are quickly back on the Sanchez hate wagon, but as I said it was just one of those games. Don't jump ship yet as they were facing a defense every bit as good as theirs. Expect the Jets to come back strong next game. Shonn Greene continues to see minimal use and since like me he was probably taken as 2nd RB value it is time to look for options until LT goes down with an injury if that even happens. Hold him, but use any WR or QB depth you have to upgrade the position if you had him as your RB 2.

TITANS: Kenny Britt pulled up lame here and it looks to be a serious hammy pull which can take a speed guy like Britt a few weeks to heal up from. Since in all likely hood he was a waiver pick or low round pick, it shouldn't affect your team. Vince Young also went down with what appears to be an ankle issue but it seems like a sprain and nothing too serious. It will be another week of unknowns for Young owners so hopefully you have another QB not on a bye. Nate Washington stepped up for Britt and looked every bit as good. He will be the one you want moving ahead.

CHARGERS: Using a patch work of receivers, Rivers took advantage of his running backs, throwing to all three. As expected Gates was his main target and will continue to be until one of the starting WR core returns. Tolbert again out performed Mathews with fewer touches though both did get scores. This looks to be what to expect from here on out. Mathews will get the carries but Tolbert will get a good amount and make the best of them. Sproles has emerged as a threat again, though a minimal one. If you own Mathews or Tolbert he may be worth a pick up if you have room in case either of the two go down. Rivers continues to be a stud for fantasy regardless who he throws to and is having a top 3 year.

VIKINGS: Moss is starting to get unhappy and looked like he was ready to make out with Brady after the game. He has good reason since the Vikes are limiting his shots down field, but a big part of that is that teams are double teaming him. Harvin continues to be the beneficiary of this since he is finding more room under the secondary. Peterson has also benefited and continues to be AP game in and out. Favre went down with a chin laceration that took 10 stitches but don't dare start wondering anything about his availability. The Vikings needed this game but are somehow still in the hunt with the loss.

PATRIOTS: I expected Tate and Woodhead to deliver here but it was Tate that surpassed expectations and Woodhead who came under them. Woodhead did score and looks to have taken over what we expected from Welker this year. Maybe Welker is slowed by the knee or maybe Woodhead's versatility is the factor, but Welker should be replaced by Woodhead in your line up. The law firm has planted himself as the undoubted number 1 in New England as we are seeing the Patriots actually look readable for once as far as what guys you can depend on week to week. This could be the game Tate needed to get the confidence a rookie needs at the position and he can be depended on as a WR 3/ borderline 2.

BUCCANEERS: Blount, Blount, Blount. Tampa Bay has found a run game and it is paying off for Freeman, taking the load off of him and allowing the big down field plays. The Bucs have also found a good rotation of Spurlock and Benn at the X spot. The bigger news is how this defense is playing fast and attacking the ball. While there still are miscues in the secondary at times because of the lack of Safety experience, the Bucs are very opportunistic, forcing turnovers. They had 4 picks in this game, two returned for touchdowns. This is obviously a team I watched closely in preseason and could see the potential. I drafted them in fantasy, but they are surpassing even my expectations. Mike Williams continues his bid for ROY catching a TD on 105 yards. Blount ran for 120 yards for 2 scores and is the obvious choice at RB. Winslow on the other hand isn't close to last years numbers and should be a secondary option at best.

CARDINALS: The Cards broke down and continued the QB shuffle, benching Hall and giving Anderson another shot. Though Anderson did force two picks of his own, he looked much more efficient than Hall and led the Cards on solid drives. He should have earned himself at least a shot at being a starter next week but will most likely be back to his #2 role because of the faith the team has in Hall. Fitzgerald did get his as expected, and Beanie Wells did me good on picking him as a sleeper this week. Sell high on him if you can as he will be facing the Vikings, Seattle, and KC whom all pose solid run defenses. However, if you can afford to stash him on the bench and are in contention for the playoff's, he has a great three games then facing Denver, Carolina, and Dallas. Steve Breaston is also back and merits a look as a possible #3 guy depending on your starters opponents.

SEAHAWKS: Seattle could get nothing going against the Oakland defense and were blown off the ball play after play. Much like the Jets, it wasn't necessarily an indication of anything other than a bad day all teams can expect. Lynch did get the bigger number of carries but the run game was abandoned early due to the situation they were in. Once they were down it became awfully hard to pass against a solid Raider secondary. John Carlson didn't quite live up to the sleeper status I billed him for but was the leading receiver with 47 yards. I believe Carlson will be used more in the future so get him at a very low price if able. The back you want here is still Lynch, and his remaining schedule is a mixed bag that should provide good numbers moving ahead though not stellar numbers. He is trust worthy as a flex guy but if he is your #2 it may not be the best situation.

RAIDERS: This defense has found it's groove and are playing as aggressive as any unit in the NFL. Mcfadden continued to shine, posting 111 yards, and has elevated to #1 back status. Since he was taken at #3 back value in your draft, you should be sitting pretty with depth. Heyward Bey also finally broke out passing 100 yds. and a score but should not be counted on. Do not count on Campbell to be a trust worthy start weekly either. Past Mcfadden and Miller your Raiders should be used as bench and bye week fodder. The Oakland schedule gets a bit harder coming up as they will face KC, MIA, and PIT.

STEELERS: Another game I called, my thoughts on why they would lose proved right on as Ben did struggle facing a tough, fast, defense on the road for a second week. It's a loss caused more by his rust than anything else. Not much to be read into here. The Steeler offense will return to itself but a game like this was needed to get Ben sharp again and seeing different looks from a good defense. It's a growing type game both he and the team should grow from. Mendenhall had the best game rushing for 71 yards and a score so no news as to his value. Keep your Steelers and chalk it up to a game that was bound to happen.

SAINTS: The Saints pass game finally looked like the team we saw last year as Brees spread the ball to Meachem, Colston, and Moore effectively. The cause for concern comes in the back field where it was a committee approach. Ivory was not the lead back as expected, though no back really produced against the Steelers front seven. With Bush looking to return this week, expect Ivory's numbers to drop along with your expectations. If you can get something for him now is the time to do it. Wait on proclaiming Meachem back, but it was a great sign and could be a game that puts faith in Brees in looking for him more.

Monday, October 25, 2010

SUNDAY IN REVIEW

BENGALS: The Bengals came out flat but then found their game in the second half. Carson continues to be fantasy relevant because of how much he is throwing, and Ocho is clearly the only receiver worth starting and TO is nothing but a flex play if you don't have other options. I know he had a good day but Shipley is eating into his production. Cedric Benson coughed the ball up in a critical situation which led to a Falcon score and would wind up being the difference. He has not lived up to his pre-season hype and is a good sell if you can get value for him. He is currently ranked 17th in standard scoring and has only broken double digit fantasy points once.

FALCONS: This is a team that has only a few weapons, yet despite everyone knowing what is coming they are still effective. It's like trying to hit Mariano Rivera's cutter. You know what he's gonna throw but his one trick is better than anything you can do about it. Roddy White is on track to finish this year as a top three WR and has scored double digit fantasy points in all but one game. Matt Ryan is still a number two QB but seems to be slowly evolving into a possible start status depending on your options. Mike Turner has only scored double digit points now in two games, and this was his second game of the season with a score. I see him as a sell high after this performance. He has not lived up to his first round status and you should be able to trade him for a guy like Felix Jones who has more upside going ahead and a solid #2 WR.

STEELERS: I called a Miami upset, and it should have been in the end there but Big Ben got lucky once again. He is obviously a solid starter at QB and the value of Hines Ward is back to normal. Most likely, anyone who drafted Wallace, Ward, or Ben did so in the middle rounds and has a solid line up already so these guys have just made your team that much better. I do think that Mendenhall's value actually decreases with the return of Ben since he's been relied on less and the Steelers are more effective passing. Mike Wallace is a must start every game going ahead and will finish the second half as a top ten WR.

DOLPHINS: Oh Ronnie Brown...where are you? The Dolphins have become a passing team with the ineffective run game this year. Neither Brown nor Williams has come close to their original values, and I don't see things getting much better for them. Henne is still not a starting QB on your team, but Hartline and Bess are emerging as guys who are fantasy relevant come your bye week or depending on the match up.

BILLS: What? Go buy a lottery ticket if you saw this one coming. Fitzpatrick a 28 pt. day against the Ravens? Don't jump on the bandwagon yet, though Fitz does have value as a number two guy because he will be throwing so much. Although Lee Evans had the monster game here, Steven Johnson is the WR you want on this squad. He has been the most consistent week to week and has great value in keeper leagues. I still don't trust either RB as a start unless it's against lesser defenses.

RAVENS: Nothing changes for this team in fantasy perspectives, but talk about being unprepared. In their defense, Buffalo always plays to the level of their competition and is the Cinderella man of football. The Ravens will be good to go moving ahead as your starters are concerned but I think Houshmenzadeh has value as a player but not in fantasy. He should carry nothing more than sleeper status from here out. Rice has been somewhat of a let down so far, scoring in double digits in only three of the seven games. He does have a great schedule though coming after the bye week, facing only two tough rush defenses in Pittsburgh and Miami. He should payoff for you soon.

JAGS: Uhh, Todd Bouman, you may be 38 years old but here's your new five year deal....That's what the Jags should be saying. A guy who hasn't thrown a game pass in five years just performed better than any of your starters. Even better, he made the Jags players somewhat relevant again. If Del Rio has any cojones he will start Bouman again to see what he can do for this team. Though, isn't this a huge knock on Del Rio being the problem? A QB who you only had a week to coach lights it up compared to the QB you have groomed. MJD finally had that game we were all waiting for, though keep in mind he only put up 47 rush yards. Yes, KC is stout against the run but he has only broken the century mark on the ground once this year. Only one other time did he come close so far. Given this team and just how bad the pass defense has been, they will be throwing a lot more to come. Yes Drew still has value in the pass game as he just showed, but I think he is a great sell high candidate who can garner multiple players to shore up the holes on your team. You can probably get a top WR and a guy like Cedric Benson, Felix Jones, Moreno, T. Jones, or B. Wells. All guys who can give you a decent average close to the norm for Jones Drew.

CHIEFS: As I've said before, the Chiefs may have the only fantasy duo at RB worth starting every week. With the pass game coming alive we can see the benefits Jones and Charles are reaping. KC has the best schedule this year against the rush and both have potential to produce. Although, if you have needs and multiple backs worthy of starting, Thomas Jones is the one you would want to part with over Charles barring any injury. Charles is getting the touches and has more long term value as the season goes on. The Chiefs are the real deal this year and should win their division.

BROWNS: Hello upset city! The Browns have always had a good defense but 4 picks on what many consider the 2nd best QB in the league? While this was a great win, don't expect it to happen again. Sorry Browns fan. Peyton Hillis continues to impress and is a solid #2 RB going ahead. The overall problem will be the growing curve McCoy has to face since he is a rookie and will limit Cribbs' value and Masssaqoui when he returns. Ben Watson's value on the other hand should continue to be high as McCoy will continue to rely on him. He is a TE who may quietly be a top ten for the season when all is said and done.

SAINTS: I was saying it all pre-season to whomever would listen. Being a Bucs fan, no team in this division tends to repeat winning it the next year. Also, the numerous surgeries to all the WR's gave me doubts. They have all looked to be missing a step except for Lance Moore whom looks to finally be healthy after struggling with injury last year. Brees just had a bad game, and not much should be read into his performance. The great thing about the Saints is that even on a Brees off day both he and the team still have fantasy value. Colston is slowly looking like the receiver we expected of him and should be solid moving ahead. Reggie Bush should be back this week which is great news for a team that is missing the dimensions he brings. It should also have an impact on Chris Ivory's value so trade him if you can while you can. This was just a bad day for the Saints, but do not expect last year's numbers as they have proven to have lost a step.

REDSKINS: They are the epitome of Rocky this year. They get beaten all game, take their lumps and in the end deliver a knock out blow after wearing you down. This game wasn't as typical, since both teams made a number of errors. In the end, it was Deangelo Hall's record day that led the Skins to victory. All the names continue to be decent fantasy starts, but the guy I am most excited about is Anthony Armstrong. While he finished with only 42 yds, he dropped a pass that would have gone for about a 30 yard score in open field. Mcnabb trusts him and he has become the down field threat that matches Moss. He will be a feast or famine guy, but his famine consists of about 5 fantasy points. Not that horrible for a #3 guy who has the ability to score double digits in any game. Especially with bye weeks, he garners great consideration.

BEARS: Jay Cutler single handedly gave the game to the Redskins with four picks, but the blame doesn't fall completely on him. He was also sacked four times and faced pressure throughout the game. This Offensive line needs to create more time for Jay. A QB running for his life all game can't be effective no matter who you are. Johnny Knox is definitely the only Bears WR you can trust, and will face the Buffalo secondary after the bye. Other than Forte, I would sell high on all your Bears. They face Minnesota, Philly, New England, and the Jets at home along with Minnesota and Miami on the road. Excluding NE, all these teams have good secondaries and are solid overall defensively.

49ERS: Alex Smith went down with a shoulder injury to his non throwing arm which opened the door for David Carr. Too bad he showed nothing to garner confidence and threw the interception that allowed a Carolina win. It's too early to abandon ship fantasy wise as we need to see what Carr does with a week of practice as the starter. Smith was just starting to look somewhat dependable and now there may be more frustration to come for Crabtree and Davis owners. Gore is and will continue to be the work horse for this team and is an obvious start every week.

PANTHERS: It looks like Matt Moore was the right choice for coach Fox as he threw for two TD's . D. Gettis was the primary beneficiary catching a TD and 125 yards. We may have found a second WR that makes Carolina relevant again and takes some pressure off Steve Smith, but let's wait and see what this team does next week. They beat an uninspiring team who has fallen hard. Both Deangelo Williams and Stewart continue to be major disappointments but do have some good match up's coming up. Williams has been listed as day to day with injury so Stewart gets a slight bump in the coming weeks as a Flex play.

RAMS: The Rams continued their road losing ways against the Bucs, but had the game in their grasp until a Josh Freeman TD pass to Cadillac Williams with only 20 seconds left. Steven Jackson looked good and was extremely effective against the Bucs rush defense. Sam Bradford also threw 2 TD passes but was held to 126 pass yards. The Rams were at a loss in terms of finding a passing game but were effective in the red zone where it mattered. They let the Bucs hang around, hitting field goals throughout the game. Danny Amendola is the receiver to trust on this team as Denario Alexander disappeared completely. Steven Jackson continues to be a very under rated back this year, as he has scored double digit points every week except one. He did have some type of surgery on Monday to a finger but looks good to go based on his words. Bradford has also proven to be a viable number two QB.

BUCCANEERS: Josh Freeman continued his 4th quarter come backs pulling out a win in the final two minutes which led to the Bucs only TD of the day. He looked overall off his game, having a bad day until the second half. Mike Williams came inches from a score and is the WR you want on this team. He is just outside of top 20 WR in fantasy and is someone who continues to slip under the radar. He showed special poise on the last drive where with time winding down instead of running out of bounds, he cut in and ran for another fifteen yards which set up the score. Cadillac Williams is all but drop material as Legarette Blount ran for over 70 yds. and showed the best performance by a back this year. He is a definite pick up this week. Freeman has been reliable as a QB 2 this year but is still lower tier #2. Kellen Winslow is playing hurt and it is showing. He will have his games where he blows up, but don't expect him to return to last years stats.

EAGLES: Kolb officially lost the job with his 2 interception day and misses the opportunity to continue his hold on what could have been his. The Eagles are a much different team without Desean Jackson and there is a shot he can return after the bye. The Eagles played a good team that is going largely unnoticed. The Titans defense has played better than anyone expected, but Kolb had his chances and could not get it done. Vick will return and hopefully get the Eagles back on track. The bye comes at a perfect time for the Eagles so they can regroup and get their guys some health back. Celek has been a huge let down and if you can find a better replacement do so. Kolb was his best bet at fantasy scoring and now that he is going to be second fiddle, Celek loses the little value he has.

TITANS: Kenny Britt has emerged into a fantasy monster and the future looks bright for him depending on if he avoids a suspension and future trouble. Chris Johnson has opened up the passing game for Britt but the Titans need Nate Washington to step it up. Bo Scaife is putting up numbers very similar to Washington and that isn't a good thing. Vince Young looks to possibly return this week and will get his job back. Though it is comforting to know Collins hasn't missed a step and is a very solid replacement. The Titan defense is quietly having a very solid year and warrant consideration as a capable defense to start.

CARDINALS: Max Hall left in the third Quarter after having his bell rung and Anderson again proved unable to make something happen. Hall has been named the QB for the season but there will be cause for concern in Arizona since he is just getting his feet wet. Fitzgerald carries name value only this year. While he will get his, it will be a far cry from what we expect from him. If you can get a good deal trading Fitz in non-keeper leagues, I say do it while you can. The better news is that both Wells and Hightower looked decent but Wells is definitely the guy you want as he is getting double the carries and most likely to score. Neither one is a safe play yet but they only have two games left on the fantasy schedule which look like tough run match ups.

SEAHAWKS: They continue to get the job done, chipping away at opponents. This is a team playing very similar to the Redskins as they always seem to do just enough to win. Mike Williams is officially a legitimate starter and has looked to shed the baggage he once literally carried. Hasselbeck trusts Williams and is the only WR you can trust on this team for now. Marshawn Lynch's 24 carries to Forsett's 9 has to worry you as a Forsett owner. It looks like Carrol trusts Lynch and has all but crowned him the lead back. Like Arizona, the Hawks back field only have two somewhat tough run defenses left to face so Lynch is a good #2 going ahead.

PATRIOTS: They just got away with one against the Chargers and this new offense is taking some getting used too. Brady is spreading the ball out too much to trust anyone at this point, even Welker. This is reminiscent of the old Patriots that went to the Super Bowl, but minus the swagger. Aaron Hernandez seems to be the best fantasy play for now week in and out with Woodhead a close second because of his carries and receiving abilities. He's one of the first to carry a RB/WR positional slot making him very valuable to your fantasy team. The law firm did not do anything special but again got the carry for a TD. He is only trustworthy as a borderline flex/#2 play at best. The Pats continue to cause headaches for owners of their RB's and a healthy Fred Taylor may just compound things when he returns.

CHARGERS: Another week of Ryan Mathews getting the touches but not the score. The Chargers are a pass first team which opens up the run. You would expect more production from Mathews with teams on their heels, but he has not been able to produce anything close to expectations. Tolbert seems to be the guy you want because of his nose for the end zone, and I would expect Norv to maybe get him back to touching the ball more. Rivers is a great play regardless of who he's throwing too. With another week of rest for Gates and Floyd, the team should be more effective. Floyd is still a question mark this week and we may be getting closer to seeing Naanee return. Stay patient with your Chargers, but look for options if you own Mathews.

RAIDERS: Don't even act like you saw this one coming. The Raiders had their best day in years where everything they did resulted in a TD. A game like this only makes things harder to evaluate since they went from a horrible game against the 49ers to a lifetime game in Denver. What we can take for fact is Mcfadden is recovered and a solid starter from here on out and Zach Miller is the only receiving option you can trust. Murphy re-injured his collar bone and has questions on if he will be ready this week coming. Forget about buying into Campbell just yet until he shows reliability two weeks in a row. The Oakland defense has been playing well but faces some tough opponents from here on out.

BRONCOS: Nothing changes here in terms of fantasy starts, though Moreno does become slightly more reliable after two weeks of decent performances on the ground. Far from great, he has proven to be Denver's best option. Overall, this is a game you chalk up to fate. The Broncos were beaten around from the first possession and will return to their passing form and effectiveness next week. Start the guys you have in confidence next week.

VIKINGS: Don't panic just yet Harvin and Moss owners. Yes Favre's iron man streak may come to an end, but he wasn't really lights out so far. Despite his ineffectiveness, the WR core has put up points and Tavaris could be a good thing. He will especially pay off for Schiancoe and Harvin in those intermediate routes. While Moss may take a slight hit in value, he will still be the top red zone target cause of his size and don't underestimate Jackson's ability to throw deep. He's never had all these weapons at once to work with and will surprise if given a chance. While Favre is not a sure bet to be ruled out, my guess he is done for at minimum a week. He looked to be very hampered by the injury and a heel isn't the best place for a QB to get injured. If he is out, look for more doses of Peterson. Thankfully, the Vikes face the NE secondary next week so don't expect a big drop off from any production in your receivers. Buy low on Harvin and Moss if there are anxious owners out there.

PACKERS: Brandon Jackson had another productive fantasy day and although he is putting up average yardage, the ability for Rogers to get him within scoring distance makes him a decent play. The biggest thing I noticed was the play of Andrew Quarless. He caught a TD and looked more athletic than Lee and reminiscent of Finley. Expect Mcarthy to use him more next game. If he produces again you may have your new GB TE #1 for the season which carries good value. Pick him up and stash him for a week if you have the room. I wouldn't completely buy into James Jones yet though he would be interesting in a keeper league to pick up if you have the room to stash a guy for a while. Given Driver's age and injury issue, Jones could even pay off this year IF he continues to get the playing time instead of Driver.

COWBOYS: What a difference a day makes....Romo looks to be out anywhere from 6 to 10 weeks with a fractured clavicle. While Kitna is a serviceable replacement, he is far from the threat or talent Romo is. Dez Bryant would be about the only guy I trust as far as the receivers go since he will run those routes Kitna is comfortable with. Austin takes the biggest hit, as his down field value diminishes with Kitna. I would buy low on Felix Jones however. The Boys will need to run the ball more often in hopes of not putting too much on Kitna and Jones has the best upside. The problem comes if the Cowboys continue to find themselves behind and need to pass more. Even then, Jones pass catching ability does make him interesting. While the Cowboys won't necessarily mail it in for the season, they are in a big hole to dig out of. We will have to see what Kitna can do since he's always been an under rated QB and has ability to manage a game if given the chance. This could not be as bad as we all think if Kitna avoids turning the ball over.

GIANTS: Manning started off bad but finished with a career day, tossing 4 TD's. Jacobs and Bradshaw continued their effectiveness in their new defined roles and Hakeem Nicks had another feast this game. Steve Smith may have cemented himself as the #2 WR you want over Manningham, but week to week it is still uncertain. Nicks is the only sure play at WR but now Jacobs has increased his value big time. The Giants have a great schedule after the bye but face Minnesota, Philadelphia, and Green Bay come playoff time. Something to keep in your mind going forward. If you have depth at RB and Jacobs is on your squad I say sell high and address weaknesses on your team.