Showing posts with label Rams. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rams. Show all posts

Sunday, October 31, 2010

SUNDAY IN REVIEW

BRONCOS: Denver tried to feature it's run game and get the defense to respect the run. Too bad it didn't work. Statistically, Moreno put up 40 on 11 carries, far from menacing and enough to get a defense on their heels. Orton focused in on Lloyd passing to him for 169 yards and a score. The Tebow chatter will only grow louder after losing to the 49ers under a QB making his first start. The criticism is misplaced however, since it is the banged up defense making Orton's job that much harder. Aside from that, no QB is going to be effective when defenses are able to sit back and not worry about the run. At this point, the Broncos might want to think about giving Tebow some carries out of the back field. If the Broncos are serious about putting the future in Tebow's hands, now would be the time to let him have a shot. Though they are not out of the divisional race, it will be a big uphill climb.

49ers: Who called a 49er win??? This guy did! I was probably the only one too. I watched Troy Smith in college and liked what I saw. His brief stint in Baltimore was also a good indication of what he could do. He was plagued by injury there, but the little we did see from him seemed hopeful. He can manage a game and his feet are a great secondary weapon. Say hello to SF new QB. I believe he is more a long term option than Smith ever could be. Expect more wins from this squad going ahead. SF simplified the offense and proves that sometimes in the NFL, coaches out think themselves when all you really need is execution on the basics. Troy Smith warrants a pick up if he isn't already taken.

JAGUARS: Gerrard continued his Jeykl and Hyde act this week throwing four TD passes after missing a week injured. This guy is a wild card every week and can't be depended on. If he can one day show some consistency then maybe we can consider him a starting option, but not until then. However, it was nice to see Mike Simms-Walker return to last years type game and hopefully this performance will force Gerrard to look at him more instead of checking down. Mercedes Lewis put up another great game and I said weeks ago to pick him up. This is a guy I drafted after hearing him say he spent the whole off season in Jacksonville just to work out with Gerrard. This is not a fluke! Pick him up and start him every game! MJD had his 3rd solid start in a row rushing for 135 and looks like he may be over his early season injury. Buy low on him if you still can.

COWBOYS: Bye Bye Wade Phillips...I've been saying that despite Jerry Jones' talk that Wade's job is safe, Jerry has to be ready to pull the trigger. The season is lost, your team has obviously stopped playing defense and nobody respects the head coach. They are jumping ship! Bring in Gruden or Cowher and let them start putting the pieces in place and developing this team. Think of it as an early training camp. When the real camp rolls around, these guys will know what the system is and be comfortable. Waiting for the inevitable will only make things harder. Make the change now. While Roy Williams had a down day, I still think he has the relationship with Kitna to have value. As does Austin whom I though would take a small hit because of Kitna's throw power. If you can, I would play it safe and get rid of your Cowboys while they still carry value. The writing is on the wall so don't wait until it hits you on the head. Trade em all.

DOLPHINS: I had both Williams and Brown as sleepers for this game so if you started them you should be happy as Brown gave you 6 points and Williams gave you 10. Not great, but sleeper value. The Dolphins continued to win ugly, not dazzling in any way but letting Carpenter kick five field goals. The defense is this teams savior and is what continues to keep them in games. Marshall is still fantasy start worthy, but after this game I would sell both Brown and Williams as high as you can. Let's face it, you will not feel comfortable starting them all year and you can get something decent for them this week.

BENGALS: Carson Palmer's days are officially numbered. He tried to force to many throws and again was dealing with accuracy issues. One of the passes to Owens should have been a pick but turned into a TD off deflection. After coming out strong to start the game, the Bengals crumbled and could not muster a come back. The defense is especially a problem since they are becoming proficient at letting teams get back into games. Benson racked up only 69 yards on 2o carries which doesn't really give me confidence in him at all. Benson is trade worthy as is Palmer. Palmer is still having value since he will be throwing often, but he can just as easily give you single digits as he can a 15-20 point day. Ocho and TO will be unreliable but when they have big days, like TO did today, expect them to be all or nothing. This will put fantasy owners in a bind, but unless you have a better option, they are worth a roll of the dice.

BILLS: Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson, and Johnson are the only three names you need to know. They are the only three consistent producers both on the field and for your fantasy team. The Bills couldn't get anything going this week yet were still in the game. This is a team that is just coming up short every week but has potential down the line. It's always just a few plays that make the difference for the Bills, and expect them to improve every week. Ironically, I think their struggles bode well for the three guys mentioned as they are what the offense is built around. If you play in a keeper league, these guys are of particular value since you probably got them for a steal and they will have value next year. Be patient, and the above three all are good plays depending on the match up.

CHIEFS: Hailey finally figured out that Jamaal Charles needs more carries and is giving it to them. He has also won both games since giving Charles lead back duties. Charles racked up 177 on the ground and 61 through the air. As I have said before, out of the two he is the one you want. Though Jones is no slouch and a solid #2 starter if you have them. Bowe caught another TD pass and his value is rising. Trade for him now while he will carry mid range value still. This should become a regular type of game for him and while he could have worse games happen, 10 points seems like what you can expect a game out of him.

REDSKINS: First off, I have been singing the praise for Anthony Armstrong who had another solid day and is Washington's main deep threat. He posted 92 yards on only 3 catches. Mcnabb spread the ball around to 7 different receivers since the run game could get nothing going. Moss and Cooley had mediocre days and as stated, Torain found nothing. Keiland Williams did put up better yardage on the ground though and may be an interesting situation moving ahead. The big news out of this game will be the benching of Mcnabb with 2 minutes left because Shanny believed Grossman had a better chance at scoring. Huh? You bring a guy in to bench him when you need him most? The Skins have a bye coming up and they seriously need to settle the coach vs. players issues.

LIONS: Another upset I picked, Stafford proved to be just what the Lions needed. Stafford threw for 4 TD's, and Megatron posted the big day I was expecting. Stafford has the arm and accuracy to take advantage of the weapons around him. The Lions win a few of those close loses in recent weeks if he were at QB. Moving ahead, Stafford has starting QB value and could quietly finish the second half as a top 12 QB in my opinion. CJ's value, Pettigrew, and Best all get a bump while he is in. The curious situation to watch here is that Kevin Smith received the same number of carries as Best. This could become a time share situation, but one offset by Best's pass catching numbers. Best is the one you want but if Smith continues to get equal carries, he could become fantasy relevant while eating into Best's value just a bit.

PANTHERS: This is a team I expected to win in St. Louis and instead they laid an egg behind 3 Matt Moore interceptions. Steve Smith's value obviously is back up after returning from injury last week, but like Fitzgerald in Arizona, his value has been hindered big time due to QB play. Smith is more a solid WR #2 play than the top ten guy we expect. Jonathan Stewart did little to take advantage of his opportunity and will most likely return to his back up role once Williams is healthy. At this point, all Panthers are trade bait. Use Smith's name value and decent game to upgrade weaker positions if you can.

RAMS: They continue to do it by chipping away at you moving the chains. They are doing it by playing defense fast and executing. I will pat myself on the back for calling out B. Gibson as a sleeper for the game, but other than his 67 yards, no Ram went over 60. These guys play well as a group, each man being efficient at his role on the field. The Rams continue to be one of the most exciting teams to watch and are on the right path to becoming serious contenders. Gibson warrants a pick up and should be a solid WR #3 if he can produce again next game. Otherwise, Jackson and Bradford should be guys you sit on and use.

PACKERS: Really not much to take from this game since it was one of those where they faced a great defense who were a perfect fit for the Packers strengths. Three field goals was all the scoring this game had. Keep an eye on Donald Driver's situation since this looks to be a bigger injury than what is being portrayed. No receiver other than Jennings is a safe play. Rogers likes to spread the ball around and so far nobody has cemented the #2 spot. Quarless still has the most upside if you are choosing between him or Lee.

JETS: People are quickly back on the Sanchez hate wagon, but as I said it was just one of those games. Don't jump ship yet as they were facing a defense every bit as good as theirs. Expect the Jets to come back strong next game. Shonn Greene continues to see minimal use and since like me he was probably taken as 2nd RB value it is time to look for options until LT goes down with an injury if that even happens. Hold him, but use any WR or QB depth you have to upgrade the position if you had him as your RB 2.

TITANS: Kenny Britt pulled up lame here and it looks to be a serious hammy pull which can take a speed guy like Britt a few weeks to heal up from. Since in all likely hood he was a waiver pick or low round pick, it shouldn't affect your team. Vince Young also went down with what appears to be an ankle issue but it seems like a sprain and nothing too serious. It will be another week of unknowns for Young owners so hopefully you have another QB not on a bye. Nate Washington stepped up for Britt and looked every bit as good. He will be the one you want moving ahead.

CHARGERS: Using a patch work of receivers, Rivers took advantage of his running backs, throwing to all three. As expected Gates was his main target and will continue to be until one of the starting WR core returns. Tolbert again out performed Mathews with fewer touches though both did get scores. This looks to be what to expect from here on out. Mathews will get the carries but Tolbert will get a good amount and make the best of them. Sproles has emerged as a threat again, though a minimal one. If you own Mathews or Tolbert he may be worth a pick up if you have room in case either of the two go down. Rivers continues to be a stud for fantasy regardless who he throws to and is having a top 3 year.

VIKINGS: Moss is starting to get unhappy and looked like he was ready to make out with Brady after the game. He has good reason since the Vikes are limiting his shots down field, but a big part of that is that teams are double teaming him. Harvin continues to be the beneficiary of this since he is finding more room under the secondary. Peterson has also benefited and continues to be AP game in and out. Favre went down with a chin laceration that took 10 stitches but don't dare start wondering anything about his availability. The Vikings needed this game but are somehow still in the hunt with the loss.

PATRIOTS: I expected Tate and Woodhead to deliver here but it was Tate that surpassed expectations and Woodhead who came under them. Woodhead did score and looks to have taken over what we expected from Welker this year. Maybe Welker is slowed by the knee or maybe Woodhead's versatility is the factor, but Welker should be replaced by Woodhead in your line up. The law firm has planted himself as the undoubted number 1 in New England as we are seeing the Patriots actually look readable for once as far as what guys you can depend on week to week. This could be the game Tate needed to get the confidence a rookie needs at the position and he can be depended on as a WR 3/ borderline 2.

BUCCANEERS: Blount, Blount, Blount. Tampa Bay has found a run game and it is paying off for Freeman, taking the load off of him and allowing the big down field plays. The Bucs have also found a good rotation of Spurlock and Benn at the X spot. The bigger news is how this defense is playing fast and attacking the ball. While there still are miscues in the secondary at times because of the lack of Safety experience, the Bucs are very opportunistic, forcing turnovers. They had 4 picks in this game, two returned for touchdowns. This is obviously a team I watched closely in preseason and could see the potential. I drafted them in fantasy, but they are surpassing even my expectations. Mike Williams continues his bid for ROY catching a TD on 105 yards. Blount ran for 120 yards for 2 scores and is the obvious choice at RB. Winslow on the other hand isn't close to last years numbers and should be a secondary option at best.

CARDINALS: The Cards broke down and continued the QB shuffle, benching Hall and giving Anderson another shot. Though Anderson did force two picks of his own, he looked much more efficient than Hall and led the Cards on solid drives. He should have earned himself at least a shot at being a starter next week but will most likely be back to his #2 role because of the faith the team has in Hall. Fitzgerald did get his as expected, and Beanie Wells did me good on picking him as a sleeper this week. Sell high on him if you can as he will be facing the Vikings, Seattle, and KC whom all pose solid run defenses. However, if you can afford to stash him on the bench and are in contention for the playoff's, he has a great three games then facing Denver, Carolina, and Dallas. Steve Breaston is also back and merits a look as a possible #3 guy depending on your starters opponents.

SEAHAWKS: Seattle could get nothing going against the Oakland defense and were blown off the ball play after play. Much like the Jets, it wasn't necessarily an indication of anything other than a bad day all teams can expect. Lynch did get the bigger number of carries but the run game was abandoned early due to the situation they were in. Once they were down it became awfully hard to pass against a solid Raider secondary. John Carlson didn't quite live up to the sleeper status I billed him for but was the leading receiver with 47 yards. I believe Carlson will be used more in the future so get him at a very low price if able. The back you want here is still Lynch, and his remaining schedule is a mixed bag that should provide good numbers moving ahead though not stellar numbers. He is trust worthy as a flex guy but if he is your #2 it may not be the best situation.

RAIDERS: This defense has found it's groove and are playing as aggressive as any unit in the NFL. Mcfadden continued to shine, posting 111 yards, and has elevated to #1 back status. Since he was taken at #3 back value in your draft, you should be sitting pretty with depth. Heyward Bey also finally broke out passing 100 yds. and a score but should not be counted on. Do not count on Campbell to be a trust worthy start weekly either. Past Mcfadden and Miller your Raiders should be used as bench and bye week fodder. The Oakland schedule gets a bit harder coming up as they will face KC, MIA, and PIT.

STEELERS: Another game I called, my thoughts on why they would lose proved right on as Ben did struggle facing a tough, fast, defense on the road for a second week. It's a loss caused more by his rust than anything else. Not much to be read into here. The Steeler offense will return to itself but a game like this was needed to get Ben sharp again and seeing different looks from a good defense. It's a growing type game both he and the team should grow from. Mendenhall had the best game rushing for 71 yards and a score so no news as to his value. Keep your Steelers and chalk it up to a game that was bound to happen.

SAINTS: The Saints pass game finally looked like the team we saw last year as Brees spread the ball to Meachem, Colston, and Moore effectively. The cause for concern comes in the back field where it was a committee approach. Ivory was not the lead back as expected, though no back really produced against the Steelers front seven. With Bush looking to return this week, expect Ivory's numbers to drop along with your expectations. If you can get something for him now is the time to do it. Wait on proclaiming Meachem back, but it was a great sign and could be a game that puts faith in Brees in looking for him more.

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

WEEK 7 PREVIEW

CINCINNATI BENGALS at ATLANTA FALCONS: BENGALS: The Bengals no doubt spent their bye week shoring up their pass issues. Ochocinco, T.O. and Carson Palmer have not looked in snyc this year and it has affected Cedric Benson's effectiveness. They now face Atlanta who plays better at home but is facing further pass defense issues as Dunta Robinson looks to be held out this week due to his concussion after a hit on Deshaun Jackson. Atlanta already ranks 25th against the pass and that was with Robinson. Cincinnati ranks 7th passing even with their lack of continuity passing wise and face a great match up here. Look for the Bengals to air it out often and Carson to have his best game of the season after preparing well to take advantage of the situation. Atlanta ranks 9th against the rush so expect an average day for Benson.
FALCONS: The Falcons boast the 7th rated rush offense and face the Bengals 18th ranked rush defense. The Falcons know the Bengals will air it out and will give Cedric Benson all the work he can handle to keep the ball out of Palmer's hands. Matt Ryan finally got Jenkins back who saw as many targets as White last week. The Bengals do have corners capable of covering Jenkins and White well leaving the opportunity to bring a man up against Turner's rush attack. Turner has not looked particularly stellar this year but will be a good start given the work load he should see. Given the tight secondary the Bengals will play, look for Gonzales to score with single coverage.

Cincinnati has the better match ups here offensively and despite their lack of a pass rush will probably use a lot of cover 1 effectively. Cincinnati is in a much more desperate situation and coming off an extra week to prepare should be effective. Atlanta plays great at home but loses this one by a hair. CINCI 27-ATL 24.

FANTASY STARTS: BENGALS: Palmer (270 yds. 2 TD) Ochocinco (5 for 90 1 TD) T.O. (4 for 60 1 TD) FALCONS: Turner (19 for 100 yds. 1 TD) Gonzales (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) White (7 for 80 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: J. Greisham CIN...Given how the ATL secondary will have it's hands full, Greisham should be productive and sneak in for a score.

JACKSONVILLE JAGS at KC CHIEFS: JAGS: David Gerrard went down with what seems to be yet another concussion on Monday night and Trent Edwards has been diagnosed with a thumb injury serious enough for Del Rio to call in some players for a work out. Whoever the QB is, it will be on them to win this game. KC ranks 5th against the run so MJD should be relatively held in check. Good news for Jags is that they also rank 25th against the pass. However if it boils down to Patrick Ramsey or some other guy they pull off the street all Jags, yes even MJD become secondary thoughts if you have another warm body to replace them. If Gerrard does play, MJD is an average play but Simms-Walker and Mike Thomas become decent #3 WR options.
CHIEFS: Somehow in a game where everything went right for the Chiefs they managed to lose. It was a bad call, but none the less was a loss. Todd Hailey has these guys believing in what they can do and the Chiefs are a legitimate contender for the division this year. Jacksonville is 19th against the run where the Chiefs are tops in the league. The Jags are even worse against the pass facing a Matt Cassel that hit his stride last week and looks to build on it. All the Chiefs look to be solid plays this week in Arrowhead where it's tough enough for better teams to win much less the Jags.

The Chiefs should have a field day with Jacksonville, regardless who starts.
KC 28-JAGS 17.

FANTASY STARTS: CHIEFS: Charles (13 for 90 yds 1 TD) Jones (10 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Cassel (240 yds 1 TD) Bowe (4 for 80 yds. 1 TD)
JAGS: If Gerrard plays...MJD (14 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Mike Simms-Walker (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Chris Chambers....If KC gets up quick they will want to involve Chambers and show him some love after he was the only one left out in the cold last week.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS at CHICAGO BEARS: SKINS: Mcnabb and co. finally ran out of 4th quarter luck against the Colts. Washington continues to hang around and while they are not excelling in anything they always get that play when they need it. Torain should find it hard against the Bears 3rd ranked rush defense leaving it to Mcnabb to put up the points. I love Anthony Armstrong and think by season end he becomes this teams leading TD grabber. Look for a big game from him this week against the Bears 18th ranked pass D.
BEARS: A huge let down last week to the Seabags will have this team hungry again. I called the upset last week and believe it was a result of several factors, one being Cutlers rust. That won't be the case this week. Greg Olsen needs to be involved this week as Martz tends to just forget about him yet the team is more effective when he gets targets. Aromashadu actually played last week and is interesting this week to see how they use him. The Skins rank 31st against the pass so there should be plenty to go around for Knox, Olsen and even Hester.

The Bears offense should thrive in this match up as there really is no Washington defense to speak of.
BEARS 31- SKINS 21

FANTASY STARTS: WASH: Mcnabb (250 yds. 2 TD) Armstrong (5 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Moss (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) CHI: Cutler (300yds. 3 TD) Knox (6 for 110 yds. 1 TD) Hester (5 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Forte ( 14 for 90 yds./ 6 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Olsen ( 4 for 50 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: K. Williams WASH....after last week, he should look to be more involved going ahead. Maybe as a 3rd down back but could see more action with Torain a bit nicked up.

CLEVELAND BROWNS at NO SAINTS: BROWNS: As if it couldn't get worse, Massoqoui and Cribbs went down with injuries. Massoqoui seems more serious as he may have a concussion and was down for a bit before getting up. Cribbs is a gamer and it wouldn't surprise me if he plays. McCoy probably gets the start, but he is facing an uphill battle against a NO pass Defense that ranks 7th and likes to bring the heat. NO brought 8 and even 9 men up against the Bucs last week and should have no problem being effective again. Hillis says he will be fine after getting banged up as well but will see too many Saints in his way to be effective.
SAINTS: Quite simply, a great match up for Brees and co. whom will be facing the Browns 21st pass defense and 23rd Run defense. Chris Ivory should get the start again and is a good bet to hit 100 yards. Look for Colston to get his this week after not having a huge day while everyone else did against the Bucs.

The Saints should roll over the Browns...NO 32-CLE 13.

FANTASY STARTS: BROWNS: Watson (7 for 60yds. 1 TD) Hillis (17 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
SAINTS: EVERYBODY!!! Just be wary of Devery Henderson who continues to look phased out since Bush' injury.
SLEEPER: Julius Jones....The Saints should be trying to be respectable and run often in the 4th, giving Ivory some rest and Jones garbage time that could result in a score. Betts is a possibility here too depending on which back Payton wants to get a better look at.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at TENNESSEE TITANS: EAGLES: Kolb gets the nod as Vick still lingers and all of a sudden Reid seems to be easing off the Vick is the starter rhetoric. The Eagles will be without Deshaun Jackson who suffered memory loss and is a good bet to lose decent time possibly after the bye week. Jason Avant becomes the pick up you want since he's a good possession guy and does have the ability to break one. Celek gets a big boost since he already is Kolb's go to guy in the red zone and of course Maclin is a must start. The Titans have the 23rd ranked pass defense and 8th rush defense so look for a lot of success through the air.
TITANS: Vince Young got away with only a knee sprain but is iffy for Sunday as it stands. Collins looked like he hasn't missed a beat, and should get the start even if Young feels good to go. Scaife seemed to actually play better with Collins and gets a little boost here since Britt will be facing the Eagles 9th rated pass defense. Tennessee will...run the ball, especially against a lower tier rush defense like the Eagles. Look for a lot of ground game, ball control to keep Kolb off the field.

The Titans are hot right now and looking for three straight as are the Eagles. This will be an interesting game and higher scoring than most people would expect since both teams strengths play to each others weaknesses. While the CJ run game will eat clock and move the ball, I give the edge to the Eagles who have a stronger pass game and may force a rusty Collins into a turnover or two which decides the game. Collins looked good last week, but it was the Jags. PHI 28-TEN 24

FANTASY STARTS: EAGLES: Celek (6 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Maclin (8 for 100 yds. 1 TD) McCoy (14 for 60 yds. 1 TD) TITANS: CJ (16 for 110 yds. 2 TD) Britt (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Scaife ( 5 for 55 yds.)
SLEEPER: Jason Avant PHI....He will see enough targets and if the Titans force coverage on Maclin he will get a lions share of the yardage with a score.

BUFFALO BILLS at BALTIMORE RAVENS: BILLS: Fred Jackson is expected to get the ball in his hands more as Buffalo realizes he is their best option as CJ Spiller develops. Unfortunately, he will face 8 man fronts since Baltimore has the 3rd rated pass defense and is capable of keeping the Bills receivers in check with man to man coverage. There really doesn't seem to be many positives for the Bills this week as the Ravens defensive strengths fit well with the Bills strengths. However, S. Johnson will be the one to watch as he has the speed and ability to make the Ravens pay if they get over zealous.
RAVENS: The Ravens are actually middle of the pack in both offensive categories and face a Bills team that does rank 10th against the pass and will focus on Boldin without having to worry about Todd Heap since he looks to miss a game after a helmet to helmet hit and possible concussion. Regardless, the Bills are dead last against the run and will need help up front if they want to try to stop Rice which will lead to Boldin getting his.

The Ravens should not allow a let down and will come out making sure the Bills have their backs against the wall early. BAL 28-BUFF 17.

FANTASY STARTS: BILLS: S. Johnson (6 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Jackson (15 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
RAVENS: Flacco (280 yds. 2 TD) Rice (15 for 100 yds. 1 TD) Boldin (6 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Mason ( 5 for 90 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: W. Mcgahee....after getting zero touches last week, Ray Rice is a prime candidate to get rest after leaving a mark on this worst rated run defense allowing McGahee a good amount of touches.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at MIAMI DOLPHINS: STEELERS: Roethlisberger was no doubt hungry and had a great match up against the Browns during his return. While he will be prepared this week, he faces a much better pass defense in Miami ranked 12th against the pass, and he is on the road for the first time. The Dolphins are a well balanced team defensively, ranking 16th against the run. Big Ben does have the weapons to expose the Dolphins, but Miami is quick and will be his first real challenge of the year. Even against Cleveland there were moments where you saw the little rust and the adjustment to throwing to Wallace. Mendenhall should be called on to relieve that pressure but also will face a decent challenge on the road. Ben's conditioning will also be tested in what is expected to be 90 degree heat with the good old Florida humidity.
DOLPHINS: Henne and the team are coming off a huge confidence booster after beating Green Bay on the road and will no doubt be ready for the Steelers as a result. The Steelers are 1st against the run which will limit the Dolphins 14th run offense. However, the Steelers are 24th against the pass and facing a Henne that will have more steadiness throwing the ball. Marshall should be in for a good day, and the emergence of Bess and Hartline will be an issue for the Steelers.

My upset of the week, Miami's pass game steps up two weeks straight and Ben comes back to earth after an easy opening game. MIA 23-PITT 20.

FANTASY STARTS: STEELERS: Wallace (5 for 80 yds.) Ward (7 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Miller (4 for 50 yds. 1 TD) Mendenhall ( 16 for 80 yds. 1 TD) DOLPHINS: Bess (5 for 60 yds 1 TD) Hartline (4 for 50 yds. 1 TD) Marshall (7 for 85 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Fasano...the Dolphins should be in a position where they throw often to win and Fasano will find room in the middle of the field possibly getting either Bess' or Hartline's score instead of them when it gets inside the ten.

ST. LOUIS RAMS at TAMPA BAY BUCS: RAMS: They got their biggest win of the year without their best receiver as Danario Alexander looks to be the newest rookie sensation. However, the Rams have yet to win on the road and have only traveled to Oakland and Detroit. This will be the Rams second game outdoors so far all year. Bradford continues to make a case for ROY and looks to have a new weapon in Alexander who came from the practice squad and showed his speed, burning SD for a TD pass. Tampa does have run stop issues, ranking 31st against the run. They lead the league in interceptions, but rank 16th against the pass. Steven Jackson must be salivating at this match up with good reason.
BUCS: After playing a great defensive game against the Bengals, the Bucs as they often do came out looking equally as bad against the Saints. Part of it was Drew Brees understanding of the Bucs defense, facing them twice a year for quite some time, and part was blown assignments in the secondary. They still have only 1 sack in four of their games, and are abysmal at stopping the run. Their run game has been as bad, ranking 27th and the loss of Huggins should have the Bucs turning to Graham who has always been reliable. Mike Williams is a good play here as the Rams rank 20th against the pass. The wild card player here is Stroughter, whom the Rams will have trouble accounting for in the middle of the field.

This could be an interesting game, coming down to the 4th quarter. The key here is if the Bucs secondary can hold Rams receivers in check using man and cover 1, allowing extra bodies to guard against Steven Jackson. Since the Rams have yet to win a road contest and Alexander's talents will be no surprise.......BUCS 23-RAMS 21

FANTASY STARTS: RAMS: Jackson (17 for 110yds. 2 TD) Amendola (11 for 90 yds. 1 TD)
BUCS: M. Williams (6 for 90 yds 1 TD) Stroughter ( 5 for 80 yds.) Winslow (4 for 50 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: E. Graham....if his hammy is healthy this week, watch for Graham to get a good share of the carries if Williams comes out struggling again. The Bucs will probably allow Cadillac two series to see where he is and then make an adjustment.

SF 49ERS at CAROLINA PANTHERS: SAN FRAN: Finally, a win, though it was at home against Jason Campbell whom was horrible last week with a 10.7 passer rating. The win also came at the expense of Vernon Davis whom suffered a strained right knee and is day to day. Crabtree has settled in as I called once they made the change from Jimmy Raye at OC. Despite the win, don't be fooled into thinking San Fran found it's passing game. They were struggling early and were still sporadic passing wise. They face a Carolina team coming off a bye with extra prep time that ranks 5th against the pass. Where they will have great success is in the run where Carolina is 26th. Expect heavy doses of Frank Gore with average at best passing numbers.
PANTHERS: Matt Moore gets the call at QB. Carolina has opted to protect their franchise QB Clausen and not feed him to the wolves. However, like Gore, Williams and Stewart should have productive days against the SF 20th ranked run defense. Steve Smith did practice on Wednesday, so it may open things a bit for Carolina as San Francisco is 11th against the pass. He's always been a good healer, and should be good to go Sunday. San Francisco ranks 10th in total yards allowed despite their run D problems and is an indication of how they will give up plays but do have success holding opponents from long drives.

This game looks like toss up, you have two teams that love to run the ball. I am a big fan of teams coming off a bye week facing close match ups. SF does have more weapons, but if Davis is unable to go, this becomes a dead even race. Carolina has yet to put up more than 7 pts. at home and SF has maxed out at 14 pts. on the road. Carolina wins a close one that sees both teams score more than their norms.
CAR 24-SF 20.

FANTASY STARTS: SF: Gore (17 for 90 yds. 1 TD/ 4 for 40 yds.) Crabtree (5 for 70 yds 1 TD)
PANTHERS: Williams (13 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Stewart (9 for 50 yds. 1 TD) S. Smith (4 for 60yds. 1 TD)

ARIZONA CARDINALS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: ARIZONA: The Cards are coming off a bye where hopefully Beannie Wells had yet another week to get healthy and in shape to perform. Max Hall received a ton of credit for their win versus NO but his actual play was far from better than Anderson. Hall does have the luxury of facing the 30th ranked pass defense, but is in Seattle where better teams find it hard to win. Seattle is 2nd against the run so despite Wells return don't expect much.
SEAHAWKS: A huge win in Chicago may be just what this team needed to propel them to that next level of play they have been lacking. It should be easy for the Hawks to execute against Arizona as they are 26th and 29th against the Pass and Run respectively. Mike Williams continues his return from the depths of obscurity under his college coach. Marshawn Lynch had some very telling carries last week which seem to point in the direction of him being the goal line/red zone back.

While this will be a hard fought divisional game, the Seahawks always find ways to win at home and Sunday should be no different against a lesser opponent. The game should be closer than expected though since they will get Arizona's best effort after a bye week. Take the points with Arizona if you're a betting man. SEA 24-ARI 21.

FANTASY STARTS: ARI: Fitzgerald (7 for 100yds. 1 TD) Wells (16 for 60yds. 1 TD)
SEA: M. Williams (4 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Butler (3 for 50 yds. 1 TD) Forsett (12 for 60yds./3 for 20 yds.) Lynch ( 9 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: B. Patrick ARI....Patrick hat five receptions last week and as everyone knows a TE is a young QB's best friend. Expect Patrick to see about as many catches again with a score as the attention focus' on Fitz come red zone time.

OAKLAND RAIDERS at DENVER BRONCOS: RAIDERS: oh what a difference a week makes. Oakland pounded SD defensively two weeks ago and then comes up flat against the 49ers. Campbell may be out this week leaving Kyle Boller at QB who actually looked very good in pre-season. Believe it or not, he may be the best QB on this team in my eyes. He is more of a pocket presence and has been waiting for a shot at becoming a starter in the NFL again. I believe he actually helps the value of the Raiders WR's, but especially Z. Miller who will be his security blanket. McFadden will test the hammy out this week and looks close to a return. He and Bush should see plenty of yardage against the Bronco 25th ranked run defense.
BRONCOS: A heart breaker against the Jets last week will have the Broncos up and ready for a divisional match against the Raiders. The Broncos horrible run game actually broke the century mark in a collective effort that saw Tebow rush for his first score. If Moreno is going to have a good game this year it should come against the Raiders as they are 30th against the run. This will make it easier against the Raiders tough secondary and is the key to winning this game. Orton targeted Thomas heavily in the second half and seems to be his go to guy in the red zone.

The Broncos will get the Raiders best shot this week. However, the Broncos have three great WR's and that may be one more than the Raiders can handle despite their tough pass D. In the end, it should be the Denver run game of all things that makes the difference and forces the Raiders loss. DEN 28- OAK 21.

FANTASY STARTS: OAK: McFadden (12 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Bush (10 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Miller (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Murphy (4 for 50 yds.) DENVER: Moreno (15 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Gaffney ( 4 for 60 yds.) Lloyd (6 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Thomas (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Heyward Bey....With Murphy drawing Champ Bailey, Heyward Bey should be the one who has the most success out of the two Raider wide outs...if he shows up that is.

NE PATRIOTS at SD CHARGERS: PATRIOTS: New Englands new dink and dunk pass offense had success last week against Baltimore and the emergence of Woodhead is for real. Especially in this new offense, Woodhead should thrive. This new offense should be the perfect fit going against the Chargers 1st ranked pass Defense and they don't allow many big downfield plays. The Chargers are just as stout against the run 5th and given that NE has a weak run game we could see Brady air it out 40-50 times this week. All the NE receivers should bring in decent numbers due to sheer work load, but especially A. Hernandez.
CHARGERS: Another loss, this time at the Rams has a bitter taste in the franchise's mouth. They may have lost Floyd for this game and Gates looks like he will play through a toe injury. Regardless, SD does have enough talent to be effective against the Pats 29th pass defense. Expect to see a heavy work load for Mathews this week and for him to be effective. Mike Tolbert only saw three carries last week but did score. Due to the Pats weak rush defense 17th, I see Mathews getting the goal line touch as they need him to get going.

This will be one of the better games of the weekend. NE makes the East coast to West coast trip which is always a hard one. While they will be in the game, the Chargers have just too much to lose at this point and their backs are against the wall. Their defense is the difference maker.
SD 28- PATS 20.

FANTASY STARTS: NE: Brady (260 yds. 2 TD) Welker (7 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Woodhead (90 total yards) Branch (4 for 50 yds. 1 TD) SD: Rivers (300yds 2 TD) Mathews (16 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Gates (8 for 90 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Buster Davis...with Floyd out, Davis becomes the field stretcher and connects on one deep.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS at GREEN BAY PACKERS: VIKINGS: Finally out of their slump, the Vikes looked effective against Dallas and could be the spark they needed. Moss gets another week of practice with Favre which is needed. He still looks a bit uncomfortable out there but the more time that passes will develop their connection. The Packers rank 21st against the run so Peterson could have success her and will be a big part of the game to keep the ball out of Rogers hands.
PACKERS: Green Bay defense gets a boost with the return of Matthews this week and they will need it facing a Viking offense slowly coming into their own with Moss in the fold. Green Bay had a let down last week against Miami and the loss of Finley with Driver's injury slowing him down has had it's effect on this once explosive offense. The run game allowed the trade deadline to pass without getting help. Don't expect much either as the Vikes rank 11th against the run and are even better against the pass.

While Green Bay needs this game desperately, there seems to be a lack of confidence surrounding this team. The lack of any run offense has had big impact on the offense overall and the Vikings many weapons are going to cause issues for the Pack. I think the Pack actually lose another one at home. VIKES 24-GB 21.

FANTASY STARTS: VIKINGS: Moss ( 5 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Harvin ( 4 for 50 yds/ 2 rush for 25 yds.) Peterson (16 for 90 yds. 1 TD) PACK: Rogers (250 yds. 2 TD) Jennings (7 for 90 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: D. Lee...after being held in check last week the Pack need that TE position to be a difference maker. Lee should become more involved and score as the Viking defense clamps down against the run in the red zone.

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

What We Learned Sunday

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: David Gerrard needs to feel uncomfortable with his job. Since the signing of Edwards, Gerrard has looked like the guy Byron Leftwich was run out of town for. Remember when he stole the job from Byron with his stellar play? Ironically, Gerrard has become quite similar to him. Ever since being the unquestioned QB he has played like someone with nothing to lose. Now, with someone breathing down his back (in theory at least) Gerrard has taken it up a notch. Mercedes Lewis is his favorite target....Lewis spoke in preseason how it was the first time he stayed in Jacksonville year round just so he and Gerrard could work together and it is showing. Lewis tied Jacksonville's TE record for TD's in a season this week and there should be more to come. Only play Mike Simms-Walker in fantasy when he makes a stink about not being involved. So far the two times he's complained are the two times he scored and put up good numbers. MJD is getting better, but he is still not what we have been accustomed to. He has always been able to beat teams even when they stack the box, but this year he seems to have lost just a bit. I think he is playing through a minor injury that is going to require surgery in the off-season but the official status is that he has none.

BUFFALO BILLS: They are much better with Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Defense just can't stop anybody and will be this team's killer game after game. Fred Jackson is the back you want here although Spiller will have his games here and there. Lee Evans dropped 84 yds. with a TD and is this team's top threat at WR. Consistency will be the problem though as they play in one of the toughest divisions. The best way to make decisions on when to use Bills players is obvious...only against weak and middle of the road defenses. 

DENVER BRONCOS: Brandon Lloyd is for real and found a system he actually excels in. He seems to have found a second life in pass happy Denver and is a dependable start every week. As for Gaffney and Royal, it is a roll of the dice week to week who will be the number two worthy of starting. Denver has no run game and it will lose them games....you have to be able to run the ball in the NFL and until Denver finds a way to do that, they will continue to fail against good secondaries. When your top rusher only gains 26 yds. you are not going to win. Kyle Orton is a top tier QB....zero run game means passing all day and Orton has done just that, but also looked very effective. 

BALTIMORE RAVENS: They have too many ways to beat you....In a game where no receiver surpassed 58 yds, Ray Rice ran for 133 yds and two scores. With the talent they have at receiver, any one of them can explode on any play. When you need to stay vigilant against them and keep Ray Rice at bay it becomes an issue very few teams will be able to handle this year. Couple that with a top defense, the Offense can afford off days and still win the game. Baltimore will make the playoffs and win the division.

KC CHIEFS: They finally came back down to earth this week although they didn't make it easy for Manning. This team is for real and have the ability to make a run for the division this year. The defense played great, but if you give Peyton enough chances, he will eventually make you pay. Even if it's just putting together drives that result in crucial field goals. The Chiefs beat themselves in my eyes. Bowe and Moeaki both let scores get away from them and critical 3rd down passes were dropped. Cassel actually looked good and put the ball where it was on the receivers to do something with it. They just didn't. Jamaal Charles is the fantasy back you want here out of the two and deserves to get the 16-8 carry split he did in this game every week. While he wasn't able to break away for one this week, he is the more explosive and dynamic ball carrier here. Thomas Jones was running behind a great offensive line in NY and while KC has a good one they are not the Jets. Other than Moeaki at TE, no Chief receiver will be trust worthy this year. Sell Bowe now if you can or wait until his next good outing and get value for him.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS:  Manning had an off day is what you will hear, but it was more the result of a KC team that has a legitimate defense and some coaches that know what they're doing. Addai went down yet again with a shoulder injury and Mike Hart took over for him scoring the only TD of the day. Addai has only had one good game and should be on his way out next year. Both Donald Brown and Hart have more upside, but neither is a good fantasy candidate. Reggie Wayne will still get his solid and steady numbers every week regardless if Peyton is spreading the ball around. Which makes the question "Who is the WR outside of Wayne to have?" Garcon returned and had one more reception than Collie with nine more yards. While this was not Peyton's best day, it's going to be hard to know who he will look for in the red zone. Hopefully next week will answer questions, but the return of Garcon makes things murky. If you can still get some high value for Collie it may be time to sell him before it's too late. The team seems committed to Garcon despite Collie's season so far but we won't know how this plays out for another week or two. Better to sell than be stuck with a guy who is going to be a borderline number three WR.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: Maybe the Bucs are that good or maybe the Bengals are that bad. Regardless, we know for sure that 3-1 isn't all luck and that the defense in Tampa is back. They forced Carson into three turnovers in crucial moments, twice in the final minutes of the game that led to the Bucs winning on the road in Cinci. Mike Williams is this teams clear cut WR stud gaining 99 yds and a score. Aurelious Benn made an impact in this game as well, moving the chains and coming up with some key catches. As the season goes on, these two with Winslow could become a great trio. Morgan Spurlock keeps making key catches in crucial situations and Sammy Stroughter is dependable as they come. There is a young core here that is familiar of New Orleans three years ago. As long as Freeman is healthy, this team will be competitive in every game. The run game on the other hand has much to desire. Despite Raheem Morris' comments that Hugging and Blount would get more carries, he stayed committed to Cadillac whom again averaged only 3 ypr. At some point this team needs to realize that Huggins and Blount need to touch the ball more in order to beat opponents throughout the game and not just in the end. The defense is playing fast and opportunistic despite the lack of splash plays up front. They've had the pressure but are always a step short of a sack.

CINCINNATI BENGALS: While Palmer will get the flack for this game, it was his receivers that deserve a public beating. All the Bengals wide outs dropped key passes that either led to punts or turnovers. Palmer placed the ball in good spots where there was no excuse for the drops.While he did make two bad judgements on balls thrown, the Bengals had chances to score and move the ball but drops killed it. Cedric Benson pounded the Bucs for 144 yds but failed to score. The Bengals are playing nowhere to their potential and every week seems like some aspect of their team refuses to show up. Expected to compete for the division this year, the Bengals need some continuity and discipline. Everything we're seeing out of them points to Marvin Lewis. A change could be in store next year. The Bye week couldn't come at a better time for a team that needs to regroup.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: The offense is as potent as they come and the defense is strong yet this teams continues to beat themselves because of special teams play. Two blocked punts, one returned for a score the other a safety. The three fumbles hurt as well, but it was the special teams play early that set the tone for the Oakland defense and had them buzzing all game. Losing to Oakland has to hurt that much more since they not only lost to a divisional foe but lost the grip on the division on a day where Denver and KC lost. This is the second time special teams play have been a key factor in a loss. Malcom Floyd is the new Vincent Jackson...213 yards? Against the Oakland secondary? Floyd has Rivers trust and is by all means a weekly start who carries top tier value. Mike Tolbert scored the only rushing TD and looks to hold the role of red zone back with a healthy amount of carries as well. At this point, Tolbert carries more value than Mathews. 

OAKLAND RAIDERS: Gradkowski left the game with an injury and Campbell seems to have won his starting job back regardless of how bad the injury is. He played a smart game and made precise passes in between the coverage where only his receivers could catch the ball. While Mike Bush didn't show McFadden speed, he did provide that hard nose running style expected and pounded his way to 104 yds. and a score. The Raiders have the talent defensively, but need consistency on offense if they're going to compete in the division. This could be the game they needed to build confidence, especially for the offensive line who actually looked a bit better this week. Zach Miller and Louis Murphy are still the only two ball catchers worth starting in fantasy, Miller being an every week play and Murphy nothing more than a flex depending on opponent.

CLEVELAND BROWNS: Seneca Wallace went down with an injury and Peyton Hillis had appeared on the injury report late last week which led to a 28 yard day for him. With Wallace expected to be out, Delhomme hurt as it is and Hillis nursing an injury that obviously affects his ability, the Browns are in shambles. Depending on how Hillis responds this week to treatment, no Browns players are starter worthy. Unless clear information comes out this week stating that Hillis is fully healthy, he may be a bench next week. 

ATLANTA FALCONS: Atlanta continues to be the Turner White show and it continues to work. This is one of those teams who may only have limited resources but they know how to use them. Turner rushed for 140 yds. and White had 101 with a score. Matt Ryan continues to be a marginal fantasy QB and Gonzales has fallen off the map completely. Outside of the two mentioned, nobody can really be trusted. They are a team that can be tough when all aspects are firing but are very beatable when either Turner or White are kept in check.

DETROIT LIONS: All those close losses and bad beats led to frustration that was released on the Rams this week. Megatron and Burleson both caught TD passes, the defense was swarming and special teams special. While I expected  a Lions win, nobody expected it to be so lopsided. The Lions continue to be one of the best losing teams and can put together a good run if the defense can come out like it did today. Best and Megatron continue to be the only two weekly starts in fantasy, but Burleson when healthy has proven he is a threat and should be considered a flex play every week depending on the match up.

ST. LOUIS RAMS: It was one of those games where everything went wrong. Especially losing Mike Clayton to a knee injury. Without Clayton, the Rams reverted to their old ways and it became the SJax show. If Clayton is out for any extended time it's going to spell bad news for the Rams. Amendola is a great second option, but he's not meant to be a primary WR. Especially not in fantasy unless it's a PPR league. Jackson continues to show he will get his regardless. Until we know on Clayton, Jackson is the only play here next week.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS: The Skins are quickly getting a reputation for being the most physical team in the NFL. Last week it was Vick and McCoy, this week its was Finley, Lee, and Rogers they banged up. Washington is by no means winning pretty and each game could have easily been a loss as it was a win. The leadership of Mcnabb seems to be paying off however as he continues to be this teams foundation and is showing poise under pressure. Though Santana Moss put up 118 yards, nobody on this team is lighting it up each week and fantasy plays should be made on a weekly match up only basis. The closest you have here to an every day guy is Cooley who will get his touches since Mcnabb loves to use the TE. Moss is a close second, but not a guarantee regardless of how he did this week.

GREEN BAY PACKERS: The loss of Finley made the passing game much more predictable but part of it was Washingtons pass defense. Brandon Jackson had his best game, posting 115yds. but is still far from dependable as a starting RB. The Packers keep coming up short the last few weeks and teams are sitting back on Rogers not allowing the big play. While Jackson did have a great game, the Packers need a dependable back who can carry more of a load so Rogers doesn't have to throw 50 times a game. Finley's injury did look serious so stay tuned on the MRI results. Get ready to pick up Lee if the news is as bad as I think it is.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: Victims of the biggest upset, the Saints have been a much lesser team than they were last year after five games. The receivers just seem to be playing a bit slower and and the plays that were there last year are missing. Meachem hasn't been a huge factor, Henderson has been hit or miss, and Colston has been far below expectations. Also, we're seeing how much of a factor Reggie Bush was in this offensive game plan. The fact that Brees was playing at less than 100%  and no Pierre Thomas also has to be taken into account here. Right now Brees is the only solid, dependable fantasy play every week. Of course in this offense there will be value every week for the receivers, but none of them are as readable as last year.

ARIZONA CARDINALS: Max Hall is getting more credit that he deserves since it was the defense that won this game despite his mistakes. The running game continues to be below average and Fitzgerald continues to be dependable but far less than a fantasy stud. Jay Feely and Fitzgerald are the only two weekly starts and while this was a good win, it can't be expected to happen again. This team will fall back to earth quickly.

CAROLINA PANTHERS: No Steve Smith hurt them as bad as expected and both Williams and Stewart found a hard time getting anywhere against Chicago's defense. This team is bad but young. As long as Steve Smith is out, defenses will be able to stack the box without fear and will limit what the backs can do. Williams and Stewart are officially only starter worthy if you have a bye week or the run defense you are facing is that bad.

CHICAGO BEARS: No Jay Cutler, no problem. The Bears caught a break this week after losing Cutler to a concussion by facing a team that is rebuilding and nowhere close to the Bears talent level. Cutler should return next week and they will have two more good match ups coming at home in Seattle and Washington. Not much has changed here in terms of fantasy value.

NY GIANTS: Don't look now, but the Giants defense is playing up to their potential, feeding off of last week's performance against Chicago. The Giants held Arian Foster to 28 yds. rushing and caused headache for Matt Schaub. Hakeem Nicks has proved he will be a complete stud against lesser secondaries and is the clear cut number one receiver. Steve Smith finally woke up and looks to be a decent number three receiver from here on out. After last week, there seems to be a trend starting where Bradshaw gains the yardage and Bradshaw is called upon for the red zone duties. Jacobs got the only rushing score and this may be something to pay close attention to. Jacobs still isn't fantasy start worthy but what it does to Bradshaws value is more important. It may be time to unload Bradshaw while his value is at what I expect to be it's peak if Jacobs stays healthy.

HOUSTON TEXANS: The whole team struggled and this defense is starting to cause problems now that they are facing defenses that can keep Foster and Schaub in check. The good news here is that Andre Johnson got his and has proven once again what an amazing healer he is and his ability to play through injury. The fantasy plays are as normal here, but Foster owners should pick up Ward while they can as he is clearly showing he would be next in line.

DALLAS COWBOYS: I said early in the season that Phillips may be a candidate to lose his job by mid-season, and if things don't turn around next week vs. Minnesota I expect Jones to pull the trigger and hand the job open to Garrett who has been the favorite for a while now. Felix Jones backed me up and had his best game proving that the best fantasy analysis of this team is to listen to Jerry Jones. I was high on Roy Williams in the preseason only to fall off the wagon after the first two weeks but am officially back on. He has turned it around with Dez Bryant breathing down his neck. The Cowboys continue to not utilize Bryants potential though it's understandable considering the mouths Romo has to feed. Roy Williams has elevated to a legitimate start but be cautious against better secondaries.

TENNESSEE TITANS: Vince Young continues to baffle me on knowing how to read the guy. One week up the next bad. He needs to prove some type of consistency before he can be a trustworthy start every week. Until then he should stay as a back up on your team. Kenny Britt is showing consistency and could become quite a threat along with Nate Washington if Young can find a balance throwing the ball. Even if that does happen, the CJ2K will continue to be the center piece and limit their value since they will have to make the most of their touches every game.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Just when Alex Smith looked like the player he was expected to be as time was winding down, he comes out next series and promptly ruins it. Mike Singletary's job is in jeopardy but he has stated he will stick with Alex Smith despite the short comings. Why they don't give David Carr a shot is beyond me. Alex Smith has clearly proved he will never play past a certain level and the team is hurting for it. Crabtree broke out this week and you can expect more as the pass game focus' more around him and Vernon Davis. San Fran is realizing they are better when they both touch the ball, allowing Gore some rest. The next few weeks will be interesting as to if Singletary loses his job should they lose another two games. Expect to see Carr if Smith struggles against a hot Oakland team.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Kolb looked alot better after last weeks outing but did nothing to make a case for why he should keep the job once Vick returns. McCoy surprised by showing he could play through a fractured rib as if nothing was bothering him,  rushing for 92 yards and a score. For as long as Vick is out you can bump up Celek to every week starter. Past that, Jackson, Maclin, and McCoy are the dependable starts regardless.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS: The Vikings came up short yet again, but there is much to be excited about even in the loss. Moss made an immediate impact catching a TD from Favre, and Harvin was able to excell back in his usual position, especially when lined up next to Moss. Peterson and Schiancoe did not have great nights although that was due to the Jets athletic Line Backers and stout run defense. The biggest concern here is why was Favre holding his throwing elbow on multiple occasions in the fourth quarter? At his age, an arm injury is the last thing you want to see. The Vikings have an interesting game next week against a team very much like them in the Cowboys. Given Dallas' weak pass defense, this could become a shoot out where it's fantasy heaven. Just stay on top of what Favre did to his elbow.

NY JETS: The Jets offense seemed to put it all together, having everyone contribute with all their play makers on the field at once. Shonn Greene rushed for a score behind LT who carried the load yet again. LT continues to defy, having a bounce in his step we haven't seen in two seasons. You have to wonder at this point if the AJ Smith battle wasn't wearing on him or if he just wanted out and figured it was best to not perform. Sanchez has evolved every week and is proving he can be trusted to throw the ball and not be babied. This only makes them that more potent now that Holmes is back. Keller had a quiet night, which is telling now that Holmes has returned and he goes back to number three option in the pass game. He will still get his red zone looks, but his numbers could take a slight hit moving forward though not enough of a hit to ever bench him.

Monday, October 4, 2010

WHAT WE LEARNED SUNDAY

NY JETS:  We learned Shonn Greene still has game despite LT being back to the stud we know. Dustin Keller worked out all off-season with Sanchez and it shows. Rex Ryan made the mistake of not trusting Sanchez to be able to throw the ball and doubting his receivers to make catches. The Jets have a new found confidence in the pass game which only makes them even more lethal. Greene and LT both put up over 110 yards and are the key to this team. If one goes down, we all know the other can handle full time duties now. The Jets have a great problem on their hands. Now temper all this with the fact it was the Bills.

BUFFALO BILLS: Ryan Fitzpatrick has ability, he just has nothing to throw to. I have been saying the Bills will not be good until they get a real QB, but Fitz sold me a bit today. The problem is he has a receiving core that is getting older and an O line that refuses to live up to it's potential. I've always had problems with the Bills front office and their decisions and  until they focus on making sound draft picks, trades and waiver signees, the Bills will continue to under achieve. Which is sad given that town loves football. Levy isn't the answer and Gailey has already proven he over values RB position too much.

GREEN BAY PACKERS: The sign of a great team is that they beat the teams they should despite getting the oppositions best shot. Rogers only threw for 181 yds but was 12 of 17 for 3 TD. The Packers are legit and should not face much opposition in getting to the Super Bowl. They are possibly the NFL's best team with New Orleans. The major concern continues to be the run game, where Jackson and Kuhn combines for under 80 yds. That will not cut it against the divisional winners come playoff time so the issue needs to be fixed NOW!

DETROIT LIONS: Much as the Rams, the Lions are explosive and are a great win less team to watch. This is the first year in recent memory where all NFL games are a blast to watch because anybody really could win. The Lions really need to buy a new rabbit foot since they continue to be victims of three or less games. Surprisingly, the drop from Stafford to Hill has not been that significant. The Lions are a competitive bunch and need to get defensive help. If they could just hold opponents they could become tangible and start pulling these games out. Considering this is the first year of all these FA signees, the Lions will be a team to be feared next year.

DENVER BRONCOS: They continue to prove they are possibly today's version of the greatest show on turf....only no turf. Orton has stunned everyone with his amazing accuracy and passing since coming to Denver. More amazing is the group of WR's. Lloyd and Gaffney are outcasts from previous teams whom were not considered number ones. Here they have new life and are putting up amazing numbers. The Broncos have no run game to speak of and will continue to pass all year. Why would you mix it up? Denver is for real, and if they could get a run game going, then sky is the limit.

TENNESSEE TITANS: Chris Johnson....,that's it. Yes the Defense is well balanced, but the pass game is not showing reflections of last season....yet. It's only four games, but Young had us all believing he would pick up on his play from last year. While he does make the plays, his lack of solid WR help and a defense that does have some holes makes for too much uncertainty week to week for this team. The Titans have been a one trick pony for too long and need to make that move on a young pocket rocket arm QB or bring in two real WR's who can help Young become better and make up his mistakes. As of now, the Titans look to wind up a .500 team.

CINCINNATI BENGALS: The signing of TO showed flashes of getting over the hurdles last year, but unlike last season it's not Carson Palmer but the run game which has gone awry. I have never been a fan of Benson because he has never strung good years together and is proving me right. Teams know who they need to focus on and once you take away the pass options, it makes this Offense become marginal. They have the weapons but if those weapons are targeted then the options become scarce. Look for the Bengals to focus on some shorter quick throw passes and the run game. So far the Bengals are far from what we all expected but do have time to turn it around.

CLEVELAND BROWNS: Seneca Wallace has become the Browns starting QB and has looked more effective than Delhomme has been the last two years. Peyton Hillis continues to prove he is for real after rushing for 102 and 1 TD. Who the leading receiver is continues to be a coin flip. The Defense continues to be undervalued and will be one to watch in the next week if you need a bye week fill in. The Browns will continue to be an unreadable team, and just as good as they looked this week, they could become the polar opposite next.

BALTIMORE RAVENS: Proving they can do it without their best RB healthy, the Ravens used a group effort to rush for 70 yards on one of the league's best defenses. The real story was Flacco and his receivers. My pick to win because of the fact the Titans would not be able to cover all the Raven receivers, Flacco passed for 256 yards. Yes, he only had one TD, but it was the one that mattered most. Mason,Boldin,Housh and Heap combined for 232 of those yards with Mason accounting for 80 and Housh catching the winning TD with time running down. The Ravens are back to form after a slow start so once Rice is back to 100% they will be a pick your poison team. Ray Lewis continues to defy his doubters and the Defense has been showing it's depth after losing multiple players to Rex Ryan and NY.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: While Batch didn't throw a whole lot, his throws were confident and overall he managed the game well. With Ben now returning, the Steelers must be beyond pleased with how Batch and Dixon held the fort, going 3-1. Wallace is just waiting to use his speed and Ben will take advantage of it. If you thought the Steelers were a scary team before, wait until Ben knocks the rust off and gets settled in. Mendenhall can no longer be doubted and is here to stay, announcing it with a 79 yd. 2 TD day. His speed to the outside looked amazing compared to last year and he seems quicker overall. With a QB threat now, I can only see him producing even better numbers.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: Another one I saw coming, but not this bad! Forsett had another solid game, but the Seabags continue to play bipolar ball depending on if they are home or away. While St. Louis is no longer a laughing stock and is at the top in total points allowed, the Seahawks will need to figure out how to win on the road. A new coach, new youth on the field, but the same story every year. Regardless, there is no excuse for a team with this much talent to only put up a field goal with 27 minutes of ball control. This is where Pete's contract comes into play. It's been four games so let's see exactly what changes he makes to correct the road issues. Look for news of some type of scheme or personnel changes this week.

ST. LOUIS RAMS: I can no longer say the Rams are the best losing team to watch anymore, now that they have his .500 on the year. After catching a little flack for taking Bradford who was coming off injury, the front office is looking like they actually know what they are doing. They took Bradford anyway, and signed Mark Clayton who has turned this team around and given Bradford a legitimate target. Once Luarent Robinson gets healthy, this team will then become a real challenge. The Rams have continued to have success despite the opposition knowing exactly who Bradford is targeting so imagine when you add another factor to the equation. Steven Jackson's health is the key for this team since he keeps defenses honest, not allowing them to sit back on Bradford. Until they sign a legitimate back up, as Jackson goes, so will this team.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Another one of my upset picks, the Niner played a much more effective game overall with Alex Smith going 21 for 32 and Gore totaling 137 yds. They tried to spread the ball out more to their talent, but turnovers is what continues to kill them. Clements had this game sealed for them and let it slip away. The Defense, which was projected to be in the upper levels plays well but always seems to give up the big play that winds up costing them. Of course it is hard to shut down the opposition when your team continues to turn the ball over more than your squad produces, but the defense is what it going to have to carry this team. I do like the direction they took, simplifying things a bit and getting talent the ball, but fact remains they need more help. They are a team who feels only one player away from a 4-0 record.

ATLANTA FALCONS: The Falcons showed mettle in this one, fighting till the end after playing nothing but comeback for four quarters. Matt Bryant's 43 yarder to win is nothing new to him, having done it throughout his career. Matt Ryan still has yet to prove he can win a game when it's all on him, and continues to make turnovers. Given the Defense they were facing I can forgive Turner's 50 yard performance, but where is Tony Gonzalez? With Jenkins missing yet another game, Gonzo has failed to step up and be a valid number two threat. Maybe he has finally hit the age wall, but he has got to produce more that 41 on 7 touches. Jenkins is by no means the answer to the teams offensive woes, but he will make things easier on Ryan when he returns. This team is being led by their defense and the turnovers they create. They are a fast defense, and I think under rated so far by most people. This unit can compete with the best of them, but as we see with SF, your offense needs to help out too. Luckily, the Falcons have won despite their struggles and are only going to get better. This is a team that has the potential to give the Saints a run for the division.

CAROLINA PANTHERS: As if Clausen's development wasn't already an issue, Steve Smith went down with a high ankle sprain and will likely miss time. As expected, Fox limited the rookie's role and tried to pound it out on the ground. Williams had his second solid game, posting 86 yards and a TD while Stewart totaled 21 yds on the ground but caught a 55 yard pass for a TD. This was a team starting to look like they were finding a path and the injury to Smith will weaken them by allowing teams to fully focus on the run game. There are no legitimate WR's here past Smith and it looks like more of the same is to be expected until he returns. Clausen showed he has a great arm but accuracy and reads were an issue. He's a rookie and it's to be expected. Fox needs to let him take his bumps now so that he will be polished up next year. Benching him makes no sense at this point and would be the worst move.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: The Saints used the combination of Ivory and Betts to fill in for Pierre Thomas with good results, producing 114 yards on the ground. Though Ivory did fumble, he looks to be the lead candidate for Pierre Thomas' relief role. Brees had an off game for him, throwing only 1 TD on 275 yards but was able to pull it out. These divisional games always produce the best shot from an opponent, especially when you're the defending champs. The Saints took what has probably been their biggest fight yet and survived. They are doing it despite not quite having the same swagger on defense a year ago which is a good sign but also shows they can be vulnerable.

OAKLAND RAIDERS: Gradkowski's 3 turnovers wound up hurting them as the Raiders lost a close one. The good news is how they were able to hang with the league's top offense despite any production from Murphy and Bey. Miller was able to carry the load, showing he is one of the most under rated TE's in the NFL. The dreaded McFadden injury came to town, with him coming up lame after a run. Initial reports it's a hamstring which isn't exactly the best injury for your top back. Bush seems to be healthy and just in time. He carried 7 times for 40 yards with a TD and should be able to carry the run game while McFadden is out. Regardless, this offensive line needs major work as they continue allowing penetration during critical moments. McFadden was keeping defenses honest but without him teams may start focusing in on the pass more making life harder for Gradkowski. As if it wasn't hard enough already. News on the severity of the McFadden injury should be clear by Tuesday.

HOUSTON TEXANS: Schaub was mostly held in check by the Raiders corners, throwing for 192 and 2 TD's, but the Texans continue to find ways to win. Namely, Arian Foster. Andre Johnson being held out seemed to have little effect on containing Foster as he combined for 187 total yards and 2 TD's. While they were able to outscore the Raiders, the Texans will need Johnson to return quickly. Jacoby Jones went down with an injury and Kevin Walter averaged less than 9 yards a catch. This offense always seems to have a player step up when they need it but it's the defense that is going to cost them in the long run. Mario Williams is in beast mode again, but the secondary is a patchwork who looked primed for a turn around this year and have been anything but lousy. This is a major issue that will need to get fixed if the Texans are to compete in a year where the Colts have started slow and given them the advantage.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: David Gerrard saved his job for now, not turning the ball over while throwing for two TD's and 163 yards along with rushing for 44 yards and a TD. I called him to be playing with fire under his ass, but now that he has produced it's just as likely he will vanish again. Coming out of exile though was MJD who rushed for 105 and a TD. I don't know what Simms-Walker did to Gerrard, but it must've been pretty bad since he was targeted just once and finished with goose eggs. The Jags are prone to feeding off wins like this and could string a few together if MJD is healthy and can continue to be productive like today. He is the heartbeat of this team and dictates the game flow. Gerrard is by no means safe and I would look for Del Rio to give Edwards a lot of reps with the first team from here on out to keep Gerrard on his toes and the fire under his ass burning.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Reggie Wayne exploded for 196, Addai scores twice with 63 rushing yards, and Peyton throws two TD's.....So how do you still lose? Oh, no defense. The Colts have serious problems on defense and need to make a change quickly. So far their loss to Houston and now Jacksonville are results of a defense that can't hold when they need to. The Colts have enough Offensive talento part with and bring in some help for the secondary. Defense will be the big mantra this week and look for some moves to take place. Austin Collie? Yes, he came back down to Earth but is still a viable play. Buy low on him if you can because he should be a feast or famine guy.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: We Learned Kolb would be loving every minute of sweet vengeance....if he could have completed a pass. Yes he was coming off the bench, but this was his game to shine and he had major accuracy problems, missing guys badly. Early work is that VIck has rib cartilage injury and Leshaun McCoy has a fractured rib. Damn Washington did a number on them. Wait to hear the severity of each but it sounds like these are at least one week missed injuries.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS: Portis popped his groin, again. Thankfully, the Skins have Ryan Torain who was on his way to becoming the lead back anyway. Portis' time should be over after this season and I think could be dealt while he still has some kind of value. Santana Moss was ignored most the game because of pressure and coverage, leaving Mcnabb throwing for a measly 125 yds and a score. Anthony Armstrong made his one catch work, scoring on a 57 yd TD. Cooley continues to be the only source of Offense you can depend on. The Skins lose at St. Louis then win at Philly? Go figure. This is a big win for the team, showing they can pull it out even when having an off day. The Defense continues to show potential of dominance but need to put it together consistently. This division is officially for the taking.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: Am I happy the owner of Ryan Mathews rejected my selling high on Tolbert. Forced to start him due to a bye, Tolbert rewarded anyone in the same dilemma handsomely. over 100yds and a score in a game where Mathews was "back". I actually think Tolbert will continue to have value going forward and has earned more than just short yardage duties. This could become a 60-40 split and Tolbert has shown that he can put up numbers on just ten touches, raking up 80 yards in the first half alone. It will be interesting what Turner decides to do, but do not sell Tolbert for nothing. The value is legit and though Mathews is a great back, he is a rookie and runs hard. Two things that invite injury. Rivers and Gates were feeling the love yesterday and this is a team with too many weapons to handle.

ARIZONA CARDINALS: Here comes Max Hall? After Anderson threw two picks, Hall was given the call and produced a scoring drive that resulted in a field goal. Matt Leinart actually may have been right all along. Regardless who is at QB, they are not starting caliber and Fitzgerald should be dropped to number two WR value. Another position suffering due to the QB play are the RB's Hightower and Wells whom totaled only 12 carries for 43 yards. Arizona has got to be regretting not being committed to keeping most this team together after last year.

CHICAGO BEARS: The Offensive line was picked apart, allowing 9 sacks in the first half alone and an astonishing 110 total yards to the Bears. Cutler was taken out with a concussion and Todd Collins wound up getting injured as well. This was one of those nights where everything that could go wrong did. Defensively, the unit did continue to look fast and play well but they were just on the field too long. Lovie will be chewing some major Mike Tice ass and a drastic change could be in order when it comes to finding a solution.

NY GIANTS: Even without Kiwanuka, the Giants Defense was suffocating. Osi and Tuck led the charge with 3 sacks each and were constantly in the backfield all game. Manning certainly did not look great, but he didn't have to with Bradshaw and Jacobs gaining 191 yards on the ground and 2 scores. Bradshaw was quickly in Coughlin's dog house after the fumble, but it was a blindside strip and can't be put too much on poor ball control by Bradshaw. If the Giants can continue this play and get back to pounding the ball on the ground they will have a chance to stay competitive for the division. Lets see them do this a few times before making this the expectation.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

WEEK 4 PREDICTIONS

NY JETS at BUFFALO BILLS:  JETS: The Jets have taken the training wheels off Sanchez and he has delivered the last two weeks. I still cringe when I see some of the balls he throws into coverage but Edwards and Keller prove that all you need is to give your receiver a chance to make a play and it will pay off. The run game at this point belongs to L.T. as Greene has been relegated to number two status. LT scored the lone rushing TD last week and is the one you have to start. This week, both guys should be a safe play. Buffalo has been horrible stopping the run, ranking 27th in run D and allowing 29 PPG for the 31st spot. If ever there was a week yet that Greene could prove some value it's this one. If he doesn't give you at least 9 points then it is time to look for options.
BUFFALO: The Bills sent their QB of the future packing this week and have given Fitzpatrick the keys to the kingdom for now. Word is they are back to selling Lynch for the right deal so they could wind up with a solid number two at some point. A guy like Leinart, Shaun Hill, Matt Moore or Quinn could be making his way to Buffalo soon. Buffalo is dead last in Total YPG and 31st in passing yards per game. Obviously their strength is the rush and it will be tested against the leagues 4th ranked run D who is giving up 61 RYPG. Add to that the fact that week to week it's anyone's guess who is going to have the good game and it will do you well to look for other options if you have them.

Buffalo did give the Pats a run for their money on the road so there is a chance for an upset here since they play above potential within their divisional games. However, there is too much chaos and uncertainty on this team to believe it will happen. If Gailey has any shot at winning this game he will have to throw early and often. JETS 28 BILLS 17

FANTASY STARTS: JETS: Edwards (6 for 80 1 TD) Keller (5 for 60 1 TD) L.T. ( 14 for 70 1 TD/ 4 for 48yds) Greene ( 11 for 70 1 TD)
BUFFALO: Parrish ( 8 for 70 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Steve Johnson BUF......He is second on the team with 137 passing yards and should be the best option to break one deep, especially in garbage time. The Jets will be able to run the clock with their run game, forcing Fitzpatrick to throw often in the second half.

BALTIMORE RAVENS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS: RAVENS: Ray Rice has a "significant" knee contusion and could be questionable for this game. Believe it or not, it doesn't really affect the Ravens as they are 17 in Passing YPG and 23rd in Rushing YPG with only 89 YPG. Not really what you would expect, but the addition of Boldin and Houshmenzadeh have allowed Flacco to throw more and not depend on Rice so heavily. Flacco finally burst out of his two week funk last Sunday but will face the league leading Defense in points allowed. Since they weren't really going to get much on the ground against the Steelers to begin with, this is a game where Houshmenzadeh proves his value to the team. While the Steelers are 17th against the pass, they will not be able to handle all three of the Baltimore receivers at once and guard Rice or Mcgahee flaring out of the backfield.
STEELERS: Ben who? Charlie Batch showed why the Steelers keep him around every year, torching the Bucs last week through the air. However, it was one of those games where the score doesn't tell the whole story. Two TD passes were interceptions that bounced off defenders hands and another drive came off a fumble that was returned for a TD. Facing the NFL's top Pass Defense will prove much more of a test and Pittsburgh should run the ball often since Baltimore is 23rd against the rush allowing 127 YPG on the ground. Mendenhall will carry the load in a game that is a toss up depending on what Baltimore team shows up.

The Ravens have too many options for even this Defense to handle and Flacco seems to be hitting his stride now. The key will be the effectiveness of Mcgahee on the ground but more importantly in pass blocking and catching. Batch won't be able to make mistakes against the Baltimore Defense and he is bound to face pressure all game behind a suspect O-Line. The Ravens win this one on the road. RAVENS 20-STEELERS 13.

FANTASY STARTS: RAVENS: Boldin (6 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Heap ( 4 for 40 1 TD) Rice/Mcgahee (14 for 43 yds. 7 for 50 yds 1 TD)
STEELERS: Ward (8 for 70 1 TD) Mendenhall ( 18 for 110 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Houshmenzadeh and Mcgahee....they should have a few good match up's in the game as the Steelers focus on Boldin and Mason and probably run a cover 2 against them.

CINCINNATI BENGALS at CLEVELAND BROWNS: BENGALS: Last year the run game was the source of the Bengals road to the playoffs and controlling the game. This year, the Bengals have shown a commitment to running the ball again, with Benson getting 65 carries thru three games. Problem is he has only gained 202 yds. with those touches for a 3.1 Per Carry Avg. and two scores. His longest is a 13 yard run, while Bernard Scott has a 12 yard run on only 13 carries and is averaging over 5 yards per carry. While Benson had a great game last week, keep in mind it was against the Panthers whom have proven they are far from the team they were last year. With Cleveland coming up you can expect a similar performance, though on the road against a state rival it could be tempered. Palmer has not looked as sharp as everyone hoped so far, with 3 TD's and 3 INT's. I expect this group to get better as the season goes on, but the Bengals are just barely getting it done so far, always doing just a bit more than the opposition. This game should be easily won by the Bengals as long as they don't play down to the competition.
BROWNS: This Defense is surprisingly top twelve everywhere but rushing. After what Boldin did to them last week though, look for these numbers to start rising as teams with better weapons come to town. Seneca Wallace has well outperformed Delhomme and should be the starter for the year if Mangini has a brain left in his skull. The big surprise here is Peyton Hillis, his 3 TD's and 5.6 per carry average. Hillis, like Wallace should keep his starting gig until he proves otherwise over the course of several games. Mangini at least has recognized who the better back is at this point and has given him the start. While the run game has produced results, the pass game has been abysmal ranking 22nd.  Massaquoi and Robiskie are nowhere to be found after having high expectations. The Browns are not going to win games until one of these two can get some respect and allow the field to open up for Cribbs and Hillis.

This game has the potential to be closer than expected if the Browns can play on emotion against a rival. But emotion will wear off once the points start racking up. Did anyone see what Boldin did to them last week? The Bengals are a team just starting to get on a track and that doesn't bode well for Cleveland. Cincinnati should cruise in this one. BENGALS 24-BROWNS 13.

FANTASY STARTS: BENGALS: Ochocinco (8 for 110 yds. 1 TD) T.O. (6 for 80 1 TD) Benson (17 for 80 1 TD) Palmer ( 275 yds 2 TD)   BROWNS: Hillis (18 for 90 yds./ 3 for 25 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Massaquoi CLE....with Adam Jones nursing the shoulder injury, there could be room for him to finally post a decent game as the attention is focused on Hillis and Cribbs.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: WASHINGTON: Portis' slip and fall in order to "protect the ball" while he was in the middle of the field has taken the headlines this week. Shanny obviously wasn't happy, benching him afterwards. Ryan Torain came in instead of Keiland Williams which was a bit of a surprise but given he was with Shanny in Denver, it's no huge news. The question is who gets the start after Torain performed well and is not afraid to take a hit. In a way this helps the team, taking a bit of attention off Mcnabb's return to Philly. Washington is coming off a loss to the Rams and given their in house issues with diva's, this team is not one that can afford drama that detracts from their play. The Skins are very one dimensional with nobody being a true threat outside of Santana Moss and Cooley. They are 28th in Rushing YPG and the Defense is dead last in Total Yards Allowed PG and 31st against the pass. Guess what the Eagles do well? Washington will step up for this game, but the key will be if they can run the ball and keep Vick off the field. Look for Torain to get the start if he has a good week of practice and to possibly take the job if he produces come game time. If you remember the grudge Shanny carried with Haynesworth during pre-season, then benching Portis shouldn't be that wild an idea. The Redskins chances will hinge on Haynesworth getting penetration and putting up his best game in the last two seasons as well as the run game controlling the clock.
PHILADELPHIA: The Eagles are 14th in Passing YPG and 7th in Rushing YPG which makes all sorts of trouble for a Defense like Washington's. Vick has energized the city with his play and is out to prove he is a passer first and foremost. After D. Jackson's big game last week and the continued red zone prowess of Maclin, the Eagles will look to take advantage of Washington's weak pass Defense. I expect Washington to really use all their effort on stopping the pass, so this could become a game where the Eagles adapt and are forced to use the running lanes Washington leaves open for them. They will still have great success through the air, but don't be surprised if it turns into a balanced attack and McCoy has his first big game of the year.

The Redskins have been media darlings this year, but not in a good way. All the distraction and diva attitude on this team are the exact opposite of what this coach wants or looks for. Unless they control the clock with the run game, I don't see Washington having the mental fortitude to bounce back after a deflating loss to St. Louis and they lose big here. EAGLES 30- REDSKINS 20.

FANTASY STARTS: EAGLES: McCoy ( 16 for 98yds 1 TD/ 4 for 30 yds) Maclin (5 for 60 yds 1 TD) Jackson ( 8 for 115 yds 1 TD) Vick ( 240 yds. 2 TD/ 6 for 48 yds 1 TD)   REDSKINS: Moss (8 for 110 yds. 1 TD) Cooley (6 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Ryan Torain.....Shanny will look to control the clock and keep Vick from touching the ball. If that happens and Torain gets the call, he could touch the ball 20 times.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT ST.LOUIS RAMS: SEATTLE: Coming off a game where Leon Washington single handedly beat the Chargers, there really wasn't a great deal that the team could feel good about other than the win and the Special Teams play. Granted they were playing the Chargers, but the Defense allowed Rivers to pass for over four hundred yards. This is a team that ranks 30th against the pass and 28th in total YPG allowed. With Steven Jackson possibly missing time this week, the Rams are going to attack their weakness and won't be able to expect Washington to bail them out again. Offensively, the Seahawks are 21st in Passing YPG and 24th in Rushing YPG. John Carlson is the teams leading pass catcher which isn't a good thing. The Seahawks are a team nearly unbeatable at home but very questionable on the road. The good news is that in their division all they need to do is win the home games and they could win it.
ST. LOUIS: The Rams are riding high after the big upset against Washington and will see a very similar team in Seattle. If Steven Jackson is unable to go, it may not hurt the Rams as much as thought since Seattle is vulnerable to the pass. The play of Clayton and Amendola has given this team a boost behind a QB who has proven to be worth the money they spent on him. The Rams are staying in games because of their play on 3rd downs, allowing only 13 conversions on 40 attempts and keeping opponents to an average of 16 PPG. Given their lower tier Defense, it's been a bit of teams stalling once they get to the red zone against them. Given last week the Seahawks stalled on two drives before the half, St. Louis could have another upset on their hands. The key will be Bradford's ability to make plays and not turn the ball over.

The Seahawks have always had split personality when it comes to their play at home versus the road and although they are riding high after a great win, I didn't see enough to encourage they are for real. I would feel a lot better if it were Sunday morning and Jackson was getting the start, but so far an MRI revealed only a groin strain which means he should be available. St. Louis builds off last week and beats a Seattle team who may be over confident after beating the Chargers. ST. LOUIS 24- SEATTLE 21.

FANTASY STARTS: SEATTLE: Forsett (11 for 60 yds./ 2 for 30 yds.) Branch ( 5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Washington (10 for 60 yds. 4 for 40 yds. 1 TD)
ST. LOUIS: Bradford (340 yds. 3 TD) Jackson ( 17 for 80 yds. 3 for 25 yds. 1 TD) Clayton (7 for 90 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Danny Amendola....with attention focused on Clayton and the possible loss of Jackson or the Rams using him cautiously, Amendola should receive plenty of target and break for one.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers at ATLANTA FALCONS: 49ERS: Singletary shook things up firing the OC Jimmy Raye on Monday and this actually might be what the team needs. Usually firing an OC three games into the season is a very bad sign, but with a team that has the talent to score yet ranks 31st, can it get any worse? Ironically it hasn't been the play of Alex Smith killing them, but the lack of WR help and a Defense that is exhausted being on the field too much because of it. Crabtree did show some minor progress last week, but is far from living up to expectations. Singletary is also shaking up the defensive rotation, allowing some new blood starting which may help energize a defense that was torched by KC. If Frank Gore is going to make it through the season, someone has to step up soon. SF is killing itself on 3rd downs, converting only 10 on 41 tries. Atlanta ranks 22nd against the pass but it stout against the run ranking 12th. Smith will need to connect with his WR corps if he is to have a chance at winning. Singletary will make them focus this week and most likely be extremely involved on both sides of the ball this week during practices.
ATLANTA: The number 2 ranked run game will face a stiff test against an angry 49ers team whom before KC was ranked 7th against the run. Matt Ryan has yet to really be effective due to a lack of production outside of White. The Falcons will no doubt face a stacked box by SF in an effort to shut Turner down and force Ryan to pass to a receiver not named White. Turner will have to be more involved in the pass game if Atlanta is going to hold off SF and send them to 0-4. Once Jenkins returns, it will be a different story, but given what SF has to lose, this will be a test of what he can do with limited options.

The 49ers season rides on this game since there is a huge difference between 1-3 or 0-4. Singletary should have them focused and disciplined for this one ready to come out and live up to their potential. While the firing of Jimmy Raye be some cause for concern, they kept the promotion of OC in house to ease the transition. Given how desperately SF needs this game, they pull it out behind Frank Gore and a Defense with a chip on it's shoulder. SF 17- ATLANTA 14

FANTASY STARTS: ATLANTA: Turner (18 for 80 1 TD) White ( 7 for 80 1 TD)  SAN FRANCISCO: Gore (15 for 60 yds./ 7 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Davis (7 for 60 yds.1 TD)
SLEEPER: Mike Crabtree....He has the ability, and look for Singletary to simplify things for him a bit to get the production he needs to win this game.

DETROIT LIONS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS: DETROIT: The good news is Stafford should start throwing this week. The bad news is that Best has a strained or maybe partially torn ligament in his toe. The Lions are 31st in Rushing YPG averaging only 66 YPG and they give up a league worst 148 YPG. Nate Burleson should be back, adding some help and relief to Megatron who has been largely held in check because of no other threat on passing downs. The possible loss of Best only makes things worse since he was also a factor in the pass game. Shaun Hill has been serviceable in relief of Stafford and getting Burleson back could help somewhat, but not against a Packer team steaming after beating themselves on Monday night. The Lions will not have much to work with and on the road in a hostile environment is the worst situation they could have walked into this week.
GREEN BAY: After shooting themselves in the foot with questionable play calling by Mcarthy and an obscene amount of penalties, the Packers should be in top form and angry. The Defense is 3rd against the pass, facing a team which will not have any other option but to do so. Just how out of hand this game could get is scary, but the Packers will have other issues to acknowledge this week as well. The run game is 22nd with Brandon Jackson and the Pack need to address the situation via trade soon. Their schedule has them facing tough run defenses in the next five weeks and waiting at this point is not an option.

Green Bay is a team expected to make a Super Bowl run and you don't get those expectations without being able to handle the teams you should beat. Green Bay easily walks over the Lions. PACKERS 34- LIONS 17.

FANTASY STARTS: LIONS: Calvin Johnson (9 for 80 yds. 1 TD)  PACKERS: All of them, even Jackson who should find plenty of room. Defense ( 3 turnovers, 3 sacks, 17 pts allowed)
SLEEPER: Shaun Hill....He should wind up throwing close to forty times and while he will allow many turnovers, his overall production could provide points if your starting QB happens to be on a bye this week. But ONLY if you have no better options.

DENVER BRONCOS AT TENNESSEE TITANS: BRONCOS: I think the time to consider Orton a legitimate QB has arrived for any doubters. The Broncos lead the NFL in passing, averaging 350 Passing Yards PG. With a host of weapons to throw to thanks to the emergence of Brandon Lloyd, Orton has thrown four TD to four different players. The problem comes in the red zone, which kept them from beating Indianapolis last week.The run game has gotten off to a horrible start, but Maroney seems to have infused a bit of energy in what the Broncos hope will be enough of a run game to just keep defenses on their toes instead of sitting back against the pass. They will need it big time as they face the 5th ranked Pass Defense. This should be tempered by the fact that the Titans have faced Offenses of Oakland, Pittsburgh, and the Giants whom have all shown they are not close to the caliber of Denver. The key here then becomes the fact that Tennessee will focus on stopping the pass and will force the Broncos to turn to their 30th run offense. There shouldn't be much of a change in Offensive philosophy for the Broncos since they know the Titans have yet to be truly tested in the air and will test it early to see where they stand.
TENNESSEE: The Titans are 30th in Passing Offense but great in the run behind Chris Johnson. However, they face Denver's 10th ranked run Defense giving up only 95 YPG. Denver did face MJD albeit not the one we are used to seeing. Denver can be passed on, ranking 23rd so look for Young to get more involved here through the air. He had a mediocre performance after getting benched the game before and will be the key if Tennesse hopes to win.

This is a match up where each teams Offensive strength plays into the Defenses strength. The Broncos lost a game they had in their control last week but couldn't capitalize on short fields. Given that the Titans have yet to face a passing team of this caliber, I think the Broncos continue to spread the ball around and Maroney is able to contribute keeping the Titans Defense on the field longer than they are used to, forcing Vince Young to pass more than Fisher wants him to. BRONCOS 24-TITANS 20

FANTASY STARTS: BRONCOS: Orton (320 yds. 2 TD)  Gaffney (7 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Lloyd (8 for 90 yds 1 TD) TITANS: CJ (18 for 110 yds. 1 TD) Washington ( 6 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Maroney...given the attention to the pass game and the battle that will go on there throughout the game, Maroney breaks some decent runs and sneaks one in the endzone.

CAROLINA PANTHERS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: CAROLINA: Turning the ball over 12 times in three games doesn't help your effort to win games. Especially when you are starting a rookie QB and have under performing RB's. Regardless, Fox made the right decision in starting Clausen and giving him the go this week as well. Deangelo William had somewhat of a breakout game rushing for 65 yards but Steve Smith was limited to little production behind Clausens pressure and fumble issues. This is a team that could become competitive later in the year, but facing the defending champs will pose problems for a Defense that ranks middle of the road against the Pass and Run.
NEW ORLEANS: With Atlanta and Tampa Bay surprisingly tied with the Saints in record up to this point, the Saints will look to beat a divisional opponent and put some distance between them at the top. The Saints seem to have picked up Offensively where they left off last year, and after a sluggish start, the Defense has started playing with the speed we saw as well. Lance Moore made his impact last week with the absence of Reggie Bush and should continue to produce as long as Bush is gone, essentially taking on his role as short pass routes in the middle of the field. Meachem has yet to make an impact this year, with Henderson getting more of the targets. This is a team that likes to use all it's weapons and spread the ball around so guessing who will be the benefactor week to week will be a headache. The position to watch is at RB to see who takes on the lead role s substitute to Pierre Thomas when he's not in the game.

Carolina has too much inexperience at QB and no real number two WR to be a threat to New Orleans. While it is a divisional game at home, the talent is not up to par with the Saints and they will be left with another loss. SAINTS 28-CAROLINA 13.

FANTASY STARTS: NEW ORLEANS: Brees (320 yds. 3 TD) Colston (6 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Moore (7 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Henderson (7 for 80 yds 1 TD) Thomas (15 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
CAROLINA: Smith (8 for 110 yds. 1 TD) Williams (13 for 60 yds)
SLEEPER: Goodson....Steve Smith will get the targets, but NO will make sure they surround him come red zone time. If he doesn't get the score as I predict or if the Panthers are able to get in the red zone more than anticipated, Goodson is a good bet to sneak one while the Defense is focused on the other side of the field.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: JAGS: David Gerrard has been put on notice after the Jags were awarded Trent Edwards off waivers yesterday. Given Gerrard's numerous chances to prove himself, he has proven ineffective. The lack of normal production we all expect from MJD has me believing he either had some minor clean up surgery this off-season or is playing hurt, which makes the need for Gerrard to produce all that more important. Gerrard is surrounded by capable weapons but his slow decision making is hurting him. I guess watching Leftwich all those years paid off in a bad way. Gerrard is most likely on borrowed time until Edwards picks up the offense and will need to have a great game to buy himself a little more time and create doubt. Jacksonville always gives Indianapolis a run for their money, but the Jags 29th ranked pass Defense is bad omen of things to come this week.
COLTS: Peyton is Peyton and the fall of Garcon has opened the door to Austin Collie whom is putting up the Reggie Wayne numbers in a flip flop of production thus far. Collie looks like the energetic, crisp route runner Peyton feeds on and that they have. The Colts run game and Defense are struggling this year which has them fighting harder than normal to win games. While it's still early, there isn't much to make you think this is something that will get significantly better. It could be age slowly creeping up on the Colts, but like Collie, they are a team with talent in the wings.

This should be another close game for the Colts with the balance depending on the play of Jones-Drew. If MJD can return to his dominating ways, Jacksonville has a chance to keep the ball out of Peyton's hands and pull off an upset. Given what we've seen so far though, this seems like only an outside shot. Mercedes Lewis is a wild card here who could affect the game if Gerrard can find him. Colts win 28-21.

FANTASY STARTS: Manning (340 yds. 3 TD) Wayne (6 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Collie (9 for 100 yds. 1 TD) Clark (8 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Addai (15 for 55 yds. 1 TD)  JAGS: Simms-Walker (7 for 80 yds. 1 TD) MJD (16 for 80 yds. 1 TD/ 4 for 30 yds.) Lewis (5 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: M. Thomas....The Colts have the 20th ranked pass Defense and should have trouble watching Thomas if they are forced to bring help up front to stop MJD.

HOUSTON TEXANS AT OAKLAND RAIDERS: HOUSTON: The Texans had a wake-up call against the Cowboys last week as well as a reminder how average they can become when Andre Johnson is not at 100 percent. While they own the 8th and 5th Offenses in Passing and Rushing respectively, they also own the league worst pass defense, giving up an astonishing 369 yards Passing PG. Their Rush Defense is 2nd allowing only 54 YPG but teams will test them through the air, hoping to hold them just one drive more than they can hold the opponent. Andre Johnson has not stated any set backs after the game and should be available after a light week of practice. Regardless, they face Oakland's 2nd ranked pass defense and Asomugh should blanket Johnson regardless of health, leaving it on Arian Foster's shoulders to beat up on the Raiders weak run defense.
OAKLAND: The Raiders have found new life behind Gradkowski but are coming off a loss where normally dependable Janikowski missed three field goals. Both Louis Murphy and even Heyward-Bey have been effective with Gradkowski at the helm and McFadden has made his return to expectations when he was a top draft pick. The Raiders are coming off a tough loss in Arizona and return home to face a high scoring team who's strength is their Defensive strength. While Oakland has had success running the ball, they will be tested with Mario Williams providing penetration against a weak O-Line.

While the Raiders line offers questions, Gradkowski loves to move and throw on the run. Both Heyward-Bey and Murphy seem to be in sync with him, always coming back to the ball. Since Houston can't defend the pass at all, they will be unable to try and focus on limiting the damage thru the air and stopping McFadden. The Raiders win this game by a field goal as Janikowski redeems himself. RAIDERS 24-TEXANS 21.

FANTASY STARTS: OAKLAND: McFadden (17 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Murphy ( 8 for 110 yds. 1 TD) Miller ( 6 for 70 yds. 1 TD)   HOUSTON: Schaub (280 yds. 2 TD) Foster ( 17 for 100 yds. 1 TD) Johnson (6 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Walter ( 6 for 50 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Owen Daniels HOU...Daniels may be the key to the Texans chances and was targeted six times last week. With Johnson and Walter facing tough coverage, Daniels will have the middle of the field open as the LB's focus on stopping McFadden.

ARIZONA CARDINALS AT SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: SAN DIEGO: No doubt most of practice this week will focus on the Special Teams play after being torched twice by Leon Washington last week. The Chargers still almost overcame the deficit, having a chance to tie at the end. The Bolts also lost Merriman, although it shouldn't serve as a huge loss given his fall in production. The Chargers are ranked no lower than 13 in all categories Offensively and Defensively except for....yeah, special teams. Thankfully, the Chargers face a team ranked 25th in Passing YPG, Total YPG, and PPG.Add to that the 31st Run Defense and 19th Pass Defense and you have just the match up the Chargers needed after a tough loss. The Chargers rank 1st in Total YPG, 2nd in Passing and 13th in the Run game. Getting the Special Teams play up to par is their lone problem, and one that should be fixed within the next few weeks. Mathews went though individual drills on Monday without incident and could be back in the line up Sunday.
ARIZONA: Beanie Wells made his return last week and immediately was given starters carries. The Cards are hoping he can take some of the pressure off Anderson but no amount of run game is going to help a passing offense averaging just 175 YPG. Fitzgerald's stock is falling to number two status daily and the loss of Breaston and Doucet will only allow teams to add extra focus on him. Arizona has officially begun rebuilding mode as so many teams do after a Super Bowl appearance. Though their process should be a much quicker one since they have the base to build off of already in place.

The Chargers take advantage of the loss of Breaston and are able to bring extra men up to protect against Wells while picking the Defense apart with their choice of run or pass. SD 31-ARI 17.

FANTASY STARTS: SD: Mathews or Tolbert ( 16 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Floyd (6 for 100 yds. 1 TD) Gates (8 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Naanee (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Rivers (300yds. 3 TD)
ARIZONA: Wells (14 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Fitzgerald (7 for 80 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Steve Williams...Breaston averaged 6 targets a game and Williams has the speed to make those targets work for him if he gets the start.

CHICAGO BEARS AT NY GIANTS: BEARS: The Bears have silenced all the critics with their big win over Super Bowl pick Green Bay. The Bears Defense was especially relentless and Peppers played out of his mind. The question is if the Bears can continue the intensity here on out. Coming off a win like that there is no reason not to think so. A win like that can carry a team for a while given what it does to a team's confidence. Cutler seems to have settled in to Mike Martz system and the Bears have realized Greg Olsen's potential within the system. With some better growth from their WR group, the Bears have the potential to improve their already 5th ranked Pass Offense Per Game. Their problem lies in Rush offense, sitting at 29th. While a run game is not called for in a Martz offense, the Bears will need to fall back on it in games and will need to be effective. The pass defense sits at 28th and will be the Giants focus as they are 9th in the NFL in Passing YPG.
NY GIANTS: The Giants will air it out against the Bears given the match up and are ranked 4th against the pass which will give the Bears a bit of a challenge. Then again, the Packers were a top ten pass defense and gave up their share to Cutler. The Giants are coming off a beating at home against the Titans and the calls for Coughlin's job are starting to be heard again. The Giants will hope to use ball control but should wind up ineffective as the Bears own the top rushing defense. Steve Smith finally became involved in the Giants pass game last week and they will need him as this turns into an air show.

The Bears momentum and confidence coming off a short week and playing on National TV should propel them to another hard fought win as these two teams seem to be going in opposite directions. BEARS 21-GIANTS 17.

FANTASY STARTS: BEARS: Forte (12 for 40 yds./ 5 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Olsen ( 5 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Knox (6 for 70 yds. 1 TD)   GIANTS: Nicks ( 5 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Manningham (6 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Devin Hester....The Giants know who to focus on in the Martz attack and they won't be able to safely hold down the left side along the the Bears strong right. Hester could take a short slant to the house on any play here.

MONDAY NIGHT.....will be posted up Monday morning,