WEEK 12 GAME/FANTASY PREVIEW

NE PATRIOTS @ DET LIONS: NE: Two weeks straight the Pats have rolled through two playoff caliber teams, dinking and dunking them to death. This may not be the Pats we expect but they are getting things done and executing. Thanksgiving will give them a lot to be thankful for as they face Detroit's 27th ranked rush defense. Detroit is decent vs the pass at 16 but Indianapolis was far better vs the pass and we saw how the Brady to Welker connection dismantled them. Green-Ellis will have a great day here and could see two scores given the ease the Pats will have moving the ball. Hernandez is back also and should see a score and find plenty of room.

DET: Jhavid Best's turf toe is getting worse and has him as a non factor since week four when he aggravated it. Both he and Tony Scheffler whom will be nursing sore ribs, will be iffy plays on a very short week. Not good news against a Patriot run defense that has jumped to 17th with solid play the last few weeks. As always the Lions will be throwing often and though the Pats rank 31st vs the pass, they have been very opportunistic of late, picking off two of the better QB's in Roethlisberger and Manning on crucial drives. The Scheffler injury is good news for Pettigrew owners as he should see expanded work given the Best issues and the fact we could see Hill throw 40+ times.

The Pats will all but ignore the run game and drop extra guys back against the Detroit 6th pass offense. Pats easily win, NE 28-DET 20.

FANTASY STARTS: NE: Brady (280 yds. 3 TD) Green-Ellis (12 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Hernandez (3 for 45 yds. 1 TD) Welker ( 6 for 75 yds. 1 TD) Woodhead (80 total yards) Branch (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD)

DET: Pettigrew (5 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Johnson (6 for 85 yds. 1 TD) Burleson (4 for 50 yds.)

SLEEPER: Shaun Hill DET....He should be forced to throw from start to finish and while the Pats are bound to pick him off a few times, his big work load will produce yardage.

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NO SAINTS @ DAL COWBOYS: SAINTS: Had this game been scheduled two weeks ago we would look at the Dallas defense and expect a huge day, but Garrett has this 20th ranked pass defense and 22nd pass D playing inspired ball. The Saints really don't have many options even if Bush is back to 100% and will use their 2nd ranked pass offense often as usual. Colston seems to be hitting his stride the last few weeks and is emerging as Brees most trusted target. Given the Dallas strength at home and a whole new attitude, don't be surprised if Brees does struggle a bit and this game is closer than expectations.

 DAL: The Cowboys 4th ranked pass offense will face a stiffer challenge against the Saints 2nd ranked pass defense. The Saints can be run on effectively though so look for Felix Jones to be involved heavily as long as his hip issue isn't a problem. While the Saints do have a stout pass defense, they have yet to face a team with this many weapons on offense and will focus on taking Bryant out of the game if they can. Look for Roy Williams and Jones to see a lot of work because of coverages in the pass game. Dallas is playing their hearts out and this is a statement game at home. They will have plenty of mismatches as will the Saints so this one could be a high scoring shoot out.

 Dallas gets the upset, playing to the potential everyone expected of them this year. DAL 31-NO 28. 

FANTASY STARTS: NO: Brees (310 yds. 3 TD) Colston (6 for 95 yds. 1 TD) Moore (7 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Meachem (3 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Bush (70 total yards 1 TD) DAL: Jones (13 for 60 yds. 1 TD/ 4 for 40 yds.) Austin (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Bryant (4 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Williams (4 for 80 yds. 1 TD) 

SLEEPER: Witten DAL: while he has seen limited action recently, the Saints defense will be busy keeping all three wide outs in check leaving Witten with room. 

CIN BENGALS @ NY JETS: CIN: It can't get any worse for the Bengals, and you know it's bad when ego maniac T.O. says they all stink including him. Now they face the Jets whom are finding ways to beat everybody. While the Jets can be passed on, Cedric Benson will be up against the 5th ranked rush defense which is as fast as any he has seen. Benson only excels against weaker defenses and should have a quiet day. Palmer and his accuracy issues will face the 18th ranked pass defense, but the right side will all but be shut down by Revis. T.O. is the recipient of a trip to Revis island so we could see a lot of three wide sets that move him away from Revis. Ochocinco should see the most work of the two.

 NY JETS: Sanchez and the Jets seem to have a knack for pulling games out in the end and he should see plenty of time in the pocket since the Bengals have only 10 sacks on the year which is worst in the NFL. Odom does return for the Bengals, but it should mean very little against a secondary that allowed 3 TD passes to S. Johnson last week. LT and Greene have still been pretty quiet as of late but face the Bengals 23rd rush defense. 

The Jets simply have too many weapons for the Bengals to contain and Marvin Lewis is eyeing a similar fate as Chilly and Phillips. Jets hit the Bengals while they are down. NYJ 27-CIN 20. 

FANTASY STARTS: CIN: Ochocinco (5 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Shipley (6 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Owens (4 for 50 yds.) NYJ: Holmes (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) LT ( 15 for 80 yds 1 TD/ 4 for 50 yds) Edwards ( 3 for 50 yds. 1 TD) Keller (4 for 45 yds. 1 TD) 

SLEEPER: Greene NYJ....While he is seeing an increased work load, this one smells like it could be over by the third Q, leaving Greene to wear the Bengals down late. He could be in line for a TD here. 

GB PACKERS @ ATL FALCONS: GB: Green Bay has been the tip of the ice berg for two coaches jobs in successive weeks and now travel to Atlanta in what will be Atlanta's toughest test since they met the Steelers. Donald Driver looked good vs the Vikes and should be closer to the norm this week. Even better has been the play of James Jones whom now adds a third threat for Rogers and should be the big wild card in this game. The Falcons are 23rd vs the pass and if there is one thing the Pack can do well is pass. They are 10th in pass offense and should come out gunning since Jackson will see little room vs the Falcons 6th rush defense. Atlanta is +10 in turnover margin which explains a big part of their success. However, Rogers is good enough and accurate enough to avoid mistakes. 

ATL: The Falcons are one of the most offensively balanced teams, ranking 13 in passing and 7th in rushing. Where they will find most success is in the run game if Turner can get it going and sneak away from Matthews who has been in beast mode for the Packers. While the Pack are ranked 15th in passing D, Tremon Williams is one of the most under rated CB's and is just as solid a player as Woodson. Both White and Jenkins face some of the best coverage they have all year and it will be on Turner to force the Packers to bring another body up and give the WR's room. Look for the Falcons to get Turner involved very early and often. This will be one of the better games this weekend and will wind up a win for the Packers. Nobody has been able to contain Matthews and the Falcons have yet to face as balanced a defense this year.

 Rogers should be able to pick apart this secondary, forcing the Falcons to abandon the run game. GB 28-ATL 20. 

STARTS: GB: Rogers (300 yds. 3 TD) Jennings ( 6 for 75 yds. 1 TD) Jones (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Driver ( 6 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Jackson (11 for 40 yds. 1 TD) ATL: Ryan (250 yds. 1 TD) White (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Jenkins (3 for 45 yds.) Turner (13 for 65 yds. 1 TD/ 4 for 45 yds.) 

SLEEPER: Gonzales ATL....He will be a boom or bust candidate this week given he should be asked to stay in more and help block Matthews. However, the Packers aggressive defense style could also allow him to slip out and see a field of green and a sneaky score. 

PIT STEELERS @ BUFF BILLS: PIT: The Steelers man handled the Raiders last week and now face an offense even weaker. On the defensive side, the Bills do have a good secondary ranked 9th and good at not allowing the long ball. But the Bills are 32nd vs the run and face the Steeler 11th rush offense behind Mendenhall. He should have an effective day here, but like most Bills opponents, the effectiveness of the run game will open lanes for Wallace and Ward to find the end zone when close.

 BUFF: The Bills have put two in a row together but let's face it, it was against two teams worse than they are. The Bills do have the talent to make this one interesting and we can expect another good fantasy day for Fitzpatrick since he will no doubt be throwing from start to finish. The Steelers own the top Rush defense in the NFL and have shut down better backs that Jackson. The Steelers are 25th vs the pass, so look for this to be the focus, making Jackson a possible bench candidate if you have options. The Steelers are tied for 2nd in sacks, so while they do allow the yardage, they can make it a long day if able to get penetration against a Bills offensive line that is weak. 

While Fitz and Johnson will put up points, it will be tempered by how well the line blocks for him. Unless the Steelers under estimate the Bills, this one goes as expected. PIT 24- BUF 17.

 FANTASY STARTS: PIT: Mendenhall (16 for 110 yds. 1 TD/ 2 for 20 yds.) Wallace (4 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Ward (6 for 70 yds. 1 TD) BUF: Fitzpatrick (280 yds. 2 TD) Johnson ( 6 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Evans ( 4 for 70 yds. 1 TD) 

SLEEPER: Miller PIT...He has been relegated to a fourth option on offense, but does pose some value here since the Bills Whitner can take away Ward from those short routes he runs making Miller the second option in the pass game.

 CAR PANTHERS @ CLE BROWNS: CAR: Everyone knows the Panthers are this years whipping boy and exactly what will happen at QB this week is any ones guess. Jonathan Stewarts status is still up in the air and with Goodson's second solid performance, look for him to be the offense against the Browns 21st rush defense. Cleveland is 22nd vs the pass, so there is a chance Steve Smith flirts with a score.

 CLE: While Carolina does own the 7th ranked pass defense, it may not be as much a factor since Delhomme looks to get the start vs his former team while McCoy nurses an ankle sprain. Nobody is sure to know the defense like Delhomme and Hillis should walk over the Carolina 24th run defense making Delhomme that much more effective even with his limited options.

 There really isn't much to debate here, it's a good team against the league worst. CLE 20- CAR 14. 

FANTASY STARTS: CAR: Goodson (17 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Smith ( 4 for 60 yds. 1 TD) CLE: Hillis (14 for 110 yds. 2 TD) Watson (5 for 80 yds.) 

SLEEPER: Stuckey CLE.....Delhomme is far from a gun slinger and if Carolina is effective at denying Watson, Stuckey becomes the primary target in the minimalist pass game.

 JACK JAGUARS @ NY GIANTS: JAC: Not that he was producing all that much, but Simms-Walker will be out a few weeks, and that boosts Osgood's value big time. Osgood immediately was effective last week and now is a sure fire guy Gerard will look to is Thomas is covered. This week though they face a stingy Giants secondary that ranks 4th. The G men are also 4th vs the run but have had issues against the top tier backs. The Giants are looking to return to their winning ways and Coughlin is a good bet to sell out and ensure MJD doesn't beat them. It will be on Gerrard to make it happen but does struggle on the road at times. 

NYG: The Giants also lost a receiver last week though theirs more costly. Hakeem Nicks is slated to miss three weeks which not only puts the Giants in a bind but your fantasy team as well. Three weeks plus one week for him to get back into the flow means he probably won't be reliable until the last week of the fantasy playoffs. What could have been a huge week vs the Jags 28th pass defense becomes a bit more even keeled. Regardless of the Bradshaw fumbles, he is their best runner and will be needed here since the Giants are running out of play makers. Jacksonville ranks 19th vs the run so look for a good Jacobs-Bradshaw split that tries to wear down the Jags. Anyone remember pre season stud Victor Cruz? Maybe this is where he gets his shot since the Giants are down to Manningham alone. 

Both teams are on equal footing but defense wins games, and the Jags are a one trick pony. The Giants contain MJD and win a low scorer. NYG 20- JAC 13.

 FANTASY STARTS: JAC: MJD (14 for 65 1 TD/4 for 25 yds) NYG: Manningham (6 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Bradshaw (11 for 65 yds.) Jacobs (13 for 70 yds. 1 TD) 

SLEEPER: V. Cruz NYG.....This guy was sensational in the preseason and did well vs starters as well, not just second teamers. He has speed to burn and this is a favorable match up for Coughlin to break him in. 

MIN VIKINGS @ WASH REDSKINS: MIN: Much like Phillips in Dallas, the players lost all respect for Childress a long time ago, finally prompting Wilf to fire him. Now comes Leslie Frazier and echos of Dallas begin to play. The team respects Frasier and what he's built with this defense. Expect him to allow Favre some room and to open things up a bit. Most likely he will try and pound Peterson of course, but something tells me he let's Favre loose. While not necessarily a good thing, it may make the Vikings a bit more unpredictable. This week they face one of the worst secondaries in Washington, ranked 29th. The Skins are equally as bad vs the rush, ranking 28th. All your Vikings make good plays this week and now with Rice getting a game under his belt he should get a score. 

WASH: The Skins stepped up on the road vs the Titans but will now face a tougher defense ranked 13th vs the pass and 7th vs the rush. Portis is officially out, leaving Torain and Williams as the options. Mcnabb should have some success through the air and it will be another big passing work load for him since the Washington run game ranks 22nd. Armstrong should be the fantasy guy here since the Vikings are strong defending other top wide outs not named Jennings.

 The Vikings do their best Dallas impression and let loose on a sporadic Redskin team. MIN 28-WAS 20. 

FANTASY STARTS: MIN: All you players. Peterson has the highest scoring day of the bunch though. WAS: Williams (12 for 55 yds. 1 TD/4 for 40 yds.) Moss (4 for 60 yds.) Armstrong (5 for 85 yds. 1 TD) SLEEPER: Cooley WAS....He will be depended on heavily with Allen pressuring Mcnabb all day. 

TENN TITANS @ HOU TEXANS: TEN: Vince Young goes to the IR, shutting him down for the year in what may have been his final game as a Titan. Collins comes in and has the best possible opponent vs the Texans 32nd pass defense. This of all games should be Moss' day to score and Bo Scaife should also get fantasy love as well. The Texans are middle of the pack vs the run, but it's CJ and middle of the pack means a two score 100 yard day for him. All your Titans are starter worthy this week, pure and simple.

 HOU: Schaub seemed to suffer no set back on his knee this week and should post solid numbers vs the Titan 27th ranked secondary. The Titans are far better vs the run at 11th, but Foster has been a beast at home and is tough no matter who the opponent. The Titans do have a good front four and have applied solid pressure on QB's logging 30 sacks. No big deal for Schaub though since all he will need to do is lob the ball up to Andre Johnson who should return to his normal big days.

 This one goes to whoever can score that one last TD vs suspect secondaries. Since Collins is not as much of a deep threat thrower as Schaub, Texans get it. HOU 31-TEN 28.

 FANTASY STARTS: All your players in this game for either team. It should be a high scoring affair, spreading the double digit goodness. 

SLEEPER: Derik Ward HOU and Javon Ringer TEN....Both guys could see expanded time in relief of their lead backs whom will have heavy work loads. Ward has already scored in similar type games and while Ringer doesn't get a lot of touches, he makes the most of them here while Houston is on their heels. 

MIA DOLPHINS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS: MIA: After laying an egg last Thursday, the Dolphins get a chance to regroup and face an Oakland team that took a beating of their own in Pittsburgh. Oakland is 25th vs the run and we could see good days for both Brown and Williams. Sporano will likely go run heavy regardless since Marshall will be a questionable start and Thigpen was humbled last week. Look for Brown to see more action in the pass game as well with a return to a heavier use of the wildcat.

 OAK: Asumogha is believed to have a shot at playing this week but not much has been confirmed as of yet. Campbell is so far likely to get the start but regardless who is back there, the Miami 6th pass defense will be an issue. Like Miami, the Raiders should elect to go run heavy vs Miami's 20th rush defense. Ball control with middle safe route passing will be keys for both teams. 

Both teams are similar with their styles of play but Oakland has the more formidable ground game and has proven it. OAK-20-MIA 17.

 FANTASY STARTS: MIA: Brown (13 for 70 yds 1 TD/ 5 for 45 yds) Williams (11 for 55 yds.) Bess (5 for 60 yds.) Fasano (4 for 45 yds) Hartline (6 for 50 yds. 1 TD) OAK: McFadden (16 for 95 yds. 1 TD/3 for 40 yds.) Miller (4 for 55 yds. 1 TD) 

SLEEPER: J. Ford OAK....He was kept quiet vs the Steelers, but everybody was. Look for him to bounce back and have the better match up as Murphy deals with Vontae Davis. 

KC CHIEFS @ SEA SEAHAWKS: KC: Thomas Jones got back into the flow of things vs Arizona and Charles was also effective in limited duty since Jones had the hot hand. Seattle is 14th vs the run, but they will most likely be without their top CB Truffant (concussion) which will allow more options in the pass game. KC's weak secondary (24th) also gets a breather since it looks like Mike Williams will be out after hearing a pop in the bottom of his foot last week. Carrol isn't saying much, but it sounds serious so look for KC to be effective in the pass and use the ground game to keep a lead in the second half. Both backs will be solid plays once again. 

SEA: No Mike Williams will mean an expanded role for Butler and Carlon since Hasselbeck will be the key to scoring against the KC 24th pass defense. Lynch will have a tougher time vs the 12th rush defense of the Chiefs, leaving Forsett as the guy you want here because of his catch skills. Look for a heavy pass attack involving getting Forsett into space.

 Seattle lost it's top two guys at skill positions on both sides of the ball and KC gets the win in a hostile environment. KC 24-SEA 17.

 FANTASY STARTS: KC: Jones (15 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Charles (11 for 65 yds. 1 TD/ 3 for 40 yds.) Bowe ( 4 for 60 yds. 1 TD) SEA: Butler (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Forsett (9 for 40 yds./6 for 55 yds. 1 TD) SLEEPER: Carlson SEA....Carlson is about the only dependable option for Hasselbeck and could see a big day if the Hawks get down fast.

 PHI EAGLES @ CHI BEARS: PHI: Vick has now gone 220 passes without a pick which would have been unimaginable if we were not seeing it for ourselves. Both he and McCoy have also propelled the Eagles run game to 3rd in the NFL but now face a hot Bears team ranked 2nd vs the run and 12th vs the pass. Reid will look to test the secondary early and get McCoy some running room. 

CHI: Much like themselves, the Eagles are stout vs the run (8th) and 17th vs the pass. The Eagles will be without Assante Samuel, who helped this pass defense become respectable when he returned after missing time. Now without him, the Eagles face the threat of playing catch up for the first time since Vick has returned. Look for Martz to also test the secondary, but more out of need than want. Forte has been weak on the ground but has picked it up of late. Even with the run game getting a footing, it will be tough to find room here. The Bears defense seems to be hitting it's peak and they are as tough as can be at home.

 The Eagles have 19 picks on the year but missing Samuel will hurt, especially vs a pass happy Martz. Chicago wins a tough defensive game. CHI 20-PHI 17. 

FANTASY STARTS: PHI: Vick (260 yds. 2 TD/ 3 for 50 yds.) Jackson ( 4 for 89 yds. 1 TD) Maclin ( 5 for 70 yds.) McCoy (12 for 40 yds./ 5 for 55 yds.) CHI: Forte (10 for 40 yds./ 7 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Knox (5 for 65 yds. 1 TD) 

SLEEPER: Hester CHI...With focus placed on Knox and Forte, Olsen and Hester will be the ones with favorable match ups and opportunity to win those battles. Hester's special teams ability of course adds value, but he has been evolving the last few weeks and can get hot.

 STL RAMS @ DEN BRONCOS: RAMS: The defense let one go vs Atlanta and now the Rams who have road issues travel cross country to face a Denver team with steam to blow off after a poor Monday night showing. The Broncos are 26th vs the run and good vs the pass despite what we saw Monday so look for a heavy dose of Jackson. This could be one of those times where SJax has a career day in both rushing and receiving. Sproles and Tolbert each had great success in their roles, and SJax is both of them rolled into one. The Rams are 26th in pass offense and outside of Gibson have no decent deep option. Look for a ton of SJax with Amendola in short yardage situations. 

DEN: The Broncos run game fizzled once again after starting strong vs San Diego and the pass game wasn't much better. The Broncos were pressured often and Orton will see a similar type of defensive plan in the Rams. This will be another bad week for Moreno, as the Rams are 9th vs the run. The good new is that the Rams 21st ranked pass defense is just what Orton and company need after being shit down on Monday. We should see a return to the air show in this one and expect Orton to hit 300 here. 

While the Rams will make a good go at it early, the Broncos excel at the deep ball and it is too much for the Rams. DEN 28-STL 17. 

FANTASY STARTS: STL: Jackson (16 for 90 yds. 1 TD/6 for 55 yds. 1 TD) 

DEN: Orton (310 yds. 3 TD) Lloyd ( 7 for 95 yds. 1 TD) Gaffney ( 4 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Royal ( 6 for 70 yds. 1 TD) 

SLEEPER: Gibson STL....while not much is to be expected of him, the Broncos know if the Rams get to the red zone Bradford looks to Amendola and Bailey has the ability to keep him blanketed leaving Gibson with a possible short yard score.

TB BUCCANEERS @ BAL RAVENS: TB: Nobody would have guessed the Bucs would be in the divisional race, much less the NFC playoff race, but at 7-3 here we are. After shutting out the 49ers on the road, the Bucs secondary has risen to 3rd in the NFL and have 15 interceptions. Offensively, the run game which was stagnant and in the bottom half behind Williams has risen to 12th behind Legarette Blount. Williams has become the 3rd down/4th Quarter guys and has found success allowing the pass game to open up because of the run effectiveness. Rookie Mike Williams is at the top of his class amongst receivers, battling Dez Bryant for a shot at ROY. The Bucs have lost their previous 2 matches against playoff teams in Pittsburgh and New Orleans, but in each one Cadillac was the lead back and the Bucs had no run game to speak of. Now they bring a much more effective and balanced offense to Baltimore to face their 10th rated rush defense and 11th pass defense. This will be the best test yet for this young team to see how it will match with some savvy veterans. The Bucs will of course focus on the run to open the pass, and are getting some players back just in time. Sammy Stroughter and C Jeff Faine both returned the last two weeks and will be needed to step up here. Look for the Bucs to possibly get creative, using Josh Johnson in the wildcat formation the Bucs have been testing out the last few weeks. Where they will win is in the pass game where other teams like Buffalo have had success. 

BALT: The Ravens have been playing like the Super Bowl contenders we expected and bring a very balanced attack against the Bucs 3rd ranked pass defense but have a great match up against the Bucs 30th rush defense. The Bucs schemed well last week and held Frank Gore to just 60 total yards which is a feat few teams have been able to do. This week should see a similar scheme as they try to limit Ray Rice's abilities. The Ravens will face one of the stiffer secondaries since the Jets, so will look to test the ground game immediately with a healthy dose of Rice. Houshmenzadeh broke out last week vs the tough Carolina secondary and should play the wild card here as well. The Ravens have multiple weapons on offense and Housh with Heap are the two factors that challenge any secondaries depth. 

Baltimore has the home crowd and how hard this game is for them will depend on what Bucs rush defense shows up. The one from last week or the one which earned that 30th rush defense ranking. The home team has the edge until we see other wise. BAL 23-TB 20.

FANTASY STARTS: TB: Blount (14 for 60 yds. 1 TD) M. Williams (4 for 70 yds. 1 TD)

BAL: Rice (13 for 70 yds. 1 TD/ 4 for 45 yds) Boldin (4 for 65 yds. 1 TD) 

SLEEPER: Todd Heap BALT....The Bucs athletic LB core will be focused on Ray Rice, leaving some mismatches for Heap to take advantage of. 

SD CHARGERS @ IND COLTS: SD: The Chargers November madness hopes to continue this week against a Colts secondary ranked 10th. Rivers showed he doesn't need to throw for 300 yards to win, instead dumping off to his receivers who amassed a ton of YAC. The Chargers may be without Patrick Crayton on this short week, but are expecting Vincent Jackson to return opposite Malcom Floyd. Rivers has already proven he can do it regardless who he's throwing to, and the return of Floyd and Jackson is going to test the Colts ranking. The man to watch however will be Mike Tolbert whom has over shadowed rookie Ryan Mathews with his hard nosed running and 8 TD's in 10 games. Tolbert is the one you can depend on and will carry great value here since the Colts have the 31st ranked rush defense. As I said, it doesn't matter who the opponent is, so look for SD to keep doing it's thing with Rivers and using the play action for some deep connections and catch the Colts sleeping. Gates is hoping to return this week and only further complicates things for the Colts.

IND: Peyton came up just short last week and is a good bet to bounce back this week. It won't be easy though vs the SD top pass defense which just flustered Kyle Orton and Denver's 5th ranked pass offense. Manning should see some pressure most the game and will be without Austin Collie who runs those under routes Manning relies on when things get dicey. He will instead continue to rely on Jacob Tamme who has saved Manning's hide on numerous drives and is the only sure handed receiver past Reggie Wayne. It should be Donald Brown again this week, and Brown, who is already not the greatest play, faces the SD 3rd ranked run defense. Manning will be forced to throw often, and like Rivers, it really doesn't matter who the opponent is, Manning will find the holes in a defense. Garcon will need to have another solid game if the Colts hope to pull this one out against another playoff caliber team for the second straight week.

This will be a great game of strategy and QB play to watch, but the only factor which tilts the scales is Tolbert vs the Colts rush defense. Tolbert should be able to find running lanes and scores the difference maker. SD 31-IND 28.

FANTASY STARTS: SD: Rivers (280 yds. 3 TD) Floyd (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Jackson (6 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Gates (8 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Tolbert (13 for 80 yds. 1 TD)

IND: Wayne ( 5 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Tamme (7 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Garcon ( 3 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Manning (260 yds. 3 TD) Brown (14 for 50 yds./ 3 for 25 yds. 1 TD)

SLEEPER: D. Sproles SD....Sproles pass catch/run abilities always keeps the defenses guessing and is a great decoy for Rivers. Look for Sproles and his speed on turf to be a difference maker and keep the Colts honest from selling out. 

What We Learned Sunday

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: David Gerrard needs to feel uncomfortable with his job. Since the signing of Edwards, Gerrard has looked like the guy Byron Leftwich was run out of town for. Remember when he stole the job from Byron with his stellar play? Ironically, Gerrard has become quite similar to him. Ever since being the unquestioned QB he has played like someone with nothing to lose. Now, with someone breathing down his back (in theory at least) Gerrard has taken it up a notch. Mercedes Lewis is his favorite target....Lewis spoke in preseason how it was the first time he stayed in Jacksonville year round just so he and Gerrard could work together and it is showing. Lewis tied Jacksonville's TE record for TD's in a season this week and there should be more to come. Only play Mike Simms-Walker in fantasy when he makes a stink about not being involved. So far the two times he's complained are the two times he scored and put up good numbers. MJD is getting better, but he is still not what we have been accustomed to. He has always been able to beat teams even when they stack the box, but this year he seems to have lost just a bit. I think he is playing through a minor injury that is going to require surgery in the off-season but the official status is that he has none.

BUFFALO BILLS: They are much better with Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Defense just can't stop anybody and will be this team's killer game after game. Fred Jackson is the back you want here although Spiller will have his games here and there. Lee Evans dropped 84 yds. with a TD and is this team's top threat at WR. Consistency will be the problem though as they play in one of the toughest divisions. The best way to make decisions on when to use Bills players is obvious...only against weak and middle of the road defenses. 

DENVER BRONCOS: Brandon Lloyd is for real and found a system he actually excels in. He seems to have found a second life in pass happy Denver and is a dependable start every week. As for Gaffney and Royal, it is a roll of the dice week to week who will be the number two worthy of starting. Denver has no run game and it will lose them games....you have to be able to run the ball in the NFL and until Denver finds a way to do that, they will continue to fail against good secondaries. When your top rusher only gains 26 yds. you are not going to win. Kyle Orton is a top tier QB....zero run game means passing all day and Orton has done just that, but also looked very effective. 

BALTIMORE RAVENS: They have too many ways to beat you....In a game where no receiver surpassed 58 yds, Ray Rice ran for 133 yds and two scores. With the talent they have at receiver, any one of them can explode on any play. When you need to stay vigilant against them and keep Ray Rice at bay it becomes an issue very few teams will be able to handle this year. Couple that with a top defense, the Offense can afford off days and still win the game. Baltimore will make the playoffs and win the division.

KC CHIEFS: They finally came back down to earth this week although they didn't make it easy for Manning. This team is for real and have the ability to make a run for the division this year. The defense played great, but if you give Peyton enough chances, he will eventually make you pay. Even if it's just putting together drives that result in crucial field goals. The Chiefs beat themselves in my eyes. Bowe and Moeaki both let scores get away from them and critical 3rd down passes were dropped. Cassel actually looked good and put the ball where it was on the receivers to do something with it. They just didn't. Jamaal Charles is the fantasy back you want here out of the two and deserves to get the 16-8 carry split he did in this game every week. While he wasn't able to break away for one this week, he is the more explosive and dynamic ball carrier here. Thomas Jones was running behind a great offensive line in NY and while KC has a good one they are not the Jets. Other than Moeaki at TE, no Chief receiver will be trust worthy this year. Sell Bowe now if you can or wait until his next good outing and get value for him.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS:  Manning had an off day is what you will hear, but it was more the result of a KC team that has a legitimate defense and some coaches that know what they're doing. Addai went down yet again with a shoulder injury and Mike Hart took over for him scoring the only TD of the day. Addai has only had one good game and should be on his way out next year. Both Donald Brown and Hart have more upside, but neither is a good fantasy candidate. Reggie Wayne will still get his solid and steady numbers every week regardless if Peyton is spreading the ball around. Which makes the question "Who is the WR outside of Wayne to have?" Garcon returned and had one more reception than Collie with nine more yards. While this was not Peyton's best day, it's going to be hard to know who he will look for in the red zone. Hopefully next week will answer questions, but the return of Garcon makes things murky. If you can still get some high value for Collie it may be time to sell him before it's too late. The team seems committed to Garcon despite Collie's season so far but we won't know how this plays out for another week or two. Better to sell than be stuck with a guy who is going to be a borderline number three WR.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: Maybe the Bucs are that good or maybe the Bengals are that bad. Regardless, we know for sure that 3-1 isn't all luck and that the defense in Tampa is back. They forced Carson into three turnovers in crucial moments, twice in the final minutes of the game that led to the Bucs winning on the road in Cinci. Mike Williams is this teams clear cut WR stud gaining 99 yds and a score. Aurelious Benn made an impact in this game as well, moving the chains and coming up with some key catches. As the season goes on, these two with Winslow could become a great trio. Morgan Spurlock keeps making key catches in crucial situations and Sammy Stroughter is dependable as they come. There is a young core here that is familiar of New Orleans three years ago. As long as Freeman is healthy, this team will be competitive in every game. The run game on the other hand has much to desire. Despite Raheem Morris' comments that Hugging and Blount would get more carries, he stayed committed to Cadillac whom again averaged only 3 ypr. At some point this team needs to realize that Huggins and Blount need to touch the ball more in order to beat opponents throughout the game and not just in the end. The defense is playing fast and opportunistic despite the lack of splash plays up front. They've had the pressure but are always a step short of a sack.

CINCINNATI BENGALS: While Palmer will get the flack for this game, it was his receivers that deserve a public beating. All the Bengals wide outs dropped key passes that either led to punts or turnovers. Palmer placed the ball in good spots where there was no excuse for the drops.While he did make two bad judgements on balls thrown, the Bengals had chances to score and move the ball but drops killed it. Cedric Benson pounded the Bucs for 144 yds but failed to score. The Bengals are playing nowhere to their potential and every week seems like some aspect of their team refuses to show up. Expected to compete for the division this year, the Bengals need some continuity and discipline. Everything we're seeing out of them points to Marvin Lewis. A change could be in store next year. The Bye week couldn't come at a better time for a team that needs to regroup.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: The offense is as potent as they come and the defense is strong yet this teams continues to beat themselves because of special teams play. Two blocked punts, one returned for a score the other a safety. The three fumbles hurt as well, but it was the special teams play early that set the tone for the Oakland defense and had them buzzing all game. Losing to Oakland has to hurt that much more since they not only lost to a divisional foe but lost the grip on the division on a day where Denver and KC lost. This is the second time special teams play have been a key factor in a loss. Malcom Floyd is the new Vincent Jackson...213 yards? Against the Oakland secondary? Floyd has Rivers trust and is by all means a weekly start who carries top tier value. Mike Tolbert scored the only rushing TD and looks to hold the role of red zone back with a healthy amount of carries as well. At this point, Tolbert carries more value than Mathews. 

OAKLAND RAIDERS: Gradkowski left the game with an injury and Campbell seems to have won his starting job back regardless of how bad the injury is. He played a smart game and made precise passes in between the coverage where only his receivers could catch the ball. While Mike Bush didn't show McFadden speed, he did provide that hard nose running style expected and pounded his way to 104 yds. and a score. The Raiders have the talent defensively, but need consistency on offense if they're going to compete in the division. This could be the game they needed to build confidence, especially for the offensive line who actually looked a bit better this week. Zach Miller and Louis Murphy are still the only two ball catchers worth starting in fantasy, Miller being an every week play and Murphy nothing more than a flex depending on opponent.

CLEVELAND BROWNS: Seneca Wallace went down with an injury and Peyton Hillis had appeared on the injury report late last week which led to a 28 yard day for him. With Wallace expected to be out, Delhomme hurt as it is and Hillis nursing an injury that obviously affects his ability, the Browns are in shambles. Depending on how Hillis responds this week to treatment, no Browns players are starter worthy. Unless clear information comes out this week stating that Hillis is fully healthy, he may be a bench next week. 

ATLANTA FALCONS: Atlanta continues to be the Turner White show and it continues to work. This is one of those teams who may only have limited resources but they know how to use them. Turner rushed for 140 yds. and White had 101 with a score. Matt Ryan continues to be a marginal fantasy QB and Gonzales has fallen off the map completely. Outside of the two mentioned, nobody can really be trusted. They are a team that can be tough when all aspects are firing but are very beatable when either Turner or White are kept in check.

DETROIT LIONS: All those close losses and bad beats led to frustration that was released on the Rams this week. Megatron and Burleson both caught TD passes, the defense was swarming and special teams special. While I expected  a Lions win, nobody expected it to be so lopsided. The Lions continue to be one of the best losing teams and can put together a good run if the defense can come out like it did today. Best and Megatron continue to be the only two weekly starts in fantasy, but Burleson when healthy has proven he is a threat and should be considered a flex play every week depending on the match up.

ST. LOUIS RAMS: It was one of those games where everything went wrong. Especially losing Mike Clayton to a knee injury. Without Clayton, the Rams reverted to their old ways and it became the SJax show. If Clayton is out for any extended time it's going to spell bad news for the Rams. Amendola is a great second option, but he's not meant to be a primary WR. Especially not in fantasy unless it's a PPR league. Jackson continues to show he will get his regardless. Until we know on Clayton, Jackson is the only play here next week.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS: The Skins are quickly getting a reputation for being the most physical team in the NFL. Last week it was Vick and McCoy, this week its was Finley, Lee, and Rogers they banged up. Washington is by no means winning pretty and each game could have easily been a loss as it was a win. The leadership of Mcnabb seems to be paying off however as he continues to be this teams foundation and is showing poise under pressure. Though Santana Moss put up 118 yards, nobody on this team is lighting it up each week and fantasy plays should be made on a weekly match up only basis. The closest you have here to an every day guy is Cooley who will get his touches since Mcnabb loves to use the TE. Moss is a close second, but not a guarantee regardless of how he did this week.

GREEN BAY PACKERS: The loss of Finley made the passing game much more predictable but part of it was Washingtons pass defense. Brandon Jackson had his best game, posting 115yds. but is still far from dependable as a starting RB. The Packers keep coming up short the last few weeks and teams are sitting back on Rogers not allowing the big play. While Jackson did have a great game, the Packers need a dependable back who can carry more of a load so Rogers doesn't have to throw 50 times a game. Finley's injury did look serious so stay tuned on the MRI results. Get ready to pick up Lee if the news is as bad as I think it is.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: Victims of the biggest upset, the Saints have been a much lesser team than they were last year after five games. The receivers just seem to be playing a bit slower and and the plays that were there last year are missing. Meachem hasn't been a huge factor, Henderson has been hit or miss, and Colston has been far below expectations. Also, we're seeing how much of a factor Reggie Bush was in this offensive game plan. The fact that Brees was playing at less than 100%  and no Pierre Thomas also has to be taken into account here. Right now Brees is the only solid, dependable fantasy play every week. Of course in this offense there will be value every week for the receivers, but none of them are as readable as last year.

ARIZONA CARDINALS: Max Hall is getting more credit that he deserves since it was the defense that won this game despite his mistakes. The running game continues to be below average and Fitzgerald continues to be dependable but far less than a fantasy stud. Jay Feely and Fitzgerald are the only two weekly starts and while this was a good win, it can't be expected to happen again. This team will fall back to earth quickly.

CAROLINA PANTHERS: No Steve Smith hurt them as bad as expected and both Williams and Stewart found a hard time getting anywhere against Chicago's defense. This team is bad but young. As long as Steve Smith is out, defenses will be able to stack the box without fear and will limit what the backs can do. Williams and Stewart are officially only starter worthy if you have a bye week or the run defense you are facing is that bad.

CHICAGO BEARS: No Jay Cutler, no problem. The Bears caught a break this week after losing Cutler to a concussion by facing a team that is rebuilding and nowhere close to the Bears talent level. Cutler should return next week and they will have two more good match ups coming at home in Seattle and Washington. Not much has changed here in terms of fantasy value.

NY GIANTS: Don't look now, but the Giants defense is playing up to their potential, feeding off of last week's performance against Chicago. The Giants held Arian Foster to 28 yds. rushing and caused headache for Matt Schaub. Hakeem Nicks has proved he will be a complete stud against lesser secondaries and is the clear cut number one receiver. Steve Smith finally woke up and looks to be a decent number three receiver from here on out. After last week, there seems to be a trend starting where Bradshaw gains the yardage and Bradshaw is called upon for the red zone duties. Jacobs got the only rushing score and this may be something to pay close attention to. Jacobs still isn't fantasy start worthy but what it does to Bradshaws value is more important. It may be time to unload Bradshaw while his value is at what I expect to be it's peak if Jacobs stays healthy.

HOUSTON TEXANS: The whole team struggled and this defense is starting to cause problems now that they are facing defenses that can keep Foster and Schaub in check. The good news here is that Andre Johnson got his and has proven once again what an amazing healer he is and his ability to play through injury. The fantasy plays are as normal here, but Foster owners should pick up Ward while they can as he is clearly showing he would be next in line.

DALLAS COWBOYS: I said early in the season that Phillips may be a candidate to lose his job by mid-season, and if things don't turn around next week vs. Minnesota I expect Jones to pull the trigger and hand the job open to Garrett who has been the favorite for a while now. Felix Jones backed me up and had his best game proving that the best fantasy analysis of this team is to listen to Jerry Jones. I was high on Roy Williams in the preseason only to fall off the wagon after the first two weeks but am officially back on. He has turned it around with Dez Bryant breathing down his neck. The Cowboys continue to not utilize Bryants potential though it's understandable considering the mouths Romo has to feed. Roy Williams has elevated to a legitimate start but be cautious against better secondaries.

TENNESSEE TITANS: Vince Young continues to baffle me on knowing how to read the guy. One week up the next bad. He needs to prove some type of consistency before he can be a trustworthy start every week. Until then he should stay as a back up on your team. Kenny Britt is showing consistency and could become quite a threat along with Nate Washington if Young can find a balance throwing the ball. Even if that does happen, the CJ2K will continue to be the center piece and limit their value since they will have to make the most of their touches every game.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Just when Alex Smith looked like the player he was expected to be as time was winding down, he comes out next series and promptly ruins it. Mike Singletary's job is in jeopardy but he has stated he will stick with Alex Smith despite the short comings. Why they don't give David Carr a shot is beyond me. Alex Smith has clearly proved he will never play past a certain level and the team is hurting for it. Crabtree broke out this week and you can expect more as the pass game focus' more around him and Vernon Davis. San Fran is realizing they are better when they both touch the ball, allowing Gore some rest. The next few weeks will be interesting as to if Singletary loses his job should they lose another two games. Expect to see Carr if Smith struggles against a hot Oakland team.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Kolb looked alot better after last weeks outing but did nothing to make a case for why he should keep the job once Vick returns. McCoy surprised by showing he could play through a fractured rib as if nothing was bothering him,  rushing for 92 yards and a score. For as long as Vick is out you can bump up Celek to every week starter. Past that, Jackson, Maclin, and McCoy are the dependable starts regardless.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS: The Vikings came up short yet again, but there is much to be excited about even in the loss. Moss made an immediate impact catching a TD from Favre, and Harvin was able to excell back in his usual position, especially when lined up next to Moss. Peterson and Schiancoe did not have great nights although that was due to the Jets athletic Line Backers and stout run defense. The biggest concern here is why was Favre holding his throwing elbow on multiple occasions in the fourth quarter? At his age, an arm injury is the last thing you want to see. The Vikings have an interesting game next week against a team very much like them in the Cowboys. Given Dallas' weak pass defense, this could become a shoot out where it's fantasy heaven. Just stay on top of what Favre did to his elbow.

NY JETS: The Jets offense seemed to put it all together, having everyone contribute with all their play makers on the field at once. Shonn Greene rushed for a score behind LT who carried the load yet again. LT continues to defy, having a bounce in his step we haven't seen in two seasons. You have to wonder at this point if the AJ Smith battle wasn't wearing on him or if he just wanted out and figured it was best to not perform. Sanchez has evolved every week and is proving he can be trusted to throw the ball and not be babied. This only makes them that more potent now that Holmes is back. Keller had a quiet night, which is telling now that Holmes has returned and he goes back to number three option in the pass game. He will still get his red zone looks, but his numbers could take a slight hit moving forward though not enough of a hit to ever bench him.