JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: David Gerrard needs to feel uncomfortable with his job. Since the signing of Edwards, Gerrard has looked like the guy Byron Leftwich was run out of town for. Remember when he stole the job from Byron with his stellar play? Ironically, Gerrard has become quite similar to him. Ever since being the unquestioned QB he has played like someone with nothing to lose. Now, with someone breathing down his back (in theory at least) Gerrard has taken it up a notch. Mercedes Lewis is his favorite target....Lewis spoke in preseason how it was the first time he stayed in Jacksonville year round just so he and Gerrard could work together and it is showing. Lewis tied Jacksonville's TE record for TD's in a season this week and there should be more to come. Only play Mike Simms-Walker in fantasy when he makes a stink about not being involved. So far the two times he's complained are the two times he scored and put up good numbers. MJD is getting better, but he is still not what we have been accustomed to. He has always been able to beat teams even when they stack the box, but this year he seems to have lost just a bit. I think he is playing through a minor injury that is going to require surgery in the off-season but the official status is that he has none.
BUFFALO BILLS: They are much better with Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Defense just can't stop anybody and will be this team's killer game after game. Fred Jackson is the back you want here although Spiller will have his games here and there. Lee Evans dropped 84 yds. with a TD and is this team's top threat at WR. Consistency will be the problem though as they play in one of the toughest divisions. The best way to make decisions on when to use Bills players is obvious...only against weak and middle of the road defenses.
DENVER BRONCOS: Brandon Lloyd is for real and found a system he actually excels in. He seems to have found a second life in pass happy Denver and is a dependable start every week. As for Gaffney and Royal, it is a roll of the dice week to week who will be the number two worthy of starting. Denver has no run game and it will lose them games....you have to be able to run the ball in the NFL and until Denver finds a way to do that, they will continue to fail against good secondaries. When your top rusher only gains 26 yds. you are not going to win. Kyle Orton is a top tier QB....zero run game means passing all day and Orton has done just that, but also looked very effective.
BALTIMORE RAVENS: They have too many ways to beat you....In a game where no receiver surpassed 58 yds, Ray Rice ran for 133 yds and two scores. With the talent they have at receiver, any one of them can explode on any play. When you need to stay vigilant against them and keep Ray Rice at bay it becomes an issue very few teams will be able to handle this year. Couple that with a top defense, the Offense can afford off days and still win the game. Baltimore will make the playoffs and win the division.
KC CHIEFS: They finally came back down to earth this week although they didn't make it easy for Manning. This team is for real and have the ability to make a run for the division this year. The defense played great, but if you give Peyton enough chances, he will eventually make you pay. Even if it's just putting together drives that result in crucial field goals. The Chiefs beat themselves in my eyes. Bowe and Moeaki both let scores get away from them and critical 3rd down passes were dropped. Cassel actually looked good and put the ball where it was on the receivers to do something with it. They just didn't. Jamaal Charles is the fantasy back you want here out of the two and deserves to get the 16-8 carry split he did in this game every week. While he wasn't able to break away for one this week, he is the more explosive and dynamic ball carrier here. Thomas Jones was running behind a great offensive line in NY and while KC has a good one they are not the Jets. Other than Moeaki at TE, no Chief receiver will be trust worthy this year. Sell Bowe now if you can or wait until his next good outing and get value for him.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Manning had an off day is what you will hear, but it was more the result of a KC team that has a legitimate defense and some coaches that know what they're doing. Addai went down yet again with a shoulder injury and Mike Hart took over for him scoring the only TD of the day. Addai has only had one good game and should be on his way out next year. Both Donald Brown and Hart have more upside, but neither is a good fantasy candidate. Reggie Wayne will still get his solid and steady numbers every week regardless if Peyton is spreading the ball around. Which makes the question "Who is the WR outside of Wayne to have?" Garcon returned and had one more reception than Collie with nine more yards. While this was not Peyton's best day, it's going to be hard to know who he will look for in the red zone. Hopefully next week will answer questions, but the return of Garcon makes things murky. If you can still get some high value for Collie it may be time to sell him before it's too late. The team seems committed to Garcon despite Collie's season so far but we won't know how this plays out for another week or two. Better to sell than be stuck with a guy who is going to be a borderline number three WR.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: Maybe the Bucs are that good or maybe the Bengals are that bad. Regardless, we know for sure that 3-1 isn't all luck and that the defense in Tampa is back. They forced Carson into three turnovers in crucial moments, twice in the final minutes of the game that led to the Bucs winning on the road in Cinci. Mike Williams is this teams clear cut WR stud gaining 99 yds and a score. Aurelious Benn made an impact in this game as well, moving the chains and coming up with some key catches. As the season goes on, these two with Winslow could become a great trio. Morgan Spurlock keeps making key catches in crucial situations and Sammy Stroughter is dependable as they come. There is a young core here that is familiar of New Orleans three years ago. As long as Freeman is healthy, this team will be competitive in every game. The run game on the other hand has much to desire. Despite Raheem Morris' comments that Hugging and Blount would get more carries, he stayed committed to Cadillac whom again averaged only 3 ypr. At some point this team needs to realize that Huggins and Blount need to touch the ball more in order to beat opponents throughout the game and not just in the end. The defense is playing fast and opportunistic despite the lack of splash plays up front. They've had the pressure but are always a step short of a sack.
CINCINNATI BENGALS: While Palmer will get the flack for this game, it was his receivers that deserve a public beating. All the Bengals wide outs dropped key passes that either led to punts or turnovers. Palmer placed the ball in good spots where there was no excuse for the drops.While he did make two bad judgements on balls thrown, the Bengals had chances to score and move the ball but drops killed it. Cedric Benson pounded the Bucs for 144 yds but failed to score. The Bengals are playing nowhere to their potential and every week seems like some aspect of their team refuses to show up. Expected to compete for the division this year, the Bengals need some continuity and discipline. Everything we're seeing out of them points to Marvin Lewis. A change could be in store next year. The Bye week couldn't come at a better time for a team that needs to regroup.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: The offense is as potent as they come and the defense is strong yet this teams continues to beat themselves because of special teams play. Two blocked punts, one returned for a score the other a safety. The three fumbles hurt as well, but it was the special teams play early that set the tone for the Oakland defense and had them buzzing all game. Losing to Oakland has to hurt that much more since they not only lost to a divisional foe but lost the grip on the division on a day where Denver and KC lost. This is the second time special teams play have been a key factor in a loss. Malcom Floyd is the new Vincent Jackson...213 yards? Against the Oakland secondary? Floyd has Rivers trust and is by all means a weekly start who carries top tier value. Mike Tolbert scored the only rushing TD and looks to hold the role of red zone back with a healthy amount of carries as well. At this point, Tolbert carries more value than Mathews.
OAKLAND RAIDERS: Gradkowski left the game with an injury and Campbell seems to have won his starting job back regardless of how bad the injury is. He played a smart game and made precise passes in between the coverage where only his receivers could catch the ball. While Mike Bush didn't show McFadden speed, he did provide that hard nose running style expected and pounded his way to 104 yds. and a score. The Raiders have the talent defensively, but need consistency on offense if they're going to compete in the division. This could be the game they needed to build confidence, especially for the offensive line who actually looked a bit better this week. Zach Miller and Louis Murphy are still the only two ball catchers worth starting in fantasy, Miller being an every week play and Murphy nothing more than a flex depending on opponent.
CLEVELAND BROWNS: Seneca Wallace went down with an injury and Peyton Hillis had appeared on the injury report late last week which led to a 28 yard day for him. With Wallace expected to be out, Delhomme hurt as it is and Hillis nursing an injury that obviously affects his ability, the Browns are in shambles. Depending on how Hillis responds this week to treatment, no Browns players are starter worthy. Unless clear information comes out this week stating that Hillis is fully healthy, he may be a bench next week.
ATLANTA FALCONS: Atlanta continues to be the Turner White show and it continues to work. This is one of those teams who may only have limited resources but they know how to use them. Turner rushed for 140 yds. and White had 101 with a score. Matt Ryan continues to be a marginal fantasy QB and Gonzales has fallen off the map completely. Outside of the two mentioned, nobody can really be trusted. They are a team that can be tough when all aspects are firing but are very beatable when either Turner or White are kept in check.
DETROIT LIONS: All those close losses and bad beats led to frustration that was released on the Rams this week. Megatron and Burleson both caught TD passes, the defense was swarming and special teams special. While I expected a Lions win, nobody expected it to be so lopsided. The Lions continue to be one of the best losing teams and can put together a good run if the defense can come out like it did today. Best and Megatron continue to be the only two weekly starts in fantasy, but Burleson when healthy has proven he is a threat and should be considered a flex play every week depending on the match up.
ST. LOUIS RAMS: It was one of those games where everything went wrong. Especially losing Mike Clayton to a knee injury. Without Clayton, the Rams reverted to their old ways and it became the SJax show. If Clayton is out for any extended time it's going to spell bad news for the Rams. Amendola is a great second option, but he's not meant to be a primary WR. Especially not in fantasy unless it's a PPR league. Jackson continues to show he will get his regardless. Until we know on Clayton, Jackson is the only play here next week.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS: The Skins are quickly getting a reputation for being the most physical team in the NFL. Last week it was Vick and McCoy, this week its was Finley, Lee, and Rogers they banged up. Washington is by no means winning pretty and each game could have easily been a loss as it was a win. The leadership of Mcnabb seems to be paying off however as he continues to be this teams foundation and is showing poise under pressure. Though Santana Moss put up 118 yards, nobody on this team is lighting it up each week and fantasy plays should be made on a weekly match up only basis. The closest you have here to an every day guy is Cooley who will get his touches since Mcnabb loves to use the TE. Moss is a close second, but not a guarantee regardless of how he did this week.
GREEN BAY PACKERS: The loss of Finley made the passing game much more predictable but part of it was Washingtons pass defense. Brandon Jackson had his best game, posting 115yds. but is still far from dependable as a starting RB. The Packers keep coming up short the last few weeks and teams are sitting back on Rogers not allowing the big play. While Jackson did have a great game, the Packers need a dependable back who can carry more of a load so Rogers doesn't have to throw 50 times a game. Finley's injury did look serious so stay tuned on the MRI results. Get ready to pick up Lee if the news is as bad as I think it is.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: Victims of the biggest upset, the Saints have been a much lesser team than they were last year after five games. The receivers just seem to be playing a bit slower and and the plays that were there last year are missing. Meachem hasn't been a huge factor, Henderson has been hit or miss, and Colston has been far below expectations. Also, we're seeing how much of a factor Reggie Bush was in this offensive game plan. The fact that Brees was playing at less than 100% and no Pierre Thomas also has to be taken into account here. Right now Brees is the only solid, dependable fantasy play every week. Of course in this offense there will be value every week for the receivers, but none of them are as readable as last year.
ARIZONA CARDINALS: Max Hall is getting more credit that he deserves since it was the defense that won this game despite his mistakes. The running game continues to be below average and Fitzgerald continues to be dependable but far less than a fantasy stud. Jay Feely and Fitzgerald are the only two weekly starts and while this was a good win, it can't be expected to happen again. This team will fall back to earth quickly.
CAROLINA PANTHERS: No Steve Smith hurt them as bad as expected and both Williams and Stewart found a hard time getting anywhere against Chicago's defense. This team is bad but young. As long as Steve Smith is out, defenses will be able to stack the box without fear and will limit what the backs can do. Williams and Stewart are officially only starter worthy if you have a bye week or the run defense you are facing is that bad.
CHICAGO BEARS: No Jay Cutler, no problem. The Bears caught a break this week after losing Cutler to a concussion by facing a team that is rebuilding and nowhere close to the Bears talent level. Cutler should return next week and they will have two more good match ups coming at home in Seattle and Washington. Not much has changed here in terms of fantasy value.
NY GIANTS: Don't look now, but the Giants defense is playing up to their potential, feeding off of last week's performance against Chicago. The Giants held Arian Foster to 28 yds. rushing and caused headache for Matt Schaub. Hakeem Nicks has proved he will be a complete stud against lesser secondaries and is the clear cut number one receiver. Steve Smith finally woke up and looks to be a decent number three receiver from here on out. After last week, there seems to be a trend starting where Bradshaw gains the yardage and Bradshaw is called upon for the red zone duties. Jacobs got the only rushing score and this may be something to pay close attention to. Jacobs still isn't fantasy start worthy but what it does to Bradshaws value is more important. It may be time to unload Bradshaw while his value is at what I expect to be it's peak if Jacobs stays healthy.
HOUSTON TEXANS: The whole team struggled and this defense is starting to cause problems now that they are facing defenses that can keep Foster and Schaub in check. The good news here is that Andre Johnson got his and has proven once again what an amazing healer he is and his ability to play through injury. The fantasy plays are as normal here, but Foster owners should pick up Ward while they can as he is clearly showing he would be next in line.
DALLAS COWBOYS: I said early in the season that Phillips may be a candidate to lose his job by mid-season, and if things don't turn around next week vs. Minnesota I expect Jones to pull the trigger and hand the job open to Garrett who has been the favorite for a while now. Felix Jones backed me up and had his best game proving that the best fantasy analysis of this team is to listen to Jerry Jones. I was high on Roy Williams in the preseason only to fall off the wagon after the first two weeks but am officially back on. He has turned it around with Dez Bryant breathing down his neck. The Cowboys continue to not utilize Bryants potential though it's understandable considering the mouths Romo has to feed. Roy Williams has elevated to a legitimate start but be cautious against better secondaries.
TENNESSEE TITANS: Vince Young continues to baffle me on knowing how to read the guy. One week up the next bad. He needs to prove some type of consistency before he can be a trustworthy start every week. Until then he should stay as a back up on your team. Kenny Britt is showing consistency and could become quite a threat along with Nate Washington if Young can find a balance throwing the ball. Even if that does happen, the CJ2K will continue to be the center piece and limit their value since they will have to make the most of their touches every game.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Just when Alex Smith looked like the player he was expected to be as time was winding down, he comes out next series and promptly ruins it. Mike Singletary's job is in jeopardy but he has stated he will stick with Alex Smith despite the short comings. Why they don't give David Carr a shot is beyond me. Alex Smith has clearly proved he will never play past a certain level and the team is hurting for it. Crabtree broke out this week and you can expect more as the pass game focus' more around him and Vernon Davis. San Fran is realizing they are better when they both touch the ball, allowing Gore some rest. The next few weeks will be interesting as to if Singletary loses his job should they lose another two games. Expect to see Carr if Smith struggles against a hot Oakland team.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Kolb looked alot better after last weeks outing but did nothing to make a case for why he should keep the job once Vick returns. McCoy surprised by showing he could play through a fractured rib as if nothing was bothering him, rushing for 92 yards and a score. For as long as Vick is out you can bump up Celek to every week starter. Past that, Jackson, Maclin, and McCoy are the dependable starts regardless.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS: The Vikings came up short yet again, but there is much to be excited about even in the loss. Moss made an immediate impact catching a TD from Favre, and Harvin was able to excell back in his usual position, especially when lined up next to Moss. Peterson and Schiancoe did not have great nights although that was due to the Jets athletic Line Backers and stout run defense. The biggest concern here is why was Favre holding his throwing elbow on multiple occasions in the fourth quarter? At his age, an arm injury is the last thing you want to see. The Vikings have an interesting game next week against a team very much like them in the Cowboys. Given Dallas' weak pass defense, this could become a shoot out where it's fantasy heaven. Just stay on top of what Favre did to his elbow.
NY JETS: The Jets offense seemed to put it all together, having everyone contribute with all their play makers on the field at once. Shonn Greene rushed for a score behind LT who carried the load yet again. LT continues to defy, having a bounce in his step we haven't seen in two seasons. You have to wonder at this point if the AJ Smith battle wasn't wearing on him or if he just wanted out and figured it was best to not perform. Sanchez has evolved every week and is proving he can be trusted to throw the ball and not be babied. This only makes them that more potent now that Holmes is back. Keller had a quiet night, which is telling now that Holmes has returned and he goes back to number three option in the pass game. He will still get his red zone looks, but his numbers could take a slight hit moving forward though not enough of a hit to ever bench him.
Showing posts with label Jaguars. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jaguars. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Friday, October 8, 2010
FRIDAY GUT CHECK
A list of players whom may have a bad match-up or may be low on your list as far as options on your fantasy team whom for some reason you get the feeling in your gut to start them regardless.
Last week David Gerrard, Shonn Greene, the Carolina back field were called here.
MATT CASSEL KC: If you have a borderline starting QB this week consider Cassel. Yes, he has looked bad except for the game before the bye week. He was able to hook up with Dwayne Bowe and has been using Mokeai as a safety valve. The Colts are only middle of the road against the pass but worse against the run. Given the focus this Colts D will need to put on the run, there will be throws there in easy coverage. Cassel has had two weeks to prepare and look for Weiss to surprise the Colts with a more balanced attack than run heavy.
MIKE SIMMS-WALKER and DAVID GERRARD JAX: Much like the KC game, special attention will be paid an MJD and the Bills just don't have the horses to be effective in both protecting against him and the pass. Gerrard should have some confidence after last week and he knows one game won't be enough to secure his job. He can be a streaky player when motivated and focused. Simms-Walker on the other had has been a forgotten man, but last time he cried to the media and staff he became more involved in the game plan and scored. He was not happy after being shut down again last week and made it known, so look for Del Rio to satisfy his WR.
KAREEM HUGGINS TB: Everyone is on the Blount band wagon, but he will most likely be the goal line back and short yardage guy. While that is a good reason in itself to put him here, I like Huggins more due to his absolute speed. He ran a 4.28 40 and while that means nothing since game speed is different, anyone who has watched him knows he is one of the few who carry it over to the field in pads. Since the Bucs plan on splitting time between he and Cadillac Williams, he could have a very Jamaal Charles esque game. He is a change of pace back whom when thrown in there can catch a defense by surprise. The Bucs do run plays that focus on his strengths and will continue here. Not necessarily a start this week, but he could be a super sleeper that pays off huge if your studs are on a bye this week.
JONATHAN STEWART and DEANGELO WILLIAMS CAR: Carolina faces the Bears 6th rated rush defense, but the loss of Steve Smith this week and a rag tag bunch of WR's with a rookie QB means both backs will be playing multiple roles as pass catchers and runners. Look for both of them to be relied on heavily in the game which makes them solid starts due to sheer number of touches.
MIKE CRABTREE SF: Yes he was here last week and yes the Eagles have the 5th rated pass defense. However, he has improved from his 37 yd. performance in week 3 to 58 yds in week 4 and the game plan has been simplified to involve him more. He called out Alex Smith, and while normally not a good thing, Alex is trying to keep his job and better get the game changers on his side. The 49ers will have to pass since the Gore show will be limited this week and since this one could get out of hand if a decent Kolb shows up.
Last week David Gerrard, Shonn Greene, the Carolina back field were called here.
MATT CASSEL KC: If you have a borderline starting QB this week consider Cassel. Yes, he has looked bad except for the game before the bye week. He was able to hook up with Dwayne Bowe and has been using Mokeai as a safety valve. The Colts are only middle of the road against the pass but worse against the run. Given the focus this Colts D will need to put on the run, there will be throws there in easy coverage. Cassel has had two weeks to prepare and look for Weiss to surprise the Colts with a more balanced attack than run heavy.
MIKE SIMMS-WALKER and DAVID GERRARD JAX: Much like the KC game, special attention will be paid an MJD and the Bills just don't have the horses to be effective in both protecting against him and the pass. Gerrard should have some confidence after last week and he knows one game won't be enough to secure his job. He can be a streaky player when motivated and focused. Simms-Walker on the other had has been a forgotten man, but last time he cried to the media and staff he became more involved in the game plan and scored. He was not happy after being shut down again last week and made it known, so look for Del Rio to satisfy his WR.
KAREEM HUGGINS TB: Everyone is on the Blount band wagon, but he will most likely be the goal line back and short yardage guy. While that is a good reason in itself to put him here, I like Huggins more due to his absolute speed. He ran a 4.28 40 and while that means nothing since game speed is different, anyone who has watched him knows he is one of the few who carry it over to the field in pads. Since the Bucs plan on splitting time between he and Cadillac Williams, he could have a very Jamaal Charles esque game. He is a change of pace back whom when thrown in there can catch a defense by surprise. The Bucs do run plays that focus on his strengths and will continue here. Not necessarily a start this week, but he could be a super sleeper that pays off huge if your studs are on a bye this week.
JONATHAN STEWART and DEANGELO WILLIAMS CAR: Carolina faces the Bears 6th rated rush defense, but the loss of Steve Smith this week and a rag tag bunch of WR's with a rookie QB means both backs will be playing multiple roles as pass catchers and runners. Look for both of them to be relied on heavily in the game which makes them solid starts due to sheer number of touches.
MIKE CRABTREE SF: Yes he was here last week and yes the Eagles have the 5th rated pass defense. However, he has improved from his 37 yd. performance in week 3 to 58 yds in week 4 and the game plan has been simplified to involve him more. He called out Alex Smith, and while normally not a good thing, Alex is trying to keep his job and better get the game changers on his side. The 49ers will have to pass since the Gore show will be limited this week and since this one could get out of hand if a decent Kolb shows up.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
WEEK 5 PREVIEW
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at BUFFALO BILLS:
JAGS: David Gerrard knew he had to produce after the team made a statement by signing Edwards last week and produce he did. Leading the Jags to a 31-28 win in his most productive game so far. MJD showed he may be getting healthy and may have found his rhythm. This week he faces the league's worst rush defense allowing 172 RYPG. Expect Drew to continue where he left off, most likely breaking the century mark again with at least a score. Mike Simms-Walker was shut out once again last week and Gerrard just isn't showing the chemistry they had last year. The Bills have faced Brandon Marshall, Randy Moss, and Greg Jennings not allowing anything more than 53 yards receiving. The Bills do love giving up big games to TE's however and Mercedes Lewis should be able to put up his best game of the year yardage wise along with a score.
BILLS: The Jags defense faces a reverse problem, ranking 30th against the pass and 13th against the run. But the trade of Marshawn Lynch on Tuesday I think actually makes it easier for the opposition. Planning a defensive game plan around two rather than three backs will make things easier. Especially considering Lynch was the team's leading rusher with 167 yards. The Bills have allowed 11 sacks in four games and the line continues to be an issue. If the Bills have a hope, it will be because Fitzpatrick has just enough time to find his receivers. His longest pass has gone for 37 yards and is averaging only 5.8 yds. per pass so don't expect any big numbers here regardless of the rankings. Due to the fact they will be throwing the ball playing catch up, there may be a decent game here to be had for either Johnson, Parrish, or Lee but good luck guessing which one. Look for other options.
This game should be close due to the commitment to the run games on both sides of the ball which will eat the clock. The Bills are always at their best at home and while a win wouldn't surprise me it is not likely given their youth and lack of talent. JAGS 23- BILLS 13
FANTASY STARTS: JAGS: MJD (18 for 117yds. 1 TD) Mercedes Lewis ( 6 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
BILLS: Jackson (14 for 60 yds. 1 TD) S. Johnson (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Mike Simms-Walker....sad that he's is now sleeper status, but the Bills had not faced a truly talented rusher until last week and we all saw what LT and Greene did which allowed Braylon Edwards to be the first number one receiver to put up 86yds. and a score. Simms-Walker will be a high risk high reward play.
DENVER BRONCOS at BALTIMORE RAVENS:
BRONCOS: Kyle Orton has been on fire and is for now ranked in the upper tier of QB's. The Broncos are a passing team and they have to be since they are dead last averaging 55 yds. RPG. Thus far, they have been able to get away with it but they are facing the 1st ranked pass defense in Baltimore whom are allowing only 14 PPG. There is no way they are able to shore up the run game in a week leaving Mcdaniels to be very creative in finding ways for Denver to move the ball. The good news is that Denver has three very capable WR's whom have all taken turns standing out. The most consistent of them being Lloyd who is where the Ravens focus will be. Look for Mcdaniels to try and get Royal in the middle of the field often and incorporate Graham and Gronkowski in this game to help on those short yardage situations. Moreno will need to have his best showing and set the tone early in hopes Baltimore can eat the clock. He may have relative success too since I don't see the Ravens being as agressive as normal given Orton has the weapons to expose weak coverage.
BALTIMORE: The Ravens were the first team to beat the Steeler defense last week and while Denver is ranked 17th and 12th in passing and rushing, they are not the Steelers. The Ravens are just starting to hit their stride and should have Ray Rice in a healthier situation than last week. Housh, Mason, and Boldin are proving that you won't be able to cover all the Raven weapons at once so whover you ignore will make you pay. Add to that Todd Heap who is actually second on the team with 188 receiving yards. The Ravens look to be just getting their chemistry going and defining roles for their players. They will be a match up problem for defenses all year if they can stay healthy.
A battle against wills, something will have to give between the Broncos pass attack and the Ravens Pass defense. Given the Broncos have yet to face a top rated, complete defense like this, count on the Ravens winning this one. RAVENS 26-BRONCOS 20.
FANTASY STARTS: BRONCOS: Moreno (11 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Royal ( 4 for 65 1 TD)
RAVENS: Rice (15 for 70 yds. 1 TD/ 3 rec for 40 yds) Mason (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Heap ( 4 for 60 yds 1 TD)
SLEEPER: D. Graham DEN....given the blanket coverage the Baltimore secondary provides and the focus on the WR trio of Den, Graham could actually post good numbers if Moreno is able to at least force the Ravens to respect the possibility of a run. Super deep sleeper here that could factor into the game.
GREEN BAY PACKERS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS:
PACKERS: Surprisingly, the Packers are only 14th in passing offense and have not looked like the explosive attack we expected. Part of that has been the efficiency of the defense in giving them short fields (unless they're playing Chicago). This week should help the passing game get in better sync as the Redskins defense ranks 30th against the pass allowing over 300 PYPG. The loss of Grant is proving to be part of their slow start since teams are playing cover 2 without worry of the run game being a threat. Kuhn has at least brought the Packers back to respectable in the run game, adding a dimension they have lacked. The Skins are 14th against the run allowing 101 YPG so this is a game the Packers can employ a balanced attack. If Jackson or Kuhn are able to have success in keeping the defense honest, this could become a blow out by the third quarter.
REDSKINS: Coming off an emotional but physical game with the Eagles, the Redskins really did little to prove to me they have what it takes to competed against top defenses. Here is their first shot to do do. After facing the likes of Houston, Dallas, and Philadelphia's secondaries, Mcnabb faces his first real test against the Packers 7th ranked pass defense. The Pack are weak against the run allowing 118 RYPG. but with Portis out and the lack of any weapons past Cooley, the Packers will be able to focus on the run game more. Torain has been the lone bright spot in the run game and will be the key to the Skins keeping competitive in this one.
Washington was shopping D. Thomas on Tuesday and have been looking for some help in the pass game. Cooley is the only steady pass catcher, but with a team like Green Bay his damage will be limited. The Redskins are too one dimensional and take away the TD called back against Dallas they would be 1-3. The Packers handle Washington easily. PACKERS 31-REDSKINS 20.
FANTASY STARTS: PACKERS: Rogers ( 310 yds. 3 TD) Finley (5 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Driver ( 6 for 80 yds 1 TD) Jennings (4 for 90 1 TD) Kuhn (14 for 70 yds 1 TD)
REDSKINS: Cooley ( 6 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Moss ( 4 for 60 yds.) Torain (16 for 80 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Keiland Williams WASH....with Portis all but ruled out officially, somebody will have to spell Torain. Williams has the speed but has yet to be trusted by Shanny. Thrust to 2nd on the depth chart, this will be Williams chance to shine since the run game will be the most effective part of the Redskin attack.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS:
CHIEFS: If you were showed the two team records on paper and asked which belonged to which, none of us would have made the right choice. The Chiefs have done it with their run attack and their 5th ranked Rush defense and 2nd ranked defense in points allowed. They are only allowing 4.9 yards per play and have allowed only 12 third down conversions on 25 attempts. Offensively, Cassel had finally had a decent game passing and then came the bye week. I am expecting given the bye that this will only help his cause in preparing to play against 15th ranked Pass defense of the Colts. Who is really salivating are Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles. The Colts are 29th against the run, allowing just a hair under 150 YPG. Both guys are great plays here and maybe Dwayne Bowe.This could be the first RBBC where you would start both backs in most games. Even with the bye to prep, I lack confidence in Cassel given his very poor showings. That said, I do like Tony Moeaki who has been Cassel's blankie and is their leading receiver.
COLTS: The Colts are about where we would have expected, 2nd in Passing YPG and 29th in RYPG. The defense is not as stout as last year, ranking 15th against the Pass and 29th against the Rush. I think the pass ranking is a bit inflated when you consider the efficiency of Gerrard and Schaub against them and how Orton had them beat but failed to convert in the Red Zone. Though they're 2-2 on paper, they are showing like a 1-3 team thus far. It's Peyton so of course he will turn it around, but the absolute lack of a run game is allowing teams to sit back. Collie has been phenomenal this year in Garcon's absence and has locked up the number two target role. Though he has only one less reception than Reggie Wayne but more yards. Wayne has looked just a tad slower this year and I am wondering if there is a conditioning problem for the Colts. Clark, Collie, Garcon,Brown and Wayne have all been bothered by something this year, even if brief. This is a good match up passing wise for the Colts and all your starters should be in play except for Addai if you have options though he could bring in a score at any moment after the passing game gets him close. The scores will be there but when is the question.
I see this game being a complete toss up due to the KC bye and the Colts sluggish start by their standards. It is at home for Peyton though and the Colts are strong there. With Cassel's pass issues, the noise, and a lack of chemistry as it is with his wide outs, the one or two turnovers he will give up are the difference.
COLTS 23-CHIEFS 17.
FANTASY STARTS: KC: Charles ( 10 for 75 yds. 1 TD) Jones (15 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Moeaki ( 4 for 50 yds.)
COLTS: All your guys except Addai if you have a better option this week. If it is close between Addai and another back though start Addai since he has more upside and will have chances at the goal line.
SLEEPER: D. Mcluster KC...Weiss has committed to using his speed in different placements and he will be needed. Much like Percy Harvin last year, Mcluster is that wild card whom is hard to game plan for. If you do, then that leaves someone else open, if you don't, he will hurt you.
ST.LOUIS RAMS at DETROIT LIONS: RAMS: Much like the Lions, the Rams have been the most entertaining losing team to watch this year only....they are not a losing team anymore. Clayton and Amendola have given this team extra dimension, allowing Jackson some running room for the first time in years. Bradford has been impressive in his rookie season thus far in terms of his Red Zone decision making. He has a rating of 72.3 which isn't that bad at all for a rookie QB. The biggest help to this team has been the defense.While they are ranked 21st against the pass and 20th against the rush, they are more balanced than last season and have taken a step in the right direction which is amazing considering the lack of big name talent. They are winning the little batlles such as third down conversions, allowing opponents only 17 conversions on 55 attempts and holding the opposition to 13 PPG which is good for 4th in the NFL. That is the only stat which matters, and why they have been in every game this year and are .500. Amendola is a solid 3rd WR/Flex start, especially in PPR and Clayton and Jackson are must starts. Bradford has put up respectable fantasy numbers and should be good for about 15 to 18 points here.
LIONS: The Lions are only 10 points away from being 3-1 and have been an exciting team to watch. Even without Stafford, the Lions are 7th in Passing YPG and have a legitimate play maker at RB in Jhavid Best. The issue is on defense where their averages per game rank no better than 25th. I am expecting all the Lions offensive players to be quality starts in this one. Burleson will return this week and figures to be a threat.
This could be one of the most exciting games to watch this weekend. Two offensive teams against defenses that allow yardage. The slight edge goes to the Rams whom have shown a knack for allowing the yards but not the points. That said, this will be the best match up the Lions have faced all year and they are at home. St. Louis has had only one road trip this year and could find it a bit harder in a hostile environment.
DETROIT 28-ST.LOUIS 24.
FANTASY STARTS: ST.LOUIS: Bradford (280 yds. 2 TD) Clayton (6 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Amendola (9 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Jackson (17 for 90 yds. 1 TD)
DETROIT: Hill (300 yds. 2 TD) Best (10 for 55 yds./3 for 40 yds. 1 TD) C. Johnson ( 6 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Nate Burleson DET....His first week back comes at a time where he will have a good match up and is that extra piece which allows him to get open while defenses are focused on Megatron and Best.
CHICAGO BEARS at CAROLINA PANTHERS: BEARS: Jay Cutler suffered a concussion before the half last week and as of Wednesday, Chicago papers and Lovie Smith expect him to play after practicing.(UPDATE: Cutler has been ruled out and Collins gets the start) Thankfully, he will face a mediocre defense this week in Carolina. The offensive line should hold up better here since the Panthers don't have Osi and Tuck playing for them. Julius Peppers returns to his former team and as if he wasn't already looking great, he will have extra incentive to play his best. Carolina does have decent CB coverage but they are not deep enough to handle Forte out of the back field. I would expect Carolina to drop two LB in coverage and leave Beason focused on the run game. Forte and Olsen will be the factors to the game as Hester and Knox should be handled fairly well in coverage.
PANTHERS: No Steve Smith this week with a high ankle sprain and no Dwayne Jarrett with....well with no team. Clausen gave his best effort last week but is still fighting accuracy issues. He has all the tools but is a rookie with a bright future. He is going to have it even more rough now with no Steve Smith. Expect more Jonathan Stewart running routes and flares in two back sets. Chicago's defense has been swarming to the ball and are 6th in rush defense which will limit Deangelo Williams production. David Clowney is officially their best option and will most likely be thrust into starting only days after being signed. Overall it's recipe for disaster in Carolina when you throw in the Chicago let down last week and their need to bounce back.
Chicago will no doubt be in whole different frame of mind and will be looking to relieve the embarrassment of last week. The Panthers have not faced a defense this fast or disciplined yet , with the closest comparison coming against the Bucs who racked up 4 sacks on them. This one shouldn't even be close.
BEARS 24-PANTHERS 13. (UPDATE: Without Cutler, Collins seemed to have too much rust. Drop all Bears rankings down except for Forte!!!!)
FANTASY STARTS: BEARS: Olsen (6 for 70 yds 1 TD) Forte ( 13 for 55 yds./ 4 for 35 yds. 1 TD)
PANTHERS: J. Stewart ( 7 for 35 yds./ 5 for 40 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Jeff King CAR.....King and Rosario should get plenty of looks given the lack of receivers. Clowney may factor in here but with only a few days to learn the playbook don't expect much.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at CINCINNATI BENGALS:
BUCS: The Bucs strength so far has been their passing game, and they face the Bengals 9th ranked pass defense. Knowing that the Bengals are mediocre against the run, Morris announced Kareem Huggins and Legarrette Blount will split carries with Cadillac who has not been good this year averaging under 3 YPC. The Bucs WR's will face a secondary much like Pittsburgh under 3 YPC. The Bucs WR's will face a secondary much like Pittsburgh in ways and will need to get physical. Best bet here is Mike Williams to put up decent yardage and maybe a score. I expect the Bucs to come out running the ball often as long as they don't fall behind early and use the pass once the Bengals creep up.Winslow is the wild card here since he will need to pose a threat and open up the WR's. They have had two weeks to prepare for this and last year after the bye beat Green Bay though it was in Tampa. Ball control and no turnovers are key for the Bucs to win.
BENGALS: The Bengals are seeing what the lack of a run game will do regardless of who you have at WR. I've never been a fan of Cedric Benson because of his inability to be consistently good and so far he has proven me right. The Bucs have a good secondary ranked 10th against the pass but are weaker against the run. Cedric Benson will be called on to carry the under achieving Bengals and I think it's only a matter of time before Scott gets even carries with him since Scott is averaging 4.9 YPC to Bensons 3.3.
This is a game that should be close if both teams play to their abilities on both sides of the ball. Given the Bengals loss last week in Cleveland, they should come out more disciplined and play better at home. The Bucs have their toughest road game to date here and come up short. BENGALS 20-BUCS 17.
FANTASY STARTS: BUCS: Mike Williams (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Winslow ( 5 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
BENGALS: Benson ( 16 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Ochocinco ( 6 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: K. Huggins TB....we will finally see if the preseason star can carry it over to the regular season after missing 3 games due to injury. He has 4.2 speed and the abilitiy to break the big one. He will receive split time with Cadillac and if hot will wind up getting the biggest percentage of carries.
ATLANTA FALCONS at CLEVELAND BROWNS:
FALCONS: Good at home and bad on the road so far for Atlanta. Jason Snelling and not Turner has been the more efficient back of the two and Matt Ryan still has only Roddy White as a reliable pass option since Gonzales looks to have slowed a bit this year. The good news is Ryan faces the 24th ranked pass defense this week and the Browns are 17th against the run. The Falcons haven't looked amazing, but they are efficient, ranking 10th in passing and 4th in rushing through a concerted effort. In the end, looks don't matter and they are getting it done. Roddy White is a solid play here as is Matt Ryan. You have to start Turner, but if you don't have him but have Snelling he should be a good play as well depending on who your 2nd RB is.
BROWNS: Delhomme is expected to practice this week but the Browns have proven they are a better team with Wallace. The emergence of Peyton Hillis has helped ease the pass game woes and even with teams knowing what to expect, Hillis is running all over them. Coming off a big win against the Bengals, look for Cleveland to carry the momentum over to this game. Then again, I thought Chicago would do well after beating Green Bay. Cleveland has Cribbs giving them good field placement on special teams which has contributed to their success. The lack of any help past Cribbs is this teams weakness and the Falcons are good enough to limit Hillis productivity.
Cleveleand is strong at home, but the Falcons have too many options offensively and are a decent enough defense where Hillis won't run wild on them. The Falcons proved their mettle last week trailing all game until the final two minutes and scrapping out a win. Atlanta wins on the foot of Bryant again, but not as dramatic.
ATLANTA 20-BROWNS 17.
FANTASY STARTS: FALCONS: White (6 for 75 yds. 1 TD) Turner (15 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
BROWNS: Hillis (16 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Cribbs (4 for 50 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: B. Watson CLE...He has been a favorite target on this team and is essentially their number two receiver. The Atlanta LB will need to respect the run and may allow Watson to sneak behind them on a few throws.
NEW YORK GIANTS at HOUSTON TEXANS:
GIANTS: Bradshaw seems good to go this week after both he and Jacobs having their best games of the year. Of course, they had plenty of time to run given how much the Chicago defense was on the field. This week they face the 2nd ranked rush defense but the 32nd pass defense. Good news for Nicks, Manningham and Smith owners. The Giants are not afraid to throw and last weeks run explosion shouldn't be read into too much. The Texans will apply pressure and Manning will have success against this horrible secondary. If you have to start a Giants back, you have to go with Bradshaw and his outside speed. Brian Cushing returns this week for Houston so this run defense will only improve.
TEXANS: The bad news is Schaub faces the 2nd ranked pass defense of the Giants, the good news is the Giants rank 22nd against the run. Andre Johnson is still nursing his ankle and this is as good a week as any for Arian Foster to continue carrying this team in the run game. Not only will he move the ball, but it will alleviate the pass protection since the Giants will be forced to defend him and give Schaub some breathing room and allow routes to develop. Foster should wind up having another top five week and Johnson's rehab should be monitored on how much he practices this week. You can never bench the guy, but at least know his health risks since it will affect how much of a chance you take starting other WR's on your team this week.
The Giants will face a whole different team this week and on their only road trip this year the Colts pounded them. If Johnson is healthier than last week, the Texans will have more than the Giants can handle. Foster alone will be enough to cause problems and you don't want Schaub having space to throw in.
TEXANS 28-GIANTS 20.
FANTASY STARTS: GIANTS: Manning ( 310yds 3 TD) Nicks (6 for 90 yds 1 TD) Manningham ( 5 for 55 yds. 1 TD)
TEXANS: Foster (15 for 90 yds. 1 TD/ 2 for 40yds.) Johnson ( 6 for 80 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: O. Daniels....while the Giants are solid against the pass, they have shown weakness against athletic TE's.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at ARIZONA CARDINALS:
SAINTS: The Saints are winning, but are a shadow of what they were last year after four games. Carolina played them well but they face a Cards team in disarray who ranks 23rd against the pass and 30th against the run. Meachem was on the field for 28 snaps last week and is slowly becoming more involved. Henderson is the definitive number two but both he and Colston have not jumped out to the start we all expected. The loss of Reggie Bush is hurting the Saints more than anyone would have thought, but Lance Moore has essentially filled that role and Chris Ivory looks to be a good replacement. Pierre Thomas did not practice on Wednesday and may not make it come game time so Ivory may have another quality start here. Against the Cardinals all players are must starts. Even Meachem who I think breaks out here.
CARDS: Max Hall has been named the started because he led a drive last week which resulted in a field goal. Pretty sad state of affairs. Fitzgerald will only be dependable as a solid number two WR this year, at least until Hall proves he can do the job or until Fitz gets some weapons spread out with him. Wells and Hightower are week to week starts and it's a crapshoot which one has a better game. Other than Fitz, nobody is worthy of starting.
The Cards keep playing with the line up and keep falling flat. The last team this defense needs to face are the Saints whom are light years ahead of them after facing them in the playoff's just a year ago. Easy win for the Saints. SAINTS 31-CARDS 17.
FANTASY STARTS: SAINTS.....play em if you got em. CARDS: Fitzgerald (5 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Wells (13 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
TENNESSEE TITANS at DALLAS COWBOYS:
TITANS: Their 13th ranked pass defense showed holes against the Broncos pass attack but overall did a good job considering the opponent. The Titans are 30th in Pass offense and 27th in total yards. Past CJ there is nobody producing. Vince Young has looked like the guy pre-benching instead of how he looked the second half of last year. He has been prone to starting out slow, so giving up on him is way too early. K. Britt has shown he is growing into a threat they can use but teams have been able to get away with putting their attention on keeping CJ somewhat normal. Not good news facing the Dallas 8th ranked rush defense.Young need to be able to exploit the coverage mis-matches and has yet to do so.
COWBOYS: Much like the Broncos, the Cowboys have great weapons to attack the Titans 13th pass defense but the key is they have a better run game. Albeit not that much better, but at 26th it's much more effective than Denvers. Dallas' 4th ranked passing offense is going to pose problems for the Titans which will allow Felix Jones and Barber to have open lanes. Jerry Jones stated he wants Felix more involved and what the boss wants the boss gets. Dallas also had two weeks to prep for this game and will come out strong.
Dallas' D matches up well against the Titans one dimensional attack and while CJ will get his yards and a score, Dallas is able to hold them in check. COWBOYS 24-TITANS 17
FANTASY STARTS: DALLAS: Austin (8 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Bryant ( 5 for 60 1 TD) Barber (12 for 55 1 TD) TITANS: CJ (16 for 100 yds. 1 TD) Britt (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Felix Jones....Jones has the better speed and is more of a pass threat should the Titans be able to put clamps on Miles Austin. Either way I see Jones having a productive day in total yardage and could be the one to score instead of Barber.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at OAKLAND RAIDERS:
CHARGERS: Mike Tolbert has stolen some of Mathews thunder, causing Norv to name him a split chance goal line carry and after last week he will probably be eating into Mathews touches. Rivers has been nothing short of amazing, giving the Chargers the 3rd ranked pass offense. Even with the rivalry between them and Oakland and the Raiders 3rd ranked pass defense, I like Rivers to be effective in a game that should have the Chargers offense on the field for most the game. Given McFaddens injury, the Raiders 6th ranked run offense will take a hit and San Diego already would've been a tough match up being ranked 7th against the rush. Tolbert will see enough time to be a good fantasy play as will Mathews and all other offensive players.
RAIDERS: McFadden looks to not be available, Murphy's shoulder limited him to five yards last week and the Offensive line gave Gradkowski zero time to let anything develop. That was against Houston's horrible secondary. Had it not been for Miller it would have been far worse. This week, the opponent is far more stout against the pass and given the injuries it looks like a bad time to face a divisional foe with as much power as the Chargers. No real plays here for Oakland guys on your team.
The Chargers should have a fairly long possession time here since Oakland's defense will not be able to last with all the 3 and outs. CHARGERS 28-OAKLAND 14.
FANTASY STARTS: SD: All of them, including Naanee and Tolbert. OAKLAND: Miller (7 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Bush ( 15 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEEPER: Heyward-Bey...Given Murphy's and McFadden's injuries, the Raiders will be playing from behind and will need another weapon with the focus on Miller.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at SF 49ers:
EAGLES: Kolb looked rusty last week in relief but should look much better after a full week of first team snaps. His start is good news for Celek owners like myself and if he can get a rhythm going he could spread the ball around making Jackson and Maclin solid starts. Mike Bell will likely be the lead back since McCoy has a busted rib and will cause Kolb to have to throw since Bell has seen nothing but limited action. The Eagles will be throwing often in this game making all WR and Celek good options this week on the road.
49ERS: Crabtree called out Smith, Singletary called out his defense, and the team is starting to point fingers at each other as Singletary sits on the hot seat. The Gore show has proven to be not enough, and they face a team who has equally under achieved this year and has had controversies of their own. The Eagles weakness is their pass defense and the 49ers may be able to take advantage of this depending on which Alex Smith comes out.
I will take the team with less chaos who is still in the hunt within their division. EAGLES 24-49ERS 17.
FANTASY STARTS: EAGLES: Celek (5 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Jackson ( 7 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Maclin ( 4 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
49ERS: Gore (15 for 60 yds./ 5 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Davis (6 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Crabtree...He has progressed slowly and with the team looking to get him more involved may have a decent game against this secondary.
JAGS: David Gerrard knew he had to produce after the team made a statement by signing Edwards last week and produce he did. Leading the Jags to a 31-28 win in his most productive game so far. MJD showed he may be getting healthy and may have found his rhythm. This week he faces the league's worst rush defense allowing 172 RYPG. Expect Drew to continue where he left off, most likely breaking the century mark again with at least a score. Mike Simms-Walker was shut out once again last week and Gerrard just isn't showing the chemistry they had last year. The Bills have faced Brandon Marshall, Randy Moss, and Greg Jennings not allowing anything more than 53 yards receiving. The Bills do love giving up big games to TE's however and Mercedes Lewis should be able to put up his best game of the year yardage wise along with a score.
BILLS: The Jags defense faces a reverse problem, ranking 30th against the pass and 13th against the run. But the trade of Marshawn Lynch on Tuesday I think actually makes it easier for the opposition. Planning a defensive game plan around two rather than three backs will make things easier. Especially considering Lynch was the team's leading rusher with 167 yards. The Bills have allowed 11 sacks in four games and the line continues to be an issue. If the Bills have a hope, it will be because Fitzpatrick has just enough time to find his receivers. His longest pass has gone for 37 yards and is averaging only 5.8 yds. per pass so don't expect any big numbers here regardless of the rankings. Due to the fact they will be throwing the ball playing catch up, there may be a decent game here to be had for either Johnson, Parrish, or Lee but good luck guessing which one. Look for other options.
This game should be close due to the commitment to the run games on both sides of the ball which will eat the clock. The Bills are always at their best at home and while a win wouldn't surprise me it is not likely given their youth and lack of talent. JAGS 23- BILLS 13
FANTASY STARTS: JAGS: MJD (18 for 117yds. 1 TD) Mercedes Lewis ( 6 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
BILLS: Jackson (14 for 60 yds. 1 TD) S. Johnson (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Mike Simms-Walker....sad that he's is now sleeper status, but the Bills had not faced a truly talented rusher until last week and we all saw what LT and Greene did which allowed Braylon Edwards to be the first number one receiver to put up 86yds. and a score. Simms-Walker will be a high risk high reward play.
DENVER BRONCOS at BALTIMORE RAVENS:
BRONCOS: Kyle Orton has been on fire and is for now ranked in the upper tier of QB's. The Broncos are a passing team and they have to be since they are dead last averaging 55 yds. RPG. Thus far, they have been able to get away with it but they are facing the 1st ranked pass defense in Baltimore whom are allowing only 14 PPG. There is no way they are able to shore up the run game in a week leaving Mcdaniels to be very creative in finding ways for Denver to move the ball. The good news is that Denver has three very capable WR's whom have all taken turns standing out. The most consistent of them being Lloyd who is where the Ravens focus will be. Look for Mcdaniels to try and get Royal in the middle of the field often and incorporate Graham and Gronkowski in this game to help on those short yardage situations. Moreno will need to have his best showing and set the tone early in hopes Baltimore can eat the clock. He may have relative success too since I don't see the Ravens being as agressive as normal given Orton has the weapons to expose weak coverage.
BALTIMORE: The Ravens were the first team to beat the Steeler defense last week and while Denver is ranked 17th and 12th in passing and rushing, they are not the Steelers. The Ravens are just starting to hit their stride and should have Ray Rice in a healthier situation than last week. Housh, Mason, and Boldin are proving that you won't be able to cover all the Raven weapons at once so whover you ignore will make you pay. Add to that Todd Heap who is actually second on the team with 188 receiving yards. The Ravens look to be just getting their chemistry going and defining roles for their players. They will be a match up problem for defenses all year if they can stay healthy.
A battle against wills, something will have to give between the Broncos pass attack and the Ravens Pass defense. Given the Broncos have yet to face a top rated, complete defense like this, count on the Ravens winning this one. RAVENS 26-BRONCOS 20.
FANTASY STARTS: BRONCOS: Moreno (11 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Royal ( 4 for 65 1 TD)
RAVENS: Rice (15 for 70 yds. 1 TD/ 3 rec for 40 yds) Mason (5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Heap ( 4 for 60 yds 1 TD)
SLEEPER: D. Graham DEN....given the blanket coverage the Baltimore secondary provides and the focus on the WR trio of Den, Graham could actually post good numbers if Moreno is able to at least force the Ravens to respect the possibility of a run. Super deep sleeper here that could factor into the game.
GREEN BAY PACKERS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS:
PACKERS: Surprisingly, the Packers are only 14th in passing offense and have not looked like the explosive attack we expected. Part of that has been the efficiency of the defense in giving them short fields (unless they're playing Chicago). This week should help the passing game get in better sync as the Redskins defense ranks 30th against the pass allowing over 300 PYPG. The loss of Grant is proving to be part of their slow start since teams are playing cover 2 without worry of the run game being a threat. Kuhn has at least brought the Packers back to respectable in the run game, adding a dimension they have lacked. The Skins are 14th against the run allowing 101 YPG so this is a game the Packers can employ a balanced attack. If Jackson or Kuhn are able to have success in keeping the defense honest, this could become a blow out by the third quarter.
REDSKINS: Coming off an emotional but physical game with the Eagles, the Redskins really did little to prove to me they have what it takes to competed against top defenses. Here is their first shot to do do. After facing the likes of Houston, Dallas, and Philadelphia's secondaries, Mcnabb faces his first real test against the Packers 7th ranked pass defense. The Pack are weak against the run allowing 118 RYPG. but with Portis out and the lack of any weapons past Cooley, the Packers will be able to focus on the run game more. Torain has been the lone bright spot in the run game and will be the key to the Skins keeping competitive in this one.
Washington was shopping D. Thomas on Tuesday and have been looking for some help in the pass game. Cooley is the only steady pass catcher, but with a team like Green Bay his damage will be limited. The Redskins are too one dimensional and take away the TD called back against Dallas they would be 1-3. The Packers handle Washington easily. PACKERS 31-REDSKINS 20.
FANTASY STARTS: PACKERS: Rogers ( 310 yds. 3 TD) Finley (5 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Driver ( 6 for 80 yds 1 TD) Jennings (4 for 90 1 TD) Kuhn (14 for 70 yds 1 TD)
REDSKINS: Cooley ( 6 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Moss ( 4 for 60 yds.) Torain (16 for 80 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Keiland Williams WASH....with Portis all but ruled out officially, somebody will have to spell Torain. Williams has the speed but has yet to be trusted by Shanny. Thrust to 2nd on the depth chart, this will be Williams chance to shine since the run game will be the most effective part of the Redskin attack.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS:
CHIEFS: If you were showed the two team records on paper and asked which belonged to which, none of us would have made the right choice. The Chiefs have done it with their run attack and their 5th ranked Rush defense and 2nd ranked defense in points allowed. They are only allowing 4.9 yards per play and have allowed only 12 third down conversions on 25 attempts. Offensively, Cassel had finally had a decent game passing and then came the bye week. I am expecting given the bye that this will only help his cause in preparing to play against 15th ranked Pass defense of the Colts. Who is really salivating are Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles. The Colts are 29th against the run, allowing just a hair under 150 YPG. Both guys are great plays here and maybe Dwayne Bowe.This could be the first RBBC where you would start both backs in most games. Even with the bye to prep, I lack confidence in Cassel given his very poor showings. That said, I do like Tony Moeaki who has been Cassel's blankie and is their leading receiver.
COLTS: The Colts are about where we would have expected, 2nd in Passing YPG and 29th in RYPG. The defense is not as stout as last year, ranking 15th against the Pass and 29th against the Rush. I think the pass ranking is a bit inflated when you consider the efficiency of Gerrard and Schaub against them and how Orton had them beat but failed to convert in the Red Zone. Though they're 2-2 on paper, they are showing like a 1-3 team thus far. It's Peyton so of course he will turn it around, but the absolute lack of a run game is allowing teams to sit back. Collie has been phenomenal this year in Garcon's absence and has locked up the number two target role. Though he has only one less reception than Reggie Wayne but more yards. Wayne has looked just a tad slower this year and I am wondering if there is a conditioning problem for the Colts. Clark, Collie, Garcon,Brown and Wayne have all been bothered by something this year, even if brief. This is a good match up passing wise for the Colts and all your starters should be in play except for Addai if you have options though he could bring in a score at any moment after the passing game gets him close. The scores will be there but when is the question.
I see this game being a complete toss up due to the KC bye and the Colts sluggish start by their standards. It is at home for Peyton though and the Colts are strong there. With Cassel's pass issues, the noise, and a lack of chemistry as it is with his wide outs, the one or two turnovers he will give up are the difference.
COLTS 23-CHIEFS 17.
FANTASY STARTS: KC: Charles ( 10 for 75 yds. 1 TD) Jones (15 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Moeaki ( 4 for 50 yds.)
COLTS: All your guys except Addai if you have a better option this week. If it is close between Addai and another back though start Addai since he has more upside and will have chances at the goal line.
SLEEPER: D. Mcluster KC...Weiss has committed to using his speed in different placements and he will be needed. Much like Percy Harvin last year, Mcluster is that wild card whom is hard to game plan for. If you do, then that leaves someone else open, if you don't, he will hurt you.
ST.LOUIS RAMS at DETROIT LIONS: RAMS: Much like the Lions, the Rams have been the most entertaining losing team to watch this year only....they are not a losing team anymore. Clayton and Amendola have given this team extra dimension, allowing Jackson some running room for the first time in years. Bradford has been impressive in his rookie season thus far in terms of his Red Zone decision making. He has a rating of 72.3 which isn't that bad at all for a rookie QB. The biggest help to this team has been the defense.While they are ranked 21st against the pass and 20th against the rush, they are more balanced than last season and have taken a step in the right direction which is amazing considering the lack of big name talent. They are winning the little batlles such as third down conversions, allowing opponents only 17 conversions on 55 attempts and holding the opposition to 13 PPG which is good for 4th in the NFL. That is the only stat which matters, and why they have been in every game this year and are .500. Amendola is a solid 3rd WR/Flex start, especially in PPR and Clayton and Jackson are must starts. Bradford has put up respectable fantasy numbers and should be good for about 15 to 18 points here.
LIONS: The Lions are only 10 points away from being 3-1 and have been an exciting team to watch. Even without Stafford, the Lions are 7th in Passing YPG and have a legitimate play maker at RB in Jhavid Best. The issue is on defense where their averages per game rank no better than 25th. I am expecting all the Lions offensive players to be quality starts in this one. Burleson will return this week and figures to be a threat.
This could be one of the most exciting games to watch this weekend. Two offensive teams against defenses that allow yardage. The slight edge goes to the Rams whom have shown a knack for allowing the yards but not the points. That said, this will be the best match up the Lions have faced all year and they are at home. St. Louis has had only one road trip this year and could find it a bit harder in a hostile environment.
DETROIT 28-ST.LOUIS 24.
FANTASY STARTS: ST.LOUIS: Bradford (280 yds. 2 TD) Clayton (6 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Amendola (9 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Jackson (17 for 90 yds. 1 TD)
DETROIT: Hill (300 yds. 2 TD) Best (10 for 55 yds./3 for 40 yds. 1 TD) C. Johnson ( 6 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Nate Burleson DET....His first week back comes at a time where he will have a good match up and is that extra piece which allows him to get open while defenses are focused on Megatron and Best.
CHICAGO BEARS at CAROLINA PANTHERS: BEARS: Jay Cutler suffered a concussion before the half last week and as of Wednesday, Chicago papers and Lovie Smith expect him to play after practicing.(UPDATE: Cutler has been ruled out and Collins gets the start) Thankfully, he will face a mediocre defense this week in Carolina. The offensive line should hold up better here since the Panthers don't have Osi and Tuck playing for them. Julius Peppers returns to his former team and as if he wasn't already looking great, he will have extra incentive to play his best. Carolina does have decent CB coverage but they are not deep enough to handle Forte out of the back field. I would expect Carolina to drop two LB in coverage and leave Beason focused on the run game. Forte and Olsen will be the factors to the game as Hester and Knox should be handled fairly well in coverage.
PANTHERS: No Steve Smith this week with a high ankle sprain and no Dwayne Jarrett with....well with no team. Clausen gave his best effort last week but is still fighting accuracy issues. He has all the tools but is a rookie with a bright future. He is going to have it even more rough now with no Steve Smith. Expect more Jonathan Stewart running routes and flares in two back sets. Chicago's defense has been swarming to the ball and are 6th in rush defense which will limit Deangelo Williams production. David Clowney is officially their best option and will most likely be thrust into starting only days after being signed. Overall it's recipe for disaster in Carolina when you throw in the Chicago let down last week and their need to bounce back.
Chicago will no doubt be in whole different frame of mind and will be looking to relieve the embarrassment of last week. The Panthers have not faced a defense this fast or disciplined yet , with the closest comparison coming against the Bucs who racked up 4 sacks on them. This one shouldn't even be close.
BEARS 24-PANTHERS 13. (UPDATE: Without Cutler, Collins seemed to have too much rust. Drop all Bears rankings down except for Forte!!!!)
FANTASY STARTS: BEARS: Olsen (6 for 70 yds 1 TD) Forte ( 13 for 55 yds./ 4 for 35 yds. 1 TD)
PANTHERS: J. Stewart ( 7 for 35 yds./ 5 for 40 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Jeff King CAR.....King and Rosario should get plenty of looks given the lack of receivers. Clowney may factor in here but with only a few days to learn the playbook don't expect much.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at CINCINNATI BENGALS:
BUCS: The Bucs strength so far has been their passing game, and they face the Bengals 9th ranked pass defense. Knowing that the Bengals are mediocre against the run, Morris announced Kareem Huggins and Legarrette Blount will split carries with Cadillac who has not been good this year averaging under 3 YPC. The Bucs WR's will face a secondary much like Pittsburgh under 3 YPC. The Bucs WR's will face a secondary much like Pittsburgh in ways and will need to get physical. Best bet here is Mike Williams to put up decent yardage and maybe a score. I expect the Bucs to come out running the ball often as long as they don't fall behind early and use the pass once the Bengals creep up.Winslow is the wild card here since he will need to pose a threat and open up the WR's. They have had two weeks to prepare for this and last year after the bye beat Green Bay though it was in Tampa. Ball control and no turnovers are key for the Bucs to win.
BENGALS: The Bengals are seeing what the lack of a run game will do regardless of who you have at WR. I've never been a fan of Cedric Benson because of his inability to be consistently good and so far he has proven me right. The Bucs have a good secondary ranked 10th against the pass but are weaker against the run. Cedric Benson will be called on to carry the under achieving Bengals and I think it's only a matter of time before Scott gets even carries with him since Scott is averaging 4.9 YPC to Bensons 3.3.
This is a game that should be close if both teams play to their abilities on both sides of the ball. Given the Bengals loss last week in Cleveland, they should come out more disciplined and play better at home. The Bucs have their toughest road game to date here and come up short. BENGALS 20-BUCS 17.
FANTASY STARTS: BUCS: Mike Williams (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Winslow ( 5 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
BENGALS: Benson ( 16 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Ochocinco ( 6 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: K. Huggins TB....we will finally see if the preseason star can carry it over to the regular season after missing 3 games due to injury. He has 4.2 speed and the abilitiy to break the big one. He will receive split time with Cadillac and if hot will wind up getting the biggest percentage of carries.
ATLANTA FALCONS at CLEVELAND BROWNS:
FALCONS: Good at home and bad on the road so far for Atlanta. Jason Snelling and not Turner has been the more efficient back of the two and Matt Ryan still has only Roddy White as a reliable pass option since Gonzales looks to have slowed a bit this year. The good news is Ryan faces the 24th ranked pass defense this week and the Browns are 17th against the run. The Falcons haven't looked amazing, but they are efficient, ranking 10th in passing and 4th in rushing through a concerted effort. In the end, looks don't matter and they are getting it done. Roddy White is a solid play here as is Matt Ryan. You have to start Turner, but if you don't have him but have Snelling he should be a good play as well depending on who your 2nd RB is.
BROWNS: Delhomme is expected to practice this week but the Browns have proven they are a better team with Wallace. The emergence of Peyton Hillis has helped ease the pass game woes and even with teams knowing what to expect, Hillis is running all over them. Coming off a big win against the Bengals, look for Cleveland to carry the momentum over to this game. Then again, I thought Chicago would do well after beating Green Bay. Cleveland has Cribbs giving them good field placement on special teams which has contributed to their success. The lack of any help past Cribbs is this teams weakness and the Falcons are good enough to limit Hillis productivity.
Cleveleand is strong at home, but the Falcons have too many options offensively and are a decent enough defense where Hillis won't run wild on them. The Falcons proved their mettle last week trailing all game until the final two minutes and scrapping out a win. Atlanta wins on the foot of Bryant again, but not as dramatic.
ATLANTA 20-BROWNS 17.
FANTASY STARTS: FALCONS: White (6 for 75 yds. 1 TD) Turner (15 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
BROWNS: Hillis (16 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Cribbs (4 for 50 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: B. Watson CLE...He has been a favorite target on this team and is essentially their number two receiver. The Atlanta LB will need to respect the run and may allow Watson to sneak behind them on a few throws.
NEW YORK GIANTS at HOUSTON TEXANS:
GIANTS: Bradshaw seems good to go this week after both he and Jacobs having their best games of the year. Of course, they had plenty of time to run given how much the Chicago defense was on the field. This week they face the 2nd ranked rush defense but the 32nd pass defense. Good news for Nicks, Manningham and Smith owners. The Giants are not afraid to throw and last weeks run explosion shouldn't be read into too much. The Texans will apply pressure and Manning will have success against this horrible secondary. If you have to start a Giants back, you have to go with Bradshaw and his outside speed. Brian Cushing returns this week for Houston so this run defense will only improve.
TEXANS: The bad news is Schaub faces the 2nd ranked pass defense of the Giants, the good news is the Giants rank 22nd against the run. Andre Johnson is still nursing his ankle and this is as good a week as any for Arian Foster to continue carrying this team in the run game. Not only will he move the ball, but it will alleviate the pass protection since the Giants will be forced to defend him and give Schaub some breathing room and allow routes to develop. Foster should wind up having another top five week and Johnson's rehab should be monitored on how much he practices this week. You can never bench the guy, but at least know his health risks since it will affect how much of a chance you take starting other WR's on your team this week.
The Giants will face a whole different team this week and on their only road trip this year the Colts pounded them. If Johnson is healthier than last week, the Texans will have more than the Giants can handle. Foster alone will be enough to cause problems and you don't want Schaub having space to throw in.
TEXANS 28-GIANTS 20.
FANTASY STARTS: GIANTS: Manning ( 310yds 3 TD) Nicks (6 for 90 yds 1 TD) Manningham ( 5 for 55 yds. 1 TD)
TEXANS: Foster (15 for 90 yds. 1 TD/ 2 for 40yds.) Johnson ( 6 for 80 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: O. Daniels....while the Giants are solid against the pass, they have shown weakness against athletic TE's.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at ARIZONA CARDINALS:
SAINTS: The Saints are winning, but are a shadow of what they were last year after four games. Carolina played them well but they face a Cards team in disarray who ranks 23rd against the pass and 30th against the run. Meachem was on the field for 28 snaps last week and is slowly becoming more involved. Henderson is the definitive number two but both he and Colston have not jumped out to the start we all expected. The loss of Reggie Bush is hurting the Saints more than anyone would have thought, but Lance Moore has essentially filled that role and Chris Ivory looks to be a good replacement. Pierre Thomas did not practice on Wednesday and may not make it come game time so Ivory may have another quality start here. Against the Cardinals all players are must starts. Even Meachem who I think breaks out here.
CARDS: Max Hall has been named the started because he led a drive last week which resulted in a field goal. Pretty sad state of affairs. Fitzgerald will only be dependable as a solid number two WR this year, at least until Hall proves he can do the job or until Fitz gets some weapons spread out with him. Wells and Hightower are week to week starts and it's a crapshoot which one has a better game. Other than Fitz, nobody is worthy of starting.
The Cards keep playing with the line up and keep falling flat. The last team this defense needs to face are the Saints whom are light years ahead of them after facing them in the playoff's just a year ago. Easy win for the Saints. SAINTS 31-CARDS 17.
FANTASY STARTS: SAINTS.....play em if you got em. CARDS: Fitzgerald (5 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Wells (13 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
TENNESSEE TITANS at DALLAS COWBOYS:
TITANS: Their 13th ranked pass defense showed holes against the Broncos pass attack but overall did a good job considering the opponent. The Titans are 30th in Pass offense and 27th in total yards. Past CJ there is nobody producing. Vince Young has looked like the guy pre-benching instead of how he looked the second half of last year. He has been prone to starting out slow, so giving up on him is way too early. K. Britt has shown he is growing into a threat they can use but teams have been able to get away with putting their attention on keeping CJ somewhat normal. Not good news facing the Dallas 8th ranked rush defense.Young need to be able to exploit the coverage mis-matches and has yet to do so.
COWBOYS: Much like the Broncos, the Cowboys have great weapons to attack the Titans 13th pass defense but the key is they have a better run game. Albeit not that much better, but at 26th it's much more effective than Denvers. Dallas' 4th ranked passing offense is going to pose problems for the Titans which will allow Felix Jones and Barber to have open lanes. Jerry Jones stated he wants Felix more involved and what the boss wants the boss gets. Dallas also had two weeks to prep for this game and will come out strong.
Dallas' D matches up well against the Titans one dimensional attack and while CJ will get his yards and a score, Dallas is able to hold them in check. COWBOYS 24-TITANS 17
FANTASY STARTS: DALLAS: Austin (8 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Bryant ( 5 for 60 1 TD) Barber (12 for 55 1 TD) TITANS: CJ (16 for 100 yds. 1 TD) Britt (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Felix Jones....Jones has the better speed and is more of a pass threat should the Titans be able to put clamps on Miles Austin. Either way I see Jones having a productive day in total yardage and could be the one to score instead of Barber.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at OAKLAND RAIDERS:
CHARGERS: Mike Tolbert has stolen some of Mathews thunder, causing Norv to name him a split chance goal line carry and after last week he will probably be eating into Mathews touches. Rivers has been nothing short of amazing, giving the Chargers the 3rd ranked pass offense. Even with the rivalry between them and Oakland and the Raiders 3rd ranked pass defense, I like Rivers to be effective in a game that should have the Chargers offense on the field for most the game. Given McFaddens injury, the Raiders 6th ranked run offense will take a hit and San Diego already would've been a tough match up being ranked 7th against the rush. Tolbert will see enough time to be a good fantasy play as will Mathews and all other offensive players.
RAIDERS: McFadden looks to not be available, Murphy's shoulder limited him to five yards last week and the Offensive line gave Gradkowski zero time to let anything develop. That was against Houston's horrible secondary. Had it not been for Miller it would have been far worse. This week, the opponent is far more stout against the pass and given the injuries it looks like a bad time to face a divisional foe with as much power as the Chargers. No real plays here for Oakland guys on your team.
The Chargers should have a fairly long possession time here since Oakland's defense will not be able to last with all the 3 and outs. CHARGERS 28-OAKLAND 14.
FANTASY STARTS: SD: All of them, including Naanee and Tolbert. OAKLAND: Miller (7 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Bush ( 15 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEEPER: Heyward-Bey...Given Murphy's and McFadden's injuries, the Raiders will be playing from behind and will need another weapon with the focus on Miller.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at SF 49ers:
EAGLES: Kolb looked rusty last week in relief but should look much better after a full week of first team snaps. His start is good news for Celek owners like myself and if he can get a rhythm going he could spread the ball around making Jackson and Maclin solid starts. Mike Bell will likely be the lead back since McCoy has a busted rib and will cause Kolb to have to throw since Bell has seen nothing but limited action. The Eagles will be throwing often in this game making all WR and Celek good options this week on the road.
49ERS: Crabtree called out Smith, Singletary called out his defense, and the team is starting to point fingers at each other as Singletary sits on the hot seat. The Gore show has proven to be not enough, and they face a team who has equally under achieved this year and has had controversies of their own. The Eagles weakness is their pass defense and the 49ers may be able to take advantage of this depending on which Alex Smith comes out.
I will take the team with less chaos who is still in the hunt within their division. EAGLES 24-49ERS 17.
FANTASY STARTS: EAGLES: Celek (5 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Jackson ( 7 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Maclin ( 4 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
49ERS: Gore (15 for 60 yds./ 5 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Davis (6 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Crabtree...He has progressed slowly and with the team looking to get him more involved may have a decent game against this secondary.
Friday, October 1, 2010
FRIDAY GUT CHECK
A list of players whom may have a bad match-up or may be low on your list as far as options on your fantasy team whom for some reason you get the feeling in your gut to start them regardless.
MIKE CRABTREE SF: He has been horrible the first three weeks and it's not really the fault of Alex Smith. He has dropped passes and his run after the catch has been nothing to write home about as well. However, with the firing of Jimmy Raye, I am looking for the Niners to simplify things and get Crabtree and Davis involved much more. They have been losing because it has been the Frank Gore show only and with no other help. Singletary knows he needs to ease the pressure off Gore or he will break down by mid season. Atlanta is allowing opponents 7.9 yards per pass play and almost 250 yds. passing per game.
DARIUS HEYWARD-BEY OAK: Murphy's collar bone and a Houston Defense who is worst against the pass should make this a game where Bey runs wild and is targeted in double digits. Murphy's injury was late news after writing my projections and regardless if he plays, Oakland will have success throwing the ball. With Bey's speed and the odds in his favor, this could be his best professional game to date.
SHONN GREENE NYJ: I had him on here last week, and though he wasn't amazing, he did up his numbers and looked to be running angry as hell in the last quarter against Miami. While LT will get the start, if the Jets get up big they may want to limit his touches, giving Greene a good amount of carries. Also, with the expectation that LT will have plenty of big yardage plays, he may need a bit more rest than usual. If Greene can't put up numbers worthy of a number two back then he will be officially nothing more than a flex play after this.
DEANGELO WILLIAMS AND JONATHAN STEWART CAR: I have been super low on these guys since the pre-season after keeping tabs on their surgeries and watching them look slower than normal. Both guys did make good contributions last week against the Bengals and I think that carries over here against New Orleans. Fox will not trust to put the game in Clausen's hands just yet and the two backs should get about 15-17 touches each against a New Orleans team where the best way to beat them is not to let Brees touch the ball.
DAVID GERRARD JAGS: This one is the riskiest of the group given his horrific start, but the Colts are not great against the pass (Houston, Denver) and while the Jags have been under performing, they do have talent at all positions. Gerrard was essentially put on notice with the signing of Trent Edwards and he knows the next few games could put his career on the line. Gerrard has the talent but seems lazy and slow at times. I expect him to have a fire under his ass this week against a divisional foe who they tend to give a great game. While he is risky, don't shy away from him if you're other QB has a stiff match up but has played better.
MIKE CRABTREE SF: He has been horrible the first three weeks and it's not really the fault of Alex Smith. He has dropped passes and his run after the catch has been nothing to write home about as well. However, with the firing of Jimmy Raye, I am looking for the Niners to simplify things and get Crabtree and Davis involved much more. They have been losing because it has been the Frank Gore show only and with no other help. Singletary knows he needs to ease the pressure off Gore or he will break down by mid season. Atlanta is allowing opponents 7.9 yards per pass play and almost 250 yds. passing per game.
DARIUS HEYWARD-BEY OAK: Murphy's collar bone and a Houston Defense who is worst against the pass should make this a game where Bey runs wild and is targeted in double digits. Murphy's injury was late news after writing my projections and regardless if he plays, Oakland will have success throwing the ball. With Bey's speed and the odds in his favor, this could be his best professional game to date.
SHONN GREENE NYJ: I had him on here last week, and though he wasn't amazing, he did up his numbers and looked to be running angry as hell in the last quarter against Miami. While LT will get the start, if the Jets get up big they may want to limit his touches, giving Greene a good amount of carries. Also, with the expectation that LT will have plenty of big yardage plays, he may need a bit more rest than usual. If Greene can't put up numbers worthy of a number two back then he will be officially nothing more than a flex play after this.
DEANGELO WILLIAMS AND JONATHAN STEWART CAR: I have been super low on these guys since the pre-season after keeping tabs on their surgeries and watching them look slower than normal. Both guys did make good contributions last week against the Bengals and I think that carries over here against New Orleans. Fox will not trust to put the game in Clausen's hands just yet and the two backs should get about 15-17 touches each against a New Orleans team where the best way to beat them is not to let Brees touch the ball.
DAVID GERRARD JAGS: This one is the riskiest of the group given his horrific start, but the Colts are not great against the pass (Houston, Denver) and while the Jags have been under performing, they do have talent at all positions. Gerrard was essentially put on notice with the signing of Trent Edwards and he knows the next few games could put his career on the line. Gerrard has the talent but seems lazy and slow at times. I expect him to have a fire under his ass this week against a divisional foe who they tend to give a great game. While he is risky, don't shy away from him if you're other QB has a stiff match up but has played better.
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