What We Learned Sunday

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: David Gerrard needs to feel uncomfortable with his job. Since the signing of Edwards, Gerrard has looked like the guy Byron Leftwich was run out of town for. Remember when he stole the job from Byron with his stellar play? Ironically, Gerrard has become quite similar to him. Ever since being the unquestioned QB he has played like someone with nothing to lose. Now, with someone breathing down his back (in theory at least) Gerrard has taken it up a notch. Mercedes Lewis is his favorite target....Lewis spoke in preseason how it was the first time he stayed in Jacksonville year round just so he and Gerrard could work together and it is showing. Lewis tied Jacksonville's TE record for TD's in a season this week and there should be more to come. Only play Mike Simms-Walker in fantasy when he makes a stink about not being involved. So far the two times he's complained are the two times he scored and put up good numbers. MJD is getting better, but he is still not what we have been accustomed to. He has always been able to beat teams even when they stack the box, but this year he seems to have lost just a bit. I think he is playing through a minor injury that is going to require surgery in the off-season but the official status is that he has none.

BUFFALO BILLS: They are much better with Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Defense just can't stop anybody and will be this team's killer game after game. Fred Jackson is the back you want here although Spiller will have his games here and there. Lee Evans dropped 84 yds. with a TD and is this team's top threat at WR. Consistency will be the problem though as they play in one of the toughest divisions. The best way to make decisions on when to use Bills players is obvious...only against weak and middle of the road defenses. 

DENVER BRONCOS: Brandon Lloyd is for real and found a system he actually excels in. He seems to have found a second life in pass happy Denver and is a dependable start every week. As for Gaffney and Royal, it is a roll of the dice week to week who will be the number two worthy of starting. Denver has no run game and it will lose them games....you have to be able to run the ball in the NFL and until Denver finds a way to do that, they will continue to fail against good secondaries. When your top rusher only gains 26 yds. you are not going to win. Kyle Orton is a top tier QB....zero run game means passing all day and Orton has done just that, but also looked very effective. 

BALTIMORE RAVENS: They have too many ways to beat you....In a game where no receiver surpassed 58 yds, Ray Rice ran for 133 yds and two scores. With the talent they have at receiver, any one of them can explode on any play. When you need to stay vigilant against them and keep Ray Rice at bay it becomes an issue very few teams will be able to handle this year. Couple that with a top defense, the Offense can afford off days and still win the game. Baltimore will make the playoffs and win the division.

KC CHIEFS: They finally came back down to earth this week although they didn't make it easy for Manning. This team is for real and have the ability to make a run for the division this year. The defense played great, but if you give Peyton enough chances, he will eventually make you pay. Even if it's just putting together drives that result in crucial field goals. The Chiefs beat themselves in my eyes. Bowe and Moeaki both let scores get away from them and critical 3rd down passes were dropped. Cassel actually looked good and put the ball where it was on the receivers to do something with it. They just didn't. Jamaal Charles is the fantasy back you want here out of the two and deserves to get the 16-8 carry split he did in this game every week. While he wasn't able to break away for one this week, he is the more explosive and dynamic ball carrier here. Thomas Jones was running behind a great offensive line in NY and while KC has a good one they are not the Jets. Other than Moeaki at TE, no Chief receiver will be trust worthy this year. Sell Bowe now if you can or wait until his next good outing and get value for him.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS:  Manning had an off day is what you will hear, but it was more the result of a KC team that has a legitimate defense and some coaches that know what they're doing. Addai went down yet again with a shoulder injury and Mike Hart took over for him scoring the only TD of the day. Addai has only had one good game and should be on his way out next year. Both Donald Brown and Hart have more upside, but neither is a good fantasy candidate. Reggie Wayne will still get his solid and steady numbers every week regardless if Peyton is spreading the ball around. Which makes the question "Who is the WR outside of Wayne to have?" Garcon returned and had one more reception than Collie with nine more yards. While this was not Peyton's best day, it's going to be hard to know who he will look for in the red zone. Hopefully next week will answer questions, but the return of Garcon makes things murky. If you can still get some high value for Collie it may be time to sell him before it's too late. The team seems committed to Garcon despite Collie's season so far but we won't know how this plays out for another week or two. Better to sell than be stuck with a guy who is going to be a borderline number three WR.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: Maybe the Bucs are that good or maybe the Bengals are that bad. Regardless, we know for sure that 3-1 isn't all luck and that the defense in Tampa is back. They forced Carson into three turnovers in crucial moments, twice in the final minutes of the game that led to the Bucs winning on the road in Cinci. Mike Williams is this teams clear cut WR stud gaining 99 yds and a score. Aurelious Benn made an impact in this game as well, moving the chains and coming up with some key catches. As the season goes on, these two with Winslow could become a great trio. Morgan Spurlock keeps making key catches in crucial situations and Sammy Stroughter is dependable as they come. There is a young core here that is familiar of New Orleans three years ago. As long as Freeman is healthy, this team will be competitive in every game. The run game on the other hand has much to desire. Despite Raheem Morris' comments that Hugging and Blount would get more carries, he stayed committed to Cadillac whom again averaged only 3 ypr. At some point this team needs to realize that Huggins and Blount need to touch the ball more in order to beat opponents throughout the game and not just in the end. The defense is playing fast and opportunistic despite the lack of splash plays up front. They've had the pressure but are always a step short of a sack.

CINCINNATI BENGALS: While Palmer will get the flack for this game, it was his receivers that deserve a public beating. All the Bengals wide outs dropped key passes that either led to punts or turnovers. Palmer placed the ball in good spots where there was no excuse for the drops.While he did make two bad judgements on balls thrown, the Bengals had chances to score and move the ball but drops killed it. Cedric Benson pounded the Bucs for 144 yds but failed to score. The Bengals are playing nowhere to their potential and every week seems like some aspect of their team refuses to show up. Expected to compete for the division this year, the Bengals need some continuity and discipline. Everything we're seeing out of them points to Marvin Lewis. A change could be in store next year. The Bye week couldn't come at a better time for a team that needs to regroup.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: The offense is as potent as they come and the defense is strong yet this teams continues to beat themselves because of special teams play. Two blocked punts, one returned for a score the other a safety. The three fumbles hurt as well, but it was the special teams play early that set the tone for the Oakland defense and had them buzzing all game. Losing to Oakland has to hurt that much more since they not only lost to a divisional foe but lost the grip on the division on a day where Denver and KC lost. This is the second time special teams play have been a key factor in a loss. Malcom Floyd is the new Vincent Jackson...213 yards? Against the Oakland secondary? Floyd has Rivers trust and is by all means a weekly start who carries top tier value. Mike Tolbert scored the only rushing TD and looks to hold the role of red zone back with a healthy amount of carries as well. At this point, Tolbert carries more value than Mathews. 

OAKLAND RAIDERS: Gradkowski left the game with an injury and Campbell seems to have won his starting job back regardless of how bad the injury is. He played a smart game and made precise passes in between the coverage where only his receivers could catch the ball. While Mike Bush didn't show McFadden speed, he did provide that hard nose running style expected and pounded his way to 104 yds. and a score. The Raiders have the talent defensively, but need consistency on offense if they're going to compete in the division. This could be the game they needed to build confidence, especially for the offensive line who actually looked a bit better this week. Zach Miller and Louis Murphy are still the only two ball catchers worth starting in fantasy, Miller being an every week play and Murphy nothing more than a flex depending on opponent.

CLEVELAND BROWNS: Seneca Wallace went down with an injury and Peyton Hillis had appeared on the injury report late last week which led to a 28 yard day for him. With Wallace expected to be out, Delhomme hurt as it is and Hillis nursing an injury that obviously affects his ability, the Browns are in shambles. Depending on how Hillis responds this week to treatment, no Browns players are starter worthy. Unless clear information comes out this week stating that Hillis is fully healthy, he may be a bench next week. 

ATLANTA FALCONS: Atlanta continues to be the Turner White show and it continues to work. This is one of those teams who may only have limited resources but they know how to use them. Turner rushed for 140 yds. and White had 101 with a score. Matt Ryan continues to be a marginal fantasy QB and Gonzales has fallen off the map completely. Outside of the two mentioned, nobody can really be trusted. They are a team that can be tough when all aspects are firing but are very beatable when either Turner or White are kept in check.

DETROIT LIONS: All those close losses and bad beats led to frustration that was released on the Rams this week. Megatron and Burleson both caught TD passes, the defense was swarming and special teams special. While I expected  a Lions win, nobody expected it to be so lopsided. The Lions continue to be one of the best losing teams and can put together a good run if the defense can come out like it did today. Best and Megatron continue to be the only two weekly starts in fantasy, but Burleson when healthy has proven he is a threat and should be considered a flex play every week depending on the match up.

ST. LOUIS RAMS: It was one of those games where everything went wrong. Especially losing Mike Clayton to a knee injury. Without Clayton, the Rams reverted to their old ways and it became the SJax show. If Clayton is out for any extended time it's going to spell bad news for the Rams. Amendola is a great second option, but he's not meant to be a primary WR. Especially not in fantasy unless it's a PPR league. Jackson continues to show he will get his regardless. Until we know on Clayton, Jackson is the only play here next week.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS: The Skins are quickly getting a reputation for being the most physical team in the NFL. Last week it was Vick and McCoy, this week its was Finley, Lee, and Rogers they banged up. Washington is by no means winning pretty and each game could have easily been a loss as it was a win. The leadership of Mcnabb seems to be paying off however as he continues to be this teams foundation and is showing poise under pressure. Though Santana Moss put up 118 yards, nobody on this team is lighting it up each week and fantasy plays should be made on a weekly match up only basis. The closest you have here to an every day guy is Cooley who will get his touches since Mcnabb loves to use the TE. Moss is a close second, but not a guarantee regardless of how he did this week.

GREEN BAY PACKERS: The loss of Finley made the passing game much more predictable but part of it was Washingtons pass defense. Brandon Jackson had his best game, posting 115yds. but is still far from dependable as a starting RB. The Packers keep coming up short the last few weeks and teams are sitting back on Rogers not allowing the big play. While Jackson did have a great game, the Packers need a dependable back who can carry more of a load so Rogers doesn't have to throw 50 times a game. Finley's injury did look serious so stay tuned on the MRI results. Get ready to pick up Lee if the news is as bad as I think it is.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: Victims of the biggest upset, the Saints have been a much lesser team than they were last year after five games. The receivers just seem to be playing a bit slower and and the plays that were there last year are missing. Meachem hasn't been a huge factor, Henderson has been hit or miss, and Colston has been far below expectations. Also, we're seeing how much of a factor Reggie Bush was in this offensive game plan. The fact that Brees was playing at less than 100%  and no Pierre Thomas also has to be taken into account here. Right now Brees is the only solid, dependable fantasy play every week. Of course in this offense there will be value every week for the receivers, but none of them are as readable as last year.

ARIZONA CARDINALS: Max Hall is getting more credit that he deserves since it was the defense that won this game despite his mistakes. The running game continues to be below average and Fitzgerald continues to be dependable but far less than a fantasy stud. Jay Feely and Fitzgerald are the only two weekly starts and while this was a good win, it can't be expected to happen again. This team will fall back to earth quickly.

CAROLINA PANTHERS: No Steve Smith hurt them as bad as expected and both Williams and Stewart found a hard time getting anywhere against Chicago's defense. This team is bad but young. As long as Steve Smith is out, defenses will be able to stack the box without fear and will limit what the backs can do. Williams and Stewart are officially only starter worthy if you have a bye week or the run defense you are facing is that bad.

CHICAGO BEARS: No Jay Cutler, no problem. The Bears caught a break this week after losing Cutler to a concussion by facing a team that is rebuilding and nowhere close to the Bears talent level. Cutler should return next week and they will have two more good match ups coming at home in Seattle and Washington. Not much has changed here in terms of fantasy value.

NY GIANTS: Don't look now, but the Giants defense is playing up to their potential, feeding off of last week's performance against Chicago. The Giants held Arian Foster to 28 yds. rushing and caused headache for Matt Schaub. Hakeem Nicks has proved he will be a complete stud against lesser secondaries and is the clear cut number one receiver. Steve Smith finally woke up and looks to be a decent number three receiver from here on out. After last week, there seems to be a trend starting where Bradshaw gains the yardage and Bradshaw is called upon for the red zone duties. Jacobs got the only rushing score and this may be something to pay close attention to. Jacobs still isn't fantasy start worthy but what it does to Bradshaws value is more important. It may be time to unload Bradshaw while his value is at what I expect to be it's peak if Jacobs stays healthy.

HOUSTON TEXANS: The whole team struggled and this defense is starting to cause problems now that they are facing defenses that can keep Foster and Schaub in check. The good news here is that Andre Johnson got his and has proven once again what an amazing healer he is and his ability to play through injury. The fantasy plays are as normal here, but Foster owners should pick up Ward while they can as he is clearly showing he would be next in line.

DALLAS COWBOYS: I said early in the season that Phillips may be a candidate to lose his job by mid-season, and if things don't turn around next week vs. Minnesota I expect Jones to pull the trigger and hand the job open to Garrett who has been the favorite for a while now. Felix Jones backed me up and had his best game proving that the best fantasy analysis of this team is to listen to Jerry Jones. I was high on Roy Williams in the preseason only to fall off the wagon after the first two weeks but am officially back on. He has turned it around with Dez Bryant breathing down his neck. The Cowboys continue to not utilize Bryants potential though it's understandable considering the mouths Romo has to feed. Roy Williams has elevated to a legitimate start but be cautious against better secondaries.

TENNESSEE TITANS: Vince Young continues to baffle me on knowing how to read the guy. One week up the next bad. He needs to prove some type of consistency before he can be a trustworthy start every week. Until then he should stay as a back up on your team. Kenny Britt is showing consistency and could become quite a threat along with Nate Washington if Young can find a balance throwing the ball. Even if that does happen, the CJ2K will continue to be the center piece and limit their value since they will have to make the most of their touches every game.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Just when Alex Smith looked like the player he was expected to be as time was winding down, he comes out next series and promptly ruins it. Mike Singletary's job is in jeopardy but he has stated he will stick with Alex Smith despite the short comings. Why they don't give David Carr a shot is beyond me. Alex Smith has clearly proved he will never play past a certain level and the team is hurting for it. Crabtree broke out this week and you can expect more as the pass game focus' more around him and Vernon Davis. San Fran is realizing they are better when they both touch the ball, allowing Gore some rest. The next few weeks will be interesting as to if Singletary loses his job should they lose another two games. Expect to see Carr if Smith struggles against a hot Oakland team.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Kolb looked alot better after last weeks outing but did nothing to make a case for why he should keep the job once Vick returns. McCoy surprised by showing he could play through a fractured rib as if nothing was bothering him,  rushing for 92 yards and a score. For as long as Vick is out you can bump up Celek to every week starter. Past that, Jackson, Maclin, and McCoy are the dependable starts regardless.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS: The Vikings came up short yet again, but there is much to be excited about even in the loss. Moss made an immediate impact catching a TD from Favre, and Harvin was able to excell back in his usual position, especially when lined up next to Moss. Peterson and Schiancoe did not have great nights although that was due to the Jets athletic Line Backers and stout run defense. The biggest concern here is why was Favre holding his throwing elbow on multiple occasions in the fourth quarter? At his age, an arm injury is the last thing you want to see. The Vikings have an interesting game next week against a team very much like them in the Cowboys. Given Dallas' weak pass defense, this could become a shoot out where it's fantasy heaven. Just stay on top of what Favre did to his elbow.

NY JETS: The Jets offense seemed to put it all together, having everyone contribute with all their play makers on the field at once. Shonn Greene rushed for a score behind LT who carried the load yet again. LT continues to defy, having a bounce in his step we haven't seen in two seasons. You have to wonder at this point if the AJ Smith battle wasn't wearing on him or if he just wanted out and figured it was best to not perform. Sanchez has evolved every week and is proving he can be trusted to throw the ball and not be babied. This only makes them that more potent now that Holmes is back. Keller had a quiet night, which is telling now that Holmes has returned and he goes back to number three option in the pass game. He will still get his red zone looks, but his numbers could take a slight hit moving forward though not enough of a hit to ever bench him.