Monday, October 18, 2010

THE MORNING AFTER

First big point of what we saw Sunday was how the helmet to helmet rule has taken center stage this week. A rule that will most likely be revised in terms of punishment, the NFL has seen a host of concussions in the last few weeks. A.Rogers,Massoqoui,D.Jackson,Cooley,and Heap have all fallen victim in a weeks time. As Rodney Harrison and Tony Dungy stated, a harsher penalty such as a suspension is probably the best solution in the short term to making guys think twice before they go in head first. However, this is football and when the guy delivering the hit is just as likely to suffer the same result it makes one question on if suspension is really the solution. Nobody is trying to knock a guy out purposely by leading with the helmet but it happens in the process of a tackle depending on how the two players bodies are maneuvering in the course of a play. To me, it seems more an equipment issue than a player issue. The NFL has been testing dozens of prototypes and it's time they issue a better helmet designed for today's impact needs. Now on to the review...

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: I thought this one had the makings of an upset and it did. Seattle came out with a blitz heavy game plan, sacking Cutler six times. Deion Butler seems to be the receiver you want in Seattle when it comes to red zone scoring from here on out. Mike Williams is the yardage monger but Butler is Hasselbeck's go to guy inside the twenty. Justin Forsett continues to be the back with most upside and the one who is most dependable but it's clear no matter what that Carrol likes using a two back system regardless of who is available. Marshawn Lynch only averaged 2.7 YPC but did score and almost doubled Forsett's touches.

CHICAGO BEARS: Cutler did look a bit rusty, but it was hard not to when Seattle was down his throat constantly and sacked him six times. Their biggest problem was on 3rd down where they went 0-12. That won't win games period and the fact Chicago was even in the race was surprising. They will get things righted this week and hopefully fix the Offensive line issues as the season goes on. Johnny Knox has emerged as the only receiver worth owning on the team and Forte continues to be a threat in all aspects of the game. Chicago seems to have issues when Greg Olsen isn't involved heavily and is something Martz needs to look at going ahead.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: Chris Ivory showed the Bucs run defense for what it was, rushing for 158 yds. making all sorts of passing lanes available for Brees. Brees torched the Bucs secondary for 3 TD's in a game that had the Saints looking as good as they did last year only a week after looking lost and searching for that touch they seemed to have lost. Chris Ivory may be able to hold the job in at least a split carry capacity when Pierre Thomas returns. While this was a great day for them, I wouldn't yet say that Meachem or Colston are back yet. Given that all aspects of the game were firing here, we should wait and see if it can translate a few weeks in row before getting comfortable.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: Just when the Bucs were using Kareem Huggins and seeing how much he opens the offense up....Huggins suffers what appears to be a major knee ligament injury. The Bucs now need an answer at RB more than ever with Cadillac proving valuable in the pass game but averaging only 1.8 YPC on the ground. A trade before the deadline would not be surprising as they lack depth at the position. Josh Freeman still looked comfortable in the pocket but was a victim of bad communication on routes the receivers were supposed to be running. Until they find an answer at RB though, the Bucs will be a passing first team and able to be kept in check. Mike Williams and Freeman continue to be the only fantasy starts you can depend on week to week.

MIAMI DOLPHINS: Henne shut me up for a week at least providing his best performance efficiency wise this game. The Dolphins finally got that balanced run attack they've been lacking all year out of Williams and Brown which led to a wearing down of the defense and allowing things to open up for Henne. I would expect Sporano to take note and force feed his backs from here on out instead of trying to make Henne beat teams. Brandon Marshall put up 127 yards and the use of Fasano showed yet another option the Dolphins should pay more attention too going ahead. While a good win, the Dolphins were facing an injury laden defense lacking mostly it's top play makers.

GREEN BAY PACKERS: Aaron Rogers looked a bit off after missing practice time with the concussion, but it was more a result of no Jermichael Finley and the mediocre performance of Brandon Jackson that had him looking to his only threat left in Greg Jennings. The Packers have now become more one dimensional and need someone to step up as a legitimate threat either on the ground or at receiver. Especially with the defense being down with injury issues, the Packers will need to find ways to score and keep up with teams. For now, Jennings and Rogers are the only two dependable fantasy starts.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: As if things couldn't have gotten worse, the Chargers lost Malcom Floyd to a hamstring injury and Gates to an ankle injury that seems somewhat serious. Rivers was quickly left with only Crayton and Davis as his only reliable threats which made life easier for the Rams to pull out a win. Tolbert was limited in action but did post the score and is about what you can expect going forward. Gates looks to be questionable for next week since he is unable to put pressure on the ankle and we'll wait on word of the seriousness of Floyd's hammy though a speed guy like him will be limited even if it is not that serious. Buster Davis and Patrick Crayton should see huge boosts in value until Naanee returns and then I think Buster Davis is the one to own since he will stretch the field.

ST. LOUIS RAMS: Bradford continues his great inaugural season by managing the game and limiting his errors. Even without Clayton, the Rams may have found a replacement in Denario Alexander who caught 4 balls for 78yds and a score. Steven Jackson continues to be the work horse, rushing for 109 on 29 carries. If the Rams can keep finding big games from their WR then this is a team week in and out that must be taken seriously. Their biggest problem right now is on the road where they need to find ways to win as well. Denario Alexander should be taken seriously and warrants a waiver claim.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: As predicted, Branch quickly became Brady's main target and A. Hernandez' role was greatly improved in a tight fought game. Branch will continue to be Brady's new top target until Tate opens things up and gets comfortable as the down field stretcher. Regardless, look for the Pats to become more of the mid range pass teams that puts together long drives as their new identity. Ben Jarvis-Green-Ellis rushed for the score, but Danny Woodhead may be the back you want going ahead getting the majority of the carries (11) and rushing for 63 yards. Fantasy wise, Branch and Welker will be a toss up game to game as to who is more valuable, but Hernandez and Tate will most likely be the red zone targets. Another game or two should paint a clearer picture as to who plays what roles in this new style offense.

BALTIMORE RAVENS: The Ravens pretty much had the game in their hands but the defense was worn down on long drives in the second half. Everyone who was supposed to make an impact did, but the loss of Heap seemed to throw Flacco off just a small bit not having that solid check down guy. He was solid with the deep ball however and will continue to have success. Had this game been against almost any other team it would have resulted in a win, but facing Brady all they needed to allow was a small window which Brady found. Everything stays the same for the Ravens but keep an eye on the severity of Heap's injury.

DETROIT LIONS: Shaun Hill suffered a broken arm and Drew Stanton took over leading the Lions on an 87 yd TD pass to Megatron who didn't seem hampered by the shoulder issues he had all week. The biggest glaring problem for Detroit was 4 first downs on penalties they allowed the Giants offense. The good news is that Stafford should return next week and the Lions have enough weapons to stay competitive. They need to get over the road loss hump and find a run game before they can become a legitimate team though. They keep trying to find solutions defensively but are incapable of stopping offenses. Count on more production from the receivers and for Best to find more running room next week with Stafford back in the line up.

NY GIANTS: The defense is back in top form, allowing Manning and the run game to flourish. Jacobs and Bradshaw have found their niche and will be a great duo if they stay healthy. Manning is at his most efficient when the run game is thriving and it's not all on him. This is another team where week to week the receiver with the big game will change, but Nicks is by far the one you have to have pencilled in no matter what as the starter. Jacobs is for now a solid flex play, bye week sub but can move up to #2 RB status with another week of what looks to be trending as the norm for him.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: All signs point to Deshaun Jackson missing the next game as his concussion was deemed severe and he was walked off the field by trainers helping him. Depending on the concussion grade, he could be held out even past the bye week. Maclin stepped up with a two TD day and expect Celek's value to rise since he becomes the team's #2 threat. Kolb settled in well and may be causing a QB controvery when Vick returns possibly this week. Reid says Vick is the starter though I find it more of what he's been ordered to say that what he wants. Kolb may actually be the better QB in this situation for as long as Jackson is out. Not having Jackson available will allow teams to bring up an extra guy to spy him and leave only one safety back to protect against Maclin. With Kolb, who is more of a pocket guy that can spread the ball around, all receivers have to be taken into account as legitimate threats because of the throws Kolb can make in this system.

ATLANTA FALCONS: I did like how Matt Ryan spread the love to Jenkins now that he's back to health but his Mike Turners average performances are becoming cause for concern. Atlanta is a scarier team with Turner running at full speed effectiveness. He seems to be lacking that extra gear this year and while Atlanta has gotten away with it, they will need him to be more of a threat going ahead against the better teams such as the Eagles. While he has to be a start, he has yet to prove that #1 RB status expected of him. The NFC South is still an open race so despite the loss, Atlanta has time to fix the lingering issues.

CLEVELAND BROWNS: Both Cribbs and Massaqoui left due to head injuries but Colt McCoy showed promise and composure against a top defense despite an uphill battle. Peyton Hillis was able to be the Steelers focus and was limited to 41yds. Cleveland is stuck in building mode but is playing better than their record or stats indicate. They are just one play maker away from becoming a more justifiable opponent, but until they produce a secure wide out, teams will be able to focus in on their only two weapons in Hillis and Cribbs. Keep an eye on Cribbs and Massoquoi's injuries since this severly dampens Hillis' ability to be productive.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Big Ben came back and Mike Wallace benefited posting 3 catches for 90 yds. and a score. Hines Ward also returned to his normal mid yardage TD day but it should be Mendenhall in the end who benefits most from Ben's return. Having a legitimate passing game allows all kinds of lanes for Mendenhall and things should only get easier for him from here. If this was Ben's first game back, then it was a sure sign of starting him at QB going forward or using him as trade bait since he was most likely the third QB on your team if you have him. With the struggles of so many QB's use it to your advantage in a trade to fill holes on your team.

KC CHIEFS: Todd Hailey finally gave Charles a better split of the carries and it paid off as the Chiefs ran for 193 yards between he and Thomas Jones. Cassel had his best game of the year, throwing for 3 TD's, two going to Dwayne Bowe. All this should be tempered by the fact he was facing the NFL's worst pass defense. The Chiefs had this game won had it not been for a bad pass interference call against them at the end and the defense played overall a good game for the second straight week against a high powered offense. The Chiefs will continue to be a contender in their division but will need to get some of those breaks in their corner after falling victim to them. Bowe should be a sell high candidate this week as a game like this isn't to be expected again. Both Jones and Charles could be the only running tandem that are starter worthy week to week.

HOUSTON TEXANS: The Texans pretty much gave us what we expected out of them with Andre Johnson getting 138 yds. and a score and Arian Foster continuing his fantasy elite year. The bigger story is Derrik Ward's solid performance again that makes him a must have for Foster owners and the locked in number two back in Houston. Owen Daniels has now had a few solid weeks and should be considered a safe TE start moving ahead as Schaub is relying more on him as an option.

NY JETS: Sanchez continues to instill faith in the passing game despite his mistakes and has looked more confident since the return of Holmes to the line up. As long as teams are forced to give attention to the pass game it will allow the run game to flourish. Tomlinson scored twice, and was kept in despite situations where we've seen Greene get the call which was telling. Greene has fallen back into a relief role only and can't be counted on to give more than 50 yds. on average a game. He will get the occasional score, but he is at best a flex play unless Tomlinson is injured. Edwards and Keller continue to be Sanchez' top red zone targets.

DENVER BRONCOS: Eddie Royal pulled a groin which actually makes the Broncos no more readable in the fantasy realm since Demaryus Thomas stepped in with a larger role. The Broncos receivers are much like the Saints corps this year where each has value week to week but none has the number one start locked down. While Gaffney and Lloyd are the two you can trust most, Thomas will only get better and Orton seemed to key on him in the second half with Royal injured. Running wise, the Broncos are still not dependable as they did scrap together 100 yds. rushing but only through a combined effort.

OAKLAND RAIDERS: A week after looking so good, the Raiders deflated themselves providing a lack luster offensive performance. Campbell went 8-21 with two picks and a passer rating of 10.7... The Offense as a whole could not get anything done. There were no real indications of anything here other than fantasy wise this team has hit a wall as far as anyone worthy starting until Gradkowski and McFadden return.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers: Crabtree and Davis are benefiting now that Smith has his back against the wall and is taking chances in order to keep his job. The new looser Smith wasn't necessarily better, but it does open up the fantasy prospects for Crabtree and Davis moving ahead. Gore rushed for 147 yds. and if Smith can expand on this and show signs of life in the pass game, Gore could expect to have more games like this on the ground. Crabtree has grown week to week and looks to be a reliable #3 WR.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS: The presence of Moss alone has had a visible impact on what the Vikings are able to do offensively. Berrian, Harvin, and Peterson have all been more productive since the trade and as Moss settles in things will only get better. While Moss will get the looks Harvin or Schiancoe normally receive inside the 20's, he creates favorable matches for everyone else on the field. Schiancoe seems to be the one initially most hurt from the trade and it may be time to trade him for some value while you can still get it. Harvin played more of an all around role here, but Berrian had his most productive day yet largely because he wasn't the focus. Other than Moss, Harvin is the only every week WR start you can depend on to contribute week in and out.

DALLAS COWBOYS: Romo's 2 picks and the Cowboys special teams were the cause this week as the team continues to find ways to lose. Felix Jones should be penciled in as the lead back from here on out and provides the most fantasy value going forward at RB. Dez Bryant's role continues to grow but Roy Williams should be considered now a weekly start as he and Romo show they indeed have a connection. Miles Austin was largely limited as he was the Vikings main focus, but as teams are forced to reconcile with covering Williams, he will get more of the open space he is used to in the coming weeks. Other than Marion Barber, all your Cowboys are trust worthy starts though Jason Witten seems to have taken a step back in value with Williams' emergence this year. If you have a solid #2 TE and can part with Witten, it may be wise to get some decent value for him while you can.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS: The Redskins are the NFL's version of Rocky Balboa. They get beaten, but deliver blow after blow in return, hanging around long enough to beat you in the closing rounds. While it didn't work out for them this week, they continue to be a well balanced team that doesn't do anything great but play solid football for four quarters. On top of that, pray your fantasy studs don't have Washington on the schedule. Rogers, Finley, Vick, and now Addai have all been injured when playing the Skins in three weeks straight robbing teams of essential players the week after playing them. Anthony Armstrong looks to be a solid #3 WR with alot of upside. A miss thrown pass by Mcnabb in the 4th quarter could have resulted in a long pass setting them up for a tie, but it does show the confidence Mcnabb and Shanny have in him after two good performances. Cooley left with a concussion and will be worth monitoring. Ryan Torain should have all but locked in the starting role and is a legit RB #2 if you have him.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: It's not clear what Addai's injury was after the game, but it looked to be serious as he was escorted into the locker room looking ginger. Given his injury history, pay close attention as it may mean Mike Hart will be the most trust worthy back in the interim. Austin Collie seems to have lost value with Garcon's return to the line up, but still shows value with the TD catch. Trusting either one of them more than a #3 WR until roles even out is a crap shoot since either one could be in line for a big game any week. Collie and Garcon should be sell high candidates if you can get the upper tier price they merit for right now and use it to solidify your weaker areas.

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