WEEK 6 PREVIEW AND GUT CHECK

Amazing what havoc a blocked ear can create from the neck up. So, here is an abbreviated version of Week 6 since this is all last minute.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at ST. LOUIS RAMS: We saw what no Mark Clayton did for the Rams last week against Detroit. Laurent Robinson needs to step up big time this week. Ryan Mathews missed Wednesday practice so it looks like Tolbert will still get his share of the carries. Even in a reduced role Tolbert should be able to score as the Chargers grind it down with the lead in the second half.
SD 31-STL 17.
SLEEPER: Laurent Robinson St. Louis....While he didn't look great last week, someone will need to stretch the field and get Clayton's looks.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at CHICAGO BEARS: This is a game that has upset possibility written all over it. Seahawks have had two weeks to prepare, Cutler hasn't seen live action in two weeks, and Briggs looks like he will be out this week. The Seahawks should be able to focus on Forte until Cutler knocks off the rust.
SEA 24-CHI 21.
SLEEPER: John Carlson SEA...With Branch departing there is only one guy Hasselbeck trusts more when it's time to score.

MIAMI DOLPHINS at GB PACKERS: Fortunately for the Pack, Rogers looks ready to go but will be missing Finley who was primed for a huge year. They are lucky enough to have Donald Lee whom stepped in immediately last week as if he had never lost the job. Miami is another team finding it hard to put it all together where each week at least one aspect of their game vanishes. The burden is ultimately going to fall on Henne's shoulders since he had the highest expectations. Like Seattle, Miami has had an extra week but you can't trust a team who has yet to show a balanced attack in Lambeau.
GB 28-MIA 17.
SLEEPER: B. Hartline MIA....With Woodson getting Marshall, Henne will need to find his secondary receivers with better match up's.

BALTIMORE RAVENS at NE PATRIOTS: Yes the Pats got something for Moss while they could and things were heading south fast, but NE is a different team now until Tate proves he is ready. When you have Brady throwing you the ball, it's not hard to prove it either. However, Tate has yet to face all out attention and gets his first taste against one of the top pass defenses. There will be some errors on the young guys part due to the opponent as he and Brady learn how to adapt during in game situations. Welker will be relied on heavily to carry the load. Baltimore comes in to town hitting their game in stride and looking every bit the contender we assumed they would be. With the NE youth in the secondary, there will be much to be had for the talented WR/TE core of Baltimore. NE has taken a small step back this last week and Baltimore seems to be focused.
BAL 31-NE 27.
SLEEPER: Aaron Hernandez NE....His role should grow with Moss out of town and he will cause problems even for the Baltimore secondary. Look for Brady to chip away at this defense and find Hernandez in the red zone.

NO SAINTS at TB BUCCANEERS: The Saints are coming off a tough road loss in Arizona and the Bucs come off a road win in Cincinnati where Freeman made the two biggest throws of his career and was named NFC Offensive player of the week. The Saints have proven they are not yet close to where they were last year, in large part due to the loss of Bush and Thomas, but they were not putting up the same numbers when they had them. The receivers all seem to have loss just a step and we are seeing how important a role the backfield plays in this scheme. The Bucs have been carried by Mike Williams and the pass game despite Cadillac Williams showing signs he has broken down. The telling part here is that despite his rhetoric, Raheem Morris continues to stick with Caddy because of his blitz pick up awareness. At some point the Bucs need to get some new blood in the run game and it may come here with Mike Williams listed as questionable with a foot injury. The Bucs beat NO last year on their road to the Super Bowl and have the ability to carry that over here since it is a home game. The Bucs secondary is among the most opportunistic and could pose problems if the Saints don't get a drastic improvement from their run game.
TB 24-NO 21.
SLEEPER: Aurellious Benn TB....Benn was much more a part of the pass game last week and if Williams is limited could see an even bigger role this week, sneaking for a score.

DETROIT LIONS at NY GIANTS: The Lions are coming off their best defensive effort but it will be much harder to hold the Giants at bay on the road. All reports are that Megatron is not going to be healthy even if he plays, not being able to use his shoulder normally. Bad news considering the Giants are 1st in Pass Defense. Brandon Jacobs has found his niche in the Giants run game and Bradshaw has found his speed again, running with burst. The Giants already had a favorable match up here, and the limited Megatron only makes it better.
NYG 31-DET 20
SLEEPER: Pettigrew DET....The Lions will need to rely on him with limited options in the pass game. Look for more touches and yardage with a score.

ATLANTA FALCONS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Atlanta continues to win relying on the Turner and White show but face their second road game in a row after beating a punch less Browns team. The Falcons face a much tougher team here especially with the return of Assante Samuel. While Atlanta's run defense is 8th, they are facing an Eagles team that excels in the pass game and will cause match up problems for them. Kolb has looked better each week and should be able to put it together here.
PHI 24-ATL 20
SLEEPER: Harry Douglas ATL...Ryan should have to check down to Douglas often this week since the Eagles are capable of limiting White.

CLEVELAND BROWNS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS: The return of Big Ben couldn't have come at a more opportune time. Cleveland is 18th against the pass and 23rd against the run meaning Ben will have the luxury of being eased back into playing shape mentally. Peyton Hillis says he will be 100% by Sunday, but the bigger issue is how will Colt McCoy ease the pressure when the Steelers stack the box and force him to beat them? Not the best match up for his first start.
PIT 24-CLE 14.
SLEEPER: B. Watson CLE...A young QB's favorite target is his TE.  McCoy should rely on him heavily this game.

KC CHIEFS at HOU TEXANS: It was the KC offense that sputtered last week, but the defense confused Peyton Manning making him look quite average. Good news for a pass defense ranked 25th overall. If they can be close to as effective against Houston, whom have had their own issues with an ailing Johnson then this could be a great game. Both teams are strong against the run but are at the bottom of the pass game. While Houston gets the advantage,  Andre Johnson's lingering health issues drops that advantage down quite a bit. Cassel looked much better last week, but his receivers failed to help him, dropping catch able passes in key situations. The game should come down to who runs the ball more effectively against the opponents strength. Given KC has two options, KC pulls this one out barely.
KC 24-HOU 21
SLEEPER: C. Chambers KC....While Mcluster is by now a known threat the Texans will pay close attention to, Chambers has been silent most the year, limited by Cassel's progression. Chambers has a great match up here and should be largely forgotten given the KC weapons that can do more damage.

OAKLAND RAIDERS at SF 49ERS: Nobody could have expected these two teams to be where they are today, SF at 0-5 and Oakland coming off a win against the Chargers? Campbell gets the start again and faces a SF defense ranked 21st against the pass and 18th against the run. Coming off what has to be the biggest Raider win of the last two years, look for the Raiders to come out with a rejuvenated swagger they have lacked in recent years. This is a game where Campbell could re-solidify his role as starter with a win and where Alex Smith could finally give way to David Carr if he struggles. Given the direction these two teams are headed, Oakland pulls it out.
OAK 24-SF 20
SLEEPER: J. Morgan SF....Morgan has the best match up against Oaklands pass defense and will need to be involved if SF wants to move the chains.

NY JETS at DENVER BRONCOS: The Jets pass defense has fallen to 23rd with the loss and injuries to Revis and now travel to Denver facing the league's 2nd ranked pass offense. Revis seems like a no go this week and even if available, he won't be the Revis we expect. Denver has too many pass weapons to attack this secondary anyway and will throw since they have zero run game. On the flip side, Denver has the 25th rated run defense in yardage allowed which poses an easy match up for LT and Greene. With the emergence of the Jets pass game coming to life, this could become a game of who has the ball last. Given Denver's ability to strike fast against a Revis-less Jets, Denver pulls it out.
DEN 28-JETS 24.
SLEEPER: Correll Buckhalter DEN...Could see a lot of touches flaring out as a receiver, has been the most effective runner when healthy.

DALLAS COWBOYS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS: This is a game that could spell out the rest of the season for each team. Wade Phillips job hangs in the balance regardless of what Jerry Jones says and the Vikings are hoping that the Randy Moss trade continues to pay off as it did after only 3 days with the team. Dallas is 12th in both passing and rushing defense while the Vikes are 6th against the pass and 14th versus the run. This is a must win for both teams but only one of them is making the changes for the better right now and showing they are determined to get better. Everything the Cowboys are going through right now points  to a failure by Wade Phillips and will end up costing his job.
MIN 28-DAL 24
SLEEPER: Schiancoe....Largely limited last week, we saw what Harvin was able to do last week with Moss in the fold and it should be Schiancoe's turn they learn to use him along side Moss.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS: The Skins keep doing it by hanging on till the end despite their short comings. The Colts keep having to find new ways to try and get it done in the face of short comings. Much like the Saints, the Colts do not seem like the same team they were last year, lacking the speed and execution this offense relies so heavily on. Luckily the Skins are 30th against the pass and coming off a rough game against KC should help the Colts fix what's been hurting them.
COLTS 32-WASH 24
SLEEPER: Anthony Armstrong WASH...Shanny pronounced him the #2 WR and promised he would see more looks as the teams field stretcher.

WEEK 6 GUT CHECK PLAYERS

1. ANTHONY ARMSTRONG-WASH: The last two weeks Armstrong has solidified himself as the Jeremy Maclin type role Mcnabb is used to. More of a hybrid since he stretches the field more than Maclin, Armstrong has been given a big vote of confidence and could put up some big numbers against a struggling Colts secondary.

2. MIKE TOLBERT-SD: While most have him bumped down expecting the return from Mathews, I think he still sees his fair share and is a lock for a score against a ST. Louis team reeling from the loss of Clayton.

3. JHAVID BEST-DET: The Lions will be without a healthy Calvin Johnson leaving them to rely heavily on Best who is the most explosive weapon without Johnson there. Expect him to see enough touches to make him relevant despite playing against the Giants.

4. Darren McFadden-OAK: He should return this week and while Bush gets the starters role, it will be Mcfadden's speed that hurts the 49ers most. The 49ers have had more trouble with speed backs than down hill type runners. McFadden's hammy health is of primary concern but all indications say he is ready.