Sunday, November 7, 2010

SUNDAY IN REVIEW

BUCCANEERS: One yard....The Bucs were one yard away from winning this game on the road, but Legarrette Blount missed the hole and chose a lane which led him into a chop tackle just short on 4th and 1. This team is still in the thick of things for the NFC South and showed poise on the road against the divisional leaders. Raheem Morris continues to allow Cadillac Williams the starters carries for the first two drives of every game and those are very significant tone setting carries which are being lost to Cadillac's ineffectiveness. Blount should be the lead back with Caddy as the 3rd down guy from here on out. The rush defense was better this week, but still allowed Turner 100 yards. Mike Williams is the guy you want most on this team, scoring once again and breaking a 52 yard TD on a ten yard pass. Blount has more favorable match ups coming and was simply a victim of a good rush defense. Aurellious Benn has emerged as the Bucs true #2 WR and is worth picking up off waivers in a keeper league while you can.

FALCONS: The Falcons defense held when it needed it most and escaped by a yard to cement themselves atop the NFC South. Roddy White went down with a knee injury in the first half but returned. This could be worth watching as he was largely ineffective and Ryan looked more to Gonzales and Jenkins. Matt Ryan seems to have found great comfort ability in the pocket but will be hindered if he loses White. His value is clearly tied to White's health and he should finish the second half of the year as a top ten QB if White is healthy.

DOLPHINS: Chad Henne continues the Jeykle and Hyde act as he tossed three picks and no TD's. Given it was against one of the NFL top defenses, but he is not a guy to trust as your starter. Brown had another good game, scoring with 59 yards rushing. He is trustworthy as a #2 RB but I would rather see him in a flex spot if you have better options. Brandon Marshall is a must start since you probably drafted him high but really is only safe as a WR 3 with amazing upside depending on Henne's day. The Dolphins are better plays at home stat wise but use caution on any other guys except Brown and Marshall.

RAVENS: The Ravens came out firing after the bye week. Ray Rice found his usual form rushing for 83 yards and receiving for 97 yards though he did not score. Derik Mason and Willis Mcgahee caught the only two TD passes. Boldin was kept in obscurity catching only 2 balls for 28 yards. The Ravens are one of the few teams that have lived up to the hype and have yet to really let down. Boldin and Rice are the studs, but I think Flacco and Mason are being very undervalued. Both guys are putting up solid numbers for their position and you should be able to get them for lower value than you would expect. If you have Mcgahee, trade him to upgrade or get depth at another position you need while his value is high this week. He is too sporadic to trust overall.

BEARS: While the Bears had a bye week to prepare for this game, they came out a bit flat, most likely due to the time off. It really doesn't matter since they get the win though. Cutler was only at about 55% but more importantly he didn't throw an interception. He seemed to manage his throws well and pick his spots. Forte had another ho-hum game on the ground getting 49 on 14 carries and not being a factor in the pass game. After a fast start, Forte has slowed a bit giving fantasy owners an average of 8 PPG. He still has great potential but faces the Vikings twice, the Jets, Philadelphia, and Miami on the road. Receiving wise, Earl Bennett had the catch this week but Knox is the only true threat overall. None of them are better than WR #3. Forte though should be considered a RB #2 due to schedule the rest of the way. He does have a good match vs Detroit but it gets tougher overall.

BILLS: Steve Johnson overcame a slow start to finish with 11 catches and 145 yards. He clearly is Fitzpatrick's favorite target and has been one of the safest WR plays this year. Fitzpatrick has also been a good start lately given his need to throw so much coming from behind every game. The Bills run game has come up short from being the lead attack expected, but were facing a tough run defense. They do have some favorable matches against Cleveland, Miami, and New England whom currently do not have the greatest rush defenses. However, all three teams seem to be improving vs the run and come week 14 could be tough opponents. Better to find options if you are in contention.

SAINTS: What looked to be a close one during the first quarter turned into an easy scrimmage game as the Saint defense knocked out both Matt Moore and Jonathan Stewart then make Clausen look just bad. The Saints got a win they needed as the NFC South is very up for grabs and should be until the final weeks. Lance Moore and Marques Colston are the only two to trust at WR as Meachem and Henderson continue to have bad statistical seasons. Both are drop worthy or trade bait if you can find any takers. While Betts got the start and the carries, it was Julius Jones who doubled his rushing total on half the carries with 68 yds. on 6 carries. The good news is that Bush should be back after the bye week and maybe Pierre Thomas will be close to returning. Thomas was almost traded to the Patriots this year and looks to have worn out his welcome with Sean Payton. Ivory and Bush are the best two options moving forward.

PANTHERS: I had the Panthers down as my upset of the week, but after two drives those thoughts were shattered by Matt Moore going down and then adding Jonathan Stewart to the injury list. After that it was an after thought. The question became how bad would the Panthers lose. No receiver came away with more than 22 yards and no RB with more than 41 yards. As Steve Smith said...it was pathetic. While Clausen looks in line to get the next start, Tony Pike came in an put up the same yardage on fewer throws and looked better overall. Steve Smith is officially no better than a flex play until he can develop continuity with a QB. Coach Fox needs to make a statement and roll with one guy for the rest of the year for the team's sake and start developing for next year. No Panther is trustworthy and Deangelo Williams will be hampered when he returns by a passing attack which scares nobody.

PATRIOTS: While I pegged Hernandez for a score as my sleeper, it was about all I had right in this game. Brady couldn't find a rhythm, the law firm went bankrupt, and Danny Woodhead led all players with 92 total yards. The Patriots were caught by a Browns defense which has gone under rated most the year. Coming off the bye allowed them extra time to scheme against the Pats short shot game and catch them off guard with some sneaky play calls. The Patriots simply had an off day but will look to get back on track next week. Hernandez is a solid TE #1 and Woodhead has clearly overtook Welker as that all purpose guy who racks up the yards. Brady however has fallen in value after losing Moss and is not the dependable monster you are used to expecting. If you can get name value for Welker do it. Green Ellis may have fallen short this week but has some good games coming up and is worth being patient with. Try and get him if you are weak at RB #2 or need a good flex play.

BROWNS: The Browns overwhelmed the Pats in a game that may have saved Mangini his job yet again. He wins the ones the shouldn't and loses everything else giving the perception he has potential. It was the same with the Jets until Woody realized this trend. The Browns have the talent and seem to be getting better, but will have to wait until next year before becoming serious contenders. McCoy is clearly the choice at QB so he can develop into the potential he is showing. Peyton Hillis is a monster, running for 184 and 2 scores as well as catching 3 for 36 yards. Massaquoi showed some relevance again and may have value moving forward as a reserve should one of your studs go down.

JETS: Mark Sanchez started off a bit rusty but gained composure and took control of the pocket as time went on, eventually driving the Jet s to the Detroit 20 with two minutes left for the game winning field goal. The bigger concern here is what is going on with the Jets run game? This was a game primed for the Jets backs to have success yet neither reached more than 55 yards on the ground. This is the second game where the run game has come short of expectations and while you are not going to move LT anywhere, it may cause you to lower expectations just a bit. I have been a firm believer that as the season wares on, LT will slow a bit and we will see Greene a bit more. Greene was featured more towards the end of this game and this could be a sign of things to come. Santonio and Braylon each continue to give fantasy numbers worthy of #2 and 3 guys and should be trusted moving ahead. Given the schedule coming up, Sanchez may also be a good play for the next three weeks if your starter has a bye or some really bad match ups.

LIONS: At this point either Stafford has a bum shoulder and needs to sit out the rest of the year or the Detroit medical staff is the worst. Either way, Stafford will only be able to afford so much scar tissue before it limits his career. Bench him since the season is mostly shot at this point and let him fully heal and prepare for the long term. He has amazing potential but it's worth nothing if he misses 5 games a year. I called Jhavid Best as a sleeper and he delivered with 88 yards. The Lions as a whole are playing good football, but the defense can't close in the 4th. There is much to be hopeful about but fantasy wise Calvin Johnson and Jhavid should be the only two guys you put in as starters. Megatron is the obvious start week in and out but he will fall to WR #2 as long as Stafford misses time. As long as Best is healthy he will continue to rack up yardage and you can depend on about 70 YPG. While it may not be spectacular, it should be consistent production and more than you can rely on compared to higher picks like Ryan Mathews, Shonn Greene, or Deangelo Williams.

CHARGERS: Phillip Rivers is undoubtedly the best QB in football right now. While it was the worse secondary in the NFL, Rives threw 4 TD's without any of his star receivers, a stagnant run game, and came back from a 23-14 deficit to win. It will only get better for Rivers after the bye week when Vincent Jackson returns, Malcom Floyd should return as well as Naanee and Gates. Rivers also faces a favorable schedule after the bye making him all the more valuable. Ryan Mathews injured his ankle once again which only strengthens the case for Mike Tolbert being on your team. He has the most TD's out of the RB core and is a more durable back. Sit on your Chargers during the bye as it should only get better.

TEXANS: Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson were shut down by the top rated pass defense, making it the Arian Foster show. Foster ran for 127 yards and led all receivers with 70 yards. Foster is by far the best back in the NFL but the work load is worrisome. Every touch means another hit and in today's NFL that can be a slippery slope to tread. It's not like you would dream of trading the guy away, but if you own Foster you are most likely in playoff contention and should have some reserves just in case. He runs smart and does know how to avoid the big hits, but it should be a valid strategy to have depth. Owen Daniels missed the game and if you own him it is time to seek other options.

CARDINALS: The Cards had this game until the last five minutes but it never really felt like they were winning. It was more a case of the Vikings offense beating itself, and it proved to be true as Favre led two scoring drives in five minutes to tie and eventually win. Fitztgerald did get his on 107 yards receiving but failed to reach the end zone. I liked Hightower more than Wells though neither was appealing and Hightower finished with a team leading 39 rush yards. Though Wells is the starter, Hightower brings a better ball control game and is more physical right now. Regardless, you won't feel comfortable using either of these two and need better options. Fitzgerald is a high end #2 as I've been saying and should be expected to give you around 10 PPG. That said, if the QB carousel can stop, Fitzgerald only faces one solid pass defense for the rest of the year including the playoffs.

VIKINGS: Now the work is Ziggy Wilf is still considering if he should release Childress. It's the only true option and needs to be done now while the team is still in contention. The fans and players hate the guy and think he is clueless. He questioned Percy Harvin's work ethic on Friday and Sunday he posted 126 receiving yards. Berrian was my sleeper and he came away with 89 yards. I had said not to panic on Harvin just yet and it will only get better. Sidney Rice warmed up before this game and could return next week. That will help this team and help Harvin find the end zone. Schiancoe's value will still be high regardless of Rice's return since it looks like Childress has figured out that him being involved means a more effective team. Pick up Rice from waivers now if he is available. The Vikes only have two tough pass defenses through the fantasy playoffs left.

GIANTS: Bradshaw and Jacobs flip flopped their roles this week, with Jacobs getting the yardage and Bradshaw getting the scores. The Giants came out rested and overwhelmed Whitehurst. Eli went to his favorite target Nicks often who finished with 126 yards and a score. Manningham and Smith had decent days, with Smith getting the TD but neither is a safe play every week because you really don't know which one will come out with the score. Jacobs is a trustworthy start depending on the match up and Bradshaw is a must start weekly. Eli and his receivers have a good schedule until the fantasy playoffs where he faces Min, Phi, and GB. All three will be challenges so if you have a solid back up or can trade for a QB/need player I would go for it. Sounds crazy, but if you are looking at getting in the playoffs with Eli as your guy it could be tough to expect production three weeks straight from him.

SEAHAWKS: So much for the Whitehurst hoopla. The Seahawks were not the healthiest group, but right now Hasselbeck gives them the best chance of winning as everyone saw on Sunday. The only player of note that produced anything significant was Marshawn Lynch who posted 48 yards. Lynch is the back you want on this team but is nothing more than a reserve. The Mike Williams bandwagon should also be unloaded and he should be traded while he carries some weight.

CHIEFS: Jamaal Charles delivered again on fewer touches than Jones and was also an impact in the pass game catching 5 balls for 47 yards and rushing for 53 yards to Jones' 32. Once again, Charles is the one you want on this team though both are starter worthy. Dwayne Bowe has continued his new found trust with Cassel, receiving for 63 yards and a score. Bowe has become a solid #2 WR and should be trustworthy as such for the rest of the year. The Chiefs have the best rushing schedule in the NFL and don't face a truly tough rush defense until the last week of the fantasy playoffs against Tennessee. Despite the loss, the Chiefs are still in the divisional race and will be playing hard. Moeaki should be in your line up every day despite the fact you probably have a better name on your squad. He is the Chief's second option in the pass game and should not be benched.

RAIDERS: After a bad first half which looked like KC would be in control, the Raiders regrouped and Jacoby Ford ate his Wheaties. Ford finished with 148 yards and was the only other player than Mcfadden to make a significant impact. He is worthy of a waiver pick up since he may have just earned himself starter time given Heyward-Bey's magic act week to week and Murphy's health. Oakland has a bye week coming and should have all it's receiving threats back so wait and see what Ford will do and how he will be used. Mcfadden and Miller are the two you can obviously trust but take a wait and see approach before you start anyone else despite this week's production. Besides, you'll probably forget Ford's performance after next week anyway.

COLTS: I tweeted it on the 4th and had him here as a sleeper. Javarris James didn't give you crazy yards but he did give you two scores if you had the balls to start him. Just when you think it's safe to play Garcon, he shows up for 15 yards on two catches. Both Tamme and Wayne had 11 receptions but Tamme had the score on a night where Peyton was hurried often and faced solid coverage. Tamme is another one I called the night of Clark's injury and has lived up to the label of being a Clark clone. As of now, Reggie Wayne is the safest play at the WR position. Garcon and Collie are interchangeable from week to week and the addition of Blair White only complicates things. Garcon has the most upside overall, but is only trust worthy as WR#3 or a flex.

EAGLES: Mike Vick returned right where he left off, rushing for 74 yards with 1 TD and passing for 218 with a score. Desean Jackson is his favorite target and returns to WR 1 status as long as he is healthy. McCoy had his best rushing day since week two, gaining 95 yards on 16 carries. Maclin had a quiet game, but Vick will find him like he did before the injury. The only true change from what you expected on this team is the total lack of production from Brent Celek. Celek had a hard enough time hooking up with Kolb who looked for him more often. Now with Vick, Celek is bench material. Given he was probably drafted as your TE #1, look for options on the wire.

COWBOYS: I've said previously that regardless of what Jerry Jones says, Wade Phillips will get the boot before seasons end. It looks like after the blow out in GB that Jones has softened his stance on not making moves as he stated he will be making changes. It starts with Phillips and has translated to the mentality of this team. The Cowboys have the talent, but they don't have the discipline needed. They need a coach who knows how best to use each individual's talent in given situations. Best to make the change now and use the rest of the year slowly implementing a new system under a new coach. Jason Garrett has always been the guy in waiting and the time is now. Still, Dez Bryant carries the most value on this team and is the only one you can trust to start every week. He faces weaker corner opposition than Austin, runs the routes in space, and has the speed to burn a defense. Austin continues to take a big hit without Kitna, but like Fitzgerald is a high end #2 with #1 potential. If you can hold Austin until the second week of the playoffs, he faces Washington and Arizona. Until then he faces some tougher opponents but will still produce, just not what you expected on draft day.

PACKERS: James Jones came up big again in relief of Donald Driver catching a TD on 123 yards. Jennings added 80 yards with a score and Brandon Jackson had one of his most productive days rushing for 42 and a score along with 26 receiving and a score. The Packers defense has gotten healthier and may be the fastest defense in the league. This is a defense that can win you games. Jones has evolved to a solid WR 3 but will have to be monitored since Driver has the extra week to heal with the bye. Brandon Jackson is a decent RB 2 start, but since you probably have better options could make great trade bait if you have holes on your team.


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