Sunday, November 14, 2010

SUNDAY IN REVIEW

BUFFALO BILLS: The monkey is off their backs and the Bills can celebrate for at least one night. CJ Spiller suffered a hamstring injury and didn't return in the second half so Fred Jackson owners can finally get the value they expected out of him on draft day. Two TD's and 170 yards probably helped you win this week. Fitzpatrick had an off day but is still a good start depending on the match up as is Steve Johnson. With Parrish being out, Lee Evans is also a good #3 guy if you lack options.

DETROIT LIONS: Shaun Hill had a good day statistically but the most worrisome part is how Jhavid Best and Kevin Smith both failed to put up good days against one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. Best has amazing potential but is nothing more than a safety valve if you have better options. Do not trust this guy as a start. Megatron retained his value this week and looks like he can be depended on as a WR #1 regardless who is at QB. He and Pettigrew are the only two start worthy guys regardless of the match up. The Lions have DAL, NE, CHI, and GB the next four weeks so if you are really weak at RB or QB it may be wise to sell high on Pettigrew or get a combo package for CJ. The Playoff's are GB, at Tampa who's pass defense is very good and Miami who is also solid vs the pass. If you're looking at playoff's and need to fill holes, CJ in a trade should do it.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Favre had a Favre day and tossed three picks to seal the Vikings fate in the division. Percy Harvin aggravated his ankle once again and is a sell high prospect since he should be a top eight WR in fantasy after this game. Take away the 53 yard reception and you're looking at 3 catches for about 12 yards. Not good, especially since it looks like the Vikings "have a foot in the parking lot", waiting for the off-season. The Vikings are missing Moss, and it was way too much Peterson which tells me they are not confident in anyone other than Harvin. The Vikings have NYG, CHI, and PHI in the playoffs so look for a multi player deal for Harvin to another team on the bubble who is WR deep. Give him up for a Solid #2 WR and another positional guy you can use.

CHICAGO BEARS: Cutler had one of his better days, completing passes to 9 different receivers but still threw 2 picks to his 3 Touchdown passes. As I've been preaching, the Bears need to involve Gregg Olsen. When they do they win, when they don't they lose. Forte finally had a decent day on the ground gaining 69 yards but he has a so-so schedule going ahead. His ability and use in the pass game makes him a keeper but he is less than an absolute lock every game to give you good scores. Cutler will make or break you so if you can unload him for someone more consistent do so. He has 12 TD's to 9 INT's so that tells you what you can expect with his 86 QB rating.

NY JETS: Ryan stayed true to his word on making sure Greene and Tomlinson had a better share of the work load and both guys had very productive days. Greene will hold good value and is a great safety valve as a guy who is not really start worthy but could become a solid play come playoff time. Sanchez gave you numbers this week but it took a full OT to give you what many other QB's can do in 4 quarters. However, his schedule has two good match ups the coming weeks but gets tough with MIA at home then at PIT and CHI in the playoffs. He will give you mediocre numbers but hopefully you have better balance at all other positions if you are depending on him as a starter.

CLEVELAND BROWNS: Peyton Hillis is a monster...82 yards rushing with a score and 27 through the air. He is quite possibly the best and most consistent fantasy back this year and has proved he can produce regardless of the opponent. He has a great schedule the rest of the way and is a sure fire stud the rest of the year. Colt McCoy may be a guy you want to snag in keeper leagues. He isn't putting up gaudy numbers but is showing great decision making skills, not causing turn overs and if they sign a solid starting WR he will only become more effective. No WR currently on the roster is a good start but if you have to have one in your line up, Cribbs is the guy. The Browns defense is one which can serve as a solid reserve squad come the playoffs so get them if you need depth or if your current defense has a tough road ahead of them. TE Ben Watson is another guy flying under the radar and a solid play every week. He is seeing as many targets as any WR on the team.

CINCINNATI BENGALS: The time for Carson Palmer has come. He has struggled with accuracy issues all year and the only thing keeping him fantasy relevant is the sheer amount of throws he is having to make playing from behind. Ochocinco took a hard fall on his shoulder but did return so he should be fine after sitting out a few practices and getting treatment. Don't freak if you see him on the injury list unless it turns out to more serious than he let on. Cedric Benson continues to be underwhelming going for just 24 yards on 14 carries. Part of it is the fact the Bengals are being forced to abandon the run game, but Benson has lacked the second gear we saw last season. Other than Buffalo next week, Benson does not have an easy go at it through the playoffs so if you can get a solid second tier back or fill another position you need go for it. However you may want to wait until after next week vs the Bills when his value will be higher.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Javarris James was my sleeper and delivered, rushing for a TD on limited action. He now is tied with Addai for the lead in TD runs, but once Addai is healthy will most likely go back to reserve status. Sell high on him now while you can to a team struggling at RB. He was a waiver guy, so fill your voids with him now. Tamme has proven to be valuable and a great replacement to Clark. If you followed me on Twitter you were the first ones to know about Tamme as I posted him up as an immediate pick up as soon as Clark went down. The problem for the Colts overall is that Peyton seems almost overly dependent upon him. Tamme caught 7 balls but was targeted at least 11 times. The Bengals do have a good secondary, but Manning seems to be checking off quicker than normal and not allowing things to develop down field. Both Garcon and Wayne had below average days because of it. Both guys are still starter worthy, but Garcon is on the most shaky ground as he dropped a TD pass and if Collie returns come playoff time it will hurt his value even more. Do not buy into this back field until Addai returns and even then he will not be more than a reserve back you can trust.

HOUSTON TEXANS: Houston has lost 3 in a row and teeter on a team losing it's faith. Andre Johnson posted the numbers you would have expected, with 146 and a score. Arian Foster had a normal day, rushing for 56 and a score. While Kevin Walter gave 90 yards and a score, do not buy into it. Trade him now at his peak and reap the benefits. The Texans face some of the best secondaries around and don't have an easy playoff game until week sixteen vs Denver. Walter is one of those guys who can get you great value that pays off long term. The Texans as a whole are facing a losing streak that could very well continue and derail their good start to the season.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: MJD made the most of his bye week, returning for 100 yds. 2 TD's and 24 through the air. MJD has a great schedule going forward, with a majority of the teams having weak run defenses. Simms-Walker returned to his unreliable ways and is a guy that can hurt you if you are depending on him. He's a good flex or WR #3 but comes with high risk. The Jags got away with one here, getting the lucky bounce but Gerrard faces some good pass defenses in the next few weeks. MJD will continue to be the work horse and limit Gerrard and Simms-Walker's value.

TENNESSEE TITANS: If we have learned anything about Randy Moss this year it is that he bumps the value of the second WR for each team he is on. Nate Washington only had 26 yds. receiving but was the only one to catch a score. I still believe Young will look for him every chance he gets and this was probably more a factor of not knowing the play book 100%. CJ had 117 and a score and will continue to thrive as long as Moss is around forcing help deep for corner backs. Vince Young is a solid back up for your team that comes with a higher potential than most other QB's who are secondary options.

MIAMI DOLPHINS: Looks like the future may be in Tyler Thigpen's hands after Pennington and Henne went down. Early work is Pennington may be gone for the year and given Henne wasn't trusted to start the game, Thigpen should get the start next week. Brandon Marshall may as well call himself Steve Smith (CAR) given the lack of production due to a QB carousel and the lack of any real talent at the position. Teams are taking him out of the equation and forcing the Dolphins to beat them with Bess or Hartline. Both are great reserve guys/ borderline #3 or flex plays if we could get a good read on who the QB will be. Ricky Williams had the best game on the ground with 64 yards but both he and Brown are not close to what they were last year and should not be starting on your team. If you have to start one it's Brown who has the most upside so far and has given you the most production fantasy wise overall. Anthony Fasano had 107 yds with a score and should be a solid play if Thigpen gets the stat next week.

CAROLINA PANTHERS: Clausen continues to remind us all he is a rookie and struggled to make the plays on 3rd down to move the chains. Mike Goodson did rush for 100 yards, but don't read too much into it. The Bucs are very weak vs the run and faces Baltimore next week if Williams still isn't healthy. Steve Smith will have games where he gives you a decent points, but is only dependable as WR #3.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: Aurellious Benn is a good waiver pick up if you need depth, scoring for the second time in as many games and should have had one more had he not come up inches short vs Arizona. Mike Williams should be in your line up every week and could come cheap via trade since he doesn't carry the name value of other higher profile guys. Legarrette Blount seems to be the real deal and is a solid RB #2 start you can depend on. Hold on to these guys though the tougher match ups coming the next few weeks because come playoff time the Bucs face WASH, DET, and SEA.

KC CHIEFS: They were down early after three quick scores by Denver but more telling is how they fought back and finished the game losing by only 10. This team is for real but simply had one of those days. Denver shut down the run early and schemed well, allowing Charles only 41 yards which would be the best output of any runner. Charles continues to prove he is the back you want here as he caught 5 passes for 80 yards and a score. He is a sure #1 RB and has one of the best schedules vs the run. Matt Cassel has become a guy that may make you question putting him in over your starter depending on the match up. He has helped Dwayne Bowe be fantasy relevant again and add a dimension that will help this team contend for the playoffs. Bowe and Charles are must starts every week, with Thomas a solid #2 RB play if you have him. KC has ARI, SEA, and DEN the next three weeks so all the mentioned guys are good plays to help you get into the playoffs. Don't think Denver will have another one like this in Arrowhead.

DENVER BRONCOS: They flipped the script, doing to KC what Oakland did to them. Orton looked back to his old self, throwing 4 TD passes, two of them to sleeper of the decade Brandon Lloyd. Demarius Thomas looked to have tweaked his tail bone on a catch so will be one to watch this week. The bigger news is that Knowshaun Moreno is back and looks to finally be 100%. He rushed for 106 caught for 50 yards and a score. Moreno is a solid play from here on out and has some good match ups ahead. He is a solid RB #2 guy the rest of the year.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: Mike Williams looks recovered from whatever injuries were bothering him and Matt Hasselbeck threw for 333 yards. Neither back is one you can rely on. Marshawn Lynch is the starter, as he continues to get the majority of the carries. Justin Forsett gets fewer touches, but often out produces. While this was a good win, lets remember it was against Arizona. Mike Williams is a solid start, but nobody else on the team warrants a start.

ARIZONA CARDINALS: At this point it's the Fitzgerald and Breaston show and they are the only ones you should rely on. Wells is too injury prone and Hightower too inconsistent. Don't buy the Early Doucet game. The Cards had to throw to come from behind and we know who the top targets are.

DALLAS COWBOYS: I had the feeling Garrett would switch things up a bit and he did. Far from just a new start, the Cowboys looked different in every facet of the game, playing with great speed I haven't seen from them since week 1. Felix Jones was one of my Gut check guys and produced because Garrett realizes how to use his talents and put them to use. This is how Jones should have been used all year long. Felix Jones value obviously goes up, but the rest of the guys should stay where you currently have them. Jones will be relied on to open up things and I see Garrett using him more in a Reggie Bush type of role from here on.

NY GIANTS: There really is no change with the Giants values since they were simply just overwhelmed from the start. Mario Manningham's value did jump with the loss of Steve Smith so grab him if you can. He will be a solid play, and may lead this team in targets and receptions from here on. If you want depth, Ramses Barden looks like he will be a third option at WR but the Giants looked as if they wanted to use the TE more instead of Barden. Kevin Boss stands to see a big boost in value and should be on most people's waiver wire. Pick him up if he is.

ST.LOUIS RAMS: Another game, another score from Amendola, who has boosted himself to solid #3 WR status. SJax is his normal fantasy beast self and has proven he will provide you double digits every week no matter what. The bigger thing here is that it should be time to drop Laurent Robinson if you have him as a reserve and pick up Brandon Gibson. Neither is lighting it up but if you need depth Gibson has more up side.

SF 49ERS: Troy Smith has transformed this team and has them back to believing in their potential. I called another SF win and am high on Troy Smith's value going ahead. He's not afraid to throw the ball unlike Alex Smith and his feet make him more of an asset. Crabtree seems to be trust worthy for about 50-60 yards a game with good upside to score since Troy Smith seems to have a connection with him. Really, nothing has changed in the pecking order of this team, they just have become better at executing which means more points for you.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Just when I talk about how reliable Woodhead will be, Welker comes back and makes me question it. All year it has been Woodhead doing the things Wes was doing and now it looks like Welker may be getting healthier. Regardless, you have to roll with Woodhead because of his two position availability and because of his touches. Hernandez is still the guy you want at TE, but this game just reminds you that Brady likes to spread out the love and the Pats are a team that will do what is necessary to win and roll with the hot hand.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: They were hurt by Ben's mistakes and showed the best way to beat them is with the short passing game. Mendenhall came short of what we all expected him to produce though the Pats run game is average and not as bad as believed. Ben has spread the love since his return and Mike Wallace value sky rocketed. Heath Miller could be a good trade bait candidate since he will be a part of this offense but looks to have fallen to option #4 in the pass game since Randle-El has emerged.







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