Matt Ryan is now 7-1 at home in his last 8 but has struggled against this type of scheme and may be with a less than 100% White who has been his go to guy. Ray Rice has found his legs also and is producing both on the ground and in passing. The Ravens simply have too many weapons for Atlanta's secondary to handle. BALT 24- ATL 20.
FANTASY STARTS: RAVENS: Flacco (280 yds. 2 TD) Rice (12 for 60 yds./ 5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Boldin (5 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Mason (4 for 65 yds.) Heap (4 for 50 yds. 1 TD)
FALCONS: White ( 4 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Jenkins (6 for 80 yds.) Gonzales (5 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Turner ( 14 for 55 yds/ 3 for 35 yds.)
SLEEPER: McGahee Balt....He has been increasingly productive the last few games after being an after thought for the first part of the season. He could find an increased work load given the Atlanta front 7 and allowing Rice a breather.
DETROIT LIONS @ BUFFALO BILLS: Detroit is now down to Drew Stanton at QB after Stafford separated his shoulder once again. Megatron will be affected by the switch but lets face it, all the Lions can and will do is pass...except in this game. Buffalo has the WORST rush defense in the NFL and face a speedy back in Jhavid Best who is just getting healthy from turf toe. Given the Lions pass defense is 21st and face a good passing team as of late, there is the possibility the Lions fall behind in the second half and are forced to abandon what should be an effective run game. The Lions are not much better against the rush ranking 25th. CJ Spiller could have his breakout game here in an effort to prove he is better than Best which many scouts and analysts compared him to before the draft. Best has definitely been the more productive one as CJ failed to over take Jackson as lead back. The Bills lost Roscoe Parrish this week and will be down to sensation Steve Johnson and Lee Evans. Look for Spiller to at least have an increased role in the pass game because of this, though he should only be considered a sleeper. On the Detroit side, look for Pettigrew to be heavily involved since the Bills will be effective shutting down Megatron and Burleson. The Bills pass defense is ranked 4th and that is with only 1 interception recorded. Pettigrew will be relied on as Stanton's check down guy and should find some room over the middle.
The Bills get a Detroit team whom are good at finding ways to lose much like themselves. However, the Bills face Stanton now on the road against a tough secondary led by Whitner. Buffalo gets their first win. DET 17- BUFF 27.
FANTASY STARTS: DET: Best (14 for 80 yds. 1 TD/ 4 for 35 yds.) C. Johnson (4 for 55 yds.) Pettigrew ( 6 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
BUFF: S. Johnson (5 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Evans ( 6 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Jackson (15 for 75 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: CJ Spiller BUFF....as stated, I think he has the best game to date in a competition of highly touted future backs. He gets a score here, though should be weighed if you have better options.
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: As if things couldn't get worse for the Bengals, they miss a comeback win vs the Steelers by two yards and now face the Colts 5th rated pass defense. Ochocinco is frustrated and making it known Carson is the source. Given that, you can bet he will be more involved this week. The Colts are vulnerable to multi faceted WR deep teams and face one here against the Bengals 7th ranked pass offense. This will be the focus for the Colts since they will apply a lot of pressure using Freeney while allowing that cover two to keep TO and OchoCinci is not much better either, ranking 21st against the rush. This is what the game should boil down to. Both teams strengths are facing the pass and both are weak run stoppers. Brown had a marginal day last week but Javarris had two scores though he had minimal yardage. Given it was the best rush defense on Monday vs the Steelers, Benson was able to put together some decent runs and will have success here. Since both teams are pass happy, don't be surprised if each one tries to establish the run first and foremost. Both backs are good plays this week and while both teams are solid pass defenders, each does allow those mid range and sideline throws the cover two is succeptable to. The Colts will also be without Collie this week, and Blair White should take his place. The emergence of Tamme has been a welcome but expected addition, allowing Manning to not miss Clark's big plays. On the other side, both Greisham and Shipley have been effective in their roles and will be big parts of moving the chains.
This could be one of the best games to watch this weekend and has a high probability of being a shoot out. The Colts are one of the toughest to beat at home and win this game though the Bengals could surprise. IND 31- CINCI 28.
FANTASY STARTS: BENGALS: Palmer (300 yds 3 TD) TO ( 6 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Ochocinco ( 7 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Benson (17 for 90 yds. 2 TD)
COLTS: Manning (330 yds. 3 TD) Wayne (6 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Tamme (7 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Garcon (5 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Brown (15 for 80 yds 1 TD)
SLEEPERS: Blair White IND and Jordan Shipley CIN....both should be key influences on the game and both will find room to work underneath Ochocinco and Reggie Wayne. Each one has great chances at a score.
NY JETS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS: The Browns seem to be adept at beating winning teams poised to be playoff contenders so here is another possible upset in the works. Mangini gets the chance to spoil both his former teams in consecutive weeks. Cleveland has the 15th ranked rush defense and has allowed an NFL best 1 rushing TD. Where they are weak is versus the pass where they sit at 25th. The Jets 4th ranked run game will have one of the few tests it's faced all year and Tomlinson has slowed a bit in the last two weeks. Tomlinson has to be getting a bit run down by this point which may explain the drop off and remember this is about when Greene started to get involved and take over for Thomas Jones. Sanchez did struggle last week but showed tremendous poise in the final quarter against Detroit. He has better weapons to take advantage of Cleveland's weak secondary and should be the deciding factor. Hillis has been lights out this year and was in beast mode last week. Remember though it was vs New England's 19th ranked D and not the Jets 4th. He should be good for a short score, but he will be extremely limited since Cromartie and Revis can handle Massaquoi and Cribbs without much help over top allowing extra men in the box. The sneaky play here will be Ben Watson who will slip out behind those blitzes the Jets love. Edwards will have some extra fight in him facing his old team.
Cleveland had the talent to beat up on New England whom is not even close to the defense we are used to seeing. The Jets strengths match up well here and pull out an easier win than expected. NYJ 28-CLE 17.
FANTASY STARTS: NYJ: Sanchez (270 yds. 2 TD) Tomlinson ( 15 for 60 yds./ 5 for 40 yds.) Holmes (5 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Edwards ( 6 for 110 yds. 1 TD) Keller ( 4 for 50 yds)
CLE: Watson (6 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Hillis ( 14 for 50 yds. 1 TD)
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ CHICAGO BEARS: Everyone seems to be thinking all is back on track in Childress' club house after beating Arizona, but it was Arizona! The Vikings were 4 minutes from another loss but found a team in as much a mess as they are to come back against. This week they travel to the Windy City and face the 3rd ranked Chicago rush defense and 18th ranked pass defense. Peterson will have a serious time finding room to run and the Vikings longest pass play of the year has been for a wee 37 yards. Guess who they are tied with at the bottom in the shortest long pass play?...Arizona. Where the game gets interesting is what the Bears 22nd ranked pass offense will do vs the Viking 9th ranked pass defense. The Bears have allowed 32 sacks this year and are a miserable 22.9 % converters on 3rd down. Minnesota is 6th against the run and will face Forte who has struggled to do anything on the ground, now ceeding goal line carries to Chester Taylor. Cutler will be beaten up this week but the defense will have it easier since outside of Peterson the only real threat is Harvin. Berrian did step it up last week and is another player facing his former team that will have extra incentive.
Given how we have seen what happens against a formidable pass rush, the Bears chances boil down to Cutler having time to make accurate throws. The Vikings have been quiet on the pressure front all year but seem to have picked it up. Another toss up game here, but I will go with Chicago who comes off a win and is at home. CHI 24-MIN 21.
FANTASY STARTS: MIN: Peterson (16 for 55 yds / 6 for 50 yds. 1 TD) Berrian (5 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Harvin (7 for 70 yds. ) Favre ( 240 yds. 2 TD) Schiancoe (5 for 50 yds. 1 TD)
CHI: Forte (12 for 40 yds/ 6 for 55 yds 1 TD) Knox (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Olsen CHI....Martz shows me he gets it then doesn't....the Bears win when Olsen is involved. Olsen needs to be a key contributor and I think he will be since Cutler will be under pressure often.
HOUSTON TEXANS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGS: Houston allowed Phillip Rivers a monster day with none of his normal starters. Now they face a rested MJD and a pass offense that is 28th but was catching heat before the bye week. Facing the Texan 32nd pass defense will be just what Gerrard needs if there is any rust to be shaken off. MJD and their 8th ranked run attack square off against Houston's 11th ranked rush defense that held Mathews and Tolbert in place last week, but have faltered against tougher backs like Drew. The good news for Schaub and Foster though is that the Jags have allowed the 2nd most rush TD's at 11 and are just as bad versus the pass coming in at 28th. Both defenses like to give up points and this could come down to the end. It will be fantasy heaven for all the big names here.
While the Texans are the more potent offense, they have only two tricks...Johnson and Foster. The Jags come off a bye and we should see MJD as healthy as he has been all year after struggling with injuries in the first few weeks. The Jags will focus on Foster and leave it up to Johnson to beat them. With no Owen Daniels and no true second threat, the Jags pull out the upset. JAGS 34-TEXANS 28.
FANTASY STARTS: I won't even bother since it should be a fantasy feast. Start em if you got em.
SLEEPER: J. Jones HOU...With all the focus on Johnson and a weak secondary, this is the game Jones lives up to his pre-season hype.
TENNESSEE TITANS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS: The Fins were road warriors but have come up short recently. Henne's interceptions have been a big cause of their woes as the Dolphins are -7 in giveaway/takeaway ratio. The run game has found it's footing the last two weeks and Ronnie Brown is all of a sudden fantasy relevant in the Miami 17th ranked run offense. Somehow, despite the turnovers, Miami is 14th in passing even with teams taking away Marshall who is getting frustrated. Now that Henne has been benched Miami will look to stop the trend and it will help this offense be more effective. The Miami Defense will be tested now that the Titans have Moss who if nothing else demands safety help in case he runs a route fully. Keep in mind, Moss may be in great spirits as he is from Tennessee and has already earned praise from the club house. Nate Washington to me is a clone of Britt, just a bit older. The Titans really lost nothing and Chris Johnson will now be even deadlier with teams being forced to pick their poison. Vince Young gets a huge boost with Moss and the Titan 26th ranked pass defense will only get better.
The Titans already were showing they are more than just a run team with Britt and now will have defenses guessing even more. Pennington faces a rough first start here as the Titans are +6 in turn over ratio and have 13 picks with 6 fumble recoveries. TEN 28-MIA 20.
FANTASY STARTS: TEN: Young (240 yds. 2 TD/ 3 carries for 40 yds.) Washington (5 for 80 yds. 1 TD) CJ (16 for 110 yds. 2 TD) Moss (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
MIA: Brown (14 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Marshall (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Bess MIA...he is averaging 5 catches per game and has been a trust worthy option while Marshall gets the attention. Look for a possible sneaky score here.
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ TB BUCCANEERS: Things went from bad to worse for Carolina's 32nd pass offense. Matt Moore is out now, Jonathan Stewart should be out with a head injury and Deangelo Williams is Questionable this week. No firm decision on Clausen has been made yet and Coach Fox hot seat just got hotter. The Bucs on the flip side were one yard away last week from beating Atlanta and sitting atop the division. Their bad taste left from the loss should be relieved this week as their league best 14 interceptions and +6 turnover ratio face an even weaker pass offense left with finding starters in the parking lot. Carolina should be able to keep the Bucs 20th ranked pass game in check but Carolina is 24th versus the run and facing a Bucs run game that has found itself behind Blount. Because of the run game, which is what the Bucs use to set up the pass, look for some success through the air for the Bucs as well. If Deangelo Williams is able to go, he should be the most productive as the Bucs are 30th against the run.
The Bucs handled a healthy Carolina earlier in the year and should win this one at home unless the young team gets cocky.
TB 31-CAR 17.
FANTASY STARTS: CAR: Williams ( 16 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Smith ( 4 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
TB: M. Williams ( 5 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Blount (14 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Benn ( 3 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Winslow (4 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Freeman (260 yds. 3 TD/ 2 rush 25 yds.)
SLEEPER: C. Williams TB...Williams could have relevance here against this weak rush defense.
KC CHIEFS @ DENVER BRONCOS: The Chiefs 20th pass defense showed it's weakness last week allowing Jacoby Ford and the Raiders to come back and win a big divisional game. This week, KC faces another divisional foe and will be tested by Orton and the Bronco's 4th ranked pass attack. The Chiefs will drop extra guys this week making the pass a primary focus since the Broncos are last in rushing and have yet to have a runner hit 100yds in a game this year. The good news for KC is Charles and Jones will run over the Denver 31st rush defense that has allowed 14 rushing TD's. Denver is 6th against the pass so it will boil down to which team's Achilles heel can step up to the challenge. Look for KC to sustain long drives behind the run game to eat up clock and keep Denver from scoring quickly through the air.
Kansas City is the more balanced of the two and we all saw what the Raiders were able to do behind McFadden's career day. While Denver has had a bye week to prep, they don't have run stopping talent. The Chiefs do have talent in the secondary and if they can scheme correctly could keep Denver from scoring o too much.KC 27-DEN 24.
FANTASY STARTS: KC: Charles (13 for 60 yds. 1 TD/ 5 for 60 yds.) Jones (17 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Moeaki (5 for 45 yds 1 TD)
DEN: Orton (280 yds 3 TD) Lloyd ( 5 for 95 yds. 1 TD) Gaffney ( 4 for 60 yds. 1 TD) Royal ( 7 for 75 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Moreno DEN....While he absolutely can't be trusted, he could have a good day as KC focuses on the pass game allowing Moreno some running lanes in a surprising day.
ST.LOUIS RAMS @ SF 49ERS: Both teams head out of bye weeks but the 49ers have had two weeks to gain confidence after beating Denver and seeing they are still in the divisional race as Seattle and Arizona both lost. Troy Smith and the Niners were my sleeper upset picks and delivered vs Denver. I see them delivering here also. SF 9th ranked rush defenses faces S.Jax who can be held in some check when Bradford is on the road. The Rams have not broken the road loss streak and their 7th ranked rush defense will be busy chasing the versatile Gore around the yard. The Rams are a one dimensional team without Clayton and while Amendola has been a bright spot, he lacks the speed to stretch the field which is what the Rams need. SF wins this game and gets back in the thick of things. SF 20-STL 17.
FANTASY STARTS: RAMS: Jackson ( 16 for 55 yds. 1 TD/ 6 for 40 yds.) Amendola ( 6 for 55 yds. 1 TD)
SF: Gore (16 for 75 yds. 1 TD/ 5 for 55 yds.) Davis ( 6 for 60 yds 1 TD) Crabtree ( 4 for 60 yds.)
SLEEPER: L. Robinson STL.....they are waiting for another receiver to step up and Robinson has now had another week to get healthy.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ARIZONA CARDS: Both teams are mirror images of each other except that the Seahawks were finding ways to win. As of Tuesday night Hasselbeck still hadn't been cleared to practice so Whitehurst could be in for another start. Seattle is 29th in passing/29th in rushing. Arizona is 31 in passing and 28th in rushing. Both teams are over 27th in pass defense and only separate in rush defense where Seattle is 18th and Arizona is 27th...See what I mean about mirror images. Though it's obvious without the stats, each team is lacking the diversity it had a year ago, especially Arizona who is a shell of themselves. Derik Anderson should have earned another start and will look to Fitz often as Wells continues with the knee issues. Seattle does have the advantage with Lynch and Forsett at RB and the two will be the center pieces of the offense if Whitehurst starts again. Steve Breaston adds some depth here and may be the wild card that puts Arizona over the hump for the win. ARI 20-SEA 13.
FANTASY STARTS: ARI: Fitzgerald (7 for 110 yds. 1 TD) Breaston (5 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
SEA: Williams (4 for 65 yds.) Lynch (16 for 85 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Forsett SEA....he could see a ton of action sweeping out into the flats on passes making it an easy completion for Whitehurst with YAC potential.
DALLAS COWBOYS @ NY GIANTS: Jason Garrett has been the brides maid for years and gets his crack now. The team likes him and believe in him. Besides that change I am sure Jerry Jones made his voice heard that Felix Jones needed to see more touches to help this 31st ranked rush offense. Dallas has held on to 5th in passing with Kitna but it has decreased Miles Austin's value. Dez Bryant seems to be the most trust worthy start of the bunch. The Giants are one of the better balanced teams, ranking 8th in passing and 3rd in rushing. They face a Dallas team good versus the pass but 22nd vs the rush. Jacobs and Bradshaw will play power ball with the front seven and force Dallas to bring up help and allowing Nicks another game with another TD. While I expect a better showing than last week, the Giants win this one playing ground game football. GIANTS 27-DAL 24.
FANTASY STARTS: DAL: Bryant(6 for 60 yds.) Austin (8 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Jones ( 14 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
NYG: Bradshaw (15 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Jacobs ( 11 for 55 yds. 1 TD) Nicks (5 for 80 yds 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Roy Williams DAL....He' been quiet since Kitna took over and will run those under routes that are one of the few effective plays against the Giants. Not a good start, but has potential if your guys are on bye weeks.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS: The Steelers escaped the Bengals pass attack Monday and get a bit of a reprieve vs the NE 18th ranked pass offense.While not the Pats of old, they are the dink and dunk offense that can be effective. The Steelers are vulnerable vs the pass as they showed again Monday living up to their 24th rank. Against the run however, they are top of the league allowing opponents only 58 YPG. The Pats are 16th in rushing, but have zero fumbles this year. The Patriot defense has been bad vs the run but even worse vs the pass ranking 29th. Their real weakness is on 3rd downs where the Pats allow a league worst 48% conversion rate. New England showed their weaknesses at Cleveland and now slide over to Pittsburgh against a more potent team on both sides of the ball. Pittsburgh wins a tight one. PITT 23-NE 21.
FANTASY STARTS: NE: Brady (280 yds. 2 TD) Woodhead (6 for 60 yds. 1 TD/ 5 rush for 25 yds.) Hernandez ( 5 for 70 yds. 1 TD)
PITT: Roethlisberger: (240 yds. 2 TD) Wallace (4 for 65 yds. 1 TD) Ward (7 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Mendenhall (16 for 90 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: B. Tate NE.....As TO showed, Pitt is vulnerable to the deep middle pass and Tate has speed to burn. He is a good bet to surpass expectations and maybe tilt this game in favor of New England.
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