NOTE: ( ) will denote what tier start the player ranks as....1st tier is a guy you should start no matter what your options, 2nd is a guy worthy of your number 2 spot, and Flex is the lower of the three which carries risk.
TENN: What more could you ask for than the 29th Rush Defense as a cure to CJ's recent tough times. He is a sure fire monster this week and if you're concerned about the last two weeks, don't be. Two weeks ago he faced a Houston team that kept him to 5 yards on 7 carries but he had a third string QB handing him the ball. Houston was able to basically bring 9 guys and contain Johnson. Last week was Collins first game back, and we saw improvement for CJ vs an under rated Jacksonville rush defense. This week he faces the Colts whom are in big trouble and have struggled to stop far lesser backs. Not only that, but the Colts don't have the talent to stack the box and defend the pass in man coverage so this is a prime start for CJ. The only other guy you should look at even considering as a start would be Nate Washington who is their top threat but will be limited because of Collins.
COLTS: As bad as the Colts are against the run, so are the Titans vs the pass. Ranked 23rd, they have made weaker QB's look like Pro Bowlers. This is the game where Manning gets his groove back and both Wayne and Tamme make solid starts again. If you notice, Peyton has become increasingly frustrated with White and the Colt supporting cast and has turned to the guys he knows he can trust, sometimes forcing the ball. He will rely on these two guys all day, and both will score. Also, Colts president Bill Polian has stated that Austin Collie, Bob Sanders, and Joseph Addai will be out for this one.
The Titan defense has been miserable the last few weeks but the Colts have been equally as miserable at putting up scores too. This week things change and Colts win a close one. IND 24-TEN 21.
PLAYOFF STARTS: Reggie Wayne (2T), Jacob Tamme (1T), Peyton Manning (1T), Chris Johnson (1T) .
BROWNS @ BILLS:
BROWNS: The Bills are the worst rush defense in the NFL which makes monster Peyton Hillis my top RB for week 14. There is no reason he should be the most productive RB this week given nobody has been able to stop this guy. If you have Ben Watson, he is the only other must start guy and has quietly been a top fantasy TE throughout the year.
BILLS: The Browns are 20th vs the run and Fred Jackson continues to be one of the most undervalued RB's in fantasy. He is a solid start, but the problem is that the Browns are also 20th vs the pass. If Fitzpatrick gets a hot start, this could limit Jackson's value a bit though he is virtually a sure thing to score at least one TD. He will give you double digits, but depending on who your options are this week is one of those guys who may give you a tough time in deciding which to start. I consider him a solid #2 RB who will finish about 10th among RB's this Sunday. I also see Steve Johnson as a must start since Evans will be lining up across from Whitner and has the tougher match up. This could also be one of Johnson's better days and would see him amongst the top 10 WR's this week.
While Hillis will have a field day here, the Bills are a more balanced team offensively which will keep Cleveland on their toes. BUFF 28-CLE 20.
PLAYOFF STARTS: Peyton Hillis (1T), Ben Watson (1T), Fred Jackson (2T), Steve Johnson (2T).
BENGALS @ STEELERS:
BENGALS: Their misery continues last week as they continue to find ways to lose each week. The most concerning point last week was how Ochocinco was held to zero points almost till halftime and how he did not produce much more until garbage time. T.O. did have a score, but he too was somewhat limited in producing throughout the game. Granted this was all against a top pass defense, but the combination of Palmer's accuracy issues and a lack of cohesiveness all year make your Bengals very untrustworthy. This week they face a much weaker secondary, but the Steelers have the top rush defense and will be able to contain the under achieving Benson without bringing help into the box. This will leave some extra help in coverage against both Ocho and TO. Look for average yardage from both and a decent chance at a score for both if the Bengals are able to get into the red zone.
STEELERS: The Bengals are decent vs the pass, but are 24th vs the run which makes for a great day coming for Mendenhall. Heath Miller looks like he will be held out due to a concussion he suffered on Sunday night, so you can bet Mendenhall will be used a bit more in the pass game as well. This should also benefit Hines Ward who runs those intermediate routes and will probably see more targets as a result.
While this is always a fun game to watch and will be a closer one than expected, the Steelers should have no problem taking it. PITT 31-CINCI 24.
PLAYOFF STARTS: Ochocinco (3T), T.O. (3T), Benson (Flex only) Ward (2T) Mendenhall (1T) Wallace (2T)
PACKERS @ LIONS:
PACK: After last week's dismantling of the 49ers, you were hopefully fortunate enough to pick up James Starks who looks like the lead back from here on out. He is a far better option than Jackson and should have no problem running all over the Lions 25th rush defense. While the Lions are middle of the pack vs the pass, we all saw what GB did to a SF team with better talent at the corner position. All your Packers warrant starting spots this week and Starks is the safer play over Jackson who carries no value at this point.
LIONS: Simply put, the only guy you should be willing to play this week is Megatron. Given what is on the line however, take into consideration he will be facing Woodson most the game and will see double coverage all day. When he's not covered by Woodson, it will be Tremon Williams who is quietly having a stellar season and even outplaying Woodson to this point. So much so that the Packers have extended his contract. Burleson is a definite no play and Megatron should not be considered a top tier guy this week. You gotta start him, but keep your expectations in check. Don't even consider starting Best despite his decent performance last week.
The Pack are in the thick of things right now and will not be victims of playing down to the competition this week. GB 34-DET 17.
PLAYOFF STARTS: Rogers (1T) Jennings (1T) Driver (3T) Starks (2T) Calvin Johnson (2T)
GIANTS @ VIKINGS:
NYG: Bradshaw seems to be trustworthy again, but he will be facing a Vikings team that has gone 2-0 under Frazier and is playing up to expectations. The Vikes have moved up to 4th vs the run and will be one of Bradshaw and Jacobs tougher tests. Given that Manning is limited with his weapons still and all the Giants can really do is run, look for the Vikes to stack the box and shut down the Giants run game. This will leave Manningham and Manning as the primary offense, but the connection is far from the one he has with Nicks and things could sour quickly if Manning has an off day. While Manning is most likely the QB 2 on your team, really look at your other options based on match up and see if he is worth the start. As for Bradshaw and Jacobs, Bradshaw is the one you want to take a risk on, but don't expect a huge day from him either.
VIKES: Favre will practice Thursday and coach says if he can throw then he can play. Either way, Tavaris has Rice and Harvin owners comfortable with him after last weeks performance. Problem here is the Giants are 2nd vs the pass and 7th vs the run so this will be a war of attrition. Despite the Giants solid pass game, there will be holes for the Vikings to find. The Giants rarely face a team with as many weapons as the Vikings and this isn't the Childress Vikings. This team will take shots with nothing to lose and catch the Giants off guard on a few plays. Look for Harvin and Schiancoe to get the numbers in the pass game since they will find space in the middle of the field and Harvin has the versatility to line up at multiple positions to create a mismatch. Peterson will be held in check for the most part, but should be good for a score with about 70 yards.
This should be one of the best defensive games of the week barring a Jets like collapse and the Vikings multiple talents offensively help them squeeze out a close one at home. MIN 20-NYG 17.
PLAYOFF STARTS: Harvin (3T) Peterson (2T) Schiancoe (2T) Bradshaw (2T) Jacobs (Flex)
BUCCANEERS @ REDSKINS:
TB:What little resistance Legarette Blount would have faced against the 28th ranked Redskin rush defense evaporated with the Haynesworth suspension this week. Blount could wind up as a top ten back overall for this weekend. Mike Williams is a sure fire start this week also against the Skins 29th pass defense though he will see a lot of Hall in coverage. However, Hall is not the speedster he once was and will get caught. Freeman is probably your back up QB but will have to be strongly considered moving into your starting line up if you have a starter like Eli Manning, Flacco, Palmer, etc. Freeman makes the move from the 2nd tier group to tier one this week.
WASH: The Bucs top ten pass defense took a hit this week, losing Aquib Talib to injury and now will be forced to put rookie Myron Lewis in Nickel packages. This will also have E.J. Biggers step into the lead corner role and will square off against Anthony Armstrong. Believe it or not, I think this is actually a good match up for the speedy Biggers whom is a very able corner with the ability to handle Armstrong. Also, he will have safety Sean Jones as help over the top. This week it will be Santana Moss who is the one to trust more as he squares off against Rhonde Barber and will only have the inexperienced Corey Lynch as help over the top. This should be the side to exploit, and Moss should be able to get a score and some decent yardage. Where the Bucs struggle is in their 26th rush defense. Still, Williams or Torain are not great plays since the Bucs were able to keep both Ray Rice and Mike Turner in relative check the last two games and have looked very good vs the rush. As most Redskin games, the scoring will take place through the air, and though nobody here is truly trust worthy as a start, I would error on the side of Moss if you have to use a Skin this week. Avoid it if possible though due to the inconsistency week to week fantasy wise.
This is a game that could easily go either way despite the fact Tampa is the more disciplined and talented team. TB 21-WASH 20.
PLAYOFF STARTS: Legarrette Blount (1T) Mike Williams (1T) Freeman (1T) Moss (2T) Armstrong (Flex) Williams, Keiland (Flex)
FALCONS @ PANTHERS:
ATL: Atlanta is doing what good teams do and finding ways to win on bad days. They escaped another one vs the Bucs and will stay in the division this week. The Panthers oddly enough are a defense that ranks almost exactly like the Bucs, 7th vs the pass, and 28th vs the run. Turner will again be a solid option, I'm guessing somewhere around 100 total yards and a score. Roddy White faces a tough match up for the second week straight, now having a Carolina defense that is good at not allowing the deep ball. Gonzalez did roll his ankle vs the Bucs and it has yet to be seen how reliable he will be. You have to start White and Turner, but trusting anyone else is a risk.
CAR: Despite all of their struggles and weaknesses, anyone who has actually allowed themselves to watch a Carolina game will tell you they are improving. Clausen is still very much a young rookie making all the mistakes, but he is getting better at his reads and shows great accuracy and strength at times. Mike Goodson should still be able to post decent numbers vs the Atlanta 8th rush defense, and even Steve Smith warrants consideration if you are in a bind since Atlanta is 26th vs the pass.
I almost came through on the Bengals upset last week, and for some reason I get the same feeling that the Panthers could upset the Falcons this week. CAR 24-ATL 20.
PLAYOFF STARTS: Turner (1T) White (2T) Ryan (2T) Gonzo (2T) Goodson (2T) Smith (Flex)
RAIDERS @ JAGUARS:
OAK: The last time the Raiders beat the Chargers it set off a win streak that saw the Raiders playing some great ball. After doing it again, the Raiders face a cup cake match up vs the Jags and their 27th pass defense and 17th rush defense. The Jags are a very bad defensive team no matter where they are playing and for the first time in a while, Louis Murphy makes a good start this week. Both McFadden and Bush make great plays this week and each could realistically see a score this week. While Murphy will have his opportunity, Jacoby ford is obviously the safer play of the two. Overall, the Raiders WR core is not one you can trust despite good match ups because of QB play. You never know which Campbell is going to show up and it could kill your WR on any week.
JAGS: The Raiders are 23rd vs the run and MJD has been running like a mad man against 8 and 9 defensive fronts like last week vs the Titans. MJD should be good for two scores in this one and will be a top five RB performer at Sunday's end. At WR it's far from a reliable group you can depend on so avoid them if possible. If you must start one, Thomas is the logical choice since he will not be matched up with Asomugha and has the best chance at some actual production.
This is a game that will be a great ground war and could possibly provide 2 rushers that are top 5 scorers at the position when all is said and done. This will also be a kickers dream, so look for lots of scoring from Scobee and Janikowski. A field goal is the difference here. OAK 31-JAC 28.
PLAYOFF STARTS: MJD (1T) Thomas (Flex) Scobee (1T) McFadden (1T) Bush (Flex) Ford (Flex) Murphy (Flex)
SEAHAWKS @ 49ERS:
SEA: At 6-6 and tied with the Rams, this is a game that has playoff implications? Part of the reason for the 49ers recent success is their return to solid run defense where they now rank 10th, but surprisingly still have issues vs the pass, coming in at 17th. Marshawn Lynch had a beast day last week but will find it harder on the road this week. On the road he has only hit double digits twice out of six games, but they constituted his only two scores of the season until last week. He is a safe flex play here depending on your options but not reliable as one of your two starting backs if you have options. Receiving wise, stay away from the Seahawks regardless what the match up says. Nobody has been consistent and are risky even as a flex play.
49ERS: I told you to be weary of Westbrook last week and his 31 yards proved to be right. While he faces a Seattle team ranked 21st vs the run this week, it remains to be seen if his legs are dependable this far along in his career. He has high risk/reward, but it's the playoffs and do you really want to risk it? Unfortunately you may not have many options and I think he is safest as a Flex play. Both Crabtree and Davis are far more reliable options and each has great match ups against the Seattle 30th ranked pass defense.
The 49ers are playing more to their potential as of late and this is a game that can put them right in the hunt again. SF 20-SEA 17.
PLAYOFF STARTS: Lynch (Flex) Westbrook (Flex) Crabtree (1T) Davis (1T)
RAMS @ SAINTS:
STL: Thankfully for the Rams, the Saints are weak against the run, ranking 15th. S. Jax will carry a heavy load as always and has looked increasingly good the last few weeks. He seems to be running with the power and speed normally seen from him at the start of the year. The Saints do have the talent to man up in the secondary and bring help vs Jackson so it will bring down his potential top five scoring day to the lower part of the top ten when all is said and done. Amendola is not a good start this week so roll with Jax and avoid all your other Rams.
NO: They are finally back to looking like the Saints of old, but barring a neutral zone penalty last week would have lost to the Bengals. Now they are back at home and face a Ram secondary ranked 19th. Great news for Colston, Meachem, Bush and Brees. Chris Ivory also carries good value this week as I expect the Saints to be up by the start of the 4th and pound Ivory to run the clock. If it's a closer game, the Rams do have a decent run defense and can hold him in check, making him more of a #2 RB/Flex play.
The Saints should have no problem with the Rams. NO 32-STL 20.
PLAYOFF STARTS: S. Jackson (1T) Colston (1T) Meachem (Flex) Bush (Flex) Ivory (2T)
DOLPHINS @ JETS:
MIA: The Dolphins pass game has been extra stagnant without Marshall 100% and it looks like Hartline may possibly be headed to the IR. This leaves Bess and Fasano as the only two real options in the pass game, but it's what this does to the run game that hurts most. Without any threat of Henne beating them through the air, the Jets will be able to load up vs the run and stop Brown and Williams whom both are having down years. Each guy is no more than a Flex start if you must but I do think Fasano will carry some value since he will be the only one able to find space and move the chains. After the embarrassment the Jets went through on Monday night you can bet they will be playing their best football especially on defense.
JETS: The Dolphins do have a solid pass defense ranked 5th, and their rush defense comes in at 9 which also is a good unit. The problem is they will be spread thin with the Jets weapons and the Jets should dominate the time of possession, meaning more fantasy points for your Jets players. I like both Greene and LT as starters, with Greene obviously more of a Flex/#2 back and since Edwards will have Vontae Davis on him I like what Holmes should be able to do. You can also bet Rex will have Keller be more involved this week in the hopes of getting Sanchez back on track and completing some easy passes after the 3 pick night vs New England.
There should be no stopping the Jets and they will be prepared to get back on track after a national debacle. NYG 31-MIA 17.
PLAYOFF STARTS: Fasano (1T) Brown (Flex) Keller (1T) Holmes (1T) Edwards (2T) LT (1T) Greene (Flex)
BRONCOS @ CARDINALS:
DEN: The firing of Mcdaniels spoke volumes of where this team is and they were able to use spy gate 2 as an excuse. Though I wouldn't expect a Cowboys/Vikings like resurgence, I do like the match up here since Arizona is incapable of stopping a Pony League team. Moreno, Lloyd and Orton are all top tier starts, while Gaffney makes a solid Flex/#3 WR play who should give you minimum 8 pts.
ARI: Both Hightower and Wells have been huge bombs this year, but they face a Denver rush defense even worse than theirs ranked at 31st. Wells if healthy makes a good #2 RB start and should be good for a score. Fitzgerald is obviously a must start, and I like him here against a banged up Denver secondary. Putting him around 11 fantasy points should be a realistic projection.
Though Arizona is facing one of the few teams as bad as they are, Orton and the spread attack will be too much for the Cards to handle. DEN 28-ARI 17.
PLAYOFF STARTS: Moreno (1T) Lloyd (1T) Gaffney (Flex/3T) Orton (1T) Fitzgerald (2T) Wells (2T)
CHIEFS @ CHARGERS:
KC: This is one of if not the biggest game of the year so far for the Chiefs as they look to hold on to the divisional lead and end the Chargers season. The Chargers have seen them year in and out and know what the Chiefs plan will be which is run, run, run. This time around however, the Chiefs pass game is far from an afterthought as Bowe has blossomed into a top fantasy WR now. The Chargers do have one of the best overall defenses in the NFL coming in at 5th vs the run and 1st vs the pass. This will be a very tough game for the Chiefs so temper expectations. Charles because of his versatility and elusiveness makes a decent #2 RB start, but I would avoid the more commonplace straight running style of Thomas Jones this week. Bowe should also be considered a Flex guy this week with #2 potential. The biggest benefactor here is Moeaki whom will see lots of space as the Chargers LB core focus on keeping Charles contained.
SD: The Chiefs do have a decent rush defense but are 21st vs the pass and guess what the Chargers do well? It remains to be seen if V.Jax is a for sure start or not, but if he is a go it's a top tier start for him. Gates and Floyd if healthy are also top tier starts of course, but I would stop there and not risk Naanee, or Davis if they are go's this week. Tobert will most likely be good for at least a goal line score, but don't expect him to get a ton of yardage vs the Chiefs 12th ranked rush defense.
The Chargers know what to expect this week and need this one desperately. The lack of another true #2 WR is what hurts the Chiefs this week and makes this division one of the more interesting ones to watch. SD 31-KC 27.
PLAYOFF STARTS: Charles (1T) Jones (Flex) Bowe (3T/Flex) Gates (1T) Floyd (2T) Rivers (1T) V. Jax (1T) (If he plays)
PATRIOTS @ BEARS
NE: I've said it before, that these Pats are very reminiscent of the early 2000's crew that were not full of studs but spread the ball around and chipped away at you. Ironic that Branch is back with the team and this is the case. This week, they will face a Bears team which has improved it's pass defense issues but still comes in at at 13th. Brady will of course look to take advantage of the mismatches so like Monday night, expect a lot of Welker, Branch, and Woodhead with a bit of Hernandez. Forget BJE coming close to his performance on Monday as this Bear team will not be primed for the same fate as the Jets. It will be a heavy pass day for NE and Brady who makes a great play this week.
CHI: The Patriots are one of the weaker defensive units in the NFL but The Hoodie is good at one thing week in and out...taking away your teams best player. For the Bears, that is Matt Forte whom really is the base of this offense both passing and running. Expect him to have a tough day and force Cutler to beat the Pats through the air with limited weapons. We should see a heavy day for Olsen who will need to be very involved. Hester warrants sleeper start status if and only if you're in a bind this week. I wouldn't trust Knox this week either since he is likely to see extra coverage.
If the Bears pull this out it will be because of their defense, but the short pass spread attack of the Patriots will be the difference. They are tailor made for the game they are playing with a bunch of speedy YAC guys. NE 24-CHI 21
PLAYOFF STARTS: Welker (2T) Branch (2T) Woodhead (Flex) Brady (1T) Forte (Flex) Olsen (1T)
EAGLES @ COWBOYS:
PHI: While the Cowboys are playing the best ball of the season, they have yet to see a weapon like Vick. The Cowboys are a balance but average defense, prone to giving up the big play and will have a tough time stopping all of the Eagle weapons. Vick with his speed on turf should have another stellar performance as will the rest of your Eagles fantasy players. All make top tier starts.
DAL: Tashard Choice was told he earned more playing time by Garrett and makes a decent sleeper play if your 2nd RB is banged up or has a tough match up. The Eagles are 14th vs the run and 17th vs the pass so this is a game where all starters from both teams will make top tier plays. Give Roy Williams a boost as well now that Bryant's season is over, though in reality this will make it easier for the Eagles pass defense to know what is coming. Samuel should be able to keep Austin to an average yardage day with a score. Look for a heavy dose of Felix Jones and Choice whom both make solid starts this week.
PLAYOFF STARTERS: ALL YOUR EAGLES ARE TOP TIER STARTS! DAL: Jones (1T) Choice (Flex) Austin (2T)
RAVENS @ TEXANS:
BAL: Baltimore is playing the worst pass defense in the NFL....start them all if you have them other than TJ Houshmenzadeh who is far from a playoff start you want to risk.
HOU: Baltimore is 6th vs the run and 11th vs the pass which fits well into the scheme the Texans run regardless. Temper expectations for Andre Johnson, whom has struggled against the better secondaries in the NFL. All eyes will be on him, so expect more of a 2nd tier performance this week instead of his normal big numbers. The guy who should see an amazing amount of work is Foster who will be the only chance the Texans have of winning this game. Schaub also gets a bump down to 2nd tier status as well because of the match up.
The Ravens have enough talent to stop the Texans often enough that the Offense takes advantage of the very poor Houston pass defense. BAL 28-HOU 17.
PLAYOFF STARTS: All BALTIMORE PLAYERS ARE 1st TIER STARTS. HOU: Schaub (2T) Johnson (2T) Foster (1T)
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