CAR: Clausen had his best showing of the year albeit against the Cardinals. Jonathan Stewart is back and produced also but forget about starting him vs. the top rush defense. Steve Smith should also struggle since Pittsburgh will be able to roll extra coverage his way without issue. Look at your possibilities before you think of starting a Panther. Go with a better match up if able.
PITT: The must start here is Mendenhall who will face Carolina's 23rd rush defense. While they did do well vs Hightower, remember the opponent was a team as bad as they are. Carolina is 8th vs the pass and does have a talented secondary, but they will be far from able to shut down all the Steeler weapons. Heath Miller returns this week and should be good for a score. All your Steeler players make solid starts this week, with Mendenhall being a top 5 back this Sunday.
The Steelers lost a tough one last week and need this one. PITT 28-CAR 13.
DALLAS @ ARIZONA:
DAL: Romo went to the IR for the year and Kitna ironically hasn't been much of a drop off fantasy wise. This week he faces the 23rd pass defense and 30th rush defense. Felix Jones is also a great start and should at minimum give you 10 fantasy points this week. Kitna may be a bit held back because of the run game effectiveness, but he will be efficient. Witten has been his favorite target and is a solid start here against a defense that will have more than it can handle. Start all your Cowboys with confidence against the 26th overall defense which has nothing to play for.
ARI: The Boys are 28th vs the pass, but a majority of their issues have come against far better teams with more talent. They are a good defense when facing one dimensional teams like Arizona and will make sure Fitzgerald doesn't burn them this week. Fitz is a good #2/Flex play, but don't expect him to put up great numbers. Breaston is a good sleeper/Flex play this week since he is the beneficiary when teams focus their efforts on Fitzgerald. Past that, I wouldn't trust Hightower vs Dallas' 14th rush defense this week.
Dallas is playing at a higher level and the Cards continue to fall apart. DAL 31-ARI 17.
WASHINGTON @ JACKSONVILLE:
WASH: Grossman seems to have showed us he is far from a downgrade from Mcnabb and has been given the starters role this week also. He returns to his old stomping ground in Florida this week and there may be quite a few Grossman fans in Jacksonville which is close to his college home in Gainesville. The Jags are 27th vs the pass which is pretty much all the Redskins are able to do somewhat well. Jacksonville's 18th rush defense allowed Donald Brown to put up some great numbers last week but I would not trust Torain quite yet. He is a decent start, but not one where I would have a ton of confidence. Armstrong should have another double digit day and is a safe Flex start if you have him. Moss should also be a solid start this week.
JAGS: Put back in their place last week, the Jags return home to face one of the worst overall defenses. However, they are one of the most opportunistic. MJD should have a monster day here and will be a top 5 back by Sunday's end. Both Thomas and Simms-Walker also have top starter potential, but in a championship week the problem is figuring out which one will have the best day. Either one may be worth the gamble but the question is should you gamble on them? I would opt for a safer play if you have one, but if you have a more solid play I would role with it. Gerrard also makes a good start and should be good for 15pts.
The Jags need this one desperately and squeak one out. JACK 24-WASH 21.
DETROIT @ MIAMI:
DET: It looks like Shaun Hill will return this week which boosts the value of your Lions just a bit. The problem is they are facing Miami's 6th pass defense. Miami is also 6th vs the run so don't expect anything from an already poor run game. Megatron is of course a must start, but don't be surprised if he gives you single digits. He faces an injury laden secondary last week in TB and Miami will have all it's studs on the field. Megatron should be your only start but one with lower expectations.
MIA: Detroit's 24th rush defense makes Ronnie Brown a solid play and one which should have him end up as a top 10 back on Sunday. Detroit is 13th vs the pass, but TB's Mike Williams posted a nice day last week despite the Lions knowing exactly where Freeman was looking. Marshall makes a good start here and should score one for you. Fasano should also bust out of his slump and give you good production here. Williams is too much of a risk though has high upside if he gets a decent number of carries.
Miami has all but been eliminated but the Lions are one of the worst teams on the road despite their win last week. MIA 30-DET 24.
SAN FRANCISCO @ ST. LOUIS:
SF: Things keep on getting worse for the 49ers and the loss of Gore has obviously killed Vernon Davis' and Crabtree's value. Forget about starting any 49er back against St. Louis who is tied with Pittsburgh for least rushing TD's allowed. Despite the decent match up in the pass game, I would avoid starting your 49ers. S.Jax will be able to help the Rams control the clock which only further limits your 49ers values.
STL: SF is 7th vs the rush, but they struggle against top tier runners and when they don't it's the pass game that kills them. Amendola warrants a look as a Flex play this week, but the only safe bet is Jackson who has gotten his all year long despite seeing extra men up front. Jackson will be a top ten back by Sunday's end so start him with confidence.
St. Louis should lock up the division this week. STL 20-SF 13.
TENNESSEE @ KANSAS CITY:
TEN: KC is 13th vs the run and 19th vs the pass but play a bit above their ability at home. The Titans have been sputtering on offense as of late, but CJ is of course your top option. While I expect a solid game out of him this week, I don't see gaudy numbers. 12 pts. should be about the total you get which is a solid game by any standards but a bit low for CJ. Kenny Britt also makes a solid start and I believe has a top 10 day at WR. The Chiefs will be unable to stop both Britt and Washington while defending against CJ. Look for this to be a productive day in the pass game for the Titans.
KC: Charles has continued his second half beast mode last week and should do well here against the Titan 17th rush defense. The Titans are not as solid on the road as they are at home, and Charles has had some great games at home. Thomas Jones also makes a great start as your RB 2 since he has had double digit fantasy games in 4 of 6 home games and scored 9 pts. in one of the other two. The Titans are even worse vs the pass at 26th and pose good match ups for Bowe and Moeaki. Start all your Chiefs here in an important game which has the Chiefs trying to hold on to the divisional lead.
KC 30-TEN 17.
NY JETS @ CHICAGO:
CHI: This should be one of the better games this Sunday but the big question is how hard will the Bears play given they have now locked up their division. Atlanta has locked up the top seed in the NFC so there really isn't much use in the Bears taking chances on injury just to win a game for pride. I would keep expectations very low for all your Bears given the weather and the possibility the starters have a chance at being benched early. Not only that, but they face one of the best overall defenses in the NFL. Forte makes a somewhat decent start, but given the situation I would only trust him as a Flex this week.
NYJ: The Jets are officially playing for a wild card spot and luck out in facing a Chicago team that may take the day off if the Jets get ahead early. Despite this, Tomlinson will face the 3rd rush defense of Chicago early which will limit his scoring. If the Bears decide this is one worth playing for, bump down your expectation overall for the run game. If not, then both Tomlinson and Greene will have good value. The Bears are 17th vs the pass which is their weak spot and Sanchez has to have gained his confidence after a good showing in Pittsburgh las week. Santonio Holmes makes a great start here and if weather isn't bad should wind up as a top 10 WR Sunday. Edwards may get his token 50 yards and a score here also so he is a good #2WR/Flex guy.
The Jets should put up a good fight here but in the end may see a team that pulls their starters.
NYJ 24-CHI 20.
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO:
NE: New England has sealed their division, but will provide some effort since they are still fighting the Steelers and Baltimore for top AFC seed should those teams win both games and the Pats lose. If the Pats have a heavy lead by the 3rd then look for Brady and company to get sat. Otherwise, all your Pats make decent plays here. Primarily, you are starting BJE regardless as he faces the worst rush defense in the NFL. Green Ellis has a top 10 RB start here and will be good for a score. Start your Pats with confidence as you normally would.
BUFF: Fitzpatrick has caught fire again and makes a solid play vs one of the weaker but opportunistic pass defenses. NE will focus it's energy on F. Jackson and scheme the secondary to roll coverage Steve Johnson's way. Both guys make mediocre starts this week despite the Pats 23rd overall defense.
In the end, the Pats know it's a guaranteed first round bye if they win and will play it hard. The Bills do play NE tough at home and it's closer than expected. NE28-BUFF 24.
BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND:
BAL: The Ravens will be giving an all out effort as they fight with Pittsburgh for the divisional title. Cleveland is 25th vs the run and Ray Rice is looking unstoppable the last few weeks. Rice has another top 5 RB day Sunday with a good shot at 2 scores. Cleveland is pretty good vs the pass, but lack the depth to stop all the Ravens weapons especially with Heap returning. Cleveland will focus on Boldin with success, but Heap and Mason will burn them. Start all your Ravens.
CLE: Hillis has actually become human the last three games and now faces Baltimore's 5th rush defense. Hillis did go for 144 yards vs Baltimore last time, but that was week 3. Watson is the biggest benefactor when Hillis is kept in check, but produces regardless as this team's top catch threat. Watson is a must start as always and so is Hillis, but with Baltimore playing lights out of late, temper your Hillis expectations. Another sub 10 pt. game is very likely.
Baltimore will not let down with so much on the line. BAL 20-CLE 14.
HOUSTON @ DENVER:
HOU: Both teams are playing for nothing but pride this week and both are equally as bad on defense. Denver is 31st vs the run, setting Foster up for a monster day. Foster should earn the top spot as the most productive RB on Sunday. Unfortunately I face him so it kills me to write that. Denver hasn't been much better vs the pass, and Johnson has victimized far better secondaries so look for a 90 plus yard with a score day from him. Schaub is also a solid start and don't be surprised if Jacoby Jones has a nice day as well, though he's only a start in very deep leagues and depending on your options.
HOU: Both teams are playing for nothing but pride this week and both are equally as bad on defense. Denver is 31st vs the run, setting Foster up for a monster day. Foster should earn the top spot as the most productive RB on Sunday. Unfortunately I face him so it kills me to write that. Denver hasn't been much better vs the pass, and Johnson has victimized far better secondaries so look for a 90 plus yard with a score day from him. Schaub is also a solid start and don't be surprised if Jacoby Jones has a nice day as well, though he's only a start in very deep leagues and depending on your options.
DEN: Tebow had a good debut and it gets better against the worst pass defense in the NFL. Houston is 9th vs the run so don't expect big things from Denver's run game. Moreno may be held out with a rib injury regardless which will but some extra pressure on Tebow seeing multiple blitzes. Drop the value of Lloyd this week, though he will be good for a score. Lloyd will make a decent #2 WR start, but he does come with big risk despite the match up. Caution on the side of error and start someone else if they have a better match up.
Denver has too many issues to keep up with Houston's potent offense. HOU 34-DEN 21.
SAN DIEGO @ CINCINNATI:
SD: The Bengals are a decent secondary at keeping long balls in front of them, but injuries on their offense will allow the Chargers to win the battle of possession and time making all your Chargers good starts this week. While the weather does cause some concern against a speed team like SD, they have too many weapons for Cinci to cover and two Running Backs both capable of handling the load. Cinci is 22nd vs the run so both Matthews and Tolbert actually have good value here. There hasn't been much word on Gates, though rumors are he may be done for the season until the playoffs. Vincent Jackson is a must start of course and if you have Floyd, he will benefit from the extra attention on Jackson.
CINCI: T.O. has been shut down for the year, leaving a less than 100 percent Ochocinco as their lone stud WR. SD has the 1st ranked pass defense though and will easily shut down Chad and keep him from burning them. The good news is the Bengals will again be playing from behind so he does have value as a possible garbage time score. SD also has the 2nd ranked rush defense and Benson struggles against good teams so I would use other options. Ochocinco is the only play here and he is borderline bench worthy at that.
If weather is good, SD rolls on the Bengals. If not, they still win but just by a closer margin.
SD 37-CIN 27.
INDIANAPOLIS @ OAKLAND:
IND: The Colts gained an important win for their playoff race and their confidence as well. Manning lost Collie for at least this week and Wayne will have Asomugha on him most the day. Oakland however is 26th vs the run and Donald Brown seems to be healthy finally after having a solid day vs the Jags. Expect Brown to see a lot of action as will Tamme, who will be needed and will get back to posting big numbers here. Bump down Wayne's value and Garcons a bit. They are both still good starts, but not #1 this week. Brown and Tamme will do the damage here. Peyton is of course a must play but will have a good but not great day.
OAK: The Raiders run game must be salivating at facing the 28th rush defense. McFadden is running with force and should have no problem getting a 100 yard with a score day. Indianapolis is decent vs the pass but the effectiveness of Mcfadden will open things up a bit for Jacoby Ford. Ford is the play here since Murphy continues his unpredictability week to week. Zack Miller is a decent play at TE but still looks a bit rusty after being injured for so long.
The Colts will be crafty enough to pull this one out. IND 24-OAK 20.
NY GIANTS @ GREEN BAY:
NYG: The loss to Philly must've killed the Giants spirit as they hope for a wild card spot and face competition. Manningham was a surprise start and abused Philly. He should see plenty of targets this week, but it will be on Manning to get him the ball under pressure. Green Bay is a very aggressive defense and will be in Manning's face all day. The Packers to struggle vs the run (19th) so Bradshaw and Jacobs are solid starts as a #1RB and Flex respectively. Trust the run game here, but be cautious using Manningham or even Nicks vs this 3rd ranked pass defense.
GB: Flynn looked better last week but has his work cut out for him vs the Giants 2nd ranked pass defense. You really have to start Jennings because of his YAC ability, but look hard at your options when it comes to starting Driver. Jackson and Starks shouldn't fare much better against the 10th ranked rush defense so look elsewhere.
The Giants are crushed so mentally who knows what team will show up. They are still alive in the wild card race and can help things by winning here. NYG 27-GB 20.
SEATTLE @ TAMPA BAY:
SEA: The Bucs have returned to their piss poor rush defensive ways again and the loss of so many defensive starters is much to blame. Lynch makes a good #2 RB start here and should be good for a score. Despite losing Aquib Talib, the Bucs are still a talented pass defense and with only Mike Williams to defend, they should be efficient again. Avoid Williams if possible, especially with Hasselbeck playing so poorly lately. Start Lynch and that's it.
TB: Seattle is 21st vs the run and 29th vs the pass so start all your Bucs with confidence. Aurellious Benn missed another big play TD so if you are in a bind at the Flex/#3 WR position he could be worth it though is a risk. Start your Bucs.
Tampa is still in the race but must win. TB 23-SEA 17.
MINNESOTA @ PHILADELPHIA:
MIN: Favre may be done for the year, and past short throws and running, Webb is showing all the traits a rookie does. AP was held out last week and depending on how he feels could be held out this week. The Vikes have nothing to play for so if he is even somewhat ailing, look for him to be benched. Harvin also takes a major hit as does Rice. Really consider other options here since the Eagles will lock up their division with a win and Giants loss.
PHI: Easy....Start all your Eagles against a team that has mailed it in.
PHI 38- MIN 17.
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA:
NO: The Saints lost a tough one last week and face an Atlanta team that has locked up the division. Since this is a rivalry game I would look for Atlanta to play solid but be cautious with their players if New Orleans gets up by the 4th quarter. Fortunately for NO Atlanta is 20th vs the pass but the only guy you can trust is Colston at WR. Meachem is too up and down as are Henderson and Moore. Ivory is still questionable and Bush with Thomas will face a solid Atlanta rush defense ranked 10th. Brees and Colston are the two you want here. Everyone else is a gamble.
ATL: NO is good vs the pass but 20th vs the run so Turner should have quite a solid day, and finish in the top 10 at RB on Sunday. White is of course a must start as well, but temper expectations of Ryan and Gonzales whom will find the Saints secondary a tough opponent.
New Orleans has their season possibly on the line while Atlanta is secured. NO 27-ATL 24.
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