c SF: So Alex Smith made a solid return last week and looked pretty good. Problem is it was against a weak opponent and how many times have we seen this from Smith throughout his career? He gets benched, comes back and has a good game, only to remind us he is Alex Smith the next week. It will be more of the same this week as he faces the SD 1st ranked pass defense. He and Crabtree were out of sync last week and even if they get it together it wont matter here. While Crabtree was a must start a few weeks ago, you hopefully have better options this week. He does have value since the 49ers will be passing a lot due to the score, but the Chargers don't need to worry about the run and will sit back on Smith all day long. Vernon Davis is the best start here, but don't expect a big day. Expect Crabtree and Davis fortunate if they hit double digit fantasy points.
SD: The Chargers destroyed a much better team last week and now face the 49er 19th ranked pass defense. The 49ers are actually 9th vs the run but dont let that impact starting Tolbert or not. Rivers pass abilities allow Tolbert room since defenses are on their heels and this week is no different. The bigger issue is the return of Matthews who will steal some carries and possibly a score. Turner seems hell bent on keeping him involved, so only trust Tolbert as a Flex or at best a #2 RB. If between a guy like Hightower or Felix Jones and Tolbert, i would go with them. Antonio Gates looks like he will again miss time and you wont know till kickoff if he is a go so have reserve options ready. At receiver, start Floyd and Jackson if they start and both are solid starts this week. Rivers should also end up as a top 5 QB performer on Sunday.
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The Chargers are now only a game back from the Chiefs and should roll on the 49ers whom have no offense without Frank Gore.... SD 34-SF 17.CLE BROWNS @ CIN BENGALS:
CLE: The Browns situation is one of the few which week to week is the same review. Start Hillis and Watson and that's it. Hillis should have an especially great day vs the Bengals 24th Rush Defense but Watson may be a bit of a gamble since the Bengals are 13th vs the pass and will be able to slide extra coverage to Watson. Still, he is a better start than most TE's. Past these two, don't even think of starting another Brown. CIN: T.O. has returned and is blaming the ownership and coaches for their losing ways. Guess they won't be renewing his contract at season end. Benson makes a solid #2 RB start this week vs the Browns 23rd Rush Defense. This will help depending on weather conditions with the pass game. Palmer is far from a trustworthy start any week but if weather is decent he may be worth the gamble. The Browns are 15th vs the pass and given their hands will be full with Benson, both TO and Ocho make good starts this week. Each should score and at least give you 70 yards at minimum.
The Bengals get one of their few wins since they face a one dimensional opponent. Though that one dimension is pretty damn good. CIN 28-CLE 20.
WASH REDSKINS @ DAL COWBOYS:
WASH: The Skins are adept at finding ways to lose but face a team that will allow their 9th ranked pass game to shine. The Cowboys are 27th vs the pass and there really won't be much the Skins can do but throw. If you have Moss or Armstrong, each warrant consideration as WR#3 or Flex plays with good upside. Dallas is 17th vs the run but no Washington back has produced much the last few weeks so avoid them. This will be an air show, and one that could see Moss or Armstrong with multiple scores. Problem is figuring out which one. DAL: While this is a game that will produce plenty of fantasy points, it actually will hurt your Dallas players values a bit. Washington is 28th vs the pass and the run which means there will be success both through the air and ground. The Boys still like to run the ball and is Felix Jones and Choice are effective as I think they will be, it could hinder the pass stats a bit for your WR core. You have to start both Austin and Williams given the match up but temper your expectations if the run game gets going early. Kitna also makes a solid start this week.
The Cowboys still remember week one but Washington is far from what they were then. DAL 28- WASH 21.
HOU TEXANS @ TEN TITANS:
HOU: The Texans must be feeling the hangover after a tough loss on Monday but the Titans are a perfect cure. The Titans are 26th vs the pass and equally as bad vs the run. Start all your Texans this week and Jacoby Jones makes a good play as a WR #3 if you have a tough match up there. Arian Foster should be in beast mode again so look for another productive day from him. Start all your Texans confidently.
TEN: Britt took over for Moss last week so its safe to say Moss is a risky play. With Britt back, it also makes Washington another risky play so look for alternatives though Houston is the worst pass defense in the league. Houston last kept CJCJ and still worth a score. Figure him for about 12 points this week.
Houston seems to have the Titans number and round two of Finnegan vs Johnson will be fun to watch. HOU 24-TEN 17.
JACK JAGS @ IND COLTS:
JAGS: Believe it or not, this is a huge game for both teams and one that could help the Jags lock up the division for all intensive purposes. Though the Colts are 29th vs the run, the Jags pass game is ineffective and won't have the Colts worried. The Colts are actually 5th vs the pass and have the talent to man up on the outside and bring extra men up on MJD. Does it matter? MJD will find the holes and has been doing it even with extra men in the box so start him with confidence. Mercedes Lewis is the only other fantasy start here so forget about starting any Jags WR's.
IND: This will be another good week for Payton and the pass game as the Jags rank 29th vs the pass and have made lesser teams look good. Don't buy in yet on Garcon. He has had a very Simms-Walker type year, up and down and riddled with injury. Against the Jags he has a good shot at back to back performances, but I expect Tamme to be involved more after last week and Reggie Wayne to have a monster day. Obviously any Colt RB is untrustworthy so go with other options since it will be a highly effective pass day for Manning.
Though the Jags sit atop the division they are not as good as their record and it has been more the result of a slumping Colts team than any other reason. Colts are back after last week and should put the Jags back in their place. IND 31-JAX 20.
KC CHIEFS @ STL RAMS:
KC: The Chiefs missed Cassel last week as they were pounded by the Chargers who loaded the box vs the run. Cassel will be back this week and faces the Rams 23rd rated secondary which bodes well for Bowe and Moeaki as solid starts. Charles and Thomas will both get back on track vs the 12th rated Ram rush defense which is underrated but vulnerable. The fast turf should see some nice runs for Charles while Thomas gets a goal line carry for a score making him a decent #2 RB start.
STL: KC is in the bottom half vs the pass and 15th vs the run which is about the only thing STL does well. Expect the focus to of course be on Jackson but the man is a beast and will get his regardless how many men KC brings up front. The sleeper here will be Amendola who is worthy a look if you have some tough #3 WR/Flex match ups. Trust SJax and risk Amendola only based on your needs.
While this will be a better game than expected, KC gets Cassel back and the Rams will have to respect the pass game leaving the weak side open for the taking. KC 20-STL 17.
BUFF BILLS @ MIA DOLPHINS:
BUFF: The loss of Lee Evans should hurt Steve Johnson the rest of the way now that teams will be able to play more man and cover one since there is only one pass catching threat to worry about. That means extra help vs Jackson up front. Add to that the fact Miami just shut down a much more potent Jets team last week and now face another division rival. I would seriously think about starting either guy vs the Miami 7th ranked Pass and Rush defenses this week if you have options.
MIA: The Bills are a solid pass defense team but they are bottom of the barrel vs the run which means good numbers for Brown and Williams whom have struggled all year. Williams is a good start this week as a flex guy but Brown is a sure fire #2 RB with #1 potential in your line up. While Marshall will be the primary focus for the Bills corners, the run game should allow him at least a red zone look as the Bills stack up on the run in that situation. He is a decent start as your #3 WR.
Miami has to be feeling confident after last week and won't let down since this is another divisional game. MIA 24-BUFF 13.
PHI EAGLES @ NY GIANTS:
PHI: A major showdown with playoff implications, the Eagles will be looking to all but lock up a divisional title. It won't be easy however vs the Giants 2nd Pass defense and 5th Rush defense. While I would lean towards lowering expectations of your Eagles given the opponent, there is a good chance the fact they will have the ball often helps things. The Giants will be without Smith and Manningham which leaves only Nicks as the lone legit pass threat. The Eagles should be able to cause a good amount of 3 and outs so expectations will be met.
NYG: As stated, Manning is down to Nicks and you can bet the Eagles will bring the house against the run every play. The Eagles are 11th vs the run as it is and with no need to respect the pass it will make for a long day for Manning. While you can't sit Bradshaw this week, he will give you decent numbers but far from what the norm has been. Jacobs gets the bigger bump down given he is a more north/south guy which falls right into the Eagle's scheme.
The Eagles catch a break with the Giants injuries and lock up the division. PHI 20-NYG 17.
DET LIONS @ TB BUCCANEERS:
DET: The Lions are all about the pass and have a tough one here vs the Bucs 6th pass defense. The Bucs are 27th vs the run but given Best's ongoing toe issues and the lack of a run game you're not taking the risk anyway. Megatron will have a clear hiegth advantage over Rhonde Barber and makes a solid start since he is bound for a jump ball in the red zone. Brandon Pettigrew will also have a decent day since the injury plagued Bucs also lost Quincy Black last week.
TB: Thankfully for the Bucs defense, the offense should be able to put together long drives vs the Lions 17th pass defense and 22nd rush defenses. Mike Williams is a good start after a 14 yard performance last week and Blount has a good chance at putting up his best rushing day yet. Add Winslow as a solid start and if you're in a tight spot and have Aurellious Benn he has quietly become a big play threat for the Bucs and has sleeper potential.
The Bucs injury issues may make this closer than expected but should still pull it out. TB 24-DET 20.
ARI CARDINALS @ CAR PANTHERS:
ARI: The Cards finally face a team as bad as they are this week but Carolina has been improving and has the 11th pass defense. Tim Hightower is the guy you want to start if necessary but only if he's your best option. Fitzgerald will of course get his but consider him only a #2 WR option this week. Breaston will give you his normal numbers but should cap out at about 8 pts this week.
CAR: The only guy on this team to consider is Goodson vs Arizona' 30th rush defense. He could have a Hillis like day and I wouldn't be surprised to see him score twice. Steve Smith really didn't help things calling out Clausen this week but it can't get any worse. Don't consider Smith even against the 24th pass defense of Zona. Clausen is too unpredictable.
This is a toss up, but the ball control behind Goodson should be enough to win this one for Carolina. CAR 20-ARI 13.
NO SAINTS @ BAL RAVENS:
NO: The Saints went from no backfield to a crowded one now that Thomas is back. However, keep tabs on Chris Ivory's health after he strained his hammy last week. This will be another tough test as the Saints travel into cold weather and face the Ravens 14th pass and 8th rush defense. The weather should slow down Colston and Bush a bit so while they are good starts, don't expect monster days. Really weigh your options if you're thinking about Ivory,Thomas,or Meachem. Brees will also see the effects as well so expect about a 14 point day from him.
BAL: NO has the 4th ranked pass defense and are good at not allowing the deep ball so Mason takes a bit of a hit this week after probably winning your first round game for you. Boldin should be more reliable to give you his normal numbers with his underneath routes which are more effective vs a defense like this. The solid guy this week is Rice who faces the NO 16th rush defense. He will be extra involved in the pass game also and should wind up among the top 5 RB's in fantasy this week.
The last time the Saints went into cold weather in Cinci they should have been beat had the Bengals not self destructed. BALT 20-NO 17.
ATL FALCONS @ SEA SEAHAWKS:
ATL: The Falcons have been all but unstoppable this year and now face Seattle's 31st ranked secondary. Both Gonzo and White make top tier starts and Jenkins also could have a sleeper day if in a bind. Turner faces their 20th ranked rush defense and is also a top tier start. Atlanta should easily win the battle for time possession meaning plenty of touches for your Falcons.
SEA: Mike Williams has been banged up and now Deion Butler has been lost for the season leaving Tate as the lone healthy option for Seattle. Expect Forsett to see a lot of action in the pass game but to top out at 10 pts if he's lucky. Lynch has been hitting a groove, but against the Atlanta 13th rush defense, he will come back to earth. Avoid Seattle players if able.
The only thing that could derail the Falcons this week is the weather. ATL 31-SEA 13.
DEN BRONCOS @ OAK RAIDERS:
DEN: Orton is still putting up decent numbers despite his struggles but faces Oakland's 12th pass defense on the road. Oakland seems to be getting back on track defensively despite last week's debacle and their 26th rush defense does have the ability to play better against a rusher like Moreno. Moreno was effective catching out of the backfield last time these two met and is a risky Flex play who could do well or just as easily fall flat. You have to start Lloyd but know that he too could easily give you single digit points. All Broncos are risky starts this week despite the head coaching change and a divisional foe.
OAK: Despite the let down, Mcfadden had a great game and had a career day vs the Broncos 31st rush defense last time they played. Mcfadden is another top 5 start this week and Bush could make a solid #2 option if you are struggling for a start decision. Passing wise, all the Raiders make high risk high reward plays because of Campbell's inconsistency week to week. Start them, but only as Flex or #3 WR plays.
Oakland is still in the hunt while the Broncos are eliminated. They would still love to play spoiler but the talent isn't there defensively. OAK 24-DEN 21.
NY JETS @ PIT STEELERS:
NYJ: As if last week wasn't enough, the Jets now travel to Pittsburgh and face the top rated rush defense. Sanchez is a different guy without the run game and despite the Steelers 25th pass defense, he will struggle again here. Greene is coming back from a neck injury and isn't a good play regardless. LT has value as a pass catcher and is really the only start worthy guy here. Holmes and Edwards are start worthy but risky given Sanchez' mind set and recent struggles.
PIT: The Jets 3rd rush defense should be able to shut down Mendenhall this week but will have some issues in the pass game. The return of Miller helps Ward this week and will be more than the Jets secondary can handle. Wallace has the best match up if Cromartie is assigned to him as Cromartie is prone to giving up deep balls despite his ability. Ward will have a decent day curling and slanting under Revis but the sleeper day will go to Randle-El and Miller whom will both have the best match ups.
The Jets and Steelers are going in different directions. PIT 20-NYJ 17.
GB PACKERS @ NE PATRIOTS:
GB: While Rogers still has a chance to play if he passes his concussion testing, the weather and opponent don't bode well for the Packers regardless. Starks has been a solid addition since returning but if the Rodgersless Pack couldn't score on Detroit it won't change here. Unfortunately, the values of Jennings and Driver are tied to Rodgers so wait and see till Friday before you plan on starting your Packers.
NE: The short game has everyone remembering the 07 team and for good reason. Brady has been as effective as he has since and spreading the ball around to everyone. Its keeping defenses off balance and allowing for the best match ups to take advantage of the situation. While GB is 8th vs the pass, expect a lot of short unproductive drives from the Pack if Rodgers is out which means plenty of touches for your Pats.
Given the situation, NE has no problems if Rodgers is out. The Pats have not turned the ball over in 5 straight games. NE 24-GB 17.
CHI BEARS @ MIN VIKINGS:
CHI: Last week was one to forget for the Bears and you could make the case that it was the weather. This week they face a very balanced and good Vikings defense. The good news is the Bears offense could be on the field often if the Vikes have to start Webb again which means Forte will get plenty of touches. Both Knox and Olsen make decent starts, with Knox as a #3 WR start. Cutler is too unreliable and given the opponent and possible weather conditions it may be best to start another option if you have one.
MIN: Easily put, if Webb starts, bench your Vikings outside of A.P. Even then, temper expectations as the Bears will leave man coverage on Rice and Harvin and take the risk with Webb beating them rather than letting AP beat them.
Chicago faces the Vikings at the right time. CHI 24-MIN 13.
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