Tuesday, September 21, 2010

WEEK 3 PREDICTIONS

CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE: Easily overmatched and on the road, Flacco should have his way with the secondary. Clevelands run defense is better than the perception and could hold Ray Rice under control. Seneca Wallace should be getting another start after a good performance last week, and Cribbs should touch the ball more if the Browns have a shot to compete. Hillis and Harrison will face their toughest opponents yet and given their low rushing totals so far, they should have no place to go. The Ravens have yet to hit their stride Offensively and this could be just what they needed to get things moving. After being man handled again by the Bengals, look for the Ravens to come out strong and not let up. Baltimore wins 28-13.



FANTASY STARTS: CLEVELAND- Cribbs (5 for 70 yds 1 TD) BALTIMORE- Rice (14 for 65/ 4 catch for 35 1 TD) Boldin (6 for 85 1 TD) Mason ( 4 for 50 1 TD) Flacco (240 yds. 2 TD)

SLEEPER: McGahee...he could steal some carries once this one gets out of hand as well as a goal line steal.



CINCINNATI at CAROLINA: The Bengals are averaging 340 yds/pg versus Carolina's 257. Given the Bengals ability to hold Baltimore down last week, the defense should have it's swagger back and make Clausen's first NFL start one to forget. Steve Smith has a deep bruise on his wrist though mild injuries don't seem to hinder him. Chad Ochocinco has a fractured rib and could be a late scratch given the opponent. Carolina doesn't have the horses to compete with top tier teams this year and Clausen will make a few mistakes that turn into points. The Bengals should feed Cedric Benson a good portion of touches in an effort to get him into a rhythm after a slow start. Bengals 23-Panthers 14.



FANTASY STARTS: CAROLINA- Steve Smith (5 for 70 yds 1 TD) Williams (19 for 80 1 TD)

CINCINNATI- Benson (18 for 90 1 TD) Palmer ( 260 yds. 2 TD) T.O. (7 for 90 1 RD) Ochocinco could get those numbers if he plays the duration.

SLEEPER: J. Greisham...If Ocho is given some time to rest, Greisham could be utilized often.



DALLAS at HOUSTON: These two teams are actually close statistically in YPG and Passing but it all separates when it comes to PPG. Dallas is averaging a poor 13.5 compared to Houston's 32. This may be a must win game for Dallas but Houston proved they can score with anyone and are the real deal.Last week was their first ever OT win. The Defense will allow Dallas to score better than the previous two games which can make this a shoot out until the end. Andre Johnson's ankle will be a big factor in how this game turns out. The Texans become very one dimensional without him and even if he isn't at top speed it's better than not having him on the field. Dallas will have to get their run game going and control the clock, keeping the ball out of Schaub's hands. If Dallas loses I would not be surprised to see Jerry Jones pave the way for a bye week firing of Phillips. This team is portraying all the signs of poor prep and some new blood could be what they need to spark some fire under them. Roy Williams has all but lost the job to Dez Bryant, whom has done more in two games than Williams last six. Contingent upon the health of Johnson, Houston wins 28-24.



FANTASY STARTS: DALLAS- Dez Bryant (7 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Austin (9 for 110 1 TD) Romo (290 yds. 2 TD) HOUSTON- Foster (18 for 95 1 TD/ 3 for 25) Johnson ( 8 for 100 yds. 1 TD) Schaub ( 300 yds. 2 TD)

SLEEPER: Felix Jones...The Texans have yet to face a speed back and Jones could provide them some problems. J. Jones (Hou)...He was able to display a bit of his ability against Washington and given Johnson's ankle issue they may look to ease his work load giving Jones a chance to shine.



SAN FRANCISCO at KANSAS CITY: The new Arrowhead is as hostile a place to play as the old one, just ask the Chargers. The Chiefs always take it to another level at home and after a great start will be playing at full speed. The lack of a pass game outside of Vernon Davis should help the Chiefs focus in on Gore who will be coming off a short week where he carried a heavy load. KC is in a good postion to win only if Cassel can do better than he has and get his receivers involved early. KC has yet to face a good LB corps like the Niners, whom will be able to keep the run game in check. The way Rivers and Seneca Wallace were able to pass on KC could turn out being the secondary key to the game. Alex Smith looked a lot better on Monday night and although they lost, I think it may have been a slight motivator confidence wise knowing they can come back when the game is on the line. Look for Charles to get more work here as Weiss follows the Saints game plan and sends Charles running routes more often than normal. The speed of the SF linebackers will prove tough for Thomas Jones' style. Although this game is a toss up, Alex Smith has shown he is playing at a high level for him and we have yet to see Cassel scratch the surface of a good outing. This is where he does, and it pays off. KC squeaks it out 17-14.



FANTASY STARTS: KANSAS CITY-Charles (10 for 45/ 4 for 50 yds. 1 TD) Bowe ( 4 for 60 yds. 1 TD) SAN FRANCISCO- Davis ( 7 for 85 1 TD) Gore (14 for 70 yds/ 5 for 55 1 TD)

SLEEPER: Crabtree, SF...Both Naanee and Cribbs had success againts this secondary and Crabtree knows the bust birds are circling.



PITTSBURGH at TAMPA BAY: This game is one of the more intriguing games due to the fact that it is the only game on Sunday where two 2-0 teams will square off and that it should be closer that what you would think given the recent history of these two teams. The Steelers are winning with Defense and Dixon was proving to be the QB they expected to groom for the future. However, after a miniscus injury Dixon is out and either Leftwich or Batch is in. The Bucs know Leftwich well, but Batch should be the front runner due to health. The Bucs had success shutting down the Carolina run game and the Defense in general seems to be playing as fast as they ever have. The Steelers have so far kept teams with more explosive backs in check, so it will be on the Bucs passing game to try and put up points through the air. Mendenhall should be called on often to allow whoever the QB is to settle in on their first start. This should be where the Buc D focuses and forces Pittsburgh to beat them through the air. At the risk of making a bias projection, the Bucs pull this one out 16-14.



FANTASY STARTS: BUCS- Winslow (7 for 50 1TD.) Mike Williams ( 8 for 60 1 TD)

STEELERS- Mendenhall (18 for 90 1 TD) Ward (6 for 70 1 TD)

SLEEPER: Stroughter (TB)...The Bucs will need to spread the ball around and Stroughter could provide a big game out of the slot where the Steeler secondary weakens a bit.



DETROIT LIONS at MINNESOTA: Who in the world would have expected the PPG stats to be 23 vs 9.5 in the LIONS favor! I have a hard time believing the Sidney Rice was that integral a part of this team that would have the Vikes averaging only 185 yds per game. Their slow start looks to me more the result of guys playing out of position and a lack of chemistry due to the Favre holdout and injuries. The Vikings get the match up they need in the Lions, whom have lost Nate Burleson to his yearly ankle injury and Matt Stafford to his yearly shoulder injury. Though missing both men, Shaun Hill has stepped in admirably and Detroit is a team that will fight until the end. Jhavid Best is proving to be this years best rookie back so far and could give the Vikes some headaches. Regardless, the Vikings run game will be able to control the clock and Favre should find a rhythm finally with Harvin and Berrian. Harvin is nursing a hip strain, but it didn't seem to hamper him too much last week. Pettigrew had a great outing last week and should get more looks with Burleson out. Given how well the Lions are playing, the Vikings could just as easily lose this game as they could win it. In the end, the Vikings home stand proves dividends and they pull away 28-17.



FANTASY STARTS: LIONS- Best (16 for 50 yds/ 4 for 55 1 TD) Johnson (7 for 80 yds. 1 TD)

VIKINGS- A.P. ( 16 for 90 1 TD/ 4 for 35) Harvin ( 6 for 72 1 TD) Favre ( 250 yds. 2 TD)

SLEEPER: Bryant Johnson...someone will need to step up in Burleson's place and help take pressure off Megatron. Johnson had some good games last year and could sneak up on the Vikings.

BUFFALO at NEW ENGLAND: New QB, same result. The Bills are a rebuilding team who need more help than they can draft in one year. They are young and better days are ahead. Normally a competitive game by the Bills, I think the swap to a new QB making his first start on the road here hurts. Lee Evans has been a complete let down though not his fault and Chan Gailey has not really brought the spark everyone hoped for. Lynch needs to be traded to get some help fast. New England is back on track in what should be an easy day. New England 31-17

FANTASY STARTS: NEW ENGLAND: Uhh, everyone. BUFFALO: NOBODY!! With Lynch getting all the work last week and Gailey now promising Spiller will get a bigger work load with Fred Jackson. Until there are only two RB's in this town there is nobody safe starting.
SLEEPER: Roscoe Parrish: He has seemed to get the little bit of work amongst the WR and could post some good numbers since Buffalo will be throwing a lot.

ATLANTA at NEW ORLEANS: Mike Turner is expected to be back and active this week but pay close attention to how much work he gets on Thursday practice. Overall, this is a bad sign for Atlanta who overworked Turner last year and wound up missing him in some games. Matt Ryan is proving to be a one dimensional QB who needs more weapons. Gonzales has maybe hit the end of the road and no Mike Jenkins forced Ryan to target White a ridiculous 25 times? Atlanta is an easy team to scheme for and New Orleans should have a fairly easy game at home. Atlanta will make the score look closer than the game actually is. Fantasy wise, no NO WR has looked really great or put up the big numbers. I think the loss of Bush will hurt more than people think. Chris Ivory may be a good waiver claim but Deshaun Wynn should get all the initial work, but it will be limited since Pierre Thomas can will be a work horse. NO 28-21.

FANTASY STARTS: ATLANTA: Turner/Snelling ( 17 for 80 yds. 4 for 46 1 TD) White (9 for 110 1 TD) NEW ORLEANS: Thomas (19 for 90 yds. 6 for 45 1 TD) Brees (290 yds. 3 TD) Colston ( 6 for 90 1 TD) Meachem (5 for 80)
SLEEPER: Chris Ivory...He showed explosiveness in the pre-season and if healthy could get a few touches that are made to count.

TENNESSEE at NY GIANTS: This should be one of the better games to watch because this game should say a lot about how these teams deal with adversity going forward. The Giants were dismantled by the Colts and Brandon Jacobs meltdown led to a meeting with management. The Titans benched Vince Young and last time he was benched it wasn't good. Coaches seem more comfortable than ever benching then starting QB's but I don't see Young as a guy that appreciates it. Then again every competitive QB wants in there regardless. Chris Johnson should have a good but not great day as the Giants force VY to beat them with the throw. Giants win a close one, 20-17

FANTASY STARTS: NY GIANTS: Manning (250 yds 2 TD) Nicks ( 5 for 80 1 TD) Manningham (4 for 60 1TD) TITANS: CJ ( 17 for 96/ 3 for 40 1 TD) Nate Washington ( 4 for 65 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Brandon Jacobs....He is bound to get a bigger workload after supposedly asking for a trade and making his frustrations known. The Giants know they need him for the long season and will appease him by giving him 10 to 12 touches and maybe some goal line work.

WASHINGTON at ST.LOUIS: The Redskins have shown more Offense than anyone anticipated given their lack of receiver depth. Larry Johnson was released yesterday, opening the door for Keiland Williams who could steal the lead back job if given a real opportunity. Portis won't be healthy all year and the Redskins may have a diamond in the rough here. The Rams have been the best losing team to watch so far with Bradford and Mark Clayton surprising critics. The Rams will beat some unsuspecting teams this year and it may just start this week. Portis is a bit banged up and two hard fought games should have Washington's aged team a bit slower than normal. Upset of the week, St. Louis wins 21-17.

FANTASY START: WASHINGTON: Cooley (5 for 68 1 TD) Moss (7 for 95 1 TD) McNabb (225 2 TD) ST. LOUIS: Clayton (8 for 110 1 TD) Jackson ( 16 for 90 1 TD/ 6 for 60)
SLEEPER: Bradford...Washington has given up a lot of points through the air and Bradford could have a statistically great game fantasy wise.

PHILADELPHIA at JACKSONVILLE: Looks like the locker room won here as Reid came out on Monday naming Kolb the starter then flip flopped naming Vick the starter on Tuesday. The players will rally around Vick who really does give them the best chance to win for now. I do agree with Mr. Clayton form ESPN though in believing this is a bad long term decision. Kolb is the future and what happens when Vick wets the bed? While Kolb looked weak in both pre-season and game 1, lets see what happens as the season wares on. For now, Vick is a top five QB start this week. Mike Simms-Walker was finally involved last week though most of it was garbage time. I have been preaching that something is wrong with MJD since pre-season. He has had an amazing amount of work the last four years and that 500 carry mark is when backs start to show signs of over use. I believe MJD is playing hurt and while he will be an every day start, he will not come close to his top five draft status. This could be a closer game than expected as Jacksonville always seems to play their A game at home. Philadelphia wins though 24-21.

FANTASY STARTS: PHILADELPHIA: Vick ( 230 yds. 2 TD/ 4 for 50 yds) D. Jackson ( 6 for 85 1 TD) McCoy ( 16 for 75 yds/ 4 for 40 1 TD) JACKSONVILLE: Simms-Walker (7 for 90 1 TD) Gerrard ( 250 yds. 2 TD) MJD (16 for 90yds. 1 TD) M. Lewis (6 for 70 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Mike Thomas...not necessarily a sleeper, Thomas should produce as most of the attention is on the right side of the field and MJD.

INDIANAPOLIS at DENVER: The Broncos will play an emotional game coming off the death of receiver Mckinley. How they respond is anyone's guess and there would be no criticism should they fall flat under the circumstances. I do think they play a hard fought game and give the Colts a run for their money. The return of Moreno and Buckhalter is good news as the passing attack will become more balanced. Orton loves to spread the ball around and the run game return adds another dimension. He has quietly thrown for 295 and 302 in 2 games. The Colts picked apart the Giants last weekend but they will face a stiffer challenge as the Broncos secondary is much better than the Giants. Pierre Garcon's disappearing act has been tempered by Austin Collie's emergence and the run game had it's first decent game last week. If the Broncos come out strong amid their adversity, this could be an upset. Broncos 31 Colts 28.

FANTASY STARTS: INDIANAPOLIS: Wayne (7 for 90 yds 1 TD) Collie ( 5 for 70 yds) Manning (300 yds 3 TD) Addai (16 for 80 1 TD/ 5 for 40 yds) DENVER: Orton (310 yds. 2 TD) Thomas (7 for 90 1 TD) Moreno (15 for 80 yds 1 TD) Royal ( 6 for 70 1 TD)
SLEEPER: J. Gaffney and P. Garcon...with the attention on Demaryus Thomas' breakout game and Royal being a known threat, this could be the game where Gaffney sneaks in a score again. The Broncos know what to expect form the Colts, and Garcon may be the key to Manning winning this one. Both receivers get out of the basement here.

OAKLAND at ARIZONA: Cable makes the smart move and Gradkowski is the starter. This benefits Louis Murphy the most since they seem to have a trust with each other. Being a TB fan, I see a lot of Jeff Garcia in Gradkowski whom served as his mentor somewhat. The return of McFadden helps take the pressure off a weak pass protecting Offensive line and Heyward-Bey's best game of his young career could mean good things to come. The Cards are in trouble and must be re-thinking the release of Leinart. Wells doesn't seem quite ready to play yet, but Hightower has taken the lead back role effectively, but the problem is with Anderson and the passing game. Fitzgerald will get his numbers, but looks so far like he will not reach his elite fantasy status. Especially with Asomugh covering him. Oakland wins this game behind a shifty Gradkowski and the run game, 21-14.

FANTASY STARTS: OAKLAND: Murphy (7 for 85 1 TD) Miller ( 6 for 70 1 TD) McFadden ( 22 for 120 yds. 1 TD) ARIZONA: Fitzgerald (5 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Hightower (17 for 80 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Breaston...who will need to have a good game and should have plenty of targets while Fitz is blanketed.

SAN DIEGO at SEATTLE: The Chargers bounced back after and upset loss in KC and Rivers could end up right behind Rogers as the league's top passer. Malcom Floyd met expectations last week, but the ankle injury to Matthews while minor could be something to watch long term. Mike Tolbert looks to be who they will turn to should he have issues and may get more carries this game than expected. Norv already stated he will split goal line duties with Matthews and could pose big problems for opposing Defenses. Seattle came back to earth last week and the lack of any production from their run game is allowing Defenses to key on the pass. While always tough at home, San Diego just has too many options and should win a high scoring affair. SD 34-28.

FANTASY STARTS: SAN DIEGO: Floyd ( 6 for 90 1 TD) Naanee ( 5 for 70 1 TD) Gates (6 for 80 1 TD) Matthews ( 17 for 70 yds. 1 TD) Rivers ( 320 yds. 3 TD) SEATTLE: Hasselbeck (290 yds. 2 TD) Williams ( 6 for 80 1 TD) Carlson ( 6 for 50 yds 1 TD) Forsett ( 13 for 55 yds/ 6 for 50 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Deion Branch...Branch is always a gamer at home and Hasselbeck trusts him.

NY JETS at MIAMI: Miami is coming off a big win at home against the Vikings but Henne still has yet to prove he is reliable as a passer. Marshall's stock will continue to be in doubt until Henne hits his stride. Ricky Williams has been non existent as Ronnie Brown has shown knee surgery has not hampered him. The lack of a number two threat out wide will keep teams in games against them. Their top rated pass defense will keep them competitive if Henne can produce. The Jets will not start Braylon Edwards after another DWI which kills their potential even more to score through the air, making them one dimensional. Even if Edwards plays this is an easy game for the Dolphins to plan for. Shonn Green and L.T. will be used heavily and I think the Dolphins follow suit with Williams getting more carries. Cromartie should shadow Marshall taking the Dolphins pass game away.

FANTASY STARTS: JETS: Greene (17 for 80 yds. 1 TD) Tomlinson ( 15 for 60 yds./ 6 for 50 yds. 1 TD) MIAMI: Brown ( 18 for 90 yds. 1 TD) Williams ( 13 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: Fasano and Keller....Both teams will need to move the ball somehow through the air and their TE are the only decent second options as Cromarie and Davis hold each teams WR studs at bay.

GREEN BAY at CHICAGO: The Bears are riding high at 2-0 silencing the critics who doubted Cutler's abilities. Forte has bounced back after an off year and looks to be heavily involved all season long. This week will prove just how legit their Offense is facing a Defense that is much stronger than Detroit's or Dallas'. This game will come down to the Bears D ability to hold Rogers in some kind of check so that the game doesn't get away from them too fast and allow GB to sit back. While being able to use Forte as a pass catcher is a great weapon, I actually think the smarter move is to pound the ball with the run and keep the ball out of Rogers hands. If Chicago can win the posession time then they have a great chance. Regardless though, it doesn't take Rogers much time to score and the Bears have given up an average of 30 PPG. In the end Green Bay's Defense keeps Chicago from pulling it out. GB 31-28 CHI.

FANTASY STARTS: GREEN BAY...all the normal players in a game where Finley, Jennings, Jackson, and Driver score. CHICAGO: Forte (18 for 70 yds 1 TD/ 7 for 60 yds) Knox (6 for 70 1 TD) Cutler (270 yds. 2 TD) Hester ( 4 for 60 yds. 1 TD)
SLEEPER: G. Olsen...Martz used Olsen last week with good results and I think he will need to do the same while Matthews is busy following Forte around. Olsen could easily take the stats projected for Hester or Knox.

1 comment: